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Yahoo
a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane Erin remains Category 3 as track shifts south; new system on Erin's tail
Hurricane Erin, after strengthening into a Category 5 storm early Saturday, weakened to Category 3 by Sunday morning and has taken a track slightly more south than originally forecast, the National Hurricane Center said. Meanwhile forecasters are tracking another possible system close on Erin's heels that could develop near the Caribbean this week. Despite recent wobbling, Hurricane Erin is still on a track to turn away from the U.S. East Coast over the next few days. As of 11 a.m. Sunday, Erin was about 200 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. It was moving west-northwest at 14 mph. Erin's forecast track will take it to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, and it will be several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina by late in the week. Beachgoers along the U.S. coast from South Florida to Virginia are being warned of life-threatening rip currents this week as Erin passes to the east. 'While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week,' the hurricane center said. NOAA Hurricane Hunters found maximum sustained winds had increased to nearly 160 mph during a pass through the storm just after 11 a.m. Saturday morning, making it a Category 5 hurricane. The storm joins last year's Hurricane Milton as one of the fastest-intensifying Atlantic hurricanes. Like Erin, Milton also went from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm in around 24 hours before making landfall as a Category 3 in Siesta Key in October. Erin's arrival earlier in the season makes it unique by comparison. The steep drop in the storm's central pressure over the last 24 hours makes it the 'fastest deepening Atlantic hurricane' before September, beating Hurricane Emily's 2005 record, according to Sam Lillo, a meteorologist and software engineer for DTN Weather. Most of Erin's intensification occurred during a 12- to 15-hour window overnight, according to Dan Pydynowski, a meteorologist at AccuWeather. By 5 p.m. Friday, Erin's winds had remained only 75 mph. The hurricane 'had all of the ingredients' necessary to rapidly intensify, Pydynowski said. Erin has continued moving west into increasingly warm waters and it faces little to no wind shear, which tears apart storms. The dry air that hindered it earlier this week has moved away, and it's far enough northeast of the Caribbean islands that there are no land masses interfering with its circulation. Several islands along the northeast border of the Caribbean Sea remained under tropical storm watches. Erin is expected to bring heavy rain up to 6 inches through Monday across Puerto Rico, and in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday, the hurricane center said. Elsewhere in the tropics Hours after forecasters began tracking a new system in the western Atlantic Saturday, a westerly moving tropical wave arose off Africa. Regarding the latter disturbance, the National Hurricane Center said, 'An area of low pressure could form over the central tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of next week from a westward moving tropical wave. Some subsequent development could occur as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.' It has a 20% chance of development over the next seven days. Finally, an area of showers and thunderstorms off the coast of North Carolina could develop some over the next 24 hours, but conditions are expected to hinder any further development by Monday. As of 8 a.m., Sunday it had a 10% chance of developing in the next two to seven days. _____
Mint
2 days ago
- Climate
- Mint
Hurricane Erin Weakens While Drenching Puerto Rico, Islands
(Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Erin's winds dropped on Sunday as it wobbled westward, bringing heavy rain across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico before turning north and probably restrengthening in the coming days. The storm, the first hurricane of the 2025 season, is expected to pass between North Carolina's Outer Banks and Bermuda later this week. About 170 miles (275 kilometers) north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, Erin's top winds are blowing at 125 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, the US National Hurricane Center said in an update at 8 a.m. EDT. Erin's winds increased rapidly on Saturday to reach 160 mph, making it a scale-topping Category 5 storm and one of the earliest examples of such a powerful system to emerge in the Atlantic. In July 2024, Hurricane Beryl became earliest storm to reach top intensity during the six-month Atlantic season. In addition to its wind speeds, which are forecast to increase again, reaching 145 mph in the next day, Erin will swell in size. 'The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic,' Senior Hurricane Specialist John Cangialosi wrote in the center's forecast. 'Given its track adjustments and increasing size, the government of the Bahamas has issued a tropical storm warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and a tropical storm watch for southeast Bahamas.' While Erin barely grazed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, it still knocked out power to many residents. About 10% of Puerto Rico was without electricity overnight, Luma Energy reported, and crews on the US Virgin Islands were working to restore energy on Sunday. If Erin holds to its forecast track, it will avoid a direct strike on any of the islands in the area or the US East Coast. It's expected to trace a shallow, c-shape arc through the western Atlantic, passing between North Carolina and Bermuda overnight Wednesday into Thursday. In addition to Erin, another tropical wave that bears watching is moving off Africa into the Atlantic, said Dan Pydynowski, a meteorologist with commercial-forecaster AccuWeather Inc. The patch of thunderstorms and showers is currently near Cabo Verde off Africa's coast and moving west across the Atlantic, with a 20% chance of becoming a storm in the next week. That part of the ocean, between the Caribbean and Africa, is known as the main development region to forecasters and it's where some of history's most deadly and damaging storms have formed. It's also a part of the ocean that becomes particularly active between mid-August and late September. 'It's that time of year, the later part of August,' Pydynowski said. 'We will have to watch that. We are quickly approaching the peak of hurricane season.' --With assistance from Alex Newman. More stories like this are available on
The Herald Scotland
2 days ago
- Climate
- The Herald Scotland
Hurricane Erin may bring dangerous surf from Florida to New England
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told USA TODAY dangerous surf conditions could reach as far as New England beaches, even as the hurricane is expected to avoid making landfall. Graphics: How rip currents endanger swimmers Safety: Rip currents kill dozens every year. What to do if you get caught in one The late-summer weather might seem ideal for a beach trip, but these conditions are when rip current fatalities tend to occur, said National Hurricane Center Director Mike Brennan. Rip currents might not be visible from shore, and they can appear suddenly. Beachgoers should swim near lifeguards and pay attention to warnings. Rip currents are fast-moving channels of water that flow away from shore. In doing so, the currents drag swimmers out into open waters. People can then become exhausted and drown. The narrow, strong currents flow quickly, faster at times than an Olympic swimmer, and perpendicular to the coastline. Rip currents cause the majority of deaths among beach swimmers each year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Of 52 identified surf zone deaths in 2025 to date, nearly half were caused by rip currents. Since 2010, over 800 people have died in rip current drownings. What to do if you get caught in a rip current If you get caught in a rip current, the best thing to do is remain calm. Currents won't pull you underwater, but away from shore. So people shouldn't swim against the current, which puts them at risk of tiring out. Instead, people should swim parallel to shore and then swim back at an angle when you're free of the rip current. What if others are caught in a rip current? Plenty of people drown trying to save others caught in a rip current. If someone is struggling, NOAA's Rip Current Survival Guide recommends you try to get help from a lifeguard. You can also throw a floatable device to the person who needs it while you get a lifeguard. But amid a nationwide shortage of lifeguards, if there isn't a lifeguard present, call 911. Try to direct the person to swim parallel to shore to get out of the rip current.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane Erin strengthens to a fierce Category 5 storm in the Atlantic
Hurricane Erin on Saturday strengthened into a fearsome Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph as the storm traveled west over the Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane is not expected to make a direct hit on the United States, but it will still drive dangerous surf conditions along the East Coast. "We still expect this to eventually make a more northward turn and stay offshore of the East Coast of the United States. So that certainly is good news when dealing with a storm this powerful," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told USA TODAY. Under the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Category 5 hurricanes are the strongest possible, with minimum winds of 157 mph. On the afternoon of Aug. 16, Erin was passing to the north of the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean and was just over 200 miles from San Juan, Puerto Rico. Erin is only the fifth Category 5 hurricane on record to form this early in the hurricane season and the only Category 5 observed outside the Gulf or Caribbean this early in the year, according to WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October. The first hurricane of the Atlantic season on average forms on about Aug. 11. Where is Hurricane Erin? Storm path tracker As of 2 p.m. on Aug. 16, Erin was located about 110 miles north of Anguilla, one of the most northward of the Leeward Islands, and 205 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico. It was moving west at about 16 mph with wind speeds of 160 mph. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Erin strengthened rapidly and is expected to grow Erin formed as a hurricane on Aug. 15. It was the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, and quickly became the first major hurricane as well. A major hurricane is one that reaches at least Category 3 status. "(B)y the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic," the hurricane center said. Erin's hurricane force winds had a mean diameter of 43 miles on Aug. 16 but are expected to increase to 132 miles in diameter by Aug. 19, while its tropical storm force winds are forecast to reach a mean diameter of 385 miles over the same time period. The storm's outer bands of rain were already beginning to impact the northern Leeward Islands, forecasters said on Aug. 16. Heavy rainfall is expected in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for the rest of the weekend, bringing 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized amounts of 6 inches and possible flash flooding. What impacts will Hurricane Erin have on the US? Erin is expected to make a turn to the north and avoid making landfall altogether. It will pass somewhere between North Carolina's Outer Banks and Bermuda, National Hurricane Center Director Mike Brennan said. Despite staying well off the coast, Erin will cause dangerous surf conditions up and down practically the entire East Coast, from Florida all the way up to New England beaches, Pydynowski said. The conditions will include high waves and dangerous rip currents. The Outer Banks could see some beach erosion and coastal flooding from high waves, he said. Erin is expected to bring dangerous conditions to offshore waters and beaches along the Northeast Florida coast from Aug. 18 - 21, including rip currents and rough, high surf with breakers greater than 7 feet on the 19th and 20th, said the weather service office in Jacksonville, Florida. Weather conditions may seem ideal for a beach trip, but these types of conditions are when rip current fatalities tend to occur, Brennan said. Rip currents may not be visible from shore, so beachgoers should swim near lifeguards and pay attention to posted warnings. 'Catastrophic' Erin underwent unusually rapid intensification Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) strengthens by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. In Erin's case, winds strengthened roughly 80 mph in about a day. Erin was declared a hurricane (winds of at least 74 mph) shortly before 11 a.m. on Aug. 15. A day later, it had strengthened into a Category 5 cyclone (winds of at least 157 mph). Warm water ahead of Erin as it moved west, a lack of wind shear and its position far enough away from any land to interfere contributed to the strengthening, Pydynowski said. "These kind of rapid intensification events do occur, but that much that quickly is certainly more toward the uncommon end of things," he said. Data shows Hurricane Erin's remarkable power Since 1979, only Hurricane Allen in 1980 had a lower minimum central pressure by August 16, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. Lower pressure in a hurricane means a stronger storm. Since 1970, only 5 storms in the Atlantic hurricane basin have had 145 mph maximum winds or more by Aug. 16: Allen in 1980, Charley in 2004, Dennis in 2005, Emily in 2005 and Beryl in 2004, Klotzbach noted. -Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver Another disturbance off the East Coast Another tropical disturbance off the East Coast of the United States had little chance of forming as of Aug. 16, forecasters said. Disturbance 1 is an area of low pressure off the coast of North Carolina that has about a 10% chance of development into a cyclone, but will likely lose steam by early next week, the hurricane center said. It was producing showers to the east of its center over the Atlantic. Hurricane Erin spaghetti models Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. How do hurricanes form? Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Prepare now for hurricanes Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends. Prepare now for hurricanes: Here's what you should do to stay safe before a hurricane arrives Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there. Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you're evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you're going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath, NOAA said. Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance check-up to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn't cover flooding, so you'll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period. Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down your hurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation. Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home's ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings. Contributing: Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Live hurricane tracker updates show Erin's path, spaghetti models
USA Today
2 days ago
- Climate
- USA Today
Hurricane Erin strengthens to a fierce Category 5 storm in the Atlantic
Hurricane Erin rapidly strengthened into a Category 5 storm. It is not expected to make a direct hit on the U.S. but will create dangerous surf. Hurricane Erin, on Saturday, Aug. 16, strengthened into a fearsome Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph as the storm traveled west over the Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane is not expected to make a direct hit on the United States, but it will still drive dangerous surf conditions along the East Coast. "We still expect this to eventually make a more northward turn and stay offshore of the East Coast of the United States. So that certainly is good news when dealing with a storm this powerful," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told USA TODAY. Under the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Category 5 hurricanes are the strongest possible, with minimum winds of 157 mph. On the afternoon of Aug. 16, Erin was passing to the north of the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean and was just over 200 miles from San Juan, Puerto Rico. By evening, the hurricane was continuing to pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, prompting the Government of the Bahamas to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands. According to the National Hurricane Center, tropical storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next 48 hours. Additionally, tropical storm force wind gusts are possible in the southeast Bahamas beginning Sunday, Aug. 17, the center said. Erin is only the fifth Category 5 hurricane on record to form this early in the hurricane season and the only Category 5 observed outside the Gulf or Caribbean this early in the year, according to WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October. The first hurricane of the Atlantic season, on average, forms on about Aug. 11. Where is Hurricane Erin? Storm path tracker As of 8 p.m. ET on Aug. 16, Erin was about 160 miles northwest of Anguilla, among the northern Leeward Islands, and 150 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. It was moving west at about 15 mph with wind speeds of 150 mph. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Erin strengthened rapidly and is expected to grow Erin formed as a hurricane on Aug. 15. It was the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, and quickly became the first major hurricane as well. A major hurricane is one that reaches at least Category 3 status. "(B)y the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic," the hurricane center said. Erin's hurricane-force winds had a mean diameter of 43 miles on Aug. 16 but are expected to increase to 132 miles in diameter by Aug. 19, while its tropical storm force winds are forecast to reach a mean diameter of 385 miles over the same period. The storm's outer bands of rain were already beginning to impact the northern Leeward Islands, forecasters said on Aug. 16. Heavy rainfall is expected in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for the rest of the weekend, bringing 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized amounts of 6 inches and possible flash flooding. In its 5 p.m. update, the hurricane center said, "Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday." Erin's intensity is expected to fluctuate during the next 24 hours, but it should "remain a strong hurricane during this time," according to hurricane center forecaster Jack Beven. "Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next several days," Beven said in the hurricane center's 5 p.m. update. "In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic." What is an eyewall replacement cycle? According to an 8 p.m. update from the hurricane center, Erin is possibly undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says an eyewall replacement cycle is a natural occurrence for intense hurricanes, such as Erin, in which a new eyewall (ring of thunderstorms) forms outside the existing one, eventually replacing it. "As a hurricane grows older, it is common for the eyewall to eventually weaken and get replaced by a newer, larger eyewall," according to the NOAA. When a hurricane has a newer, larger eyewall, it can "bring dangerous weather over a larger region than the older, smaller eyewall would have," the government agency says. During the eyewall replacement cycle, hurricanes often undergo temporary changes in strength (both up and down). The NOAA added that what causes the newer, larger eyewall to form during this process is "not well understood." Ways communities in Coastal North Carolina can prepare for Hurricane Erin With Hurricane Erin predicted to move between the Outer Banks and Bermuda, North Carolina Emergency Management has offered guidance for people on the coast to prepare. In an Aug. 16 Facebook post, the state agency said people in Coastal North Carolina should: The NWS Morehead City, North Carolina, said on the afternoon of Saturday, Aug. 16, that a strong long-period swell from Erin will begin to arrive late on the night of Sunday, Aug. 17. Those in the area should expect heightened rip current threats through the upcoming week with swell and seas peaking Wednesday, Aug. 20, into Thursday, Aug. 21. The Dare County Sheriff's Office, located within the Outer Banks, said in a Facebook post on Saturday, Aug. 16, that people along the coast who "routinely see ocean overwash due to no dune between them and the ocean" should "be ready to protect (their) property and to move away from the oceanfront." What happens to a hurricane that doesn't make landfall? If a hurricane does not make landfall, it will eventually dissipate over the ocean, according to the Hurricanes: Science and Society (HSS). Once a storm moves northward – in the Northern Hemisphere – out of the tropical ocean and into mid-latitudes, "It begins to move over colder water, again losing the warm water source necessary to drive the hurricane," according to the HSS. "As less moisture is evaporated into the atmosphere to supply cloud formation, the storm weakens," the educational resource says. "Sometimes, even in the tropical oceans, colder water churned up from beneath the sea surface by the hurricane can cause the hurricane to weaken." According to the center's 5 p.m. update, the slow weakening of Erin is expected to begin on Monday, Aug. 18. If a hurricane does make landfall, it usually decays quickly because the storm requires evaporation from the warm ocean surface to survive, according to the HSS. What impacts will Hurricane Erin have on the US? Erin is expected to make a turn to the north and avoid making landfall altogether. It will pass somewhere between North Carolina's Outer Banks and Bermuda, National Hurricane Center Director Mike Brennan said. Despite staying well off the coast, Erin will cause dangerous surf conditions up and down practically the entire East Coast, from Florida all the way up to New England beaches, Pydynowski said. The conditions will include high waves and dangerous rip currents. The Outer Banks could see some beach erosion and coastal flooding from high waves, he said. Erin is expected to bring dangerous conditions to offshore waters and beaches along the Northeast Florida coast from Aug. 18 - 21, including rip currents and rough, high surf with breakers greater than 7 feet on the 19th and 20th, said the weather service office in Jacksonville, Florida. Weather conditions may seem ideal for a beach trip, but these types of conditions are when rip current fatalities tend to occur, Brennan said. Rip currents may not be visible from shore, so beachgoers should swim near lifeguards and pay attention to posted warnings. 'Catastrophic' Erin underwent unusually rapid intensification Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) strengthens by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. In Erin's case, winds strengthened to roughly 80 mph in about a day. Erin was declared a hurricane (winds of at least 74 mph) shortly before 11 a.m. on Aug. 15. A day later, it had strengthened into a Category 5 cyclone (winds of at least 157 mph). Warm water ahead of Erin as it moved west, a lack of wind shear and its position far enough away from any land to interfere contributed to the strengthening, Pydynowski said. "These kind of rapid intensification events do occur, but that much that quickly is certainly more toward the uncommon end of things," he said. Data shows Hurricane Erin's remarkable power Since 1979, only Hurricane Allen in 1980 had a lower minimum central pressure by August 16, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. Lower pressure in a hurricane means a stronger storm. Since 1970, only 5 storms in the Atlantic hurricane basin have had 145 mph maximum winds or more by Aug. 16: Allen in 1980, Charley in 2004, Dennis in 2005, Emily in 2005 and Beryl in 2004, Klotzbach noted. Another disturbance off the East Coast Another tropical disturbance off the East Coast of the United States had little chance of forming as of Aug. 16, forecasters said. Disturbance 1 is an area of low pressure off the coast of North Carolina that has about a 10% chance of development into a cyclone, but will likely lose steam by early next week, the hurricane center said. It was producing showers to the east of its center over the Atlantic. Hurricane Erin spaghetti models Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. How do hurricanes form? Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Prepare now for hurricanes Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends. Prepare now for hurricanes: Here's what you should do to stay safe before a hurricane arrives
