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NBC News
2 days ago
- Business
- NBC News
Tariffs and deportations are contributing to rising prices and fewer immigrant workers
After projections that President Donald Trump's mass deportations would negatively impact the American economy, the nation is seeing a jump in wholesale vegetable prices and slowdowns in industries that rely on immigrant workers. Economic measures that are trickling out are leading some to point to the administration's immigration crackdown, along with tariffs, as at least partly responsible for the slump in some economic sectors and for rising prices. The latest comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported Thursday a whopping 38.9% increase in wholesale dry and fresh vegetable prices from June to July, the biggest since March 2022. Phil Kafarakis, president of IMFA The Food Away From Home Association, which represents food producers, suppliers, services and industries outside of grocery stores, said the warning signs should be taken seriously. Because of deportation efforts, 'you are now going to be left with not enough laborers in the fields to pick up and collect product as its coming to harvest,' he said, adding that it is contributing to the current 'horribly, incredibly impactful' effect of tariffs. Combined with drought, excessive flooding and wildfires, the deportations are coming to bear and will become a bigger problem in the late summer and early fall harvests, he said. 'I don't think people realize' there will be a surge in vegetable costs in restaurants, at grocery stores and other places, Kafarakis said. While the administration has not yet hit the deportation levels Trump promised in his campaign, the number of people arrested by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in June was its highest monthly arrests in at least five years. This week, the Dallas Federal Reserve issued a report stating Texas' economy has softened amid uncertainty. Business owners told the Dallas Federal Reserve that uncertainty about tariffs and immigration policy were posing investment and hiring challenges. 'Immigration enforcement actions are also affecting the ability of some firms to recruit and retain workers,' the agency stated in its report. The federal bank surveys Texas businesses regularly. In its July survey, the inability to hire qualified workers because they lacked permits or legal status 'was the most widespread impact noted among firms experiencing workforce disruption," the reserve bank said. The report quoted a machine manufacturer who said in response to survey questions, 'Foreign-born laborers get the job done. We need them, we use them, and we like them.' Immigrant workers are a big part of Texas' workforce. In an April report, the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank said the share of Texas firms reporting on its survey that they rely on workers who moved to Texas from a different country increased from 15% in 2023 to 25% in 2024. "The increase has been across all sectors, with about one-third of manufacturing respondents relying on immigrant workers," the bank stated then. In a report released Thursday by the immigrant advocacy group America's Voice, the authors noted that the cycling of immigrant workers in and out of the country has stopped, mostly because of border restrictions reducing the inflow of immigrants. 'The country is losing workers without them being replaced, with adverse economic consequences,' the report by Robert Lynch, Michael Ettlinger and Emma Sifre states. Lynch is an economics professor at Washington College. Ettlinger is a founding director of University of New Hampshire Carsey School of Public Policy, and Sifre is a data analyst with the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Lynch said that the number of workers in agriculture and related industries increased from March to July in 2023 and in 2024. But employment in the industries those same months this year dropped by 155,000 workers, down 6.5%. In construction, the 10 states with the highest concentrations of unauthorized workers saw employment drop .1% from June 2024 to June 2025, while other states saw it increase 1.9%, according to the report. Additionally, the growth in the states not in the top 10 was lower than a year ago, down from 2.3% growth. About 7% of the leisure and hospitality workers are undocumented and are mostly focused in restaurant and hotel sectors, Lynch said. States with higher concentrations of unauthorized workers are experiencing slower growth in this area, he said. Food service employment grew .2% in high immigrant states over the past year compared to 1.5% in other states, the report states. 'A loss of a significant portion of this workforce is likely to be particularly damaging as there were nearly 1 million unfilled jobs in leisure and hospitality in as recently as April of this year,' Lynch said. The numbers of foreign-born workers in the country fell from 33.3 million in January to about 32.1 million in July, a loss of about 1.2 million workers, according to analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers by the National Foundation for American Policy, a trade and immigration research group. Stuart Anderson, the foundation's executive director, said thus far there has not been a corresponding increase in U.S. workers' labor participation. 'The reason why you see slowdowns is because when employers can't find enough workers, they are going to invest less,' he said. Antonio De Loera-Burst, United Farm Workers spokesman, questioned whether there are truly labor shortages in agriculture. He said workers are frightened and acknowledged raids have occurred in some fields and agricultural related worksites. But 'a lot of workers I talk to are desperate for work. There's not enough work,' De Loera-Burst said. Hours are being cut and workers are being told to do in six hours what they used to do in eight, he said. 'We are dead set against deportations,' he said, referring to UFW. He said that what appears to be happening is that growers are using the disruptions of immigration raids on their businesses 'as their latest argument for why Congress should give them their long-standing priority, which is to bring more guest workers and pay them less.' Trump has been under pressure from businesses that rely on immigrant workers, particularly the agricultural industry, to ensure they have a secure and reliable workforce.
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs creating uncertainty in Texas as report shows slower revenue growth since late 2024
Texas local businesses reported slower revenue growth since late last year, sparking uncertainty over President Donald Trump's policies on tariffs and concerns of a possible recession, according to a report released by the Dallas Federal Reserve on Thursday. As the nation's leading trade state, Texas has been significantly impacted by the higher tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China imposed earlier this year by Trump's administration. 'The uncertainty index for both manufacturers and service sector companies jumped in March to levels not seen since late 2022, during the height of the pandemic,' the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) report stated. Nearly half of Texas businesses surveyed expressed concerns that rising costs could reduce consumer demand and push the state into a recession. Among those hit hardest are manufacturers, many of whom reported difficulties maintaining production levels. The Texas service-sector was also affected: its revenue growth has been declining since late 2024, reaching zero by March, according to TBOS respondents. The Trade Partnership Worldwide, an international research firm, estimates that the tariffs could cost Texas businesses $47 billion and cut the state's gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 1.5 percentage points. Researchers predict that this decline in economic growth could lead to the loss of approximately 100,000 jobs. Tony Payan, the executive director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, said that tariffs are 'going to hit Texans very hard.' 'We have to remember that 40% to 50%, depending on the season, of our agricultural produce comes from Mexico,' said Payan. 'Tariffs on cucumbers or strawberries or avocados, other Mexican fruits and vegetables, they have no easy and quickly available import substitution opportunity. So inflation is going to be very hard to control.' Payan added that 'the Texas government and congressional delegation should have been a lot more assertive in pushing back against the White House and President Trump.' 'They're too quiet, and there is too much economic activity at stake being put at risk, and there are too many Texans who are going to be affected by losing their job or by losing their export markets and inflation,' said Payan. With $850 billion in trade in 2024, Texas relies heavily on international commerce, the Dallas Federal Reserve reports. Mexico is the state's largest trading partner, accounting for $281 billion in trade last year. The increased cost of imports is expected to have significant ripple effects, particularly for industries along the Texas-Mexico border. In April, President Trump announced a new 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports, along with additional duties on specific countries, which has sparked debate among Texas politicians. U.S. Rep. Roger Williams, R-TX, defended the tariffs, arguing that they will benefit American industries. 'For too long, America's past policies have put the U.S. auto industry at a disadvantage,' Williams wrote on X on Wednesday. He added that the tariffs would 'increase competition, boost revenue, and bring back American jobs.' Not all Texas leaders agree with Williams. San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg, speaking at a trade summit in Washington, D.C., alongside mayors from Canada and Mexico, voiced opposition to the administration's trade policies. 'We're here to speak out against Trump's unprovoked trade wars and tariffs that he is threatening to pursue,' Nirenberg said in a video posted on his X account on March 28. He stressed that the tariffs put hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk. 'One in five jobs in Texas depends on international trade, and within the automotive sector alone, 300,000 jobs are on the line.' Disclosure: Rice University and Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here. Tickets are on sale now for the 15th annual Texas Tribune Festival, Texas' breakout ideas and politics event happening Nov. 13–15 in downtown Austin. Get tickets before May 1 and save big! TribFest 2025 is presented by JPMorganChase.
