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The Market Online
4 days ago
- Business
- The Market Online
Almonty shares are unstoppable! Tungsten price hits 12-year high! Are analysts too conservative?
The commodity stock of the year is poised for its next leap: Almonty Industries (TSX:AII). Yesterday, the tungsten gem surged above EUR 2, reaching a new all-time high. However, this is likely a stopover on the road to revaluation. Analysts continue to see 80% upside potential. There are both short- and long-term price drivers: Tungsten appears to be overtaking rare earths in terms of desirability and scarcity. China is limiting exports and driving the price to a 12-year high. The US is alarmed and buying tungsten on a large scale. Almonty is the direct beneficiary. Experts are calling the latest deal with a US defense contractor 'unprecedented.' Almonty is about to bring the largest tungsten mine outside of China into operation, plans a NASDAQ listing, and aims to add molybdenum to its portfolio. Are the analysts' estimates too conservative? Will a complete takeover follow? Tungsten prices explode, and the US secures capacity Reports from the Critical Minerals Institute (Link) highlight the critical situation for tungsten and, at the same time, the opportunity for Almonty shareholders. The institute reported on this in its latest series of events. Tungsten is now eclipsing traditional critical metals such as gallium, cobalt, and rare earths. Tungsten attracted a full house and more questions from the audience than any other topic. Concentrate prices up 26% since January to a 12-year high The price trend can no longer be ignored. After Beijing tightened export restrictions in April, Chinese concentrate prices – the country accounts for 80% of global tungsten production – shot up to a 12-year high. Since January alone, they have risen by 26% to around USD 20,400 per tonne. Tungsten alert in the US and no futures market Since tungsten is essential for defense equipment and electronic components, there is now a sense of alarm in the US and likely throughout the Western world. For example, the US Defense Logistics Agency plans to purchase up to 4.5 million pounds of tungsten metal this year, 50% more than last year. The situation is expected to tighten even further due to the US Congress's directive. Starting in 2027, suppliers to the US Department of Defense will no longer be allowed to source tungsten from China or Russia. As there are no functioning futures markets for tungsten, minimum price clauses are now used in practice. Almonty Industries, for example, recently signed a purchase agreement for concentrate from its new mine in South Korea with US defense contractor Tungsten Parts Wyoming. The minimum price is USD 235/mtu, while the upside potential is unlimited. The Critical Minerals Institute calls the deal 'unprecedented.' It shows that tungsten producers have the upper hand. Almonty: Super tungsten mine comes at the right time The situation makes it clear that Almonty (TSX:AII) is finishing its Sangdong mine in South Korea at precisely the right time. After years of development, the mine is scheduled to start production this summer and ramp up to an annual output of 4,600 tons within 12 months. This should cover up to 40% of non-Chinese global production. Incidentally, the total resource is estimated at 50 million tons. With an average tungsten content of 0.43%, Sangdong is also high-grade. By comparison, the content at Almonty's profitable Panasqueira mine in Portugal is 0.14%. Estimates by Sphene Capital Price drivers: Mine opening, NASDAQ listing, molybdenum In addition to geopolitics, Almonty shares also have 'organic' price drivers. First, of course, is the opening of Sangdong. Analysts at Sphene Capital expect Almonty's revenue to skyrocket to CAD 483.4 million by 2027. Earnings per share are then expected to be CAD 0.51 per share. This already shows that the stock is still not expensive at just over CAD 3. In addition, analyst estimates are likely to be based on lower tungsten prices. And Almonty has another ace up its sleeve: molybdenum. This rare heavy metal has been discovered in the immediate vicinity of the Sangdong mine. Here, too, a supply contract has already been signed with a global corporation at a minimum price. Once in full production, 5,600 tons of molybdenum are expected to be mined annually. In the short term, the relocation of the Company's headquarters to the US and the upcoming NASDAQ listing – the exact date is not yet known – will also likely drive the share price further. This could also give rise to takeover speculation. Estimates by Sphene Capital Analyst target too low? Sphene Capital recommends Almonty shares as a 'Buy' with a price target of CAD 5.40 Click here for the link to the study. This would still give new investors a chance of an 80% gain. But it does not have to stop there. The analyst estimates should have room for improvement. The study was prepared when tungsten prices were still significantly lower. In addition, revenues and profits from the molybdenum project will likely be added. Conclusion: Revaluation far from complete Overall, Almonty shares still appear attractive. There are many arguments in favor of rising prices: The commissioning of Sangdong and the NASDAQ listing are expected to catapult the Company into a new league in the short term. The expansion opportunities for the mine in Portugal and the molybdenum project, for example, should further boost medium-term revenue and profit forecasts. Conflict of interest Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as 'Relevant Persons') may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a 'Transaction'). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company. In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships. For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest. The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies. Risk notice Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such. The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user. The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use. This is third-party provided content issued on behalf of Almonty Industries Inc., please see full disclaimer here.
Telegraph
17-04-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Donald Trump's mysterious obsession with Ukraine's shale gas reserves
Donald Trump has softened his plan to seize the commodity resources of Ukraine very slightly. The draft remains a coercive document, a pseudo-contractual expropriation of a victim nation with its back to the wall. Ukraine's leaders finally seem resigned to accepting an ultimatum that has no peacetime precedent in modern state relations, putting the best face on the lesser of two evils. 'The basic legal stuff is almost ready. If everything moves constructively, the agreement will bring economic gains to both our countries,' said Volodymyr Zelensky. He can reasonably hope that the political weather will have changed in Washington long before the offending clauses start to bite, or at least that the American people will remember their noble tradition of generosity and fair play. The White House has at last understood that Ukraine's critical minerals are an enormous red herring. The $24 trillion (£18 trillion) figure floated by fantasists is for comic books. 'This whole story is insanity. There are no rare deposits of any commercial value in Ukraine,' said Jack Lifton, head of the Critical Minerals Institute. 'The claims are based on Soviet information that we can't trust. The country has never mined rare earths or developed the processing industry, and without that the rock is worthless. The same goes for Greenland, where there is no power, no water, no skills, and it is so expensive that the Chinese gave up trying,' he said. 'America already has the world's richest deposits at Mountain Pass, and we have Canada next door loaded with rare earths. What the US needs for national security is to develop its own downstream industry and to stop sending our output to China for processing,' he said. The real resource prize in Ukraine is natural gas. Andríy Kóbolyev, ex-head of Ukraine's energy giant Naftogaz, told me that exploitable shale reserves in the Dnipro-Donetsk basin may be much larger than generally thought. 'We could replace half the lost Russian gas exports to Europe,' he said. 'The conventional plays are depleted but we are sitting on the best shale table in the world. It is even better than the [American] Permian Basin in thickness and porosity,' he said.
Yahoo
17-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Donald Trump's mysterious obsession with Ukraine's shale gas reserves
Donald Trump has softened his plan to seize the commodity resources of Ukraine very slightly. The draft remains a coercive document, a pseudo-contractual expropriation of a victim nation with its back to the wall. Ukraine's leaders finally seem resigned to accepting an ultimatum that has no peacetime precedent in modern state relations, putting the best face on the lesser of two evils. 'The basic legal stuff is almost ready. If everything moves constructively, the agreement will bring economic gains to both our countries,' said Volodymyr Zelensky. He can reasonably hope that the political weather will have changed in Washington long before the offending clauses start to bite, or at least that the American people will remember their noble tradition of generosity and fair play. The White House has at last understood that Ukraine's critical minerals are an enormous red herring. The $24 trillion (£18 trillion) figure floated by fantasists is for comic books. 'This whole story is insanity. There are no rare deposits of any commercial value in Ukraine,' said Jack Lifton, head of the Critical Minerals Institute. 'The claims are based on Soviet information that we can't trust. The country has never mined rare earths or developed the processing industry, and without that the rock is worthless. The same goes for Greenland, where there is no power, no water, no skills, and it is so expensive that the Chinese gave up trying,' he said. 'America already has the world's richest deposits at Mountain Pass, and we have Canada next door loaded with rare earths. What the US needs for national security is to develop its own downstream industry and to stop sending our output to China for processing,' he said. The real resource prize in Ukraine is natural gas. Andríy Kóbolyev, ex-head of Ukraine's energy giant Naftogaz, told me that exploitable shale reserves in the Dnipro-Donetsk basin may be much larger than generally thought. 'We could replace half the lost Russian gas exports to Europe,' he said. 'The conventional plays are depleted but we are sitting on the best shale table in the world. It is even better than the [American] Permian Basin in thickness and porosity,' he said. He added: 'The potential is huge if the right companies come in to explore and drill with new technology. You can do 30 to 50 fracks per well these days. We're still just doing one or two.' Kóbolyev said Ukrainian Energy conducted a detailed study of the Yuzivska basin in north-east Ukraine and concluded that gas could be extracted at one third of the cost of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported from Qatar or the US. 'All the pipeline infrastructure is already there from Soviet days so it is a very attractive play,' he said. The organic carbon content of the best Ukrainian field is 7.6pc and the porosity is 9pc. Both are well above levels in the prolific Marcellus basin in the US. The layers are 100 metres thick. 'Whoever is advising the Americans knows this country very well. My impression is that they are probably Russian: they know exactly what they are doing, and where to apply political pressure,' he said. The mystery is what Trump hopes to gain from a shale boom in Ukraine. The gas would undercut and knock out expensive American exports of LNG to Europe, which Trump is also pushing hard. It sits oddly with parallel US-Russian talks to revive the Baltic Nord Stream pipelines and restore Siberian gas flows to Europe, with Trump-friendly companies taking a big slice of the business. The story makes sense only if there is fast-growing demand for gas in Europe and the world. But the EU's energy agency says Europe's gas use has peaked and will go into mechanical decline as the region adds 70 gigawatts of renewable power each year. China is moving at breakneck speed to end reliance on seaborne hydrocarbons as a national security imperative. It is instead marrying coal with wind, solar and nuclear, aiming to achieve total energy independence as an electro-state. The International Energy Agency predicts a global gas glut by the late 2020s. It says LNG will never be competitive at scale for power plants in India or much of the global south. In my view, data centres will not change the equation once superconducting technology hits the market. It is one thing for Zelensky to swallow the bitter pill and let the Trump administration play its dirty commercial game, whatever that may be. It is another to persuade feisty Ukrainian lawmakers to ratify what looks to many like a double injury: a colonial land grab and a strategic sell-out wrapped in one. Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff has business ties to Russian oligarchs. He has already endorsed the sham referenda of the four annexed oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, and has rhetorically ceded large swaths of territory that Putin is not close to conquering. 'It is going to be a very hard sell,' said Tim Ash, from Chatham House. 'I can't see the Rada [Ukraine's parliament] voting for a deal that is nothing more than extortion, and gives Ukraine nothing in terms of its security.' The document says the US-Ukraine investment fund will control all infrastructure in Ukraine linked to natural resources, including roads, rail, pipelines, ports, terminals, refineries, LNG facilities, etc. It will control 'critical minerals, oil, natural gas, fuels or other hydrocarbons and other extractable materials'. The US will have three of the five board members and the first right of refusal on all projects. It has authority to examine the books of any Ukrainian agency whenever it wants. It can veto sales of Ukraine's resources to Europe. The US puts up no money. It offers no security guarantee. It is still unclear whether the final draft splits the royalties 50:50 between the US and Ukraine from the outset, or whether the Americans will receive all the revenue until Ukraine has paid off a putative 'war debt' of $100bn to the US, with 4pc interest added. This war debt clause in the earlier drafts was self-evidently absurd. No company will invest billions upfront if the entire profit for years to come goes to the US government. The sorry saga is a strategic debacle. Russia is in scarcely better shape than it was in early 1917. The US defence intelligence agency says Vladimir Putin's motley forces are facing operational disintegration and cannot keep going for more than a few months. The Kremlin's rainy day fund has run out of money. Oil is in a structural bear market. Analysts are pencilling in $50 a barrel. Russia's deformed Keynesian war economy coming apart at the seams. Sir Richard Dearlove, ex-head of MI6, says the West just has to wait a little, tighten the screws at the right moment, and Putin will be forced to the table on our terms. Instead Trump has offered him a real estate joint venture. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Yahoo
14-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Global Tactical Metals Corp. Joins Critical Minerals Institute Amid Soaring Demand for Strategic Metals
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - April 14, 2025) - Global Tactical Metals Corp. (CSE: MONI) (FSE: A7F) ("Global Tactical Metals Corp." or the "Company") is pleased to become a member of the Critical Minerals Institute. The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) is a global organization dedicated to informing, educating, and guiding businesses, governments, and stakeholders on issues critical to the sustainable development and strategic sourcing of critical minerals essential to technological and industrial advancement. CMI provides unique insights and resources, including Masterclasses and the weekly Technology Metals Report (TMR). The Critical Minerals Institute has just announced its long-awaited CMI Critical Minerals List 2025, spotlighting 23 minerals that underpin the technological, economic, and strategic imperatives of a rapidly evolving global landscape. This release comes at a time of accelerating economic transition-driven by electrification, decarbonization, and digital infrastructure-and increasing geopolitical complexity. The list is the result of an extensive analysis of a dozen national critical mineral strategies from leading economies and alliances, including the United States, Canada, Australia, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and NATO. From 55 unique minerals identified globally, the CMI's selection highlights those appearing on at least 7 of the 12 lists, offering an evidence-based snapshot of the minerals deemed most vital for future resilience, security, and industrial leadership. "Joining the Critical Minerals Institute aligns with our broader mission of playing an active role in North America's critical minerals future," said Kelly Abbott, CEO of Global Tactical. "As geopolitical pressures and economic shifts accelerate demand for secure, domestic supply chains, organizations like CMI are crucial for bridging industry insight with policy momentum. We're excited to contribute to this important dialogue and help shape the path forward." Critical Minerals List: On behalf of the Board of Directors,Global Tactical Metals Corp. Kelly AbbottCEO Phone: +1 877-892-7633Website: About Global Tactical Metals Corp. Global Tactical Metals Corp. is focused on acquiring, exploring, and advancing mineral properties that address critical resource needs in North America. The Company holds a 100% interest in the St. Anthony Property, a highly prospective mineral asset in Newfoundland, Canada, positioned in a region known for its rich mineral potential. The Company has also significantly expanded its exploration portfolio with a substantial land package staked in Darling Township, southeastern Ontario-approximately 300 km east-northeast of Toronto. This property, now exceeding 1,400 hectares, targets critical mineral exploration with a primary focus on antimony, a vital element for renewable energy, defense, and electronics industries. In addition, Global Tactical Metals Corp. has extended its strategic footprint into the United States by staking the Green Mine, a past-producing antimony deposit in Nevada, further strengthening its commitment to securing critical mineral resources. Forward Looking Statement Certain information contained in this news release constitutes forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws. Any statements that are not historical facts may be considered forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are often identified by terms such as "may," "should," "anticipate," "expect," "potential," "believe," "intend," or similar expressions. These statements relate to future events or future performance and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding: The exploration and development of the Company's mineral properties, including the St. Anthony Property, the Ontario claims, and the newly staked Green Mine; The potential value and economic viability of these mineral assets; The growing demand for antimony and its impact on the Company's strategic initiatives; and the Company's ability to execute exploration programs, conduct geological assessments, and advance its assets towards potential resource development. Forward-looking information in this press release is based on various assumptions, including but not limited to: the Company's ability to successfully conduct exploration and development activities, access to funding and infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and favorable market conditions for critical minerals. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to: Challenges in obtaining permits, regulatory approvals, or financing; Geological or technical difficulties in mineral exploration and extraction; Changes in market demand or commodity prices; and Unforeseen environmental or operational risks. Readers are cautioned that the above list is not exhaustive. Forward-looking statements in this press release reflect the Company's expectations as of the date of this release and are subject to change. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements except as required by applicable law. Neither the Canadian Securities Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the Canadian Securities Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release. THIS NEWS RELEASE IS INTENDED FOR DISTRIBUTION IN CANADA ONLY AND IS NOT INTENDED FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES. To view the source version of this press release, please visit Sign in to access your portfolio
