2 days ago
- Climate
- San Francisco Chronicle
California weather forecasts could soon become less accurate when this data source goes offline
Storm and surf forecasts in California will become less accurate this year when federal funding for a network of ocean buoys disappears in September.
Federal support for the Coastal Data Information Program, operated by UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography, was drastically cut by nearly 70%. The drop in funding, set to take effect Sept. 1, will force some ocean buoys offline, scientists say, making weather forecasts less reliable, compromise public safety and hamper ship operations.
'If you lined up a hundred meteorologists and asked them, 'Are buoy observations important to the forecast process and important to the mission of saving lives?' every one of them will say, 'Yes, absolutely,'' said Troy Nicolini, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service Eureka office.
The Coastal Data Information Program network comprises about 90 buoys, not just along the West Coast, but also off the Gulf and East coasts and in the Pacific Islands. The buoys measure ocean waves, providing data used by scientists, meteorologists, boat captains, surfers and more.
'It's a very valuable resource across the entire spectrum of coastal users in the United States,' said Chuck Mesa, chief of coastal engineering for the Army Corps of Engineers' Los Angeles District.
The Army Corps is the main funder of the buoy program, with the California Department of Parks and Recreation contributing additional funds. In 2024, the network received a five-year, $40 million award from the Army Corps.
'The impact on California will be severe, with buoys removed from service, a reduction in processing and reporting capabilities, and the potential loss of uniquely trained technical staff,' said Mark Merrifield, a Scripps professor of oceanography and a co-principal investigator of the Coastal Data Information Program, during a California Ocean Protection Council meeting.
The cuts come as the Trump administration has aimed to significantly reduce support for science, including coastal and ocean research. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has proposed slashing its budget by almost 30%.
The loss of the buoy data could have wide-ranging impacts.
'CDIP really supports essential ocean condition data that's used for weather forecasting, it's used for public health and safety planning and real-time operational decision-making across California.' said Nick Da Silva, a senior environmental scientist with the state parks department and staff lead for the oceanography program.
While thousands of land-based weather stations provide data that informs short-term forecasts, there isn't a comparable bounty of information from the Pacific, explained the weather service's Nicolini: 'Wave buoys are kind of our only observation out there.'
The network's buoys, in particular, provide more detailed wave information than general-purpose buoys operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
'They catch really subtle wave differences that we know can impact things like sneaker waves or coastal erosion or rip currents,' Nicolini said. The Scripps buoys are also situated closer to the coast than NOAA's, providing information in the near-shore environment that Nicolini said is 'the most dangerous part of the ocean.'
The Coastal Data Information Program buoys protect local communities ahead of extreme weather events too: 'We've been working with various coastal cities to improve coastal flooding alert systems,' Merrifield said. Those benefits would go away if nearby buoys are no longer in operation.
The Coastal Data Information Program is also key for ship operations. The buoys and forecasts help determine whether charter fishing and whale watch boats can safely operate and whether oil tankers can safely enter the Port of Long Beach, said Capt. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, by email.
The forecasts and data are 'critical for (the) public and private sector, and commercial and pleasure vessels,' Louttit said. 'From a Jet Ski to the largest ships in the world.'
Army Corps engineers use historical wave data from the buoys to design beaches and structures within harbors, like jetties and breakwaters, said Mesa.
Merrifield said the Scripps scientists are looking for funding from other sources and also developing strategies for dealing with the cuts. The researchers hope that there could still be a turnaround with the federal funding, if not this year, then in the future.
'We're hoping that next year is better,' Merrifield said.
