Latest news with #DSubbarao
NDTV
2 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
"Make In India Need Not Become Make All That India Needs": RBI Ex-Governor
New Delhi: Sounding a note of caution, former RBI Governor D Subbarao on Monday said that 'Make in India' should not transform into 'Make all that India needs' as it would hurt investments in the country and impact productivity. Subbarao further said the punitive 50 per cent tariffs on Indian exports imposed by the US will raise the costs of Indian goods in the most important overseas market, which is America. "If 'Make in India' degenerates into 'Make all that India needs', we risk losing the chance to attract investment away from China. "The tariffs remind us that openness, not isolation, is the path to sustainable growth," he told PTI in an interview. Subbarao said the success of 'Make in India' hinges on competitiveness, not protectionism. "Atmanirbhar Bharat, an aspiration that the Prime Minister reiterated in his Independence Day speech, must mean strategic self-reliance in sensitive areas like defence and energy, not blanket self-sufficiency," he said. According to him, 'Make in India' was conceived as positioning the country as an export-driven manufacturing hub-making in India, not just for India, but for the world. "Punitive US tariffs cut directly into this ambition by raising the cost of Indian goods in our most important overseas market," Subbarao said, adding that investors considering India as an alternative to China in their China+1 diversification strategy will hesitate to lock into an India that is saddled with the highest tariffs in Asia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his Independence Day address, had said that for a nation, the biggest basis for self-respect ('atmasamman') is still 'atmanirbharta' (self-reliance). "And, the basis for 'Viksit Bharat' is also 'Atmanirbhar Bharat'". Responding to a question on impact on the impact of 50 per cent tariffs on India's exports and competitiveness, Subbarao said America is India's single largest export market, accounting for nearly 20 per cent of our total exports and over 2 per cent of GDP. "A 50 per cent tariff - even after exempting pharma and electronics - would hit at least half of our exports, especially in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems & jewellery, and leather," he said. Subbarao also pointed out that the current exemptions on pharma and electronics are not permanent; ongoing reviews could bring them under tariff in the future "More worrying is that India now faces the highest tariff in Asia, far above Bangladesh (20 per cent), Vietnam (20 per cent), and Indonesia (19 per cent). This undermines our China+1 aspiration at a critical moment," he said. The former RBI Governor noted that the joint pledge by Modi and Trump at their February meeting to more than triple bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030 now looks unrealistic. "While assessing the potential impact on our exports, we must also reckon with the possibility of China dumping in world markets to offset the loss of its US market. "To the extent these are markets where we compete, our exports to destinations outside of the US will also be hit," he said. Asked if it is at all possible for India to yield a little in giving access to the US in the agriculture and dairy sector, Subbarao said agriculture and dairy are politically sensitive sectors in India, providing livelihoods to millions, and tied closely to the country's food security. "A blanket opening to US imports is neither feasible nor desirable. "However, some calibrated flexibility could help unlock the impasse in negotiations," he said. According to him, this might mean limited tariff-rate quotas, selective product lines, and sanitary and phytosanitary alignment in exchange for significant gains in US market access for India's exports. Noting that any such opening should be phased, targetted, and paired with a strong backstop for farmers - investment in cold chains, productivity upgrades, and rural support programs, Subbarao said," India must protect its red lines but should not reject pragmatic compromises that deliver broader trade benefits." Asked if it is possible to pare down Russian oil imports, he said if India were to suddenly pivot from Russia to the Gulf, global oil prices would spike because neither US shale nor OPEC can ramp up supply quickly. "The effect would be to raise the global crude price, hurting India's current account, weakening the rupee, and fuelling inflation pressures," Subbarao said, adding that, in short, moving away is not a simple solution. He observed that the pragmatic course is gradual diversification - adding Middle Eastern and African barrels over time - while retaining flexibility to protect national energy security. "Currently, we import about 1.7 million barrels a day of Russian oil. There is an argument that since the Russian discount has fallen to USD 5 per barrel, the cost of switching away is less than 0.1 per cent of GDP," he added. On the impasse on India-US trade talks and what should be India's negotiating strategy going forward, Subbarao said a balanced agreement is possible if both sides focus on comparative advantages rather than deficits. "Our strategy should be pragmatic: resist emotional reactions, identify win-win sectors, and push for preferential access in labour-intensive industries, while offering selective concessions where feasible," he said. For India, America is the largest partner and one of the few countries with which it enjoys a trade surplus.
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Business Standard
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Make in India must not become make all India needs: Former RBI Guv Subbarao
Sounding a note of caution, former RBI Governor D Subbarao on Monday said that 'Make in India' should not transform into 'Make all that India needs' as it would hurt investments in the country and impact productivity. Subbarao further said the punitive 50 per cent tariffs on Indian exports imposed by the US will raise the costs of Indian goods in the most important overseas market, which is America. "If 'Make in India' degenerates into 'Make all that India needs', we risk losing the chance to attract investment away from China. "The tariffs remind us that openness, not isolation, is the path to sustainable growth," he told PTI in an interview. Subbarao said the success of 'Make in India' hinges on competitiveness, not protectionism. "Atmanirbhar Bharat, an aspiration that the Prime Minister reiterated in his Independence Day speech, must mean strategic self-reliance in sensitive areas like defence and energy, not blanket self-sufficiency," he said. According to him, 'Make in India' was conceived as positioning the country as an export-driven manufacturing hub-making in India, not just for India, but for the world. "Punitive US tariffs cut directly into this ambition by raising the cost of Indian goods in our most important overseas market," Subbarao said, adding that investors considering India as an alternative to China in their China+1 diversification strategy will hesitate to lock into an India that is saddled with the highest tariffs in Asia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his Independence Day address, had said that for a nation, the biggest basis for self-respect ('atmasamman') is still 'atmanirbharta' (self-reliance). "And, the basis for 'Viksit Bharat' is also 'Atmanirbhar Bharat'". Responding to a question on impact on the impact of 50 per cent tariffs on India's exports and competitiveness, Subbarao said America is India's single largest export market, accounting for nearly 20 per cent of our total exports and over 2 per cent of GDP. "A 50 per cent tariff - even after exempting pharma and electronics - would hit at least half of our exports, especially in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems & jewellery, and leather," he said. Subbarao also pointed out that the current exemptions on pharma and electronics are not permanent; ongoing reviews could bring them under tariff in the future "More worrying is that India now faces the highest tariff in Asia, far above Bangladesh (20 per cent), Vietnam (20 per cent), and Indonesia (19 per cent). This undermines our China+1 aspiration at a critical moment," he said. The former RBI Governor noted that the joint pledge by Modi and Trump at their February meeting to more than triple bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030 now looks clearly unrealistic. "While assessing the potential impact on our exports, we must also reckon with the possibility of China dumping in world markets to offset the loss of its US market. "To the extent these are markets where we compete, our exports to destinations outside of the US will also be hit," he said. Asked if it is at all possible for India to yield a little in giving access to the US in the agriculture and dairy sector, Subbarao said agriculture and dairy are politically sensitive sectors in India, providing livelihoods to millions, and tied closely to the country's food security. "A blanket opening to US imports is neither feasible nor desirable. "However, some calibrated flexibility could help unlock the impasse in negotiations," he said. According to him, this might mean limited tariff-rate quotas, selective product lines, and sanitary and phytosanitary alignment in exchange for significant gains in US market access for India's exports. Noting that any such opening should be phased, targetted, and paired with a strong backstop for farmers - investment in cold chains, productivity upgrades, and rural support programs, Subbarao said," India must protect its red lines but should not reject pragmatic compromises that deliver broader trade benefits." Asked if it is possible to pare down Russian oil imports, he said if India were to suddenly pivot from Russia to the Gulf, global oil prices would spike because neither US shale nor OPEC can ramp up supply quickly. "The effect would be to raise the global crude price, hurting India's current account, weakening the rupee, and fuelling inflation pressures," Subbarao said, adding that, in short, moving away is not a simple solution. He observed that the pragmatic course is gradual diversification - adding Middle Eastern and African barrels over time - while retaining flexibility to protect national energy security. Currently, we import about 1.7 million barrels a day of Russian oil. There is an argument that since the Russian discount has fallen to USD 5 per barrel, the cost of switching away is less than 0.1 per cent of GDP, he added. On the impasse on India-US trade talks and what should be India's negotiating strategy going forward, Subbarao said a balanced agreement is possible if both sides focus on comparative advantages rather than deficits. "Our strategy should be pragmatic: resist emotional reactions, identify win-win sectors, and push for preferential access in labour-intensive industries, while offering selective concessions where feasible," he said. For India, America is the largest partner and one of the few countries with which it enjoys a trade surplus.
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Former RBI Guv D Subbarao warns of a Make in India trap, outlines the road Indian manufacturing should not take
Live Events D Subbarao, former RBI Guv (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Noted economist D Subbarao issued a stark warning regarding the ' Make in India ' initiative, cautioning that if the focus shifts to producing solely for domestic needs, it could stifle foreign investment and hinder overall essence, the former Reserve Bank of India Governor pointed to a trap that he said the Make in India drive could fall into, and marked out the trajectory that Indian manufacturing can only take at its own comments come on the heels of punitive tariffs imposed by the United States on Indian exports, which he believes could significantly affect India's economic aspirations, news agency PTI reported on August 50 per cent tariffs levied by the US on certain Indian goods are particularly concerning, as they heighten costs for Indian exporters in a key market. Subbarao highlighted that India's goal of becoming an export-driven manufacturing hub could be jeopardised if 'Make in India' devolves into could lead to missed opportunities in attracting investment from companies seeking alternatives to China, he his remarks, Subbarao reinforced that 'Atmanirbhar Bharat'—the push for self-reliance—should focus on strategic self-sufficiency in sensitive sectors like defence and energy, rather than blanket self-sufficiency across the board. He believes the initiative is about manufacturing for global markets, not merely to satisfy local former RBI chief pointed out that the United States accounts for nearly 20 per cent of India's total exports, making it the largest export market for the country. He noted that the newly imposed tariffs could adversely affect significant sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, and leather, which are heavily reliant on certain sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics are currently exempt from these tariffs, this exemption may not be permanent and could be reviewed in the pointed out that India's tariffs are now the highest in Asia, far exceeding those of competitors like Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Indonesia. This situation is worrying and could complicate India's efforts to position itself as an alternative to China in global supply chains, he ambitious target set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former US President Donald Trump to triple bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030 now seems increasingly out of reach. Subbarao suggested that India must also prepare for potential competition from China, which may attempt to offset its losses in the US market by flooding other the topic of trade negotiations, particularly in agriculture and dairy -- areas sensitive due to their impact on livelihoods and food security -- Subbarao indicated that while complete openness to US imports is impractical, a measured approach could facilitate suggested that limited tariff-rate quotas and selective product lines could be explored in exchange for enhanced access to the US India's energy strategy, Subbarao warned against abruptly reducing imports of Russian oil. He explained that such a move could lead to a spike in global oil prices, negatively impacting India's economy. Instead, he advocated for a gradual diversification of oil sources while ensuring energy security is the ongoing impasse in India-US trade talks, Subbarao emphasised the importance of a balanced agreement. He urged both nations to focus on their comparative advantages, advocating for a pragmatic negotiating strategy that identifies mutually beneficial sectors.
Indian Express
07-08-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
India can weather even a 50 bps growth sacrifice but for a year: Former RBI governor D Subbarao
Indian Economy, US Tariff on India: The hike in US tariffs on Indian imports to 50 per cent is likely to have significant medium to long term implications for India, said D Subbarao, veteran economist, author and former governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Presently, exports account for about 22 per cent of India's GDP, with the US contributing approximately 17 per cent to that export share. Subbarao feels that India may be able to weather even a 50 basis points sacrifice in growth for a year because it is still a fast-growing economy. A hit of 40 to 50 basis points means a GDP growth that is down from 6.5 per cent to 6.1 per cent or even 6 per cent. However, in the medium to longer term, which is beyond a year, India cannot afford to sacrifice this 50 basis points on a year-on-year basis. This is all the more crucial for India, being a growing economy that has aspirations for a seat at the high table of rich nations be a $ 30 trillion economy. To get there, growth in the early years has to be high as high growth on a larger base in later years will be difficult. 'A 50 bps loss each year, will, in the long run upset the country's long-term objective to emerge as a Viksit Bharat or a developed economy by 2047,' he says. 'People are talking about the need to diversify our exports to other geographies, explore newer sources of exports, improve the infrastructure in the country to attract more tourists for instance, enter into free trade agreements with other countries and trading blocks,' says Dr Subbarao. 'All of these,' he says, 'we must pursue irrespective of what happens in the trade with the US.' Some of these could include concluding FTAs with EU, East Asian nations or joining the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership). The CPTPP is a free trade agreement between a dozen countries – Australia, Brunei, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam apart from the United Kingdom. Impact at the disaggregated level But on the implications of the latest news on the levies announced by the US (while we are still unaware of what the final negotiations will yield) what Dr Subbarao also finds significant is that the current numbers, apart from the impact at an aggregate level on the growth rate of the economy, also entail an adverse impact at a disaggregated level and especially on the low income segments of the population. 'This is because the hit will be in labour-intensive sectors like machinery and gems and jewellery that form major part of the exports to the US. Add to this, if India were to pivot from Russia to Saudi Arabia, for sourcing its petroleum needs, the aggregate cost of oil will increase for India and this will impact the inflation rate and the entire economy with higher impact on low-income households,' he says. Also, Dr Subbarao reminds, 'higher oil prices globally will reflect in lowering of demand and thereby lower the global growth rates, which in turn, could have adverse implications for India. Interrogate the internet or tap the easily accessible AI assistants and various numbers are being discussed. For example, there are estimates that suggest the negative impact on the exports to the US resulting in a decline in exports by as much as 40 per cent. A back of the envelope calculation of the net impact on the GDP taking into consideration also the export value to the US, the GVA (gross value added) of exports, will throw up a number of around US $ 20 billion for a full year but if, as several economists and industry leaders expect, nearly half of that could be offset by the other alternatives that the country could explore, the net direct impact would at most be 0.4 per cent of GDP (which today is at nearly $ 4 trillion). Hence, the argument doing the rounds is that India would be in a position to weather the impact. But the point Dr Subbarao is making is that this may not be sustainable in the medium to longer term and this is crucial given India's long term high growth, developed economy, aspirations. (
Time of India
30-05-2025
- General
- Time of India
UPSC makes important changes to application process for all exams: Check the new four-part structure and new website
The Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) has launched a new online portal for registration and application submission for all future examinations. According to the official notice, the new UPSC Online Application Portal is structured in four parts, each shown as a separate card on the homepage. UPSC Four-part structure for easier access As per the UPSC notification, 'The UPSC Online Application Portal has four parts, arranged in 4 separate cards at the home page, three of which namely, Account Creation, Universal Registration and Common Application Form contains information which are common to all examinations and can be filled anytime by the candidates. The fourth part i.e. Examination contains examination notices, Examination Application and applications status. Only examination specific information is to be filled up in this part by candidates during the time period allowed in the notification of an examination.' Move to save time and avoid last-minute rush The commission stated that this new system is designed to allow candidates to complete the first three sections in advance and keep their profiles ready. This is expected to save time and prevent congestion near the closing dates of application windows. Previous OTR module discontinued UPSC has asked all applicants to freshly register and upload necessary documents on the new portal at The older One Time Registration (OTR) module will no longer be valid. Aadhaar card based ID verification For identity verification, candidates have been 'strongly advised to use their Aadhar Card as ID document in the Universal Application for easy, effortless and seamless verification and authentication of ID and other details.' According to the commission, this will act as a standard and permanent record for all UPSC examinations. Live Events You Might Also Like: 'Abysmal waste': Former RBI Governor D Subbarao explains why UPSC urgently needs a reform New portal to be used for upcoming exams UPSC has confirmed that applications for the CDS II and NDA & NA II exams for 2025 will be accepted only through the new online portal. For more details and updates, candidates should visit the official UPSC website. Former RBI Governor calls for UPSC exam reforms Duvvuri Subbarao, former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has proposed significant changes to the recruitment system for India's civil services. Writing in The Times of India , he recommended reducing both the upper age limit and the number of attempts for the UPSC Civil Services Examination. He also suggested the introduction of a structured, annual mid-career entry route into the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) for professionals in their early 40s. Concerns over lost productive years and exam pressure Commenting on the 2024 civil service results, Subbarao congratulated successful candidates but raised concerns about the long-term impact on those who do not qualify after repeated attempts. 'For every successful candidate, there are at least ten others who too have invested years in preparation but have failed to make the grade. They are back at square one. An abysmal waste of productive years?' he wrote. He criticised the current policy of allowing six attempts up to age 32, saying it encourages aspirants to keep preparing due to the 'sunk cost fallacy.' Advocates mid-career IAS entry route and streamlined youth recruitment Subbarao called for limiting the number of attempts to three and reducing the upper age limit to 27. He also proposed a permanent, annual IAS entry channel for mid-career professionals aged 40–42. 'They can pursue other careers and take another shot at the exam mid-career,' he noted. While supporting continued recruitment of young candidates, he emphasised that the system should be modernised. 'The civil service exam has vastly improved from the time I took it over 50 years ago. But there is still a need to push the envelope.'
