Latest news with #DCF
Miami Herald
19 hours ago
- Miami Herald
Parents cage non-biological son, treat adoptive kids like ‘workers,' FL cops say
A couple in Florida is accused of abusing their non-biological children, caging a 14-year-old boy under a bunk bed and denying them food when there wasn't enough to go around, Florida authorities said. Two parents, ages 41 and 47, are facing aggravated child cruelty charges, along with their 19-year-old daughter and 21-year-old son, in connection with allegations of abuse against the family's four adoptive and foster kids, according to Columbia County jail records. McClatchy News is not identifying the family to protect the identity of their kids. The Florida Department of Children and Families was tipped off when one child brought a Taser to a church camp, according to a warrant affidavit filed July 22. A woman told DCF investigators that she believed the couple's non-biological children were being abused, reporting none of them had an education or knew basic information like their own last names, deputies said. She believed the non-biological children were treated like workers, 'not family members,' she told investigators. When DCF workers visited the home where the children lived, the parents initially refused to let them inside or speak to the kids before relenting and letting them into the living room, deputies said. There were nine children at the home, according to investigators, five of which were the biological children of the parents. 'Observations included biological children watching television or playing, while non-biological children were engaged in chores,' investigators wrote in the report. When investigators interviewed the kids ranging in age from 7 to 15, they said their 14-year-old brother was locked up in a makeshift cage under a bunk bed every night, and the family would seal him in by drilling a piece of plywood over the entrance, deputies said. He would bang on the plywood to be let out but sometimes would be forced to stay there overnight even when he had to use the bathroom, according to investigators. During his interview, he recounted his mother would sometimes press the plywood into his chest and back as a punishment, then he lifted his shirt and showed investigators his scars, the affidavit says. Two kids also told investigators their parents sprayed vinegar in their eyes as punishment, deputies said. One of the couple's former foster children told investigators the couple treated their non-biological kids differently, according to the affidavit. She said if there wasn't enough food, the non-biological kids wouldn't get any, deputies said. A 15-year-old girl also said the couple didn't let the foster and adoptive kids have cell phones like their biological kids, investigators said. The teen 'explained that she's asked for a phone but her mother said she has to learn to read before she can get a phone,' according to the affidavit. The teens appeared to be illiterate, according to deputies. Investigators said they found the parents and two of their adult children all participated in the pattern of abuse. Columbia County is in north Florida, bordering Georgia, and is a roughly 60-mile drive west from Jacksonville.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of GDI Integrated Facility Services Inc. (TSE:GDI)
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, GDI Integrated Facility Services fair value estimate is CA$34.26 GDI Integrated Facility Services' CA$31.86 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate The CA$44.13 analyst price target for GDI is 29% more than our estimate of fair value Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of GDI Integrated Facility Services Inc. (TSE:GDI) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. Crunching The Numbers We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Levered FCF (CA$, Millions) CA$54.7m CA$62.6m CA$51.5m CA$45.6m CA$42.2m CA$40.3m CA$39.4m CA$39.0m CA$39.1m CA$39.4m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ -17.66% Est @ -11.62% Est @ -7.38% Est @ -4.42% Est @ -2.35% Est @ -0.90% Est @ 0.12% Est @ 0.83% Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% CA$51.1 CA$54.8 CA$42.2 CA$34.9 CA$30.3 CA$27.1 CA$24.8 CA$23.0 CA$21.5 CA$20.3 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$330m The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.9%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$39m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (6.9%– 2.5%) = CA$926m Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CA$926m÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= CA$477m The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CA$807m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$31.9, the company appears about fair value at a 7.0% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. Important Assumptions The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at GDI Integrated Facility Services as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.007. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for GDI Integrated Facility Services SWOT Analysis for GDI Integrated Facility Services Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Debt is well covered by cash flow. Weakness Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Current share price is below our estimate of fair value. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market. Looking Ahead: Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For GDI Integrated Facility Services, there are three important elements you should consider: Risks: Take risks, for example - GDI Integrated Facility Services has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about. Future Earnings: How does GDI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Is Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) Trading At A 50% Discount?
Key Insights Amgen's estimated fair value is US$609 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Amgen is estimated to be 50% undervalued based on current share price of US$307 The US$313 analyst price target for AMGN is 49% less than our estimate of fair value How far off is Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex. Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. Step By Step Through The Calculation We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$14.6b US$13.9b US$13.8b US$14.5b US$14.6b US$14.7b US$15.0b US$15.3b US$15.7b US$16.1b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Est @ 0.67% Est @ 1.35% Est @ 1.83% Est @ 2.16% Est @ 2.39% Est @ 2.56% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8% US$13.7k US$12.2k US$11.4k US$11.1k US$10.5k US$9.9k US$9.5k US$9.1k US$8.7k US$8.3k ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$104b The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.8%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$16b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (6.8%– 2.9%) = US$430b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$430b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)10= US$223b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$327b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$307, the company appears quite undervalued at a 50% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. Important Assumptions The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Amgen as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.890. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for Amgen SWOT Analysis for Amgen Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Biotechs market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market. Next Steps: Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Amgen, there are three fundamental elements you should explore: Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Amgen that you should be aware of. Future Earnings: How does AMGN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Time of India
3 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Forest clearance delay stalls Belagavi Ring Road project
Belagavi: The ambitious Belagavi Ring Road project, aimed at decongesting city traffic, has hit a major roadblock due to the delay in securing forest clearance. The project remains stalled as state forest officials failed to respond to queries raised by the Union ministry of environment, forest and climate change. The Centre approved the project in three phases, allocating Rs 1,622 crore for the construction of a 34.5-kilometre ring road in the first phase. Union minister for road transport and highways Nitin Gadkari laid the foundation stone in Feb 2024, calling it a key infrastructure upgrade for Belagavi. The proposed road cuts through 27.3 hectares of reserve forest in the villages of Honaga, Kakati, Sonatti, Kanabargi, and Kalakhamb. Belagavi deputy conservator of forests (DCF) Maria Christu Raja D submitted his inspection report in Aug 2024, and based on his report, the state forest department recommended the diversion of forest land to the Centre in Jan 2025. However, questions have now been raised over the accuracy and completeness of the report submitted by the DCF. Bengaluru-based environmental activist Ramprasad flagged potential discrepancies, citing satellite images that allegedly show encroachment on portions of the forest land recommended for diversion, which were not mentioned in the DCF's report. Following the activist's complaint, the central forest department asked the state govt to submit a factual report by June 10, a deadline that has since lapsed without compliance. The failure to provide a factual report is now the primary reason for the delay in greenlighting the Ring Road Project. DCF Maria Christu Raja D declined to comment on the matter. Meanwhile, Belagavi South MLA Abhay Patil, a strong advocate for the project, expressed his frustration over the delay. "We worked hard to get this major project sanctioned by the Centre, but the inefficiency of local forest officials is stalling it. If the DCF fails to submit the required factual report within 15 days, I will protest in front of his office," he warned.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau AG (MUN:JTH)
Key Insights Using the Dividend Discount Model, Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau fair value estimate is €15.59 With €12.50 share price, Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau's peers seem to be trading at a higher discount to fair value based onthe industry average of 57% How far off is Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau AG (MUN:JTH) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. Crunching The Numbers As Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau operates in the healthcare sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.3%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 4.7%. Compared to the current share price of €12.5, the company appears about fair value at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate) = €0.5 / (4.7% – 1.3%) = €15.6 Important Assumptions Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau SWOT Analysis for Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau Strength Debt is well covered by earnings. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Healthcare market. Opportunity Current share price is below our estimate of fair value. Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine JTH's earnings prospects. Threat Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Looking Ahead: Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau, we've put together three pertinent items you should assess: Risks: Take risks, for example - Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau has 4 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the MUN every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
