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Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: Why gold rate may remain volatile this week & should you sell or buy?
Gold price prediction: This week will remain volatile and set tone in terms of new direction in prices. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold prices ended the last week down and also continued to consolidate during the entire May month below record highs touched in April. Meanwhile, spikes seen in prices in recent sessions were only on account of geopolitical developments involving Russia & Ukraine as Ukraine carried out its biggest strike on record hitting almost $7bn worth of Russian military planes. Maneesh Sharma, AVP - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers shares his views and recommendations: The yellow metal jumped almost 2% yesterday while Silver prices were boosted by 5 % due to augmented safe haven flows. On the global trade front, US President Donald Trump lashed out at China over the weekend and accused the latter of violating a preliminary tariff agreement, reviving fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies. Trump also announced to double tariffs on steel imports from 25 % to 50 % while reportedly urging countries to present the most favourable trade by Wednesday in an effort to speed up discussions before reciprocal tariffs come into effect on July 8. This also kept the dollar upside limited, keeping it below 100 since last week. Bullion prices remained also up following Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller's slightly dovish approach, saying that rate cuts remain possible later this year. However, he warned that policymakers are mainly focused on controlling inflation. Gold Price Outlook This week to remain volatile and set tone in terms of new direction in prices Overall bias for bullion still suggests limited upside for the current week as June tends to be the weakest season of the year for Gold Miners & stocks in terms of seasonal approach, leaving waning interest in markets. Meanwhile volatility could also remain high as US Fed members continue to stick to easing bias but rate cut probabilities stay delayed only after September month. Adding to these concerns, any further escalation in Russia Ukraine conflict, with any retaliatory response from Russia warrants caution for the USD bulls and may lead to volatility in bullion prices. Traders also look forward to the release of several macro cues including US JOLTS Job Openings along with speeches by influential FOMC members. The major focus, however, will remain on the US monthly employment details, or the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday amid steady payrolls may confirm delayed rate cut for the year. Gold Price Weekly View: Highly Volatile (Duration 1 – 2 weeks) Strategy: We expect limited upside in Gold for the coming week as any volatile spike towards $3420 - 3450 per oz in Spot (CMP $3358 per oz) remains a selling opportunity on a weekly basis. On MCX Aug futures (CMP Rs. 97,785 per 10 gm) prices could trade in a broad range of Rs. 99,850 – 93,980 per 10 gm for a duration of 10 – 15 trading days. MCX Silver is expected to remain steady as compared to Gold while may trade in a broad range of Rs, 98,700 – 1,03,500 per Kg. (CMP Rs. 1,00,630 per Kg.) in July futures contract. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
14-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for the coming days
: Global gold prices have been fluctuating - from hitting new highs, to giving up those gains - as trade uncertainties are weighing on the yellow metal's outlook. Domestically, the India-Pakistan conflict has also triggered some safe haven buying. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now So what's the gold rate outlook for this week? What are the key events that will shape the direction of gold prices going ahead and what should investors do? Maneesh Sharma, AVP - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers shares his views and recommendations: Gold, which posted strong gains last week, closing at $3325 per oz, erased its weekly losses amid US China trade deal optimism as both countries over weekend discussions agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction. On the MCX, gold closed near Rs 96,500 per 10 gm & silver around Rs 96,700 per kilogram on Friday last week, pushing the gold-silver ratio above 100:1 Meanwhile at the start of the week US Stocks registered gains in the aftermath of the US-China deal, in which both countries lowered duties and agreed to sustain further talks to reach a trade agreement. Washington and Beijing agreed to lower duties from 145% to 30% and from 125% to 10%, respectively, as revealed in a joint statement released. This weighed heavily on sentiments for Gold. Meanwhile, traders lowered their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut rates just twice instead of three in 2025, according to data revealed by Prime Market Terminal. Gold Price Outlook Cooling US China trade uncertainty had so far weighed on sentiments, but some investors remain wary about the lack of detail in their deal announcement, and another flare-up could propel bullion to lead to volatility in prices. Focus this week could also remain on critical US macro cues including US Core Producer & Consumer Price Index which is expected to remain stable for the last month as impact of increased US tariffs takes place. Meanwhile, the Fed's refusal to commit to a timeline for rate cuts had kept uncertainty against monetary policy decisions last week, but the Fed chair is due to speak this week providing fresh cues to the market. If Powell signals discomfort with current labor market trends, expectations for rate cuts will likely strengthen, offering support for gold at lower levels. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Geopolitical tensions will also be in focus this week amid Russia Ukraine peace deal as two leaders meet face to face on Thursday in Turkey. However the same is not confirmed by the Russian president so far while military clashes between Ukraine & Russia still continue to take place. With May-June month remaining seasonally subdued, a consolidative phase might occur in prices in the current month. Meanwhile Silver is expected to remain steady amid trade deal optimism between US & China could keep the downside limited in white metal. Tariff de-escalation moves would be constructive for silver, which derives more than half of its demand from industrial uses such as electronics and solar manufacturing. Traders will be looking for signs that the deal includes measures that could improve industrial trade flows for Silver. Gold Weekly View - Volatile June (CMP Rs. 93,990 per 10 gm); Sell on rise in the range of 94,800 – 95,500, with SL around 96,300, Target 93,000 - 92,500 (Duration, 1 – 2 weeks) (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Time of India
23-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold prices hit Rs 1 lakh! What's the outlook for gold and should you buy or sell the yellow metal? Explained
have been skyrocketing and how! have breached the Rs 1 lakh mark, a historic first for the yellow metal. Gold has always been seen as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty. Concerns over global economic growth, escalating China-US trade war are driving the rise in gold prices, with a weaker dollar having added to the momentum. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Experts believe that fundamentally markets are pricing in increased geopolitical risks, fuelled by US President Donald Trump's trade policy tensions and stagflation concerns which could continue to drive further gains for the yellow metal. Central banks around the world have been on a gold buying spree for several quarters and have shored up their gold reserves to new highs. Incidentally, RBI has not only been buying gold, it has also been shifting significant quantities back to India. Central banks on gold buying spree But with the precious metal crossing the Rs 1 lakh mark - the important question in the minds of investors is - is the gold rally sustainable? How much steam is left in this rally? Also, should you be buying gold at such high levels, or is it time to book profits? We ask experts: Rise of Gold Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers points out that gold has seen exceptional performance since the start of the year. It has risen over 21% till date, touching new record highs more than 20 times this year. According to a PTI report, 20 years ago in April 2005, gold was trading at Rs 6,267 per 10 grams on MCX. It has risen steadily through various global economic rises such as the 2008 financial meltdown, COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict. In April 2025, gold hit its all-time high level of Rs 1,00,000 for the August month delivery, which is a 41% surge in just 12 months. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Gold Price Also Read | India in a good spot, China in big trouble: Mark Mobius warns market likely to get even shakier on Trump's tariff moves Gold price outlook : Where are gold prices headed? Abhilash Koikara, Head Forex & Commodity, Nuvama Professional Clients Group has a target for gold prices at $3,930 levels in dollar terms. According to Koikara, on MCX gold prices can test Rs 1,12,000 levels by December 2025. NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity at Ventura sees gold continuing to be an attractive investment bet under the current global conditions. Price predictions for gold are being made on these premises and can fluctuate based on subsequent changes in the market conditions. Factors like inflation, central bank demand, and economic uncertainty will continue to influence gold prices, he said. 'We believe that the prices in this euphoria may rise sharply this year to $3700 an ounce but the target by December 2025 should be around $3200 - $3300. In rupee terms the target for December 2025 should be close to Rs 92,000 – Rs 93,000 per 10 grams (due to expected rupee appreciation) with USDINR expected to be in the range of 83.50 – 84.50 by December 2025,' he told TOI. After the year end 2025 corrections, with the impact of tariffs and economic slowdown across the globe, we could witness the safe haven demand for gold to surge in the year 2026 wherein we expect gold prices to surpass $4000 an ounce (Ranging between $3800 - $4200) an ounce, he added. Naveen Mathur of Anand Rathi still sees room for a 10-15% rise in gold prices from current levels. $3800 – 3850 per oz in spot translating to levels of Rs 1,05,000 – 1,08,000 per 10 gm in the domestic markets, still looks possible till December 2025 end, he says. MCX Gold VS BSE Sensex According to Mathur, the current rally has been too fast as the rise from Rs 90,000 to Rs 1 lakh was seen only under the last 12 trading days while the run from Rs 80,000 to Rs 90,000 took about 77 days. 'This indicates price corrections of up to 5-10 % which could be seen in the coming weeks,' he told TOI. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd believes gold could inch towards $3350-3500 and consolidate near the same. 'However, looking at the momentum, a rally towards $3700 over the long term can also not be ruled out. Assuming USDINR at 85, on the domestic front, immediate range is near Rs 96500- 1,00,000. From a longer term perspective, Rs 1,06,000 could be possible,' he says. Also Read | Gold @ Rs 1 lakh: Should you buy or sell? Abhilash Koikara of Nuvama Professional Clients Group advocates buying gold on dips. 'We may witness shallow corrections in the coming days till $3,380 (approximately Rs 96,800)- $3,300 (approximately Rs 94,800) and such corrections must be used as a buying opportunity for medium/long term horizon for the specified targets,' he tells TOI. NS Ramaswamy of Ventura says that with gold touching Rs 1 lakh, investors could either hold their long position or book profits to initiate a buy position in the range of Rs 92,500 – Rs 94,000 levels. Asset Class Comparison 'Fresh buying at the present levels of Rs 98,000 to Rs 1,00,000 lakh is not recommended. Bottom fishing could be done at Rs 92,500 to Rs 94,000 levels,' he says. Manav Modi of Motilal Oswal also advocates the same strategy for gold investors. 'If you are a new investor in gold, then a buy on dips strategy is the best way forward. Investors should definitely not sell, because the long term outlook is strong. For existing gold investors, partial profit booking and then re-entry at dips may be the right strategy,' he tells TOI. Anand Rathi's Naveen Mathur says gold remains a long term buying opportunity for investors. 'We suggest investors continue to buy gold at regular intervals considering it as a portfolio diversifier against other asset classes from a long term perspective,' he concludes. (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
