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Forbes
13 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
Gold To Move Higher Into Year End:Here Are The Factors.
Gold is likely headed to $3800. Hold gold positions for the following reasons: August (up 61% of the time for a 0.84% gain) and September (up 54% of the time for a 1.25% gain) have been the 2 strongest months for the gold price The dynamic monthly cycle is rising. When this cycle is rising in these 2 months, add 10%-15% to the monthly bullish probabilities The next seasonal peak is in mid-October. For those readers who may be new to the cycles analysis approach, here are the guidelines. The most basic cycle is the annual seasonal cycle. For example, we all know that stocks tend to be strong in the spring and in Q4, weak in September, etc. The gold annual cycle is graphed below. 1-Gold Monthly Histogram (Expected Return) The June-September period has been the most bullish time interval for gold. Cycles Research Investments LLC The next cycle is dynamic. All cycles are calculated and the profitable cycles are accumulated and projected into the future. The best projections are those in which both sets of cycles point up or both point down. Currently, both point up. Here is a valuable feature of cyclical analysis. Gold had formed a triangle, and then broke down from this formation in late July. Application of basic technical analysis would have called this a serious breakdown and a sell signal. The rising monthly cycle was an indication that this break was false. Following the cycle and remaining long gold paid off. 2-Daily Gold Note the false break and the subsequent recovery. Cycles Research Investments LLC 3-Gold Monthly Cycle The monthly gold cycle rises through 2025. Cycles Research Investments LLC To set a new price projection, one measures the height of this triangle formation, about $400. Adding this to the point of breakout projects a $3800 price target. The August-September time period has been the most positive seasonal interval. Momentum is strong, so higher prices are likely to the 15th and beyond to $3800. Do keep in mind that gold (and oil) tend to be very weak in the second half of October. There are different ways to profit from the gold rally. There are two ETFs that are recommended. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) tracks the gold price. A 1% rise in the metal price will raise this ETF price by 1%. More aggressive investors may prefer ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL). This leveraged ETF moves at twice the gold price. In addition, there are many gold mining stocks. One of the best known and most liquid is Newmont Mining. Below, we see the three-up graph, the monthly price cycle projection, and the monthly price histogram. We see a new high in relative strength in the daily strip. There are higher lows in momentum both weekly and monthly. And, a three-year relative downtrend has been reversed to the upside. The monthly cycle rises through yearend. Chart 6 is the monthly histogram of the share price. Keep in mind that the month of October has been very weak. 4-Newmont-Daily, Weekly, Monthly This is a bullish picture. Cycles Research Investments LLC 5-Newmont Monthly Cycle This cycle also rises through 2025. Cycles Research Investments LLC 6-Newmont Monthly Histogram (Expected Return) August has been the strongest month for NEM and October has been the weakest. Cycles Research Investments LLC
Forbes
28-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
The health care sector is a mixed picture, but Abbott Labs is a buy.
Photographer: Jamie Kelter Davis/Bloomberg © 2024 Bloomberg Finance LP The health care sector has declined by 0.18% in 2025. This is better than the S&P 500's drop of 6.06%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) is graphed below. Looking within the sector is instructive. Market sentiment and breadth in the sector are at lows only seen during excessive selling. Short-term, the percentage of healthcare stocks exceeding their lower Bollinger Band suggests a near-term low. There is also insider buying, a positive signal that is not showing up in other sectors. The graphs tell us more. We see that relative strength has been rising since September. This is short of the six-month minimum that would be an indication of a sustained rally. Weekly, relative strength and seasonality are both favorable. The months of March through July each have positive expected return. Turning to the dynamic cycles, the monthly cycle rises into July. The stronger stocks within healthcare are likely to do well such as Abbott Laboratories. XLV Daily, Weekly, Monthly Weekly, relative strength is turning up. Cycles Research Investments LLC XLV Monthly Histogram XLV Monthly Cycle This cycle peaks in July. Cycles Research Investments LLC Weekly, Abbott has reversed a relative downtrend that began in January of 2023. The stock had been underperforming while the market rallied in 2024. The stock appears in a position to lead. In fact, Abbott is in thirteenth place in the relative standings in the S&P 100. Monthly, the stock is not overbought as many other large-cap shares are. The last two graphs are most constructive. The monthly histogram reveals strong seasonality and the dynamic monthly cycle is rising through 2025. The $140 level is the near-term target and the objective for yearend is $160. Abbott Labs Daily, Weekly, Monthly Abbott Monthly Histogram Abbott Labs Monthly Cycle This accurate cycle rises through 2025. Cycles Research Investments LLC
