Latest news with #ConcordiaUniversity
Yahoo
17 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Toronto home prices could hit $1.8M, Vancouver $2.8M by 2032 without major supply boost: Report
Median home prices in Toronto could climb to $1.8 million and Vancouver's to $2.8 million by 2032 if the rate of new housing supply is not increased significantly, new research from Concordia University and private equity firm Equiton has found. The research, led by Erkan Yönder, an associate professor at Concordia's John Molson School of Business, uses a neural network-based AI model to find patterns among mountains of data. It quantifies how much more housing Canada's biggest cities will need in order to rein in prices — and offers granular projections on how approval delays or material costs can directly affect how much housing gets built. 'We see that supply should be multiplied, like, multiple times, not increasing 10 per cent, 20 per cent,' Yönder told Yahoo Finance Canada in an interview. 'They don't help enough.' Canada's housing supply problem is no secret and has long been at the forefront of policy conversations. Prime Minister Mark Carney's election platform included a promise to double the rate of housing construction over the next 10 years. The Concordia research shows that under Statistics Canada's baseline projections for population growth, doubling the rate of new completions would have strikingly different outcomes in different cities — but would likely stabilize price growth in Toronto and Vancouver. The report says Canada's current pace of building has completions at around 1.75 per cent of existing dwellings per year. The goal of doubling completions, the report says, 'while ambitious, is necessary to address affordability challenges, which will remain a generational issue for Canadians.' Toronto's median home price would climb from $1.4 million in 2024 to $1.8 million (in today's dollars) in 2032 under the current pace of housing completions, the report says — but it would slow to $1.6 million if completions doubled. In Vancouver, the report says government policy slowing immigration should lead to 'a modest dip' in the median price this year, but the current housing pace would see that price rise from $2.5 million to $2.8 million in 2032. A 50 per cent increase in completions would do little to slow the trend, the report says — only a doubling of completions would flatten prices. The diversity of Canada's housing markets also stands out in the research. While doubling supply could put the brakes on price growth in Toronto and Vancouver, the model projects a different outcome for Montreal. 'Even if you increase much, much more in Montreal, you cannot stop the price increases,' said Yönder. He explains that Montreal is on the 'wrong side' of an inverted supply curve, where intense demand overwhelms new inventory. This is fuelled by a construction pace of just 1.19 per cent of its housing stock, nearly half of Vancouver's (2.32 per cent). Because prices are still far lower than in other major cities, he adds, there is simply 'more room … for prices to go up.' Tariff policies cannot be considered without thinking about the housing supply. This is something to take very Yönder, associate professor at Concordia's John Molson School of Business Calgary, by contrast, is more responsive to shifts in immigration and population than to changes in supply. The model sees prices dropping in the near term from an immigration-driven peak of $740,000 in 2024, and remaining below that peak regardless of the pace of construction. The research quantifies the impact of reducing red tape and approval timelines. Improving a municipality's score by 10 per cent on the Regulation Index (a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Statistics Canada metric for zoning rules and assessments) would result in 10 per cent more homes being built, the research finds. A 10 per cent reduction in approval times would give a three per cent boost to supply. Yönder notes that making these adjustments has no expense. "If you improve the regulation process, decrease the delays, we can increase supply at no cost to the government,' he said. On the flip side, the research says that a 10 per cent increase in input costs can reduce housing completions by 25 per cent to 35 per cent, with apartment constructions most affected. Yönder notes that this connects Canada's housing goals directly to global trade and tariff policies. "The tariff policies cannot be considered without thinking about the housing supply," Yönder warned. "This is something to take very seriously." The professor acknowledges that while regulatory burdens aren't a new topic, this research 'is the first study which quantifies the impacts'. Understanding these levers is critical, he suggests, because the scale of the overall challenge is so immense. When asked if doubling housing completions is actually possible in a city like Vancouver, his answer was blunt. 'No,' he said. 'It's not possible... it's very costly. It's very difficult'. The value of the research, Yönder says, is in providing a clearer forecast that can yield better planning. "In the end, we can make better decisions by projecting better.' John MacFarlane is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jmacf. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Toronto home prices could hit $1.8M, Vancouver $2.8M by 2032 without major supply boost: Report
Median home prices in Toronto could climb to $1.8 million and Vancouver's to $2.8 million by 2032 if the rate of new housing supply is not increased significantly, new research from Concordia University and private equity firm Equiton has found. The research, led by Erkan Yönder, an associate professor at Concordia's John Molson School of Business, uses a neural network-based AI model to find patterns among mountains of data. It quantifies how much more housing Canada's biggest cities will need in order to rein in prices — and offers granular projections on how approval delays or material costs can directly affect how much housing gets built. 'We see that supply should be multiplied, like, multiple times, not increasing 10 per cent, 20 per cent,' Yönder told Yahoo Finance Canada in an interview. 'They don't help enough.' Canada's housing supply problem is no secret and has long been at the forefront of policy conversations. Prime Minister Mark Carney's election platform included a promise to double the rate of housing construction over the next 10 years. The Concordia research shows that under Statistics Canada's baseline projections for population growth, doubling the rate of new completions would have strikingly different outcomes in different cities — but would likely stabilize price growth in Toronto and Vancouver. The report says Canada's current pace of building has completions at around 1.75 per cent of existing dwellings per year. The goal of doubling completions, the report says, 'while ambitious, is necessary to address affordability challenges, which will remain a generational issue for Canadians.' Toronto's median home price would climb from $1.4 million in 2024 to $1.8 million (in today's dollars) in 2032 under the current pace of housing completions, the report says — but it would slow to $1.6 million if completions doubled. In Vancouver, the report says government policy slowing immigration should lead to 'a modest dip' in the median price this year, but the current housing pace would see that price rise from $2.5 million to $2.8 million in 2032. A 50 per cent increase in completions would do little to slow the trend, the report says — only a doubling of completions would flatten prices. The diversity of Canada's housing markets also stands out in the research. While doubling supply could put the brakes on price growth in Toronto and Vancouver, the model projects a different outcome for Montreal. 'Even if you increase much, much more in Montreal, you cannot stop the price increases,' said Yönder. He explains that Montreal is on the 'wrong side' of an inverted supply curve, where intense demand overwhelms new inventory. This is fuelled by a construction pace of just 1.19 per cent of its housing stock, nearly half of Vancouver's (2.32 per cent). Because prices are still far lower than in other major cities, he adds, there is simply 'more room … for prices to go up.' Tariff policies cannot be considered without thinking about the housing supply. This is something to take very Yönder, associate professor at Concordia's John Molson School of Business Calgary, by contrast, is more responsive to shifts in immigration and population than to changes in supply. The model sees prices dropping in the near term from an immigration-driven peak of $740,000 in 2024, and remaining below that peak regardless of the pace of construction. The research quantifies the impact of reducing red tape and approval timelines. Improving a municipality's score by 10 per cent on the Regulation Index (a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Statistics Canada metric for zoning rules and assessments) would result in 10 per cent more homes being built, the research finds. A 10 per cent reduction in approval times would give a three per cent boost to supply. Yönder notes that making these adjustments has no expense. "If you improve the regulation process, decrease the delays, we can increase supply at no cost to the government,' he said. On the flip side, the research says that a 10 per cent increase in input costs can reduce housing completions by 25 per cent to 35 per cent, with apartment constructions most affected. Yönder notes that this connects Canada's housing goals directly to global trade and tariff policies. "The tariff policies cannot be considered without thinking about the housing supply," Yönder warned. "This is something to take very seriously." The professor acknowledges that while regulatory burdens aren't a new topic, this research 'is the first study which quantifies the impacts'. Understanding these levers is critical, he suggests, because the scale of the overall challenge is so immense. When asked if doubling housing completions is actually possible in a city like Vancouver, his answer was blunt. 'No,' he said. 'It's not possible... it's very costly. It's very difficult'. The value of the research, Yönder says, is in providing a clearer forecast that can yield better planning. "In the end, we can make better decisions by projecting better.' John MacFarlane is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jmacf. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
29-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
New Concordia AI Forecast Warns Policy Reform Crucial to Help Moderate Canadian Home Prices
BURLINGTON, ON, July 29, 2025 /CNW/ - As federal, provincial, and municipal governments race to develop innovative approaches to expand Canada's housing supply, a new study from the John Molson School of Business at Concordia University identifies that high-impact tools to boost housing completions are within reach of policymakers. Supported by the Equiton Research Fund in Real Estate, Breaking Ground: AI-Driven Analysis of How Policy Reform Can Unleash Canadian Housing Supply explores how rising home prices are shaped by policy decisions and market forces and identifies data-backed strategies to begin to realign housing supply with underlying demand. Shop Top Mortgage Rates A quicker path to financial freedom Personalized rates in minutes Your Path to Homeownership "This research validates what housing advocates have long known — that minimizing policy barriers and lowering construction costs is crucial to addressing the housing crisis," says Christopher Wein, Chief Operating Officer of Equiton Developments, Equiton's in-house development division. "For the first time, we can actually see the impact of these obstacles quantified in real terms. That's the kind of data stakeholders need to confidently start shifting policy in the right direction." Head researcher Dr. Erkan Yönder, Associate Professor of Real Estate and Finance, adds: "There is nothing easy about addressing one of Canada's biggest generational issues. However, we show that streamlining approval frameworks and reducing red tape can be a low-cost first step that could be quickly implemented for meaningful results. The cost of inaction is too great to ignore the tools we already have." Key Takeaways Across Canada, a 10% reduction in building restrictions can raise annual home completions by almost the same percentage. A 10% reduction in approval delays adds another 3%. A 10% increase in input costs — primarily materials, but also attributable to taxes, fees, and labour — can reduce housing completions by 25% to 35%, especially for apartment-style housing. Under current trends, Toronto median home prices can reach $1.8M by 2032. Doubling completions could moderate prices to $1.6M. In Vancouver, home prices may exceed $2.8M by 2032 at the current trajectory. Aggressive supply increases could moderate prices closer to $2.5M. Montréal prices rise across all scenarios, while Calgary's price growth is more responsive to completions and population shifts. The new findings complement earlier research by Yönder and his team, which used artificial intelligence (AI) to project long-term rent pricing trends in Canada's major urban centres including Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, and Calgary. Find the full report at Dr. Erkan Yönder is an Associate Professor of Real Estate Finance and serves as the Director of the Jonathan Wener Centre for Real Estate at the John Molson School of Business, Concordia University. With a primary focus on real estate finance, Erkan's expertise lies in commercial real estate and sustainable real estate. Erkan's research has found its way into esteemed academic journals and has secured multiple grants from renowned institutions such as the National Pension Hub (NPH) and the European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA). Notably, his research earned him the Nick Tyrrell Real Estate Research Prize in the UK and the distinguished Best Published Article Award from Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), a United Nations-supported initiative. Erkan has had the privilege of presenting his scholarly work at some of the world's leading universities, including MIT, Yale University, the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), and Cornell University. Erkan received his PhD degree in Finance and Real Estate at Maastricht University. Christopher Wein is Chief Operating Officer of Equiton Developments. Christopher has over 25 years of experience in real estate development, including C-suite and senior executive positions in large-scale development companies operating throughout Canada and the United States. He has led development initiatives for all asset classes and is adept in all types of construction including low-rise, master-planned communities, resorts, and skyscrapers. ABOUT EQUITON Equiton is a leading private real estate investment firm committed to expanding access to institutional-quality real estate through a range of investment solutions. Equiton is proud to champion informed participation in the real estate market through independent research, expert insights, and advocacy through the Canadian Chamber of Commerce's Housing and Development Strategy Council. The firm is backed by Equiton Living and Equiton Developments — its dedicated property management and development divisions — enabling an expert-led, active management approach that enhances insight and control. This drives strong outcomes for investors while delivering lasting value to residents and homeowners. For more information, visit SOURCE Equiton Inc. View original content to download multimedia: Sign in to access your portfolio
Cision Canada
29-07-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
New Concordia AI Forecast Warns Policy Reform Crucial to Help Moderate Canadian Home Prices
BURLINGTON, ON, July 29, 2025 /CNW/ - As federal, provincial, and municipal governments race to develop innovative approaches to expand Canada's housing supply, a new study from the John Molson School of Business at Concordia University identifies that high-impact tools to boost housing completions are within reach of policymakers. Supported by the Equiton Research Fund in Real Estate, Breaking Ground: AI-Driven Analysis of How Policy Reform Can Unleash Canadian Housing Supply explores how rising home prices are shaped by policy decisions and market forces and identifies data-backed strategies to begin to realign housing supply with underlying demand. "This research validates what housing advocates have long known — that minimizing policy barriers and lowering construction costs is crucial to addressing the housing crisis," says Christopher Wein, Chief Operating Officer of Equiton Developments, Equiton's in-house development division. "For the first time, we can actually see the impact of these obstacles quantified in real terms. That's the kind of data stakeholders need to confidently start shifting policy in the right direction." Head researcher Dr. Erkan Yönder, Associate Professor of Real Estate and Finance, adds: "There is nothing easy about addressing one of Canada's biggest generational issues. However, we show that streamlining approval frameworks and reducing red tape can be a low-cost first step that could be quickly implemented for meaningful results. The cost of inaction is too great to ignore the tools we already have." Key Takeaways Across Canada, a 10% reduction in building restrictions can raise annual home completions by almost the same percentage. A 10% reduction in approval delays adds another 3%. A 10% increase in input costs — primarily materials, but also attributable to taxes, fees, and labour — can reduce housing completions by 25% to 35%, especially for apartment-style housing. Under current trends, Toronto median home prices can reach $1.8M by 2032. Doubling completions could moderate prices to $1.6M. In Vancouver, home prices may exceed $2.8M by 2032 at the current trajectory. Aggressive supply increases could moderate prices closer to $2.5M. Montréal prices rise across all scenarios, while Calgary's price growth is more responsive to completions and population shifts. The new findings complement earlier research by Yönder and his team, which used artificial intelligence (AI) to project long-term rent pricing trends in Canada's major urban centres including Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, and Calgary. Find the full report at Dr. Erkan Yönder is an Associate Professor of Real Estate Finance and serves as the Director of the Jonathan Wener Centre for Real Estate at the John Molson School of Business, Concordia University. With a primary focus on real estate finance, Erkan's expertise lies in commercial real estate and sustainable real estate. Erkan's research has found its way into esteemed academic journals and has secured multiple grants from renowned institutions such as the National Pension Hub (NPH) and the European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA). Notably, his research earned him the Nick Tyrrell Real Estate Research Prize in the UK and the distinguished Best Published Article Award from Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), a United Nations-supported initiative. Erkan has had the privilege of presenting his scholarly work at some of the world's leading universities, including MIT, Yale University, the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), and Cornell University. Erkan received his PhD degree in Finance and Real Estate at Maastricht University. Christopher Wein is Chief Operating Officer of Equiton Developments. Christopher has over 25 years of experience in real estate development, including C-suite and senior executive positions in large-scale development companies operating throughout Canada and the United States. He has led development initiatives for all asset classes and is adept in all types of construction including low-rise, master-planned communities, resorts, and skyscrapers. ABOUT EQUITON Equiton is a leading private real estate investment firm committed to expanding access to institutional-quality real estate through a range of investment solutions. Equiton is proud to champion informed participation in the real estate market through independent research, expert insights, and advocacy through the Canadian Chamber of Commerce's Housing and Development Strategy Council. The firm is backed by Equiton Living and Equiton Developments — its dedicated property management and development divisions — enabling an expert-led, active management approach that enhances insight and control. This drives strong outcomes for investors while delivering lasting value to residents and homeowners.
Global News
28-07-2025
- Business
- Global News
Trump vows tariffs for ‘the rest of the world.' Where does Canada stand?
The United States will impose a tariff for 'essentially the rest of the world' instead of making individual trade deals, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters Monday. 'We're going to be setting a tariff essentially for the rest of the world, and that's what they're going to pay if they want to do business in the United States, because you can't sit down and make 200 deals,' Trump said during a joint media event with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Trump's remark comes a day after he announced a trade deal with the European Union, which will see a 15 per cent tariff imposed on most European goods being exported to the U.S. The deal with the EU looks very similar to the one Trump announced with Japan, which would have a 15 per cent tariff on most Japanese exports to the U.S. Story continues below advertisement While Trump has said negotiations with other nations and trading blocs were progressing towards a deal before Aug. 1, he has singled out Canada as a country with which he was not making progress. Last week, Trump said his administration hasn't 'had a lot of luck with Canada' in its trade negotiations. He added that there may not be a deal with Canada. 'I think Canada could be one where there's just a tariff, not really a negotiation,' he told reporters. 'We don't have a deal with Canada; we haven't been focused on them,' he said. Prime Minister Mark Carney on Monday said he would only sign a deal that was 'a good deal for Canada.' 'The negotiations are at an intense phase,' Carney told reporters in Prince Edward Island. Tweet This Click to share quote on Twitter: "The negotiations are at an intense phase," Carney told reporters in Prince Edward Island. Canada and the EU have both similarities and differences when it came to their respective commercial relationships with the U.S., Carney said. 'We have some similarities with the European Union in terms of our commercial relationships with the United States. We're one of their most important trade partners,' he said. 4:59 Canada – U.S. trade negotiations ahead of deadline 'He does not like Canada' These deals don't portend well for Canada, said Concordia University economist Moshe Lander, especially considering some recent threats Trump made against Canada's economy. Story continues below advertisement 'Trump's getting his way. He's menacing countries, big and small, and putting the world economy back to the 1930s,' Lander said. Get breaking National news For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen. Sign up for breaking National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Trump's statement on Monday seems to indicate that he would rather settle on a flat tariff rate for his trading partners, said Sal Guatieri, director and senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. 'For countries that run a trade surplus with the U.S. goods, they most likely will need to settle for something in that 15 per cent range,' he said. Earlier this month, Carney said it was 'unlikely' that a zero-tariff trade deal could be reached in August. Carney told reporters there was 'not a lot of evidence' for any country to have a tariff-free agreement and it was unlikely Trump would agree to one with Canada. Where does Canada's trade stand with U.S.? Canada's balance of trade with the U.S. is not like that of the EU. Story continues below advertisement Excluding oil, gas and energy, Canada runs a trade deficit with its neighbour. However, Guatieri said Trump was likely to only look at the overall balance of trade. 'Unfortunately, I don't think the White House is making much of a distinction with respect to Canada's trade with the U.S.,' he said. 'It's just saying basically in total, Canada is running a surplus with the U.S. and needs to pay a higher tariff. The main message from these six trade deals (that Trump has signed recently) is that basically no country will be unscathed. Everyone will end up with higher tariffs than was the case a year ago under the new White House,' he said. Trump has been ratcheting up his threats against Canada as the trade talks intensify. Last month, he said Canada was a 'a very difficult country to trade with' and threatened to scrap the talks altogether if Canada did not withdraw its Digital Services Tax. Last month, he raised the stakes of his trade war. In a letter to Carney posted to Truth Social, Trump threatened a 35 per cent tariff on 'Canadian products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs.' 'If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 35 per cent that we charge,' the letter adds. Story continues below advertisement 'He does not like Canada,' Lander said. 'Canada is not going to get any sort of favourable treatment in whatever deal comes out,' he added. 2:04 What Trump's EU trade deal reveals about talks with Canada Autos, steel, aluminum hardest hit Those threats come as the steel and aluminum sectors continue to face steep U.S. tariffs. Story continues below advertisement 'Unfortunately, it doesn't look like any country so far is able to get their 50 per cent duty on steel and aluminum down to a smaller number,' Guatieri said. He added, 'One partial save for Quebec is that the U.S. really does need Canadian aluminum. They have limited capacity to increase their aluminum production or buy foreign-made aluminum from countries other than Canada.' Both Japan and the EU managed to get their tariff rate on automobiles reduced from 25 per cent to 15 per cent. Guatieri said Canada is likely to get a similar deal on autos. 'We would still be somewhat competitive in selling our vehicles to the U.S., especially when you consider that there is an exemption for U.S. content in Canadian-made vehicles. That would help (but) not fully shield Canada's auto industry,' he said. According to BMO, Canada's effective tariff rate for trade with the U.S. is currently around six per cent. This is because Trump's tariffs on Canada do not include goods that are CUSMA-complaint. This would be 'manageable' for the broader economy, Guatieri said, but added that the auto, steel and aluminum industries could see some serious pain, including potential layoffs. 'We think most of the rest of the country is somewhat insulated from this trade war, but unfortunately Ontario and Quebec are not,' Guatieri said.
