23-06-2025
Bond Traders Look to Fed Officials for Clues on Rate Cut Timing
(Bloomberg) -- Bond investors are on alert for hints on when the Federal Reserve will deliver the two 2025 interest-rate cuts officials projected at their latest policy meeting.
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They'll also closely watch geopolitical developments after the US attacked nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend.
Traders have been pricing in a solid chance that officials deliver a quarter-point reduction at their September meeting. Speeches by Fed officials and a reading of the central bank's preferred gauge of inflation may help them hone the timing further.
Chair Jerome Powell will testify before lawmakers Tuesday and Wednesday as part of the central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report. The Treasury will sell $69 billion two-year, $70 billion five-year and $44 billion seven-year notes in the latest test of investor demand for US debt.
What to Watch
Economic data:
June 23: S&P Global US manufacturing, services, composite PMIs; existing home sales
June 24: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity' current account balance; FHFA house price index; S&P CoreLogic CS HPI; Richmond Fed manufacturing index and business conditions; Conference board consumer confidence
June 25: MBA mortgage applications; new home sales; building permits
June 26: Advance goods trade balance, imports and exports; initial jobless claims; wholesale and retail inventories; GDP Annualized QoQ (1Q); GDP price index (1Q); personal consumption (1Q); core PCE price index (1Q); Chicago Fed national activity index; durable and capital goods orders; pending home sales; Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity
June 27: Personal income and spending; PCE price index and core PCE; Bloomberg June US economic survey; U. of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations; Kansas City Fed services activity
Fed calendar:
June 23: Fed governor Christopher Waller; Vice chair for supervision Michelle Bowman; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee; New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler
June 24: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack; Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the House committee on financial services; Williams; Boston Fed President Susan Collins; Fed Governor Michael Barr
June 25: Powell testifies before Senate committee on banking, housing, and urban affairs
June 26: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin; Hammack; Barr
June 27: Williams, Fed Governor Lisa Cook; Hammack
Auction calendar:
June 23: 13-, 26-week bills
June 24: 6-week bills, two-year notes
June 25: 17-week bills; two-year floating rate notes; five-year notes
June 26: 4-, 8-week bills; seven-year notes
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