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Fibre2Fashion
08-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Conference Board Employment Trends Index for US decreases in April
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) decreased in April to 107.57, from a downwardly revised 108.41 in March. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months. 'The ETI fell in April to its lowest level since October, reflecting growing economic uncertainty,' said Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board . 'While labour market indicators for the private sector largely remained stable in April, consumers and businesses are beginning to anticipate the impact of tariffs and import declines that could materialise over the next month.' The Conference Board ETI for the US fell to 107.57 in April, its lowest since October, signalling rising economic uncertainty. Key drivers included weaker business confidence, falling job openings, and more consumers reporting jobs are hard to get. Despite stable private sector indicators, tariff concerns and supply chain disruptions may soon impact hiring. The share of consumers who report 'jobs are hard to get'—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey —rose for the third consecutive month in April to 16.6 per cent, the highest share since October. The shift in consumers' labour market outlook is part of a broader decline in confidence that saw the Consumer Expectations Index fall in April to its lowest level since October 2011. The share of small firms that report jobs are 'not able to be filled right now' (an ETI component) fell by 6 percentage points to 34 per cent, the lowest mark since September, The Consumer Board said in a press release. 'April's ETI is likely the last result we see before tariff disruptions begin to hit supply chains. Ahead of that, measures of business activity and labour demand largely held firm in data through April,' said Barnes. 'And we're likely to see the continuation of tight labour supply in the US given the aging workforce and limits on immigration.' Real manufacturing and trade sales continued to show post-election strength in the most recently released February data, showing annual growth of 3.2 per cent. The share of involuntary part-time workers declined for the second consecutive month to 17.1 per cent in April after reaching 18 per cent in February, a high since mid-2021. Employment in the temporary-help industry grew by 3,600 in April, its first monthly gain in 2025 partially offsetting 12,900 net losses over January to March. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly over the course of April but the current level of 2,26,000 remains exactly equal to the series' 12-month average, indicating no increasing trend. However, job openings continued to fall through March and may indicate that uncertainty is creating greater hesitation in hiring for businesses. Revisions to job openings in recent months now show a total decline of nearly 8,40,000 since November. 'While confidence in the labour market has slipped, it's still unclear how much of a pullback in hiring or a rise in layoffs we'll see from these anticipated tariff impacts. But it is almost certain that the labour market's streak of resiliency will be tested in the months ahead,' Barnes added. April's decrease in the Employment Trends Index was driven by negative contributions from 4 of its eight components: Percentage of Firms with Jobs Not Able to Fill Right Now, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find 'Jobs Hard to Get,' and Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Billionaire Michael Bloomberg sends hard-nosed message on economy
The U.S. economy could be at a critical point. For years, the U.S. government has embraced breakneck spending, causing larger deficits and soaring debt levels that may require trillions of dollars in interest payments over the coming decades. The economic situation could have a dire impact if it means the government is forced to restructure its debt, something billionaire Ray Dalio has previously risk of a potential economic reckoning isn't lost on those who have seen a thing or two over decades of analyzing markets, including Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire founder of the Bloomberg terminals commonly found on the desks of most major hedge funds, mutual funds, and trading operations. 💵💰Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter 💰💵 Bloomberg recently weighed in on the economic challenges, delivering a blunt assessment that every investor should consider. The Federal Reserve has put itself in a corner. In 2021, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to argue that inflation was transitory, only to backtrack shortly afterward as the Fed embarked on the most restrictive and hawkish monetary policy since Fed Chair Paul Volcker battled inflation in the early war on inflation worked, but it came at a cost. While inflation has retreated below 3% from over 8% in 2022, higher interest rates' impact on economic growth has led to unemployment climbing to 4.1% from 3.5% as recently as 2023. The upturn in joblessness prompted the Fed to lower its benchmark Fed Funds Rate in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, we've yet to see any improvement in the jobs market, and the rate cuts appear to have re-sparked inflation, given the Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 2.8% in February, up from 2.4% in September. Worse, sticky inflation and job loss are coming alongside a deceleration in economic growth. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasts a first-quarter GDP of negative 3.7%. While that's likely to improve as more data becomes available, it appears very likely that the first-quarter GDP will be far shy of the 3.1% pace during the second and third quarters last year. Given consumer confidence levels, matters could get worse. The Conference Board's Consumer Expectations Index is 65, far south of the 80 level that has signaled recessions in the past. The short-term outlook for the economy is tenuous. However, the long-term outlook could be downright Bloomberg has been navigating the markets for a long time. His career stretches back to the late 1960s at Salomon Brothers, and he founded Bloomberg, L.P. in 1981. Since then, Bloomberg, L.P. has grown into one of the biggest and most influential market data companies on the planet, turning him into one of the world's richest people. Bloomberg thinks America's future could be at a critical juncture, and he's not mincing words. 'The US is on course for fiscal breakdown,' wrote Bloomberg in a recent article for his news outlet. 'Unless Congress changes course, there'll be a reckoning, and it will be grim.' Bloomberg's big concern: a mountainous – and growing - pile of debt. 'Deficit spending is more out of control than ever,' said Bloomberg. 'Investors' appetite for US government debt isn't limitless.' The U.S. government spends about $7 trillion annually but only collects about $5 trillion in taxes. As a result, the deficit exceeds 6% of the gross domestic product, or GDP. More experts: Treasury Secretary has blunt 3-word response to stock market drop Fed chairman has blunt 9-word response to recession talk Billionaire Ray Dalio's blunt message on economy turns heads If spending continues unabated, public debt will total 100% of GDP this year and could climb to 118% by 2035. 'A responsible Congress would make deficit reduction its overriding priority,' said Bloomberg. 'Higher tariff revenues won't come close to balancing the books.' President Trump's administration has proposed extending tax cuts from his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is set to expire this year. Bloomberg says doing so could cost $5 trillion over the next decade. While Bloomberg favors keeping aspects of the law, including the larger standard income-tax deduction, he suggests other parts of the law are too costly. 'Congress has already delayed too long, but the cost of delaying further — and worse, compounding the problem with additional deficit spending — will have devastating economic consequences,' said in to access your portfolio
Miami Herald
03-04-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Billionaire Michael Bloomberg sends hard-nosed message on economy
The U.S. economy could be at a critical point. For years, the U.S. government has embraced breakneck spending, causing larger deficits and soaring debt levels that may require trillions of dollars in interest payments over the coming decades. The economic situation could have a dire impact if it means the government is forced to restructure its debt, something billionaire Ray Dalio has previously suggested. Related: Billionaire Ray Dalio's blunt message on economy turns heads The risk of a potential economic reckoning isn't lost on those who have seen a thing or two over decades of analyzing markets, including Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire founder of the Bloomberg terminals commonly found on the desks of most major hedge funds, mutual funds, and trading operations. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Bloomberg recently weighed in on the economic challenges, delivering a blunt assessment that every investor should consider. Bloomberg/Getty Images The Federal Reserve has put itself in a corner. In 2021, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to argue that inflation was transitory, only to backtrack shortly afterward as the Fed embarked on the most restrictive and hawkish monetary policy since Fed Chair Paul Volcker battled inflation in the early 1980s. Related: Jim Cramer offers blunt one-word reaction to 20% tariffs Powell's war on inflation worked, but it came at a cost. While inflation has retreated below 3% from over 8% in 2022, higher interest rates' impact on economic growth has led to unemployment climbing to 4.1% from 3.5% as recently as 2023. The upturn in joblessness prompted the Fed to lower its benchmark Fed Funds Rate in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, we've yet to see any improvement in the jobs market, and the rate cuts appear to have re-sparked inflation, given the Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 2.8% in February, up from 2.4% in September. Worse, sticky inflation and job loss are coming alongside a deceleration in economic growth. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasts a first-quarter GDP of negative 3.7%. While that's likely to improve as more data becomes available, it appears very likely that the first-quarter GDP will be far shy of the 3.1% pace during the second and third quarters last year. Given consumer confidence levels, matters could get worse. The Conference Board's Consumer Expectations Index is 65, far south of the 80 level that has signaled recessions in the past. The short-term outlook for the economy is tenuous. However, the long-term outlook could be downright dangerous. Related: Analyst who predicted 2024 stock market rally offers blunt post 'Liberation Day' forecast Michael Bloomberg has been navigating the markets for a long time. His career stretches back to the late 1960s at Salomon Brothers, and he founded Bloomberg, L.P. in 1981. Since then, Bloomberg, L.P. has grown into one of the biggest and most influential market data companies on the planet, turning him into one of the world's richest people. Bloomberg thinks America's future could be at a critical juncture, and he's not mincing words. "The US is on course for fiscal breakdown," wrote Bloomberg in a recent article for his news outlet. "Unless Congress changes course, there'll be a reckoning, and it will be grim." Bloomberg's big concern: a mountainous – and growing - pile of debt. "Deficit spending is more out of control than ever," said Bloomberg. "Investors' appetite for US government debt isn't limitless." The U.S. government spends about $7 trillion annually but only collects about $5 trillion in taxes. As a result, the deficit exceeds 6% of the gross domestic product, or GDP. More experts: Treasury Secretary has blunt 3-word response to stock market dropFed chairman has blunt 9-word response to recession talkBillionaire Ray Dalio's blunt message on economy turns heads If spending continues unabated, public debt will total 100% of GDP this year and could climb to 118% by 2035. "A responsible Congress would make deficit reduction its overriding priority," said Bloomberg. "Higher tariff revenues won't come close to balancing the books." President Trump's administration has proposed extending tax cuts from his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is set to expire this year. Bloomberg says doing so could cost $5 trillion over the next decade. While Bloomberg favors keeping aspects of the law, including the larger standard income-tax deduction, he suggests other parts of the law are too costly. "Congress has already delayed too long, but the cost of delaying further - and worse, compounding the problem with additional deficit spending - will have devastating economic consequences," said Bloomberg. Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
