2 days ago
- Business
- Irish Independent
Further growth in employment numbers predicted for 2025
The optimistic forecast is being made despite the recent uptick in the unemployment rate, and with the Central Statistics Office reporting a small decline in employee numbers in June.
The monthly employee index for males decreased by 0.3pc, while for females it was down 0.2pc in the month. Based on age, the largest monthly decrease was in the 15- to 19-year-old category, which was down 2.6pc.
Darragh Turner, a statistician in the labour market and earnings division of the CSO, said while two sectors had a monthly increase in numbers employed, and two were unchanged, 11 showed a decrease.
'The sector that observed the largest monthly fall was services, down 2.3pc, followed by agriculture, forestry and fishing, down 1.5pc,' he said, while pointing out that services is the smallest of the sectors, with 4,400 employees in June.
According to the analysis by Davy, employment growth picked up 2.5pc in the second quarter from 2.3pc in Q1, with growth remaining stronger for higher wage sectors.
'With prior-year revisions to May and June factored in, we estimate that Q2 employee payrolls grew by 2.5pc in year-on-year terms,' said Kevin Timoney, an economist with Davy. 'This is up from 2.3pc in Q1 and is a remarkably strong result despite significantly elevated uncertainty in the first half of this year.'
Davy's analysis of Irish payrolls data shows that February is typically the low point for employment each year, while there is a significant ramp-up in hiring between March and June.
'This makes sense from the perspective that seasonal labour demand for spring and summer workers is highest, and hiring is often necessary in advance of peak months for activity,' it said.
'With last year's revisions to June payrolls included, this suggests an uplift for March-June 2025 of 75,000 workers. The corresponding increases in 2023 and 2024 respectively were 69,000 and 72,000.'
On this basis, Davy says the data suggests 2025 is on course to be another year of increased employment.
High-skill sectors, those with above-average hourly wages, are continuing to drive the growth. 'For the first six months of 2025, the average growth rate for these sectors has exceeded growth for lower-pay sectors by 0.9 of a percentage point,' the Davy analysis says.
'By age group, it is interesting that Q2 saw an increase in year-on-year payrolls growth for young adults to 1.9pc, up from 1.3pc in Q1 and 1.2pc in Q2 2024. Other age groups saw broadly steady payroll growth rates relative to recent months.'
