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Business Standard
a day ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Data error may have pushed up UK inflation, rate cut bets in April: ONS
The data error means the inflation rate would have been closer to the 3.3 per cent consensus forecast and 3.4 per cent predicted by the central bank Bloomberg Britain's statistics agency said it overstated the official inflation rate due to a mistake in numbers it was given on vehicle taxes, the latest in a string of errors to plague the country's economic data. The Office for National Statistics said Thursday the headline inflation rate was 0.1 per cent higher than it should have been in April's market-rattling figures, as a result of incorrect vehicle excise duty data from the government's transport department. While the ONS will not revise its inflation estimate, it will use the correct data for May. The error may have contributed to the sharp market reaction to April's inflation data. It means that the spike in prices seen in April was less severe than first thought after inflation jumped to a 15-month high of 3.5 per cent. The bigger-than-expected pick-up in price pressures in April's initial data prompted traders to cut bets on an easing in interest rates by the Bank of England. It helped to retrench expectations of fewer reductions after the central bank's hawkish tone at the May meeting. The data error means the inflation rate would have been closer to the 3.3 per cent consensus forecast and 3.4 per cent predicted by the central bank and a plurality of economists including Bloomberg Economics. Markets were little changed following Thursday's statement, fully pricing in one more rate cut for this year. Other volatile factors are thought to have pushed up April's figure with the ONS collecting price data for air fares over Easter when demand spikes. Credibility The error is the latest to undermine the credibility of the UK's official economic statistics after a series of high-profile problems that first hit its labor market statistics before spreading to other numbers. It is the second time in recent months that its price statistics have been affected by errors with the ONS suspending its producer price figures in March. The ONS has faced mounting pressure and is awaiting the outcome of a government probe into its failings. It is also without a permanent head after National Statistician Ian Diamond resigned last month on health grounds. The latest error related to an overstatement of the number of vehicles subject to vehicle excise duty rates applicable in the first year of registration. VED is a tax applied to every vehicle using public roads in the UK, adjusted according to their environmental impact. It is expected to raise over £9 billion ($12.2 billion) in the current fiscal year, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. 'This has the effect of overstating the headline Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and Retail Prices Index (RPI) annual rates by 0.1 percentage points for the year to April 2025 only. No other periods are affected,' the ONS said in a statement. 'We are reviewing our quality assurance processes for external data sources in light of this issue.'
IOL News
28-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Property group urges SARB to cut interest rates for economic growth and job creation
Lower interest rates will reduce the cost of financing homes, thus enabling a higher affordability at a given monthly financing payment. Image: Simphiwe Mbokazi / Independent Newspapers. A South African property group has reiterated its call for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to step in with an interest rate cut as a vital stimulus for economic growth and job creation. National year-on-year house price inflation has maintained a modest pace of 2.8%, according to the latest figures from Lightstone's Property Index. This steady, albeit sluggish, trend is echoed in the RE/MAX National Housing Report for the first quarter of this year, which reveals a 2.1% increase in average house prices compared to the same period in 2024. With Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) sitting close by at 2.7% as of March, these figures paint a nuanced picture of South Africa's residential property landscape. As the economy stands at a pivotal juncture, a robust cut of at least 25 to 50 basis points is not just desirable but a critical imperative, according to Samuel Seeff, chairman of the Seeff Property Group. He said the country simply can no longer bear keeping the interest rate so high for so long. As it is, he said the overly cautious approach by the bank has missed at least two opportunities to provide relief to consumers and the economy. 'The pressing challenge of unemployment simply can no longer wait. A decisive move by the SARB now would signal a commitment to revitalising economic activity. It would also provide much-needed support to businesses and consumers, and facilitate an environment conducive to investment and job creation,' Seeff said. The property group said the case for such monetary easing is strongly supported by the current inflation landscape. It said despite the recent benign increase in inflation to 2.8%, it remains comfortably below the Reserve Bank's 3-6% target range. Despite headwinds out of Washington, it said the rand has also strengthened to below R18 to the US dollar. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad Loading At the time of the open yesterday, the USDZAR traded at R17.88, according to Reezwana Sumad, research analyst at Nedbank CIB. 'The USDZAR traded steadily weaker over the course of the session to close the session at R17.92. Since the close last night, it has traded incrementally weaker, and the USDZAR is trading at R17.98 currently this morning. "The major currency pairs have also lost ground to the USD, with the EURUSD trading at 1,1305 this morning and the GBPUSD at 1,3470. Possible trading range for the USDZAR today(Wednesday) is R17,80 to R18.15,' Sumad said. She added that the local markets have traded cautiously over the week thus far and are likely to remain so ahead of the SARB's MPC. On the international front, she said headlines from the US continue to provide the catalyst for market activity. Seeff said the prevailing remarkably low inflation level indicated that demand-side pressures are relatively subdued and the risks of igniting an inflationary spiral through a rate cut are minimal at this stage. He said the stability of the currency provides further mitigation, thus providing a valuable window for the SARB to implement a more accommodative monetary policy stance that directly benefits the domestic economy. According to data analysed by Lightstone, which evaluated property bought by a natural person and where the transaction was for a single property, young homeowners are entering the market later than they did in the past, and are opting for bonded, secure living. In 2024, people aged between 20-35 (youth) accounted for 30% of residential property purchases, down from 36% in 2019 and 41% in 2014, with tough economic conditions and changing lifestyles cited as the likely reasons behind the shift. While youth accounted for 30% (52 500) of residential property transactions in 2024, it was the second largest group behind the Settled category (36-50) at 43% (76 000). The Mature category (51-64) (38 000) accounted for 21%, while the Pension category (65 and older) accounted for 6% (10 000). While the recent rate cuts have provided some relief, Seeff said the benefits have now been eroded by keeping the interest rate at least 100 basis points above the pre-Covid rate. He said time is ticking and the country simply can no longer wait. Seeff said there is now a golden opportunity for the bank to act boldly within the available monetary policy space to address the urgent needs of economic recovery and expansion without jeopardising its price stability mandate. A rate cut would inject much-needed momentum into the economy by lowering borrowing costs for businesses and stimulating investment while adding more money into the pockets of consumers to spend in the economy, he said. The property group said while a 25bps cut would be most welcome, they urged the Bank to provide a more robust cut of at least 50bps as an immediate injection of economic confidence to kickstart the economy. 'Naturally, the property market, which currently lags the pre-Covid volumes, will also benefit from a more pronounced rate cut. Aside from enabling more first-time property buyers to get into the market, it is an important economic contributor with a significant economic multiplier benefit,' Seeff said. Independent Media Property
Mid East Info
30-04-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
Air Cargo Demand Grows 4.4% in March - Middle East Business News and Information - mid-east.info
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for March 2025 global air cargo markets showing: Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased by 4.4% compared to March 2024 levels (+5.5% for international operations), a historic peak for March. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), expanded by 4.3% compared to March 2024 (+6.1% for international operations). 'March cargo volumes were strong. It is possible that this is partly a front-loading of demand as some businesses tried to beat the well-telegraphed 2 April tariff announcement by the Trump Administration. The uncertainty over how much of the 2 April proposals will be implemented may eventually weigh on trade. In the meantime, the lower fuel costs—which are also a result of the same uncertainty—are a short-term positive factor for air cargo. And, within the temporary pause on implementation we hope that political leaders will be able to shift trade tensions to reliable agreements that can restore confidence in global supply chains,' said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General. Several factors in the operating environment should be noted: March volumes typically rise after a lull in February, and this single-digit increase is in line with pre-COVID growth trends. Jet fuel prices dropped 17.3% year-on-year, marking nine straight months of year-on-year declines. The sharp rise in US tariffs and new trade rules, especially the 2 May ban on duty-free imports from China and Hong Kong, may have prompted companies and buyers to make purchases in advance to avoid significant import fees. World industrial output grew 3.2% year-on-year, and trade volumes expanded 2.9%. Many key Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) indices fell: US inflation was 2.4%, down 0.4 points from February, EU CPI was 2.5% and Japan's rate fell 0.1% to 3.6%. China remains in deflation but this eased to -0.1%. Air cargo market in detail – March 2025 World March 2025 (% year-on-year) share1 March Regional Performance: Asia-Pacific airlines saw 9.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased by 11.3% year-on-year. North American carriers saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased by 6.1% year-on-year. European carriers saw a 4.5% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased 2.0% year-on-year. Middle Eastern carriers saw a -3.2% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased by 0.8% year-on-year. It's possible the weakness in this market is due to year-on-year comparison with the strong growth at the start of 2024 resulting from disruption to Red Sea maritime freight. Latin American carriers saw 5.8% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased 4.7% year-on-year. African airlines saw a -13.4% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in March, the slowest among the regions. Capacity increased by 10.5% year-on-year. Trade Lane Growth: The Europe-North America route was the busiest trade lane in March. The largest trade lane by market share, Asia-North America, also grew strongly, possibly encouraged by front-loading shipments ahead of potential increased tariffs. Europe-Middle East and Africa-Asia were the only trade lanes to decline in March.
Zawya
30-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Air cargo demand grows 4.4% in March
Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for March 2025 global air cargo markets showing: Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased by 4.4% compared to March 2024 levels (+5.5% for international operations), a historic peak for March. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), expanded by 4.3% compared to March 2024 (+6.1% for international operations). 'March cargo volumes were strong. It is possible that this is partly a front-loading of demand as some businesses tried to beat the well-telegraphed 2 April tariff announcement by the Trump Administration. The uncertainty over how much of the 2 April proposals will be implemented may eventually weigh on trade. In the meantime, the lower fuel costs—which are also a result of the same uncertainty—are a short-term positive factor for air cargo. And, within the temporary pause on implementation we hope that political leaders will be able to shift trade tensions to reliable agreements that can restore confidence in global supply chains,' said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General. Several factors in the operating environment should be noted: March volumes typically rise after a lull in February, and this single-digit increase is in line with pre-COVID growth trends. Jet fuel prices dropped 17.3% year-on-year, marking nine straight months of year-on-year declines. The sharp rise in US tariffs and new trade rules, especially the 2 May ban on duty-free imports from China and Hong Kong, may have prompted companies and buyers to make purchases in advance to avoid significant import fees. World industrial output grew 3.2% year-on-year, and trade volumes expanded 2.9%. Many key Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) indices fell: US inflation was 2.4%, down 0.4 points from February, EU CPI was 2.5% and Japan's rate fell 0.1% to 3.6%. China remains in deflation but this eased to -0.1%. March Regional Performance Asia-Pacific airlines saw 9.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased by 11.3% year-on-year. North American carriers saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased by 6.1% year-on-year. European carriers saw a 4.5% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased 2.0% year-on-year. Middle Eastern carriers saw a -3.2% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased by 0.8% year-on-year. It's possible the weakness in this market is due to year-on-year comparison with the strong growth at the start of 2024 resulting from disruption to Red Sea maritime freight. Latin American carriers saw 5.8% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased 4.7% year-on-year. African airlines saw a -13.4% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in March, the slowest among the regions. Capacity increased by 10.5% year-on-year. Trade Lane Growth: The Europe-North America route was the busiest trade lane in March. The largest trade lane by market share, Asia-North America, also grew strongly, possibly encouraged by front-loading shipments ahead of potential increased tariffs. Europe-Middle East and Africa-Asia were the only trade lanes to decline in March. Trade Lane YOY Growth Notes Market Share of Industry Asia-North America +7.3% This route has resumed growth after a revised fall of 0.5% in February 24.4% Europe-Asia +8.3% 25 consecutive months of growth 20.5% Europe-Middle East -7.5% N/A 5.7% Middle East-Asia +2.9% N/A 7.3% Within Asia +5.5% 17 consecutive months of growth 7.0% Europe-North America +8.5% 14 consecutive months of growth 13.3% Africa-Asia -40.2% 4 consecutive months of decline 1.4% Within Europe -5.2% N/A 2.0% *Share is based on full-year 2024 CTKs. -Ends- For more information, please contact: Corporate Communications Email: corpcomms@ About: Explanation of measurement terms: IATA statistics cover international and domestic scheduled air cargo for IATA member and non-member airlines. Total cargo traffic market share by region of carriers in terms of CTK is: Asia-Pacific 34.2%, Europe 21.5%, North America 25.8%, Middle East 13.6%, Latin America 2.9%, and Africa 2.0%. IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 340 airlines comprising over 80% of global air traffic. You can follow us at follow us on X for announcements, policy positions, and other useful industry information.
Daily Mirror
21-04-2025
- Business
- Daily Mirror
'Trapped' pensioner who worked all his life faces terrifying question
Chris Dodson says he is living in 'endless fear' that his rent will be increased again after more than £2,000 in hikes in the past three years - as peers call for more action Chris Dodson says he is living in 'endless fear' that his rent will be increased again after more than £2,000 in hikes in the past three years. The 68-year-old, who lives alone in South East of England, receives around £1,600 per month from state and work pensions but £995 of it is 'swallowed up' in rent. 'My rent has increased relentlessly over the past three years by over £2000,' he told The Mirror. 'The effect is dramatic, half my income is swallowed up. The rest just isn't enough to cover everything else and most months I end up broke.' Chris previously lost his home due to mortgage struggles in 2008 and now rents the property after a fund bought it during the crash. He has faced issues such as high energy bills and repairs that have not been done, including a broken gate that makes him feel unprotected. He said: 'There is no way out, I am trapped. I can't save as there is nothing left to put by. Even if I was offered another property, I have no money to move or pay for those extras you need when moving. 'Unexpected expenses are a major worry. I can't plan for the future just scraping by each over the horizon the endless fear of yet another rent rise. It is pitiless. I think of the 46 years I worked, paying all my dues and wonder what it was for.' The Government is under pressure to amend its renters' rights laws to stop tenants being forced out by huge rent hikes. Peers across political parties have joined forces to demand rent increases be limited to the lowest of either inflation or wage growth, or alternatively the Bank of England Base Rate. Private renting increased by 8.1% in the 12 months to February, more than triple the current level of general inflation. The government's Renters' Rights Bill, which is now passing through the House of Lords, will be scrutinised at committee stage from Tuesday. Ahead of this, peers have supported amendments to introduce limits on how much landlords can hike rents on their tenants. Baroness Janke, a Liberal Democrat Peer, has tabled an amendment which would limit rent rises to the Bank of England Base Rate, with support from Baroness Jones of the Greens. Lord Best, a crossbench peer and former chief executive of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, has tabled an amendment to limit rent rises to Consumer Price Inflation or wage growth, whatever is lower. This amendment would allow landlords to reset the rent to the market rate every four years and is supported by Tory peer Lord Young of Cookham and Lib Dem peers Baroness Thornhill and Baroness Grender. A maximum of four Peers can support any one amendment. A similar amendment was tabled, and rejected, when the renters' rights legislation passed through the Commons. Generation Rent, who surveyed nearly a 1,000 of its supporters in the Autumn, found that more than three in five (61%) renters said their landlord had asked them to pay a higher rent in the previous 12 months. Almost a quarter (24%) of respondents said they received a rent hike of over £100, compared to just 9% in a similar survey in July 2022. Meanwhile, respondents reported spending an average of 39% of their income on rent. Labour 's renters' rights legislation will finally bring an end to section 21 no-fault evictions - a promise first made by the Tories in 2019 which they failed to deliver on. The notices, which are considered a major driver of homelessness, allow landlords to evict renters either after a fixed term tenancy ends or during a tenancy with no fixed end date. Campaigners have hailed the ban but warn that large rent hikes could effectively still lead to no-fault evictions. Ben Twomey, Chief Executive at Generation Rent, said: 'Everyone needs a safe, secure and affordable home, it's the foundation of our lives. While price caps rightly exist for our energy and water bills, there is nothing to stop a landlord suddenly hiking the cost of someone's home. Unchecked rent hikes are forcing people into poverty and homelessness." He added: 'The ending of Section 21 'no fault' evictions is a milestone to be celebrated after a decade of Generation Rent campaigning. But some landlords will inevitably start using unaffordable rent hikes as 'no fault' evictions in all but name, dampening the impact of this major reform.' An MHCLG spokesman said: 'Our Renters' Rights Bill will deliver a long overdue transformation of private renting by strengthening tenants' rights and banning section 21 'no fault' evictions. We do not support rent controls. We are taking action to cap advance payments to one month's rent, end unfair bidding wars, and give tenants stronger powers to challenge excessive rent hikes. 'Boosting supply is the most effective way of improving affordability for renters, and we will deliver this by building 1.5 million homes as part of our Plan for Change.'
