Latest news with #ConsumerSentiment
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
The Economy, Summer Plans, and The Polls
Around Memorial Day, pollsters often ask Americans about their summer vacation plans. Responses are a rough barometer of feelings about the economy's health and our own prospects. What have we learned from recent polls? Will most Americans take a summer vacation? Last week the University of Michigan released its latest Consumer Sentiment Index, reporting that sentiment was 'unchanged' from April, ending four consecutive months of 'plunging declines.' Michigan attributed the change to the pause at the time of the survey in Donald Trump's on-again, off-again tariff pronouncements. Gallup reported that overall assessments of the economy were 'unchanged' from early 2025 readings. In the May Harvard Center for American Political Studies/Harris poll, 51% of registered voters described the economy as strong for the first time since July 2021, while almost as many, 49%, described it as weak. Most people in another question said their personal financial situation was weak (39%), but that represented an improvement from Harvard/Harris polls during the winter. Thirty-four percent said their situation was improving and 27% thought it was staying the same. In late May, CBS News/YouGov reported that Americans' views about the economy were a bit 'brighter' than they were this winter, but still more negative (54%) than positive (39%). In their February and March polls, a third were positive. CBS added more detail to the overall assessments. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said the prices they were paying for goods and services have gone up in the past few weeks, 30% believed it had stayed the same, and 11% reported it had gone down. Only 24% thought their income was keeping up with inflation. Gas prices are among the most sensitive political indicators, and a bare plurality in the poll said they are staying the same in their area (37%), while 30% thought they were going up, and 11% down. Of those planning to take a summer vacation, 89% said they would be doing so by road/car, Americans' most familiar mode of transportation. In the CBS poll, 43% said they planned to take a summer vacation this year, up from 39% in 2024. A substantial majority say they will not take a vacation (57%), with plans to stay at home. Using a different approach, a new Ipsos poll found that 58% said they plan to go on an overnight trip of more than 100 miles this summer, 47% travel by plane domestically, and 27% travel by plane internationally. Sixty-one percent said they would take a vacation to unplug and get away from it all, down from 69% in 2024. And where would Americans like to go? In 2016, the Roper Center at Cornell looked at public interest in traveling to our national parks and reported that in 1955, 15% told Gallup they would visit a national park. When asked in the same poll what national parks they had ever visited, 15% said the Great Smoky Mountains followed by 11% the Grand Canyon and 10% Yosemite. With the availability and ease of car travel and the growing importance of recreation and conservation in our lives, Roper reported that '[b]y 2001, a Los Angeles Times [poll] found that 72% had made a visit' to a national park. In 2024, a record 332 million people visited a national park. Last summer, when the Pew Research Center asked about the public's views of 16 different federal government agencies, the National Park Service had the highest favorable rating (76%). Republicans and Democrats gave similar responses. Only 7% rated the agency unfavorably. There is some tentative evidence that Donald Trump's approval rating is inching up, and the perception that the economy is no longer declining (or at least leveling off) may be the reason. Less disruption from tariffs could be contributing. When asked by Harvard/Harris about Trump's biggest failure or mistake thus far in his second term, the top response at 26% was 'tariffs that disrupted the economy.' Even with the tariff chaos and uncertainty of the past few months, people still view Republicans as better stewards of the economy than Democrats. In a new CNN poll, more people said the Republican Party's views on the economy (38%) were closer to their own than the Democratic Party's views (31%). This was also the case in three earlier polls since the spring of 2022. Taking a vacation rests on assessments of the economic situation among other things, and uncertainty appears to be dampening summer holiday plans in 2025. If our national parks are short-staffed, the public is likely to notice.
Bloomberg
27-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Fed's Barkin on Path for Economy Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin discusses the outlook for the US economy and current business and consumer sentiment with Matt Miller, Katie Greifeld and Mike McKee on "Bloomberg Open Interest." (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg
17-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Grim Outlooks Take Over Results as Tariff Disruptions Surface
One thing is clear as the first-quarter earnings season draws to a close: The uncertain outlook for the global economy is superseding better-than-feared results even as stocks rally on signs of easing trade tensions. Corporations across the US, Europe and China are pulling their forecasts for the year or providing grim outlooks, citing rising costs, weak consumer sentiment and a lack of business confidence as a result of President Donald Trump's worldwide trade offensive.
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street advances on trade hopes, data shows investor pessimism
STORY: U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with the Dow gaining more than three quarters of a percent, the S&P 500 climbing seven-tenths of a percent and the Nasdaq adding half a percent. All three main indexes boasted weekly gains after starting off with a steep rally on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause in their escalating trade war. Stocks briefly lost ground early Friday when the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment survey slumped to its second lowest level ever, with consumers' one-year inflation expectations surging to 7.3%. Melissa Brown, managing director of investment decision research at Simcorp, said she was surprised to see stocks rally despite the downbeat report. "It's difficult to determine why investors remain so enthusiastic - with the exception of maybe, you know, because stocks have been up on positive news about tariffs for a few weeks. And so it could be that stocks have the wind at their backs, and investors are just not that worried about one consumer sentiment number." Stocks on the move Friday included UnitedHealth Group which rose nearly 6.5% after eight straight days of steep losses. Investors were warily expecting strategic changes at the insurer after the Wall Street Journal reported it was under a criminal probe by the Justice Department. Shares of Applied Materials slipped more than 5% after the provider of equipment for chip manufacturing missed estimates for second-quarter revenue. Charter Communications shares rose nearly 2% after the cable company said it would buy privately held rival Cox Communications for nearly $22 billion. And shares of Verizon Communications rose after the Federal Communications Commission said it was approving Verizon's $20 billion purchase of fiber-optic internet provider Frontier Communications after the largest U.S. telecom company agreed to end its diversity, equity and inclusion programs. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
16-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Grim Outlooks Take Centerstage as Tariffs Loom: Earnings Watch
One thing is clear as the first-quarter earnings season draws to a close: The uncertain outlook for the global economy is superseding better-than-feared results even as stocks rally on signs of easing trade tensions. Corporations across the US, Europe and China are pulling their forecasts for the year or providing grim outlooks, citing rising costs, weak consumer sentiment and a lack of business confidence as a result of President Donald Trump's worldwide trade offensive.
