Latest news with #DanielSwain
The Star
3 days ago
- Climate
- The Star
Highways baking at 70 deg Celsius signal a red-hot summer from China to the US
SOUTH-EAST ASIA (Bloomberg): In northern China, road surfaces have soared to 158 Ferenheit (70 degrees Celsius). In California's Central Valley, temperatures are reaching into the triple digits Fahrenheit. Across much of Spain, the mercury has risen so high that it's prompting warnings for tourists. Weeks before the official start of the Northern Hemisphere's summer, signs are emerging that the coming months will be blistering in North America, Europe and Asia. There's even a chance that the season could shatter global high-temperature records, said Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. The scorching conditions threaten to tax power grids, wilt crops and send energy prices soaring across three continents. Hot, dry weather is also elevating the risk of wildfires, with blazes already erupting in Alberta, the epicenter of Canada's oil industry. The human and economic consequences are dire: Extreme heat is expected to inflict about US$200 billion in annual losses in the US alone by 2030, a number that will more than double by 2050, according to one estimate. All three northern continents face sweltering temperatures fueled by climate change - particularly the western and central US and Canada, as well as western and northern Europe, Swain said. Because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, these regions will also see areas of intense rain and flooding, he said. "I'd expect to see further instances of extreme to record-shattering downpours and flood events in regions prone to heavy precipitation during the warm season,' Swain said. In the Atlantic, the heat is raising ocean temperatures, boosting the odds of an unusually active hurricane season. The absence of El Niño, a warming of the equatorial Pacific that can cause storm-wrecking wind conditions across the Atlantic, also means more hurricanes and tropical storms may develop and grow in the Atlantic and Caribbean, including oil- and gas-producing areas along the US Gulf Coast. From 1980 to 2024, tropical storms and hurricanes caused more than $1.5 trillion worth of damage and killed at least 7,211 people in the US, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. Due to kinks in the summer jet stream, there is a rising chance of derechos - wide arcs of severe thunderstorms that can travel hundreds of miles and cause billions of dollars in damage - across the Midwest and northern Plains, said Paul Pastelok, lead US long-range forecaster at AccuWeather Inc. This turmoil across the continent may also leave the Gulf Coast, particularly Texas, vulnerable to more hurricane strikes. The sizzling weather will increase energy demand. About 89 million people across three grids spanning parts of the central US are at elevated risk of power supply shortfalls this summer, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corp. Power prices across the grid stretching from Chicago to the Mid-Atlantic are likely to rise with sustained heat because of low coal stockpiles, Bank of America analysts led by Francisco Blanch wrote in a note to clients. New England power is also vulnerable to spikes, the analysts said. US natural gas price gains have been muted so far despite the prospect of hot weather and rising exports of the power-plant fuel to Europe and Asia. But the chances of gas reaching $4.60 per million British thermal units this year - a jump of more than 30% from current levels - are rising as the heat could limit stockpile increases, leaving the market primed for a rally before winter heating demand kicks in, according to analysts with RBC Capital markets led by Christopher Louney. Extreme heat also threatens to wither crops and shrivel rivers, raising food prices as the cost of goods and services remains elevated. Drought has been intensifying in areas of the US where soy, corn or wheat is grown. If the parched conditions persist, water levels on the Mississippi River could drop, roiling barge traffic that's crucial to transporting crops across the country. Dry Europe Across Europe, the world's fastest-warming continent, little rainfall and early drying has set the stage for intense heat waves, droughts and dangerous wildfire conditions, commercial meteorologists and government forecasters say. Forecast models favor high-pressure weather patterns emerging and enduring this summer, similar to ones that plagued the continent during the first few months of the year. Those patterns suppressed wind speeds and cloud cover, leading to low wind generation and record solar power in Europe - a scenario likely to repeat this summer, according to Atmospheric G2. The high pressure is also likely to block North Atlantic ocean moisture, boosting the risk of heat waves and worsening drought, said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist with the weather analytics firm. "I personally fear that we will hear a lot about extremes this summer,' he said. In Portugal and Spain last week, one of the hottest air masses in more than three decades pushed in from Africa, sending temperatures above 100F. The heat comes after an April 28 blackout left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for hours, hitting public transport, telecommunications systems and other services. With high pressure isolating regions from the cooling effect of moist westerly winds, temperatures in central and southern Europe could climb especially high. While that pattern is expected to reduce the chances of rain, rising heat could supercharge storms that do manage to form with torrential rain and damaging hail. Though water levels on the Rhine River have improved after rains in recent weeks, a recurrence of drought could upend a crucial trade route and send barge rates soaring. Long-term forecast models show conditions could support heavy rain in western Norway and the northern UK from June through August, according to data from Europe's Copernicus satellite program. Asia Outlook In Asia, Japan will likely have a warmer-than-normal summer, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. South-East Asia will also be hotter than average, the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre said. China, with the exception of some far northern areas, is expected to bake this June as well, the China Meteorological Administration said. Drought in the northern part of the country has hit the wheat crop during a key growth period, threatening output of a staple food grain just as Beijing remains entangled in a trade war with the US, a major agricultural products supplier. Though rains are forecast in the region, providing some relief to the parched farm fields, the quick swing from dry to wet raises the risk of floods, landslides and crop damage. Already, intense heat in parts of China has sent asphalt temperatures surging. The National Energy Administration expects peak electricity demand to be about 100 gigawatts higher this summer than last year, the equivalent of needing to turn on all the power plants in the UK at once. Across the Northern Hemisphere, the extreme heat is a reflection of how much warmer the Earth is compared with a few decades ago, Swain said. Since 1959, Europe in particular, but parts of the Pacific Northwest, northeastern Canada, as well as parts of Mexico, Africa and the Middle East have seen a marked increase in summer heat. "An increase in heat extremes is the most obvious symptom of climate change,' said Karen McKinnon, a professor who studies the statistics behind climate change at UCLA. "Even seemingly small changes in temperatures of a few degrees can make summers feel substantially more extreme.' --With assistance from Dan Murtaugh, Naureen S Malik and Hallie Gu. -- ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Straits Times
3 days ago
- Climate
- Straits Times
Highways baking at 70 deg C signal a red-hot summer from China to the US
Signs are emerging that the coming months will be blistering in North America, Europe and Asia. PHOTO: EPA-EFE Highways baking at 70 deg C signal a red-hot summer from China to the US WASHINGTON – In northern China, road surfaces have soared to 158F (70 deg C). In California's Central Valley, temperatures are reaching into the triple digits Fahrenheit. Across much of Spain, the mercury has risen so high that it's prompting warnings for tourists. Weeks before the official start of the Northern Hemisphere's summer, signs are emerging that the coming months will be blistering in North America, Europe and Asia. There's even a chance that the season could shatter global high-temperature records, said Dr Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. The scorching conditions threaten to tax power grids, wilt crops and send energy prices soaring across three continents. Hot, dry weather is also elevating the risk of wildfires, with blazes already erupting in Alberta, the epicentre of Canada's oil industry. The human and economic consequences are dire: Extreme heat is expected to inflict about US$200 billion (S$257.76 billion) in annual losses in the US alone by 2030, a number that will more than double by 2050, according to one estimate. All three northern continents face sweltering temperatures fuelled by climate change – particularly the western and central US and Canada, as well as western and northern Europe, Dr Swain said. Because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, these regions will also see areas of intense rain and flooding, he said. 'I'd expect to see further instances of extreme to record-shattering downpours and flood events in regions prone to heavy precipitation during the warm season,' Dr Swain said. In the Atlantic, the heat is raising ocean temperatures, boosting the odds of an unusually active hurricane season. The absence of El Nino, a warming of the equatorial Pacific that can cause storm-wrecking wind conditions across the Atlantic, also means more hurricanes and tropical storms may develop and grow in the Atlantic and Caribbean, including oil- and gas-producing areas along the US Gulf Coast. Due to kinks in the summer jet stream, there is a rising chance of derechos – wide arcs of severe thunderstorms that can travel hundreds of miles and cause billions of dollars in damage – across the Midwest and northern Plains, said Mr Paul Pastelok, lead US long-range forecaster at AccuWeather Inc. This turmoil across the continent may also leave the Gulf Coast, particularly Texas, vulnerable to more hurricane strikes. The sizzling weather will increase energy demand. About 89 million people across three grids spanning parts of the central US are at elevated risk of power supply shortfalls this summer, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corp. Power prices across the grid stretching from Chicago to the Mid-Atlantic are likely to rise with sustained heat because of low coal stockpiles, Bank of America analysts led by Francisco Blanch wrote in a note to clients. New England power is also vulnerable to spikes, the analysts said. US natural gas price gains have been muted so far despite the prospect of hot weather and rising exports of the power-plant fuel to Europe and Asia. But the chances of gas reaching US$4.60 per million British thermal units this year – a jump of more than 30 per cent from current levels – are rising as the heat could limit stockpile increases, leaving the market primed for a rally before winter heating demand kicks in, according to analysts with RBC Capital markets led by Mr Christopher Louney. Extreme heat also threatens to wither crops and shrivel rivers, raising food prices as the cost of goods and services remains elevated. Drought has been intensifying in areas of the US where soy, corn or wheat is grown. If the parched conditions persist, water levels on the Mississippi River could drop, roiling barge traffic that's crucial to transporting crops across the country. Dry Europe Across Europe, the world's fastest-warming continent, little rainfall and early drying has set the stage for intense heat waves, droughts and dangerous wildfire conditions, commercial meteorologists and government forecasters say. Forecast models favour high-pressure weather patterns emerging and enduring this summer, similar to ones that plagued the continent during the first few months of the year. Those patterns suppressed wind speeds and cloud cover, leading to low wind generation and record solar power in Europe – a scenario likely to repeat this summer, according to Atmospheric G2. The high pressure is also likely to block North Atlantic ocean moisture, boosting the risk of heat waves and worsening drought, said Mr Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist with the weather analytics firm. 'I personally fear that we will hear a lot about extremes this summer,' he said. In Portugal and Spain last week, one of the hottest air masses in more than three decades pushed in from Africa, sending temperatures above 100F (37.7 deg C). The heat comes after an April 28 blackout left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for hours, hitting public transport, telecommunications systems and other services. With high pressure isolating regions from the cooling effect of moist westerly winds, temperatures in central and southern Europe could climb especially high. While that pattern is expected to reduce the chances of rain, rising heat could supercharge storms that do manage to form with torrential rain and damaging hail. Though water levels on the Rhine River have improved after rains in recent weeks, a recurrence of drought could upend a crucial trade route and send barge rates soaring. Long-term forecast models show conditions could support heavy rain in western Norway and the northern UK from June through August, according to data from Europe's Copernicus satellite programme. Asia outlook In Asia, Japan will likely have a warmer-than-normal summer, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. South-east Asia will also be hotter than average, the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre said. China, with the exception of some far northern areas, is expected to bake this June as well, the China Meteorological Administration said. Drought in the northern part of the country has hit the wheat crop during a key growth period, threatening output of a staple food grain just as Beijing remains entangled in a trade war with the US, a major agricultural products supplier. Though rains are forecast in the region, providing some relief to the parched farm fields, the quick swing from dry to wet raises the risk of floods, landslides and crop damage. Already, intense heat in parts of China has sent asphalt temperatures surging. The National Energy Administration expects peak electricity demand to be about 100 gigawatts higher this summer than 2024, the equivalent of needing to turn on all the power plants in the UK at once. Across the Northern Hemisphere, the extreme heat is a reflection of how much warmer the Earth is compared with a few decades ago, Dr Swain said. Since 1959, Europe in particular, but parts of the Pacific North-west, north-eastern Canada, as well as parts of Mexico, Africa and the Middle East have seen a marked increase in summer heat. 'An increase in heat extremes is the most obvious symptom of climate change,' said Dr Karen McKinnon, a professor who studies the statistics behind climate change at UCLA. 'Even seemingly small changes in temperatures of a few degrees can make summers feel substantially more extreme.' BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Business Times
3 days ago
- Climate
- Business Times
Highways baking at 70 deg C signal a red-hot summer from China to the US
[BOSTON/LONDON/HONG KONG] In northern China, road surfaces have soared to 70 deg C. In California's Central Valley, temperatures are reaching into the triple digits Fahrenheit. Across much of Spain, the mercury has risen so high that it's prompting warnings for tourists. Weeks before the official start of the Northern Hemisphere's summer, signs are emerging that the coming months will be blistering in North America, Europe and Asia. There's even a chance that the season could shatter global high-temperature records, said Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. The scorching conditions threaten to tax power grids, wilt crops and send energy prices soaring across three continents. Hot, dry weather is also elevating the risk of wildfires, with blazes already erupting in Alberta, the epicentre of Canada's oil industry. The human and economic consequences are dire: Extreme heat is expected to inflict about US$200 billion in annual losses in the US alone by 2030, a number that will more than double by 2050, according to one estimate. All three northern continents face sweltering temperatures fuelled by climate change – particularly the western and central US and Canada, as well as western and northern Europe, Swain said. Because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, these regions will also see areas of intense rain and flooding, he said. 'I'd expect to see further instances of extreme to record-shattering downpours and flood events in regions prone to heavy precipitation during the warm season,' Swain said. In the Atlantic, the heat is raising ocean temperatures, boosting the odds of an unusually active hurricane season. The absence of El Nino, a warming of the equatorial Pacific that can cause storm-wrecking wind conditions across the Atlantic, also means more hurricanes and tropical storms may develop and grow in the Atlantic and Caribbean, including oil- and gas-producing areas along the US Gulf Coast. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 12.30 pm ESG Insights An exclusive weekly report on the latest environmental, social and governance issues. Sign Up Sign Up Due to kinks in the summer jet stream, there is a rising chance of derechos – wide arcs of severe thunderstorms that can travel hundreds of miles and cause billions of US dollars in damage – across the Midwest and northern Plains, said Paul Pastelok, lead US long-range forecaster at AccuWeather. This turmoil across the continent may also leave the Gulf Coast, particularly Texas, vulnerable to more hurricane strikes. The sizzling weather will increase energy demand. About 89 million people across three grids spanning parts of the central US are at elevated risk of power supply shortfalls this summer, according to the North American Electric Reliability. Power prices across the grid stretching from Chicago to the Mid-Atlantic are likely to rise with sustained heat because of low coal stockpiles, Bank of America analysts led by Francisco Blanch wrote in a note to clients. New England power is also vulnerable to spikes, the analysts said. US natural gas price gains have been muted so far despite the prospect of hot weather and rising exports of the power plant fuel to Europe and Asia. But the chances of gas reaching US$4.60 per million British thermal units this year – a jump of more than 30 per cent from current levels – are rising as the heat could limit stockpile increases, leaving the market primed for a rally before winter heating demand kicks in, according to analysts with RBC Capital markets led by Christopher Louney. Extreme heat also threatens to wither crops and shrivel rivers, raising food prices as the cost of goods and services remains elevated. Drought has been intensifying in areas of the US where soy, corn or wheat is grown. If the parched conditions persist, water levels on the Mississippi River could drop, roiling barge traffic that's crucial to transporting crops across the country. Dry Europe Across Europe, the world's fastest-warming continent, little rainfall and early drying has set the stage for intense heat waves, droughts and dangerous wildfire conditions, commercial meteorologists and government forecasters say. Forecast models favour high-pressure weather patterns emerging and enduring this summer, similar to ones that plagued the continent during the first few months of the year. Those patterns suppressed wind speeds and cloud cover, leading to low wind generation and record solar power in Europe – a scenario likely to repeat this summer, according to Atmospheric G2. The high pressure is also likely to block North Atlantic ocean moisture, boosting the risk of heat waves and worsening drought, said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist with the weather analytics firm. 'I personally fear that we will hear a lot about extremes this summer,' he said. In Portugal and Spain last week, one of the hottest air masses in more than three decades pushed in from Africa, sending temperatures above 38 deg C. The heat comes after an Apr 28 blackout left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for hours, hitting public transport, telecommunications systems and other services. With high pressure isolating regions from the cooling effect of moist westerly winds, temperatures in central and southern Europe could climb especially high. While that pattern is expected to reduce the chances of rain, rising heat could supercharge storms that do manage to form with torrential rain and damaging hail. Though water levels on the Rhine River have improved after rains in recent weeks, a recurrence of drought could upend a crucial trade route and send barge rates soaring. Long-term forecast models show conditions could support heavy rain in western Norway and the northern UK from June to August, according to data from Europe's Copernicus satellite programme. Asia outlook In Asia, Japan will likely have a warmer-than-normal summer, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. South-east Asia will also be hotter than average, the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre said. China, with the exception of some far northern areas, is expected to bake this June as well, the China Meteorological Administration said. Drought in the northern part of the country has hit the wheat crop during a key growth period, threatening output of a staple food grain just as Beijing remains entangled in a trade war with the US, a major agricultural products supplier. Though rains are forecast in the region, providing some relief to the parched farm fields, the quick swing from dry to wet raises the risk of floods, landslides and crop damage. Already, intense heat in parts of China has sent asphalt temperatures surging. The National Energy Administration expects peak electricity demand to be about 100 gigawatts higher this summer than last year, the equivalent of needing to turn on all the power plants in the UK at once. Across the Northern Hemisphere, the extreme heat is a reflection of how much warmer the Earth is compared with a few decades ago, Swain said. Since 1959, Europe in particular, but parts of the Pacific Northwest, northeastern Canada, as well as parts of Mexico, Africa and the Middle East have seen a marked increase in summer heat. 'An increase in heat extremes is the most obvious symptom of climate change,' said Karen McKinnon, a professor who studies the statistics behind climate change at UCLA. 'Even seemingly small changes in temperatures of a few degrees can make summers feel substantially more extreme.' BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Climate
- Bloomberg
Highways Baking at 158F Signal a Red-Hot Summer From China to the US
In northern China, road surfaces have soared to 158F (70C). In California's Central Valley, temperatures are reaching into the triple digits Fahrenheit. Across much of Spain, the mercury has risen so high that it's prompting warnings for tourists. Weeks before the official start of the Northern Hemisphere's summer, signs are emerging that the coming months will be blistering in North America, Europe and Asia. There's even a chance that the season could shatter global high-temperature records, said Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the University of California, Los Angeles.
USA Today
7 days ago
- Climate
- USA Today
From cool to cruel summer? California wildfire risk may rise even closer to coast
From cool to cruel summer? California wildfire risk may rise even closer to coast The National Interagency Fire Center foresees an elevated chance of blazes igniting across much of California from June through August, Show Caption Hide Caption Explaining health risks that wildfire smoke can cause Find out how you can protect yourself from the dangers of wildfire smoke in California and across the country. SAN FRANCISCO – The major heat wave expected in California's Central Valley this weekend will bring triple-digit temperatures and increased fire risk, a harbinger for what figures to be another scorching summer. And this year the typically cool coastal areas may not be spared, raising the possibility of even more widely spread wildfires for a state long beleaguered by them. The summer wildfire outlook by the National Interagency Fire Center foresees an elevated chance of blazes igniting across much of California from June through August, when vegetation has dried after several weeks broiling under the sun with negligible rainfall. Average temperatures in parts of the Golden State are predicted to climb above historical norms for the summer, which is not surprising as the planet continues to warm. But a more unusual phenomenon may be developing. UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a recent online presentation that weather models are pointing out a notable difference between the upcoming months and recent summers, when the state's hot spots have been mostly centered on inland areas. Higher temperatures even on the coast 'Once we get past May gray and June gloom season,'' he said, 'the rest of the summer and the fall could be quite a bit warmer along the California coast than the last few years have been, while inland areas once again are fairly likely to experience a near-record warm summer in many cases.'' That's a worrisome prospect after a fire season that included the fourth-largest blaze in state history – the Park Fire outside Chico burned nearly 430,000 acres – and the devastating Los Angeles infernos in January, well past the season's typical end point. Over the weekend, temperatures in Central Valley cities such as Sacramento, Fresno and Bakersfield are expected to climb above 100 degrees. The National Weather Service office in Sacramento has already issued an extreme heat watch from early May 30 through late June 1, warning of the dangers of heat-related injuries. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Scott Homan said the chances of wildfires will also be heightened, especially in Southern California after it received below-average precipitation in the winter and early spring. Most of the region is in a drought, and significant parts are in extreme drought. Increased fire risk this weekend and beyond 'With the occasional offshore breezy conditions, it will further dry out any fuels, and then we'll see an uptick in potential grass fires later this week in the valley areas,'' he said. The National Interagency Fire Center noted the snowpack has been melting faster than usual amid warm weather in the West and will dissipate by late June even in mountain areas that had large accumulations, removing a barrier to wildfire spread over the summer. 'In general, we'll continue to see drier weather,'' Homan said. 'Fire risk will increase, especially in areas that are currently in a moderate drought or at least in a dry pattern from the Central Valley on southward.''
