Latest news with #Cowperthwaite
The Diplomat
04-08-2025
- Business
- The Diplomat
Let's Get Rid of Economic Data For a Few Years
I recently came across a marvelous book, Neil Monnery's 'Architect of Prosperity: Sir John Cowperthwaite and the Making of Hong Kong,' a biography of Hong Kong's financial secretary, who introduced most of the city's free-market reforms in the 1960s. 'We suffer a great deal today from the bogus certainties and precisions of the pseudo-sciences, which include all the social sciences, including economics,' was Cowperthwaite's blunt appraisal of his era – and which one would happily apply to our present era, too. 'I myself tend to mistrust the judgment of anyone not involved in the actual process of risk-taking.' One of Cowperthwaite's bright ideas was to prevent the collection of most economic data for fear that someone might try to do something with it. Any meaningless fluctuation, he reasoned, would encourage bureaucrats to needlessly meddle, while any period of growth might convince businesses that they no longer needed to innovate. When he was once asked how developing countries should improve their economies, he replied: 'They should abolish the office of national statistics.' Should Cowperthwaite's example be attempted again? Suppose a Southeast Asian government were to ban the collection of most economic data for a few years. Come January, we would not know how much GDP had grown the previous year, nor whether overall trade was up and down, nor which sectors were doing well or poorly. We would have no way of knowing whether its economy was doing any better than its neighbors, nor would foreign investors possess a simplistic (and often faulty) reasoning for picking a certain country. (Perhaps some data needs to be collected for the credit rating agencies and public debt, although such information would ideally be kept from most ministries.) I think this would have some benefits. Most obviously, it would require far more inventive means of information-seeking. Deprived of spreadsheets, bureaucrats and politicians would be compelled to converse more regularly with workers, managers, investors, and company owners to ascertain what was happening in a particular sector of the economy. From these, they might gather information that aggregated data cannot provide. And in doing so, they might also discover innovative solutions to problems that they never knew existed. Anecdotal information often trumps statistics when it comes to identifying fixes for future events. After all, most economic data is collected to justify, not to inform; it exists to prove something has worked, rather than explaining why it worked or whether it will continue to work. That a country's GDP grew by 4 or 5 or 6 percent last year indicates that something went well, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it will continue to go well or that it won't produce an unintended consequence. (Running a massive trade surplus made economic sense until Donald Trump came along, for instance.) Moreover, ever-greater streams of statistics tend to lead to risk aversion, as Cowperthwaite reasoned decades ago. Like computers, most bureaucrats are incapable of thinking – as the British economist John Kay would say – obliquely. Just as SatNavs will only inform you of car routes based on the single metric of speed (rather than simplicity, quality of petrol stations, or bucolicness), once armed with data, bureaucracies focus on specific metrics. This isn't their fault. Data provides protection. If the existing information suggests a policy or intervention should work and it doesn't, then you're going to face much less censure than had you attempted something that went against the data. After all, fail conventionally and you get sympathy; fail unconventionally and you get blamed. Most economic data also produces odd incentives. Due to our fixation on aggregation, governments are motivated to boost GDP (which is easily measurable) but not individual wealth (which is far more subjective). Take this example. Between 1991 and 2024, Cambodia's GDP per capita surged from $267 to around $2,500. Although the figures are opaque, I believe I'm right in saying that private debt has increased from almost nothing a few decades ago to at least $3,000 per capita. No economist would even bother asking the question, but it seems somewhat helpful to ponder whether this means the average Cambodian has actually gotten any wealthier over the past four decades of economic growth. With enough time, one could make a compelling argument that nearly all the financial gains from the last three decades of development have been eroded by the metastasizing extractive, rentier sectors of the economy. However, I don't think data can ever provide an answer to my question. But anecdotally, you could easily discover whether most people think they have become richer. H.L Mencken once joked that a wealthy man is one who earns $100 a year more than his wife's sister's husband. Perhaps the gag is now a little outdated (although I'm not sure similar competition exists between women and their brothers-in-law's wives), yet it does highlight that wealth is not only relative but also dependent on perception. I've long harbored the suspicion that most Southeast Asian governments would prefer to see Singapore suffer an economic crisis and a whopping fall in GDP rather than for every country in the region to have an okay year. Likewise, on paper, it's better to earn $100,000 a year even if you live in an area where everyone else is unemployed than to earn $30,000 but live in a place where your neighbors take home about the same. But the higher-earner walks out of his door to find boarded-up shops and menacing neighbors, whereas the lower-earner can at least expect his neighborhood to have some decent restaurants and cafes. On a good month, I might slip into the global top 2 or 3 percent of earners. But within the country where I live, I'm stolidly middling. Indeed, try telling the average American that they're part of 'The Global One Percent.' It doesn't compute, since it's an evolutionary impulse to compare ourselves to our immediate neighbors, not strangers halfway across the world. I cannot find any research on it, but I would be interested in knowing how most people compare their social and financial progress over time. Do people judge their existing level of wealth by how much they had five years ago, ten years ago, or their financial situation in childhood? Anyway, while some folks argue that instead of GDP, countries should adopt a Bhutan-style Gross National Happiness score, perhaps it's wiser to stop trying to quantify and metricize and focus instead on anecdotes.
Daily Record
14-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Daily Record
Netflix fans have just days left to see 'must watch' documentary that changed everything
Centred around the captivity of Tilikum, an orca that was blamed for the deaths of three humans, Blackfish speaks to the consequences of keeping these wild creatures in captivity and features footage from some of the actual attacks. 'You won't forget Cowperthwaite's documentary, and you shouldn't,' says one critic of the 2013 documentary film, Blackfish. Having premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January, 2013, Blackfish was picked up by CNN Films and Magnolia Pictures for a wider release. So impactful was Gabriela Cowperthwaite's Blackfish, it was nominated for the BAFTA Award for Best Documentary. Slated to leave Netflix on 1 June, viewers only have a few days left to catch this cinematically gut-wrenching offering. Centred around the captivity of Tilikum, an orca that was blamed for the deaths of three humans, Blackfish speaks to the consequences of keeping these beautiful, wild creatures in captivity. Featuring footage from some of the actual attacks, the documentary also includes coverage from 1983 — the year Tilikum was captured off the coast of Iceland. Lending an insight into the orca's purported harassment by fellow captive orcas at Sealand, Blackfish sees Cowperthwaite arguing about the contribution of these incidents to Tilikum's fatal aggression. The documentary film also features footage of Tilikum's attacks on trainers and other orcas in captivity, as well as interviews from witnesses and SeaWorld trainers. Cowperthwaite began working on the film following the death of Tilikum's trainer, Dawn Brancheau, in February 2010. The incident sparked speculation that the orca had targeted Brancheau because she wore her hair in a ponytail. Cowperthwaite contended that this was mere conjecture and believed that "there had to be more to this story." The vice president for zoological operations at SeaWorld San Diego - Michael Scarpuzzi, said Blackfish had misused Brancheau's death and its gruesome details not to 'inform the public, but, rather regrettably, because of the desire to sensationalize." He said in a statement: "We have altered how we care for, display and train these extraordinary animals. We have changed the facilities, equipment and procedures at our killer whale habitats. The care and educational presentation of these animals at SeaWorld has been made safer than ever. Does Blackfish inform its viewers of that fact? No, it does not." Critic and audience reviews for the documentary were filled with praise, as people connected to the heartbreaking subject matter of Blackfish. One critic said: 'That Blackfish led SeaWorld to phase out both orca breeding and performances speaks to how we should view the film's legacy over ten years later.' Another one called it: 'An illuminating documentary not only about the cruel conditions that killer whales endure at theme parks such as SeaWorld, but the biology and psychology of the mysterious and majestic sea wolf.' While one review said: 'There are few movies that can change the way you see the world in 83 minutes. If Blackfish is seen by enough people, it has the power to affect attendance at SeaWorld,' another said: '[It] remains decidedly one-sided. But when that "side" is such a vital, convincing proponent for the greater protection and understanding of such evolved and majestic creatures, it can't help but win.' Audiences were blown away by Cowperthwaite's film, as one detailed review said: 'While walking through the St. Louis Zoo recently, my mind kept coming back to this wonderful documentary about the controversial captivity of killer whales used in theme parks, particularly Sea World. And looking into the eyes of the animals we passed, I found my heart breaking just a little. This film has forever altered my feelings about animal confinement for human enjoyment, and that's the mark of a powerful movie. 'The story of an orca named Tilikum, who ended up killing three people, including a whale trainer, is one I will never forget. And the interviews with witnesses and experts are not only informative but often heartrending. I'm an animal lover, not necessarily an animal LOVER, but this documentary gave me a new appreciation and even respect for the creatures around us and how humans often exploit them.' Another viewer said: 'I tear up every time I watch this, so gut-wrenching but so good. It makes me angry about the world and how humans exploit animals, but it also makes me happy to see the people who truly care. This is a MUST SEE!!' One audience review of the documentary bluntly said: 'Really, really, really f*cking disturbing and disgusting. So many moments where it was borderline too hard to watch, but it had to be seen so we could get the intended message and effect.'
