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The Hill
7 hours ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Senate rankings: The 5 seats most likely to flip
The 2026 midterm cycle is already bustling with activity as Senate Republicans gear up to defend their majority and Democrats try to reverse course from a difficult few years and chart a path forward. The fields are starting to take shape as incumbents decide whether to run again, candidates launch campaigns and party leaders attempt to woo their top choices. It's all happening against the backdrop of constant action at the White House and Congress' push to enact President Trump's massive tax bill — both of which will play outsize roles in the coming cycle. Here's an early look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year. Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.) is considered the most vulnerable Democrat on the Senate map and Republicans have eagerly been awaiting the chance to win back the seat. But they were barely a quarter of the way into the cycle when Republicans got their first big piece of bad recruitment news: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decided against a Senate bid, depriving the GOP of its top choice across the entire 2026 map. His decision scrambled the race. Not only did it deprive the GOP of a top-tier candidate in a crucial race, it also increases the chances of a bloody primary. 'Kemp is the 1:1 on the board. Full stop,' one GOP operative said. 'This is a situation where you want a primary. Where you want them to show their mettle because I just don't think that we have a clear enough indication on any of these guys to say they can do it.' Multiple Republicans indicated they expect a primary much like what happened in Ohio last year: a crowded field of B-tier candidates, many of whom will prompt more questions than answers. The field is already starting to take shape. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) is in, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is out and operatives believe Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) may follow Carter into the primary. More are likely to go for it, but none that are considered heavy hitters at this stage. Top party figures have been hoping for freshman Rep. Brian Jack (R-Ga.) to take the plunge, but few expect him to do so. There have also been murmurs around Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins and Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler — but nothing more. Republicans concede Ossoff will be to beat without Kemp, pointing to his growing war chest, battle-tested history and penchant for avoiding missteps during his term. GOP operatives, though, see openings to whack him over support for transgender women in sports and steadfast opposition to Trump. 'I am bullish on Jon Ossoff. … He's done a great job. He's centered the people of Georgia and their needs and their concerns,' Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) told The Hill, arguing that the GOP's 'one big, beautiful bill' will be an albatross at the ballot box. 'I'd hate to have to run as a Republican in this moment,' he added. If Democrats are going to make any headway toward winning back the majority, toppling Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is a must. And for now, they are waiting to find out whether Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is in or out for what would be the marquee matchup on the board. Much like Kemp in Georgia, Cooper is a popular two-term governor who would easily give his party the best chance of flipping a seat and avoiding a messy primary. Democrats are hopeful that Cooper will not follow the lead of numerous governors over the past decade who have spurned bids for the upper chamber. 'They've got to convince him that serving in the Senate is better than spending time with his family,' one Democratic operative with North Carolina ties said of party leaders. 'That's a hard sell.' Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) has already announced a bid. Whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to face an incumbent Republican who has twice won close contests. But for Tillis, squaring off against a popular governor in a year when the mood of the country might not be in the GOP's corner would likely make it his toughest political bout yet. Adding to his issues is potential GOP primary as some conservatives continue to cry foul over his work with Democrats in recent years. But Republicans remain confident as the state's rightward tilt stayed true in November. Governors past and present also have found that running for the upper chamber is a different animal, potentially giving Tillis another boost. Does anyone want to face off with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) next year? That's the question on the minds of top politicos as Democrats struggle to find a viable candidate against the Maine centrist after the party failed spectacularly to defeat her in 2020, leaving them burned in the New England state heading into next year. The latest blow came as Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) announced he will run for his toss-up House seat once again rather than mount a statewide bid. That's leaving Democrats to pin their hopes on Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) throwing her hat in the ring — but Mills hasn't sounded overly enthusiastic about a potential bid. 'I'm not planning to do anything right now, I'm just — I'm not planning to run for anything,' Mills told a local outlet in late April. 'Things change week to week, month to month, but I'm not … at this moment, I'm not planning to run for another office.' The reticence comes after Sara Gideon vastly outraised and outspent the five-term senator in 2020, only to see her polling advantage evaporate come election day. Collins won by eight percentage points, owing in large part to her long-standing connections to the state. 'In general, for any senator who's served their state and been out there and talking to the voters and engaging them and working to solve those problems, they're going to be effective with their voters to gain their support,' said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Committee during the 2020 cycle. 'From what I have seen from so many of my colleagues and Republican colleagues, that's the winning combination,' she added. Nevertheless, Maine remains a blue state and the last one to not change parties as part of the realignment that finally saw Montana and West Virginia fall into GOP hands last year. This and some troublesome polls are keeping that glimmer of hope alive for some Democrats. One Democratic operative made clear to The Hill that there remains donor interest in playing ball —- but only if a 'legit candidate' takes the plunge. It's not even halfway through the off-year and the Michigan Democratic primary is already the leader in the clubhouse to become the most contentious of the 2026 cycle as a trio of key players look to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) in the Wolverine State. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), former health director Abdul El-Sayed, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) and former Michigan state House Speaker Joe Tate have all launched bids in recent months. Stevens, the favorite of Washington Democrats, is the initial leader with 34 percent, according to a new survey released last week. That's a 12-point advantage over El-Sayed, who has Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) backing. But the presence of the two is giving Democrats agita over what is becoming a proxy battle between the party establishment and progressive forces, with that battle stretching into one over Israel and Palestine. 'It's basically a [Hillary Clinton] versus Bernie type fight,' said one Democratic operative with Michigan ties. As for McMorrow, she is the dark horse. The state senator, who has seen her star rise in recent years, is pitching herself as part of a new generation of Democrats, having said she will not back Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) for his current post. She is also using the Pete Buttigieg playbook of flooding the zone media wise. Democrats maintain they are unconcerned with a testy primary and believe it will be a net-positive come general election time. 'I've never been opposed to primaries when I was [DSCC] chair,' said Peters, who chaired the committee in both 2022 and 2024. 'A primary can be constructive. … I would hope they wouldn't cross the line and attack each other, although that's always sometimes difficult. But … a primary can really strengthen a candidate before they get into the real show.' Across the aisle, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is once again the party's top choice to become its nominee. But unlike his 2024 run, he might have a primary on his hands as Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is moving closer to running. Of course, winning in the state will be difficult for any Republican. Michigan has not elected a Republican to the Senate in more than 30 years. New Hampshire is considered a must-win state for Democrats in 2026. And they are breathing easy despite Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D-N.H.) retirement as Rep. Chris Pappas' (D-N.H.) presence gives the party a top-tier candidate. Shaheen, a three-term lawmaker and ex-New Hampshire governor, has been a formidable force in the state's political scene for years and is set to leave a major void in the Democratic-leaning state. However, Democrats remain bullish that the seat will remain in the party's hands. Of all the states on this list, New Hampshire is the only one former Vice President Kamala Harris carried last year. It is also the only one, other than Georgia, that is unlikely to have a knock-out, drag out Democratic primary that could prove damaging in a general election. The major questions reside on the Republican side as former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) is eyeing a second run in the Granite state 12 years after he narrowly lost to Shaheen. According to a source familiar with the ex-senator, Brown is continuing to take a 'hard look' at a bid and has been traveling around the state, attending party events and doing his 'due diligence.' He also was spotted on Capitol Hill making the rounds in March. A decision is expected by early fall. Brown was dogged in his 2014 run over accusations that he was a carpetbagger, having run two years prior for reelection in Massachusetts. Republicans are widely expecting that attack once again, especially in contrast to the Pappas family's longstanding ties to the state. 'The problem is the Pappas family is New Hampshire,' the GOP operative said. What isn't clear is what the GOP's fallback options are in a state where they likely need everything to break right to have a chance. No Republican has nabbed a Senate seat in the state in 15 years, though the party has held the governorship since 2017.


Deccan Herald
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Deccan Herald
Cong leader Baghel seeks answers from govt on Pahalgam, Op Sindoor 'ceasefire'
Speaking at the opposition Congress' 'Jai Hind' rally here on Saturday, former Chhattisgarh chief minister Baghel accused the BJP of politicising Operation Sindoor and asserted the country's armed forces do not belong to any party.


New Indian Express
13 hours ago
- Politics
- New Indian Express
Congress leader Bhupesh Baghel seeks answers from govt on Pahalgam, Operation Sindoor 'ceasefire'
JABALPUR: Congress leader Bhupesh Baghel has said Prime Minister Narendra Modi should explain why there was no security for tourists in Pahalgam, where terrorists attacked them on April 22, and did the government agree to a "ceasefire" with Pakistan under pressure from the United States. Following the horrific Pahalgam attack which claimed 26 lives, India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, striking at terror infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Pakistan. The neighbouring country retaliated with drones and missiles but failed to cause harm. The two nations announced cessation of hostilities on May 10. Speaking at the opposition Congress' 'Jai Hind' rally here on Saturday, former Chhattisgarh chief minister Baghel accused the BJP of politicising Operation Sindoor and asserted the country's armed forces do not belong to any party. The Congress' event coincided with the PM's mega women empowerment event in Bhopal, 300 km from here. "Tell people why there was no security arrangement in Pahalgam. Where are those four terrorists? Was the ceasefire done under pressure from the US and who took the decision on the ceasefire, officers or the government?" Baghel said addressing the gathering.


Politico
16 hours ago
- Politics
- Politico
Tim Walz tells Harris' home-state Dems that 2024 was a ‘primal scream'
ANAHEIM, California — Tim Walz on Saturday delivered blunt advice to fellow Democrats in an address to party activists and officials: 'We've got to find some goddamn guts to fight for working people.' Speaking in former Vice President Kamala Harris' home state, the Minnesota governor told California Democratic Party convention-goers that his and Harris' loss last fall was a clear sign that their party's grasp on working-class voters had slipped. It was the latest in a string of critiques he has issued while traveling the country since November. 'The party of the working class lost a big chunk of the working class,' Walz said. 'That last election was a primal scream on so many fronts.' Of Republican control, he acknowledged: 'Some of it is our own doing.' Walz's tough talk, and an energetic address from New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker earlier in the day, offered each Democrat a chance to court party insiders in the nation's largest blue bastion ahead of a possible presidential run. Walz also made an appearance in South Carolina on Saturday, an early primary state, where he acknowledged mistakes in his fall campaign at a Democratic Party convention. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore spoke Friday at a dinner in South Carolina in a preview of the 2028 presidential primary. Not all Democratic leaders have accepted there needs to be a reckoning after President Donald Trump made inroads with labor. But Trump's success was laid bare when several national unions declined last year to endorse Harris after backing Joe Biden the cycle before. He touted his successes in Minnesota — a signature child tax credit, free school meals and labor union protections — as a roadmap for the party to move forward. In another appeal to labor, he called union members in attendance the 'real VIPs.' Hundreds of attendees watched his half-hour speech, and many of them stood throughout. As he shuffled into the venue, passersby greeted him as 'Coach,' a folksy title he embraced on the trail last year that referenced his past role on a high school football team. He drew loud cheers with a shoutout to Rep. Nancy Pelosi, but the crowd was more muted when Walz expressed gratitude to Harris, saying, 'America is far better off because of her grace, courage and patriotic leadership.' Harris, who is weighing a 2026 bid for governor, did not come to the convention. She spoke only in a pre-recorded video address in which she ripped the Trump administration's tariffs and Congress' votes to cut Medi-Cal funding. She offered no indication of whether she'll run for governor next year or president, again, in 2028. And she did not look back at her bruising defeat last fall. 'What we have seen out of Washington these past few months is the swift implementation of an agenda,' Harris said, 'that dismantles our progress to tackle the climate crisis and stands in the way of our state's leadership on these issues, an agenda that threatens our world class university system.' Hours earlier, Booker told the party faithful that 'we are in a spiritual storm' and leaned into his Christian faith, as he did during his presidential run in 2020 and many times thereafter. He used his remarks to slam 'hypocrites' on the right who, he said, profess to be religious but are less righteous than many atheists he has met. 'I don't understand' people in Congress, he said, 'who say they're Christian evangelicals, but they're the first people to cut food programs for the poor, health care for the sick.' Booker drew some of the most thunderous applause of the weekend at a convention in which many of California's own congressional delegates, including Sen. Adam Schiff and battleground Rep. Derek Tran, spoke. The audience roared especially loudly after Booker quipped about missing the Obama years — and former First Lady Michelle Obama in particular. 'I miss Obama, and I miss her husband too,' Booker said.


The Print
17 hours ago
- Politics
- The Print
Former Chhattisgarh CM Baghel seeks answers on Pahalgam, Op Sindoor ‘ceasefire'
Speaking at the Congress' 'Jai Hind' rally, Baghel, former Chhattisgarh chief minister, also accused the BJP of politicising Operation Sindoor and asserted the country's armed forces do not belong to any party. Following the horrific Pahalgam attack that claimed 26 lives, India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, striking at terror infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Pakistan. The neighbouring country retaliated with drones and missiles but failed to cause harm. The two nations announced cessation of hostilities on May 10. Jabalpur, May 31 (PTI) Congress leader Bhupesh Baghel on Saturday said Prime Minister Narendra Modi should explain why there was no security for tourists in Pahalgam, where the terrorists who attacked them on April 22 vanished, and did the government agree to a 'ceasefire' with Pakistan under the pressure of the United States. The Congress' event coincided with the PM's mega women empowerment event in Bhopal, some 300 kilometres from here. 'Tell people why there was no security arrangement in Pahalgam. Where are those four terrorists? Was the ceasefire done under pressure from the USA and who took the decision on the ceasefire, officers or the government,' Baghel said while addressing the gathering. Baghel's statement came in the backdrop of US President Donald Trump repeatedly asserting that he got India and Pakistan to end hostilities triggered by Operation Sindoor. However, India has stuck to its stand that the US had no role to play. During a rally in Uttar Pradesh's Kanpur on Friday, PM Modi said Pakistan had 'begged' for a ceasefire during Operation Sindoor. The Congress is holding 'Jai Hind Sabhas' across the country to salute the armed forces, while the BJP has been carrying out 'Tiranga Yatras' to celebrate the success of Operation Sindoor. 'BJP is politicising Operation Sindoor. Bharatiya Janata Party activists will distribute vermilion,' he alleged, adding that a woman applies sindoor for her husband's well-being and it is her husband who applies sindoor to her forehead. Notably, the BJP has denied that it was planning to distribute sindoor. 'Our armed forces belong to the whole country and its people, and not just to any political party or government. We all are extremely proud of the bravery and valour of our Army,' Baghel said while asserting that doubts are being raised about the BJP government's decisions and policies. Baghel also lauded former PM Indira Gandhi for emphatically defeating Pakistan in the 1971 war, which led to the creation of Bangladesh. The former Chhattisgarh CM said Modi should apologise for objectionable comments made by Madhya Pradesh minister Vijay Shah and the state's deputy chief minister Jagdish Devda following Operation Sindoor. The PM must set an example by ensuring they are sacked from the MP government, Baghel said. Shah had made an objectionable remark about army officer Colonel Sofiya Qureshi during his speech at a public function at Mhow near Indore on May 12. A FIR has been registered in the matter and both the Supreme Court and MP High Court have severely admonished Shah. On May 16, Devda had claimed armed forces and soldiers of the country were 'natmastak' (bowing down with their heads at the feet) in front of PM Modi for giving a befitting reply to terrorists and Pakistan. He made the comments during his speech at a Civil Defence function in Jabalpur district. Baghel also sought to point out similarities between the Pahalgam terror attack and the infamous May 2013 Jhiram valley attack in Chhattisgarh in which Naxalites killed 27 people including some prominent Congress leaders. 'I remember May 25, 2013….the Naxalites attacked Congress leaders, killing former Union minister Vidya Charan Shukla among others after asking their names,' he said. In Pahalgam, the terrorists asked victims their religion. Another common thing in both incidents was there was no security at the respective spots, he added. 'What is the relation between the two incidents? How they happened calls for pondering,' Baghel said. Speaking at the rally, senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh said those who played no role in India's freedom struggle and remained slaves of the British are today claiming that armed forces are bowing at the feet of PM Modi. PTI COR LAL BNM KRK This report is auto-generated from PTI news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.