Latest news with #Cochilco
AllAfrica
7 days ago
- Business
- AllAfrica
Lithium outlook: low prices, solid fundamentals
Recently, various media outlets reported the results and conclusions of a study published in June by Chile's Copper Commission (Cochilco), the government agency responsible for market analysis and research on mining trends. The report describes an oversupply situation in the lithium market and the current low prices, while also forecasting a long-term rebound. To understand this scenario, it's necessary to look beyond the short-term fluctuations and return to the market fundamentals. Unlike metals such as copper, which humanity has used since the Metal Ages over 7,000 BCE, lithium is a much more recent material. Its industrial use began in the 19th century CE and remained for a long time limited to very specific applications, such as pharmaceuticals or aerospace. It was only in recent decades, and especially in recent years, that lithium gained global strategic importance. The advent of the energy transition – with electromobility as its flagship – has structurally transformed the market. Reflecting this shift, the price of lithium, historically close to US$ 10,000/t of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE), soared to over $ 70,000 a ton in 2022. This boom, driven by a sudden and sustained surge in demand, attracted numerous new suppliers to the market. Traditional mining companies, emerging firms and even oil companies such as Exxon began exploring entry into the lithium supply chain, looking to tap unconventional resources like lithium contained in petroleum brines. The expectation of extraordinary returns triggered a rush to explore and develop projects, especially in Africa and Australia, where many hard-rock lithium deposits were discovered and advanced. (The most notable case is Manono in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with reserves equivalent to a third of those in the Salar de Atacama.) This boom led Australia to overtake Chile as the world's largest producer, while installed capacity expanded aggressively worldwide. This phenomenon of overinvestment – extensively documented by agencies such as Cochilco – largely explains the abrupt increase in supply and the subsequent price collapse we see today. Today, lithium is trading at around US$ 8,700/t LCE. However, as Cochilco notes, this scenario is not sustainable because the industry does not generate profits at these prices. In the short term, it is expected that a significant number of marginal suppliers – those who entered the market when the expected price far exceeded any incentive price—will exit the market. This natural adjustment should help ease the current oversupply and allow for a gradual price recovery. We estimate that the long-term price of lithium should settle in the range of US$ 12,000 to US$ 16,000/t, which ensures attractive minimum profitability for the industry. This outlook is based on the fact that lithium's structural fundamentals remain strong. The energy transition, especially the growth of electromobility and renewable energy storage, continues to be a robust driver, despite temporary disruptions like trade disputes between major powers. While we are unlikely to see again the extraordinary prices that exceeded US$ 70,000/t in 2022, the lithium market has room to stabilize at sustainable and profitable levels. A projected range between US$ 12,000 and US$ 16,000/t offers sufficient conditions to enable investment, sustain supply growth and provide long-term certainty for an industry that is strategic to the energy transition. Patricio Faúndez is country manager for GEM Mining Consulting in Singapore.
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Copper output from Chile's Codelco climbs 17% in May
SANTIAGO (Reuters) -Copper production from Chilean state-run miner Codelco ticked up some 16.5% year-over-year in May, data from copper commission Cochilco showed on Thursday, climbing to 130,100 metric tons. Codelco is the world's largest miner of the red metal.
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Copper output from Chile's Codelco climbs 17% in May
SANTIAGO (Reuters) -Copper production from Chilean state-run miner Codelco ticked up some 16.5% year-over-year in May, data from copper commission Cochilco showed on Thursday, climbing to 130,100 metric tons. Codelco is the world's largest miner of the red metal. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
28-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Chile Lifts Copper Price Call as Supply Disappoints and Trade Fears Ease
Chile, the biggest copper-producing country, raised its price projections for the metal this year and next on easing trade-war tensions and supply disruptions that signal the market is swinging into deficit. The government's copper commission, Cochilco, expects prices to average $4.30 a pound this year and next, compared with its previous forecast of $4.25 for both years, according to a report Wednesday.
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Copper output from Chile's Codelco slips 6% in February
SANTIAGO (Reuters) - Copper production from Chilean state-run miner Codelco dipped 6% year-over-year in February, data from copper commission Cochilco showed on Thursday, slipping to 98,100 metric tons. Codelco is the world's largest miner of the red metal. Sign in to access your portfolio
