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Sky News AU
04-05-2025
- Politics
- Sky News AU
Federal Election 2025: Bad to worst for the Liberals as the state of the party's electoral wipeout revealed
Labor has bucked the trend of first term governments and extended its lead at the Federal Election, but the full reality of the Liberal Party's wipeout is becoming increasingly clear. At the latest count, Labor has secured 86 seats to the Coalition's 37, which will deliver Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a whopping majority of at least 11, while another 17 are too close to call, The result represents the Liberal Party's worst election result since 1946 when the Coalition picked up just 29 seats to the Chifley government's 43. But Sky News Chief Election Analyst Tom Connell has revealed the full extent of the Coalition's plight, revealing they will be lucky to end up with 45 seats in the Parliament. 'Right now, 37, they're not going to be happy with that, that's a dire tally,' he said. 'That will tick up, there are a few they are likely to win, but nothing certain just yet. Labor, of course is at 86, that's likely to tick up as well. 'The maximum we are getting to from here on current numbers, barring some sort of a surprise, would be 45 seats - 45 is the maximum from 56, a new record low for the Coalition.' The Coalition remain in contention in a few seats, as counting continues around the country. Monash in Melbourne's east is leaning towards the Liberal Party as Mary Aldred looks to retain the seat with a 2.3 per cent swing, leading by 9,973 votes. Longman in Brisbane's north is too close to call with Liberal's Terry Young narrowly ahead by 220 votes, as Labor's Rhiannyn Douglas has a swing of 3.2 per cent and looks likely to gain the seat. Flinders on the Mornington Peninsula in Victoria looks to be retained by Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie as she leads by 17.584 votes, however, there has been a 4.9 per cent swing to Independent Ben Smith. Bradfield in Sydney's Upper North Shore is tightly contested with Liberal Gisele Kapterian leading by 9,122 votes, however, Independent Nicolette Boele is still in the race with a swing of 4.3 per cent. The electorate in Forrest, south of Perth, has seen a slight 1.7 per cent swing to Labor, although the Liberal Party will most likely retain the seat with Ben Small leading by 8,307 votes. The Coalition will want to retain as many seats as possible in what is already landslide victory for the Albanese government. Peter Dutton went into the election campaign needing to pick up an extra 19 seats to win government. Instead, Labor gained 13 Coalition-held seats, allowing them to increase their majority government. It wasn't to be for Mr Dutton in his own seat of Dickson either, which the now former opposition leader conceded to Labor on Saturday evening. Mr Dutton lost the seat he had held for more than two decades following a double-digit swing to Labor;s Ali France following a double-digit swing.
ABC News
03-05-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
How Labor carved a path to landslide victory
Australian voters have delivered Anthony Albanese "a win for the ages" that should see Labor with more seats than at any point in its history. More even than Kevin Rudd or Bob Hawke after their most famous victories. Albanese outperformed the polls and the pundits' expectations on a historic night that will leave the Coalition interrogating where it all went so very wrong, with Peter Dutton "fired into the Sun" and many other senior figures and potential future leaders wiped out. The Labor landslide has also overshadowed the ongoing rise and rise of independents in Australian politics. Let's break it down. A map shows the huge primary vote swing towards Labor. Labor built its win on the foundations of a significant bump in its primary vote. This map shows the change in first preference vote for Labor in each electorate compared to 2022. (Every seat is represented as a hexagon, so they're all the same size.) Labor clawed back important ground in Queensland, and bagged huge swings in Tasmania and key marginal electorates in South Australia and Western Sydney. While it slipped a little in Western Australia, that came off an extremely high vote in 2022 and didn't inflict any real damage. The night's key shift was how the Coalition haemorrhaged votes, even in comparison to its bruising 2022 loss. The Coalition's primary vote was down across the board. Its primary vote share fell more than 5 per cent. The map tells the story — from north to south, east to west, the trend was basically universal. A disaster for the Coalition. Support for independent candidates once more surged across the country, and many of the independents who stormed parliament in 2022 have improved their winning margins. 'All these 'teals' won from second place last time,' says ABC election analyst Antony Green. 'This time they're winning from first place.' And there's a decent chance they could yet be joined by a couple of extra crossbenchers. The outcome of these voting trends translated to a dramatic shift in who won what. Rather than colouring in every seat, here's a look at all the seats that are changing hands this election, or where the incumbent is behind in the current count. The colours represent the party that has won or is ahead. Labor has had one of its biggest victories ever. Peter Dutton and the Coalition came into the campaign needing to pick up an extra 19 seats to win government. Instead, Labor has seized 13 Coalition-held seats to massively increase the size of its majority, while also taking two off the Greens in Brisbane. Where the changes happened Peter Dutton's electoral strategy targeted "forgotten Australians in the suburbs", and his campaign featured stop after stop at petrol stations to sell voters on his cut to the fuel excise. But in Mr Dutton's home city of Brisbane, the Coalition has suffered a stunning repudiation in exactly the kinds of areas he was targeting. The Liberal Party's night went from bad to worse when it became clear the leader himself would lose his own seat, Dickson … Queensland delivered seats to Labor in spades. … as well as Petrie and Bonner – two more electorates on the outer fringes of the city. Longman and Forde are also looking likely to go Labor's way. In the inner city, Labor is projected to pick up Brisbane and Griffith from the Greens, significantly eroding the minor party's gains from 2022. Despite moderate swings against it, the Coalition has held most of its seats in the rest of Queensland. Leichhardt was the only regional electorate to change hands on the back of a 9.7 per cent swing to Labor. The story was much the same in rural NSW, aside from two notable exceptions. Calare and Cowper are both tight races. One was ex-National Party MP Andrew Gee, who appears likely to retain his seat of Calare as an Independent. And the other was independent Caz Heise leading in Cowper. In Sydney, the Coalition once again failed to win back any of the outer-suburban seats it was targeting. The swing wasn't as extreme in Sydney. Instead, Labor scooped up three marginal seats in the suburbs – Bennelong, Banks, and Hughes – on the back of swings of at least 6 per cent in each one. Hughes has been held by the Coalition for the past 29 years, while defeat in Banks means losing senior frontbencher David Coleman. Sydney's three existing teal independents are on track to be joined by a fourth in Nicolette Boele. After narrowly missing out in 2022, Boele is ahead in Bradfield by a narrow margin. In Canberra, another Climate 200-backed independent, Jessie Price, is looking good to pick up the seat of Bean from Labor. Some are pointing to a "Pocock effect" as a factor in the surprise result, as the popular ACT senator is also on track to roughly double his vote compared to 2019. The Melbourne seats of McEwen, Menzies, Deakin, Chisolm and Aston have all gone to Labor. In Melbourne, the Coalition had high hopes of capitalising on an unpopular Labor state government to take outer seats like Aston, Chisholm, and McEwen. But in the end, not only did that trio stay in Labor hands … … but the seats of Deakin and Menzies turned red, further weakening the Coalition's leadership stable. Shadow housing minister Michael Sukkar and Keith Wolahan — previously thought of as possibly part of a future Liberal leadership – will not be returning to parliament this term. The seats of Bass and Braddon fell to Labor. Further shocks were in store in Tasmania, as Bass and Braddon swung hard to Labor. And the bad news for the Coalition didn't stop there, as Labor strengthened its hold on the seat of Lyons with a 10 per cent swing. Labor has gained the key South Australian seat of Sturt. The only seat changing hands in South Australia has gone to Labor in a historic win. The loss of Sturt, a blue-ribbon Liberal seat held since 1972, leaves just two Coalition seats in South Australia. Metropolitan Adelaide is now a sea of red. The seat of Moore voted in a Labor MP. Peter Dutton travelled to Perth on the final day of the campaign, signalling that the Coalition possibly hoped to make inroads in what was already a Labor stronghold. But it was a similar story to other capital cities, as the only seat to change hands was Moore — and yes, it's gone to Labor too. However, Labor is in a tussle with the Coalition for the new electorate of Bullwinkel. All of this adds up to an electoral landslide. As of early Sunday morning, the ABC's election computer has Labor sitting on 85 seats, with another seven leaning its way. The electorate-by-electorate results for the entire country. As one side celebrates a historic win, the other is left to wonder where it all went wrong. In 2022, when Peter Dutton was on the cusp of becoming Liberal Party leader, one of his colleagues told the ABC that Mr Dutton was a "very decent man" but had a terrible perception problem that the Liberals would need to address immediately. "I'm sure people will say, 'He's a man who looks like the other bloke, only worse,'" the MP said. Three years on, after a crushing election loss, those comments look prescient. And the Liberal Party will be asking itself why it didn't listen. Credits:
ABC News
03-05-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Anthony Albanese and Labor claim landslide election win as Peter Dutton loses seat
Voters have delivered Labor a landslide election win, giving the government a second term that has defied early polls and offered a punishing repudiation of the Coalition. ABC News is forecasting that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government will add seats to its majority in the House of Representatives. Election essentials: Fighting back tears when he addressed supporters, Mr Albanese flashed his often displayed Medicare card and vowed he would be back at work tomorrow. "We take out this task with new hope, new confidence and new determination," he said. The biggest political victim of the result was Liberal leader Peter Dutton, who lost his seat to three-time Labor challenger Ali France, with the Coalition's primary vote slumping to record lows. In an election centred on the cost of living, Labor has not just held but gained seats at the expense of Liberals, some of whom were regarded as possible future leaders. The government has not only retained mortgage-belt seats, but claimed Coalition electorates in the outer metropolitan suburbs. Nationally, Labor's primary vote increased and there were historic highs for minor parties and independents, with the possibility of new additions in the next parliament. The Greens face a nervous few days in three seats, having already lost one. But the party will remain a key crossbench force in the Senate, where despite the Coalition likely going backwards, Labor will need support to pass legislation. Coalition seats sink to new low Coalition MPs and senators called for calm as early results rolled in, pinning their hope on pre-poll votes falling in their favour. But by 8:30pm, ABC chief election analyst Antony Green said he could not see a path to victory for the Coalition, and forecasted likely gains for Labor. "We did not do well enough during this campaign, that much is obvious tonight, and I accept full responsibility for that," Mr Dutton told party supporters in Brisbane. Labor started the campaign notionally with 78 seats, two more than it needed for a majority. The Coalition was already on record-low numbers in the House of Representatives, and will fall further back after this election. In winning, Mr Albanese becomes the first leader since John Howard to lead their party to two election victories. The Coalition pinned its hopes on wins in mortgage belts throughout Sydney and Melbourne, where indebted households have felt the cost-of-living crisis the harshest. But Labor is on track to not just hold these seats but also make gains in Coalition-held seats in Queensland and Melbourne's east. "This is a time of profound opportunity for our nation," Mr Albanese said. "We have everything we need to seize this moment and make it our own, but we must do it together." Queensland and Tasmania turn red The sunshine state has offered little reward for Labor in recent elections, but the ALP scored wins throughout outer-suburban areas that surround Brisbane, including Mr Dutton's Dickon and Bonner, Petrie, Forde and the Greens-held Griffith. It also capitalised on long-serving Liberal Warren Entsch's retirement, with former professional basketballer Matt Smith. Labor also ran up victories in the two Liberal seats across the top of Tasmania, including the outspoken opposition backbencher Bridget Archer, who had a flair for bucking her party's stance. The Liberals no longer have any lower house MPs in Tasmania. In South Australia, Labor's gain of Christopher Pyne's once-safe seat leaves the Liberals with just two lower house seats in the state. "This is a win for the ages," Treasurer Jim Chalmers told the ABC. Read more about the federal election: Want even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025 Catch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on Independents largely maintain seats It was a night of mixed fortunes for independents and the Greens, despite the surge in third-party votes. Voting will take days, if not weeks, to determine the final composition of the parliament. The teal independents, having swept through Liberal heartlands in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth three years ago, look set to hold their seats, with the possibility of new community independents joining their ranks. In the ACT seat of Bean, there was a wafer-thin margin between independent Jessie Price and Labor's David Smith, who could be the government's only casualty. National-turned-independent Andrew Gee leads in his rural NSW electorate of Calare, while regional independents Alex Dyson in Victoria's Wannon and Caz Heise in NSW's Cowper look to fall short again. It will likely take days, if not longer, to work out other seats where independents could be in with a chance. Among the seats still yet to be called is Sydney's Bradfield, which was seen as one of the teals' best chances. Independent Nicolette Boele, who ran at the last election, was tied with Liberal Gisele Kapterian, who is running for the first time. ACT independent senator David Pocock was comfortably re-elected to the crossbench. Independent Dai Le, who won the Western Sydney seat of Fowler from Labor in 2022, was only just ahead of the ALP's Tu Le late last night. Tough night for Greens It is a nervous wait for the Greens, including leader Adam Bandt. One of the Greens' most high-profile politicians, Max Chandler-Mather, lost his seat to Labor. In neighbouring Brisbane, incumbent Stephen Bates looks set to lose, with Labor well placed to win the seat ahead of the LNP. The Coalition expected to win back Ryan, which neighbours Mr Dutton's seat, but early votes have the Greens ahead. The party capitalised on changing demographics in the northern NSW seat of Richmond, which takes in Byron Bay, where it was ahead on primary votes but likely to fall behind on preferences. If the Greens win, it will be at the expense of Labor frontbencher Justine Elliot. It fell well short in the Melbourne seat of Mcnamara, home to one of the country's biggest Jewish populations, but fared better in Wills, where it will likely fall short after preferences. 'Soul searching' for Coalition The Coalition hoped it could capitalise on the unpopularity of the long-serving Victorian Labor government. But former Victorian Liberal state director Tony Barry suggested the Liberal Party could be reduced to just one seat in greater Melbourne. He offered a scathing assessment that "soul searching" was in order for the Coalition, having started the campaign with eight of Victoria's 38 seats and hoping to gain up to 10 seats. Photo shows Brett Worthington looks at the camera wearing a blue blazer and glasses Sign up to the ABC Politics newsletter with Brett Worthington Labor was bracing for hits in its Western Sydney electorates, where the Israel-Gaza conflict prompted community independents to run in safe ALP seats. Electorates with high numbers of Chinese Australian voters — a key demographic that moved against the Coalition at the last election — again stuck with Labor, costing Liberal Keith Wolahan his seat in Menzies, and helping Labor retain Bennelong, which had notionally moved to the opposition following a redistribution. The ALP also held off Coalition challenges in the NSW Hunter region, which was thought to be a possible home to opposition gains thanks to the energy transformation the region is undergoing. Labor also snatched the seats of Banks and Hughes from the Liberals. "Tonight, together, we start the new chapter," Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong told party supporters. In early counts in WA, Labor looked on track to retain its seats, including the nation's most indebted, Pearce, and was in a tight race in the new seat of Bullwinkel. 'Great political victory' Labor put health care at the core of its campaign, promising free GP visits and cheaper medicines as key cost-of-living measures. It benefited from the spectre of Donald Trump's presidency, which equally savaged the Coalition's campaign. Mr Albanese used Mr Trump's trade wars to remind voters of global uncertainty, pitching to voters that now was not the time for change. The Coalition campaign too suffered from a series of policy capitulations during the campaign, including its contentious work-from-home policy that was junked in the second week. Mr Chalmers conceded "we were in all sorts of trouble" at the end of last year but paid tribute to Mr Albanese for delivering the result. "He has pulled off one of the great political victories since federation," he said. Loading Having trouble seeing this form? Try
News.com.au
01-05-2025
- Politics
- News.com.au
Full list of QLD polling booths, where to vote on election day 2025
Queensland voters will head to the polls on May 3 for the 2025 federal election. Voting centres across the state will open at 8am and close at 6pm. A number of key Queensland seats are shaping up to be a tight contest with all eyes on the Labor-held marginal electorate of Blair and key Coalition-held seats of Forde, Leichardt and Longman. Voting is compulsory in Australia and hundreds of polling booths are located across local schools, churches, community halls and public buildings. See the full list of polling booth locations below: Polling booths will open at 8am on Saturday, May 3 and close at 6pm sharp. IS VOTING COMPULSORY? Yes, voting is compulsory for Australian citizens over the age of 18. WHICH ELECTORATE AM I IN? Who you vote for on election day will depend on which federal electorate you are in. You can find out the electorate you are in by clicking here. WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES IN QLD? After David Crisafulli ended Labor's nine-year grip on power at the state level, the LNP hopes to increase its already huge presence in Queensland at federal level on May 3. Click here to see the full list of Queensland candidates in the federal election. WHERE TO FIND A DEMOCRACY SAUSAGE The democracy sausage is a voting tradition in Australia. Here are the polling booths that will have snags on the barbie this Saturday. WHO YOUR NEIGHBOURS VOTED FOR Find out what party won the first preference vote in every polling place across Australia between 2004 and 2022. WHAT HAPPENS IF I DON'T VOTE? If you don't vote in a federal election, you will receive a letter from the Australian Electoral Commission. If you are unable to provide a valid and sufficient reason why you did not vote, you are required to pay a $20 penalty.
West Australian
01-05-2025
- Politics
- West Australian
Federal election 2025: The key seats that could decide the next government
This Saturday's election is shaping up to produce a mélange of results. All the polls say Labor is almost certain to retain Government, it will just be a matter of whether they cling on to majority, or fall short – and if so, by how much. Going into the election, Labor holds a notional 78 seats, the Coalition 57, the Greens 4, and the crossbench 11. The major parties need 76 of the 150 seats to form majority Government, but could govern with 75 by making a crossbencher the speaker. A handful of marginal seats could swap hands, while there are serious challenges to electorates with more sizeable buffers. The teal wave that swept through capital cities in 2022 could extend into the regions this time, while the Greens face tough competition in their three Queensland seats, and One Nation's vote is up across tehc ountry. Psephologist Kevin Bonham told The Nightly said there were about 50 seats to pay close attention to – including most marginal seats on either side. 'If the polls are right, the median result is Labor slightly increasing its majority. There could reasonably be anything from Labor falls into minority by a few through to something lopsided – anything within that range,' he said. 'For Labor to fall deeply into minority, something would be deeply wrong… But you can't be absolutely sure until you see what happens.' Liberal sources know there's a reality where they only win five or six seats come Saturday but are still hopeful a significant Labor backlash eventuates in the outer urban electorates. Labor MPs and staffers alike are still nervous, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is hopeful he doesn't just hold his majority, but increases it. 'We're aiming to hold every single one of them, and we're out there campaigning hard in Coalition-held seats and in Greens-held seats as well,' he said on Wednesday. Pollsters, strategists and party sources alike say there are very few guarantees in this election — Saturday will essentially be '150 byelections' but these are about 40 of the key ones to watch. Of the state's 38 seats, a handful could change hands on Saturday night. The unpopular state Government has been a drag on federal Labor's vote, but they're hopeful the outer-suburban wipeout the Coalition had been hoping for doesn't eventuate. The Liberals have made no secret of their aspiration to pinch Chisholm back from the Labor Party, while Aston — which was won by the Government in the 2023 byelection on a fluke — will inevitably change hands. 'We're not supposed to have it,' one Labor source said. McEwan , in the city's north, is held by Labor with 3.8 per cent. Dutton has now visited the seat three times this campaign and is firming up to be one of Labor's losses. Dunkley , in the city's east is another one of those outer-metropolitan/ peri urban seats where the cost-of-living factor could go against Labor's 6.8 per cent margin. The safe Labor seat of Gorton , held with 10 per cent, became the centre of a concerted Coalition advertising campaign mid-way through the campaign. Labor could suffer a significant swing here, but party insiders believe it will hold. They share the same view about Hawke (7.6 per cent), which Mr Dutton has now visited twice in five weeks to Mr Albanese's zero. Meanwhile in Bendigo , the Nationals are in with a strong chance of decimating Labor's 11.2 per cent margin to add it to its column. Labor is also fighting on its left flank, with the Greens running strong races in Wills and Macnamarra — where preference flows will be crucial. The minor party are most confident about knocking Wills MP Peter Khalil off. Labor could recover some of their losses by picking up Deakin , which is held by the Liberals on 0.02 per cent. Liberal sources believe they will pick up either Goldstein or Kooyong from the teal independents. Former MP Tim Wilson is running a strong campaign in the former, and Mr Dutton spent time with candidate Amelia Hammer in Kooyong this week to throw his support behind her. But the Coalition could lose Dan Tehan's regional seat of Wannon to Climate-200 backed candidate Alex Dyson. The Coalition is most confident of its chances in picking up the Labor-held seat of Gilmore , where former state MP Andrew Constance is again taking on Fiona Phillips' wafer thin 0.2 per cent margin. In Sydney, the redistribution has reverted Labor-held Bennelong - the seat of former PM John Howard - back to the Liberals. Mr Albanese visited the electorate on Monday to hand out how-to-vote cards with incumbent MP Jerome Laxale, and Labor sources acknowledge the seat will be a tough fight - but are hopeful it will hold. The Liberals have made some noise about Labor-held Reid, Parramatta , and Werriwa. Werriwa appears the most likely to change hands, if the outer-suburban swing away from Labor manifests, and dependent on how the third-party vote pans out. Out in the city's west, Labor is pouring resources into Fowler , where independent Dai Le won by 1.1 per cent in 2022 following a disastrous decision by Labor to parachute in senator Kristina Kenneally. This time, they've backed in Tu Le, and Mr Albanese received a warm reception during a streetwalk earlier this week. Both Mr Dutton and Mr Albanese stopped in the country's bellwether seat of Robertson on the same day this week. Both parties say they are confident in this central coast seat – but whatever happens here has for 15 elections been a reflection of the national mood. Bradfield , which has been a blue-ribbon seat since its creation in 1972, has captured some of the independent voters from the abolished electorate of North Sydney, and the Liberal's margin has been reduced to a narrow 2.5 per cent. With Paul Fletcher retiring, there's a strong belief well-financed independent Nicolette Boele could win the seat on her second tilt. Of the other blue-ribbon seats that went teal in 2022, Mackellar - held by Sophie Scamps - is discussed as the most likely to revert. In the regions, Calare will make for a fascinating watch where a three-way competition between the Nationals, party defector and incumbent Andrew Gee, and a Climate-200 backed independent. In Cowper , where independent Caz Jeise shaved off almost 10 per cent of Nationals MP Pat Conaghan's margin in 2022, Coalition sources acknowledge they face a serious threat. The Sunshine State offers Labor the most chances for gains. Greens-held Brisbane will be a three-way contest, and it could go to either Labor or the Liberal Party, depending on preferences. If Labor's Madonna Jarrett can finish second ahead of incumbent Stephen Bates, she can clinch the seat on preferences. The Coalition feels more confident in wresting Ryan back from the Greens. Griffith , Kevin Rudd's old seat, will be another fierce contest against Greens' MP Max Chandler-Mather. Mr Albanese visited the seat on Tuesday, and Labor sources acknowledge it will be difficult - less of a sure bet, but possible. The bayside seat of Bonner has been in Coalition hands since 2010, but as Labor has improved in national polling this electorate has emerged as a must-watch seat with Mr Albanese visiting the seat on Tuesday. In Leichhardt in the state's north, candidate Matt Smith has had plenty of frontbench support in the last five weeks and a strong advertising campaign behind him. Mr Dutton's seat of Dickson , which he holds with a slim 1.7 per cent margin, could provide a fascinating result. Labor's Ali France is running for a third time, and it was the first stop on Mr Albanese's campaign. The emergence of a Climate 200-backed candidate who hails from a Liberal-supporting part of the electorate has Mr Dutton vulnerable in his own backyard. Climate-200 independents are running strong in the regional electorate of Groom, which has emerged as a dark horse, as well as the Gold Coast seat of McPherson . While the Coalition has buffers of 6.9 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively, there's an outside chance of some movement. Four of the apple isle's five seats are under the spotlight this election. Labor believe they have a chance of flipping Bass and/ or Braddon , on margins of 1.4 per cent and eight per cent respectively. The Liberals have thrown a lot of resources at taking Lyons from Labor, with Mr Dutton making his fifth visit this campaign on Thursday. The safe Labor seat of Franklin , held by minister Julie Collins on 13.7 per cent, is on the wildcard list. Solidly Labor since 1993, the salmon farming issue has become potent in the electorate and independent Peter George, backed by Climate 200, has run a highly visible and well-funded campaign. Labor is in a good position to hold all nine of its seats in WA, including Tangney . The new electorate of Bullwinkel , which is notionally Labor, is favoured by the Liberals. The Liberals are confident the affluent blue-ribbon seat of Curtin , which went teal in 2022, will return to them. But they could lose the regional seat of Forrest , where Climate-200 backed Sue Chapman has run a strong campaign and could pinch the seat from the Liberals after 53 years. The suburban seat of Sturt is a three-cornered race, where Liberal MP James Stevens faces a tough battle against Labor and a new independent challenger. The Greens picked up 16 per cent of the vote last time, so any increase to that vote, as well as preference flows from the independent, could put this seat in Labor's hands. Labor could lose nearby Boothby , where former MP Nicolle Flint is taking on the Labor incumbent. Liberals are confident her name recognition will help them.
