Latest news with #DanPydynowski
Newsweek
3 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Hurricane Season Update: Storm Alvin Could Form Wednesday
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The first storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season could form as early as Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which reports that a low-pressure system south of Mexico is likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, Alvin. Why It Matters The 2024 hurricane season resulted in substantial losses, with storms impacting the Gulf and Caribbean regions. Major storms like Hurricane Beryl struck the Caribbean and Mexico, and later storms, including Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, caused fatalities and economic losses estimated at $78.7 billion and $34.3 billion, respectively, according to the BBC, citing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data. What To Know "Environmental conditions remain favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight as the low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 [miles per hour]," the NHC said in a Wednesday morning update. The tropical rainstorm is expected to continue developing today, potentially reaching tropical depression or tropical storm status as it moves northwest. As it tracks farther over the Pacific later this week, it may intensify into a hurricane, forecasters at AccuWeather said. A forecast map from AccuWeather shows the system's expected path. A forecast map from AccuWeather shows the system's expected path. AccuWeather However, by the weekend, the system is likely to weaken as it approaches Mexico, encountering cooler waters and stronger wind shear. Despite this, it could still deliver locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along parts of Mexico's west-central coast from late week into the weekend, according to AccuWeather. A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 38 mph or less, according to the NHC. In contrast, a tropical storm features sustained winds ranging from 39 to 73 mph. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15. It runs through November 30. What People Are Saying Fox Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said: "That's usually how things work for the [Eastern Pacific]. You know, our water temperatures cool significantly off of Baja. This will generally be indirect impacts because, although this is tracking towards Baja and also the Pacific coast of Mexico, it will no longer be a tropical system at that point because the water temperature is significantly cooler." AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek: "Both the Atlantic and East Pacific name lists rotate every 6 years. Storms with major land impacts are 'retired.' A meeting every year of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) determines which names from the previous year should be retired. Storm list names are maintained and updated by the WMO." What Happens Next AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes in the eastern Pacific for 2025. In comparison, the historical averages are 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Eyes on the southwest Atlantic for early-June tropical development
Soon after the likely formation of the first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific basin, there will be some opportunities for tropical development in the Atlantic, perhaps close to Florida, Central America and Mexico, during the first couple of weeks of June, AccuWeather meteorologists say. June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Early-season tropical storm formation often has many obstacles, including harsh winds (strong wind shear), dry air and cool water. As the season progresses, moist air, warmer waters and lessening wind shear make it easier for tropical storms to form. AccuWeather meteorologists look for atmospheric patterns that can help jump-start tropical development early in the season, when conditions are typically less favorable. The Central America gyre is a large, slowly spinning area of low pressure that usually forms over Central America and can sometimes give birth to early-season storms. This failed to form in early May, which is why no tropical storms formed during that time. Another setup that can aid early-season development is a lingering front in the Gulf, the Caribbean, or the southwest Atlantic. When a front stalls, it can create enough moisture and upward motion in the atmosphere to gradually support tropical formation. "We will be watching a zone stretching from Florida waters to the Bahamas and Cuba during the first few days of June," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said. This area will produce a broad region of showers and thunderstorms, which may help ease dry conditions over the Florida Peninsula. Any tropical development in this zone during the first few days of June is unlikely, but that could change if some slight spin develops in the region. •Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+ Just a few days later, over the western and central Caribbean, the combination of that lingering front, congregating moisture, and perhaps a tropical wave could assist in stirring up some tropical trouble, Pydnowski explained. A tropical wave is a ripple of low pressure that often contains showers and thunderstorms and travels from east to west across the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. Pydnowski noted that any potential development is still about 10 days out, and conditions that support tropical organization may not come together. Beyond a couple of tropical waves of low pressure moving westward, much of the tropical Atlantic appeared to be mostly free of cloud cover Tuesday. The areas near Central America, the Caribbean Islands, and the southeastern part of North America are the favored spots for early-season tropical development. AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters, including lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, is expecting 13-18 named storms this season, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes. Of these, three to six are forecast to have a direct impact on the United States. Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Storm crawling through Southeast will raise the risk for flooding, damaging thunderstorms
Mother's Day plans may have to be moved indoors, as a slow-moving storm will bring soaking rainfall and locally gusty thunderstorms to the region over the next few days, warn AccuWeather meteorologists. The flow around the storm will result in a nearly-continuous pull of moisture-rich air off the Gulf, heightening the risk of flooding from repeated downpours. While the rain is needed for some, it could be too much of a good thing, too quickly, as rain gauges can top 8 inches in spots by early in the new week. "Traveling to and from mom's house could be slowed greatly by downpours," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. "That heavy rain can reduce visibility and lead to ponding on highways such as Interstates 10 and 20." Two months' worth of rain coming in two days In the wake of bringing heavy rain and flooding across the lower Mississippi Valley earlier in the week, downpours in association with the storm were spreading across the Southeast during the first half of the weekend. AccuWeather forecasters say it will not let up anytime the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+ After soaking the Gulf Coast states on Mother's Day, the rain and thunderstorms will spread north into more of the Tennessee Valley, the Carolinas, Appalachians and mid-Atlantic through the early part of the week. In some areas, rain can fall at a rate of more than an inch per hour, overwhelming storm drains. Portions of nearly a dozen states from Louisiana to Florida and north to Virginia and West Virginia were forecast by AccuWeather to measure at least 2 inches of rain from the storm. The area most at risk for multiple inches of rain will be closer to the source of moisture, from northern Florida into far southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia, where the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches can occur. In a typical May, 3 to 4 inches of rain will fall across much of the Southeast, but this storm has the potential to drop double that amount in two days' time or less, heightening the risk of flooding on streets, highways, poor drainage areas and along some streams and creeks. Despite unfortunately impacting Mother's Day and other outdoor events, such as graduations, sporting events or vacations, the rain is much-needed for some. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released on Thursday, much of the Florida panhandle north to the eastern Carolinas and Appalachians were experiencing moderate drought conditions or worse. The area with the worst drought conditions-the Florida Peninsula-will unfortunately miss the lion's share of the rain, but can see a few beneficial showers and storms into the new week. Flooding of a different variety can also occur as the storm moves north along the Eastern Seaboard through Tuesday, thanks to a flow off the Atlantic and a favorable moon phase. Coastal flooding around times of high tide can occur, impacting vulnerable spots along the coast, including Charleston, South Carolina. Thunderstorms can turn severe, as well It's not just flooding rain that can occur in the Southeast into the new week, but a few localized damaging thunderstorms, as well, warn AccuWeather severe weather experts. Ingredients including plentiful moisture, atmospheric energy and cooler air in the upper atmosphere will come together to heighten this risk. "Heavy rain will not be the only hazard realized from some of the storms," said Pydynowski. "A few of them can also contain isolated damaging wind gusts and hailstones." After spawning waterspouts and tornadoes, as well as bringing gusty winds to the Florida panhandle on Saturday, thunderstorms are expected expand in coverage on Mother's Day, encompassing metropolitan areas as far north as Birmingham, Alabama, and Savannah, Georgia. By Monday, millions more to the north around Metro Atlanta, and south around Orlando and Tampa, Florida, will be at risk for strong storms. While flooding downpours will remain the primary concern in any storm, an isolated or tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Drier, quieter weather will finally return to much of the Southeast by the middle of the week, beginning Wednesday in some areas, also accompanied by an increase in temperature as the heat that had been roasting portions of the West and nation's midsection builds east. Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Will the Northeast catch a rain break in time for Mother's Day?
A storm clearing out of the Northeast this weekend will pave the way for sunshine and seasonable spring temperatures just in time to celebrate moms and mother figures alike on Sunday. "A zone of high pressure over the Northeast will set the stage for a sunny and comfortable Mother's Day," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said. Rain will linger across New England on Saturday as drier air noses southward into the mid-Atlantic. By Sunday, the entire region will be largely free of cloud cover and wet conditions. "Many areas across the interior of New England, New York state and northern Pennsylvania will start off chilly on Sunday morning with temperatures in the 30s F, so Mom may need a jacket if you are taking her out to breakfast," Pydynowski said. Sensitive plants or flowers may need to be covered or brought indoors on Saturday and Sunday nights to prevent possible damage. "By Sunday afternoon, plenty of sunshine will boost temperatures into the 60s and 70s across much of the Northeast, making for great conditions for an afternoon cookout or picnic," Pydynowski the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+ Washington, D.C., Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and New York City are expected to string together three consecutive dry days from Saturday through Monday, a welcome reprieve following the daily bouts of rain during the first full week of May. The weather observation site in Central Park has recorded 2.10 inches of rain as of May 8, which is 208% of the month-to-date historical average rainfall. "The consecutive dry days in these areas will give plenty of flexibility for catching up on lawn maintenance, outdoor exercise, yard sales, college graduations and sports-related activities," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. Changes will be on the horizon heading into the middle of next week as a storm drenching the Southeast through the weekend crawls northward Tuesday into Wednesday. "Moisture will move across parts of the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in increased rain chances," Pydynowski said. The slow-moving nature of the storm and light winds in the atmosphere can result in downpours that sit over the same area for several hours, increasing the risk of localized flooding. A few stronger thunderstorms are also possible along the Southeast coast, perhaps as far north as the Delmarva Peninsula. Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Yahoo
26-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Dynamic weather pattern to bring rain for some in Northeast, but increase fire risk for others
A changeable weather pattern will bring rounds of rain and temperature swings to the Northeast for the final days of April and the first few of May. The series of storms and cold fronts making for the topsy-turvy weather will not be equal opportunity, however, as parts of the region will miss out on meaningful rain and experience a continued risk for wildfires, warn AccuWeather meteorologists. The first round of rain in association with this dynamic pattern was moving through the Northeast this weekend. While localized downpours and even gusty winds can occur into Saturday night, the rain is much-needed, not just because it has been about two weeks since the last meaningful rain in parts of the area but because pollen has been building up much to the chagrin of allergy sufferers. A cold front moving through behind this area of rain will usher in a drier second half of the weekend, but it will also bring an enhanced risk for fires due in part to gusty winds. This cycle will repeat itself at least once more in the coming week, and it will come in the wake of recent major wildfires in the region. Gusty winds to lead to an elevated risk for fires into Monday A drier, cooler air mass will allow the masses to resume outdoor activities during the second half of the weekend in the Northeast, but it will bring its own problems, warn AccuWeather meteorologists. "Despite the rain Saturday, a fire threat will quickly return to parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic on Sunday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. "This includes much of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, where there have been large fires recently." The Jones Road Fire, which has scorched over 15,000 acres in Ocean County, New Jersey, and is 60 percent contained, as of early this weekend, was one of those fires. Other large blazes occurred in central Pennsylvania. "Afternoon relative humidity values across much of the region can drop to around 30 percent Sunday," warned Pydynowski. "This lowering of the humidity, coupled with northwesterly wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph and plenty of sun will quickly dry out brush, grass, leaves, pine needles and other fine fuels which can cause any small fire to quickly spread out of control." Because of the enhanced risk, outdoor burning is not advised from eastern West Virginia and Virginia north to southern New England to end the weekend. Even something as benign as mowing the lawn or string trimming near metal edging can create sparks that can turn into infernos. While winds will be lighter by Monday, continued dry conditions will still keep the risk for fires elevated. More opportunities for rain, but also fires later in the week Following that round of dry weather that will last into the start of Tuesday for many, another front in association with rain and thunderstorms will arrive by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, say AccuWeather meteorologists. While this front can again bring locally heavy rain, and even a threat of severe weather for some, it will tend to lose energy and moisture as it approaches the Atlantic coast. Behind the front later Wednesday, another round of gusty winds and lower humidity levels can once again increase the risk for fires, especially in southern New England. Depending on the progress of another storm and front late in the week, it's possible there can be a third opportunity for fire danger in the region during the first weekend in the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+ Despite the rounds of dry, gusty winds in the wake of storms and fronts, there will be some opportunities for much-needed rain in the region. According to the latest Drought Monitor released Thursday morning, severe drought conditions were still present in portions of Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, despite improvements seen in March and early April. Temperature swings and even a risk of frost for some this week? Accompanying the rounds of rain and then drier weather will be wild temperature swings, which will see the mercury rise into the 80s some days and then dive into the 60s the next in parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. An initial cooldown to end the weekend will be replaced by a surge in temperature Tuesday afternoon, with the mercury rising well into the 80s as far north as New York City. As quickly as it warms, it will cool back down for the middle and end of the week. In addition, a late-season frost will be possible over the course of a couple of nights in the normally cooler enclaves of the interior Northeast, Sunday night, Wednesday night and perhaps again late in the upcoming weekend. Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
