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NDTV
3 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
Russia Oil Prices To India Dip On Sanctions, Threats: Report
Russian crude is being offered to Indian buyers at lower prices as European Union sanctions and threats of penalties from the US cloud the demand outlook, according to data intelligence firm Kpler Ltd. The price of Urals, the OPEC+ producer's flagship oil, is more than $5 a barrel cheaper than Dated Brent, according to a note on Wednesday from Kpler, which cited Argus data. That compares with almost parity two weeks ago. The downward trend is likely to continue due to uncertainty around US actions, which will trigger a more cautious stance from state-run and private refiners, and plant maintenance in Russia leading to more supply from August to October, according to Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler. Still, replacing Russia's 37% market share will be costly for Indian refiners and it's unlikely they will fully cease imports, Kpler said. State-run companies are considering a pause, although private players are still taking barrels, just at a lower pace, according to the data intelligence firm. India's crude imports from the US have also climbed to around 225,000 barrels a day since May, nearly twice the levels in early 2025, Kpler added.
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Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Russian oil offered to India at discounted rates amid tariff pressure
Russian crude oil is being made available to Indian buyers at lower prices as European Union sanctions and the prospect of penalties from the US dampen demand, according to a report by Bloomberg. Urals crude cheaper than Dated Brent The price of Urals, the OPEC+ producer's flagship crude, is currently more than $5 per barrel below Dated Brent, data intelligence firm Kpler stated in a note released on Wednesday. This reflects a notable drop from the near price parity observed two weeks earlier. Trump doubles tariff on India to 50% The development amid US President Donald Trump's decision to double tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent as a penalty for its continued purchase of Russian oil, intensifying a dispute with New Delhi. Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports, which will be added to the 25 per cent levy announced the previous week. The increased duty is set to take effect within 21 days, allowing time for possible negotiations. India hits back against tariff move The central government responded sharply to the move, asserting that the imports are essential for India's energy security and criticising Trump for targeting India while other nations also continue buying Russian oil. Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi also condemned Trump, referring to him as a 'bully". 'We reiterate that these actions are unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,' a spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement. 'India will take all actions necessary to protect its national interests.' Uncertainty over US action to drive prices lower Homayoun Falakshahi, Kpler's head of crude oil analysis, stated that the downward trend is likely to continue due to uncertainty surrounding potential US measures. This will encourage a more cautious approach from both state-owned and private refiners. Additionally, planned maintenance at Russian refineries is expected to increase crude supply from August through October. Indian Refiners unlikely to fully halt Russian oil imports Kpler noted that despite mounting pressure, it is improbable that Indian refiners will completely cease imports of Russian oil, as substituting Russia's 37 per cent share would be expensive. While state-run firms are considering a temporary pause, private refiners are still securing Russian barrels, though at a reduced pace. India's crude oil imports from the US have risen to around 225,000 barrels per day since May, almost twice the volume recorded in early 2025.
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
IGX July gas trade rises 3% MoM to 4.1 mn MMBtu; benchmark price index down 8% YoY
New Delhi: Indian Gas Exchange (IGX) traded 4.1 million MMBtu (105 MMSCM) of gas in July 2025, registering a 3 per cent month-on-month and 2 per cent year-on-year increase, driven by higher domestic gas sales from producers, according to exchange data. The exchange's benchmark price index, GIXI, for July stood at ₹1,023 or $11.9 per MMBtu, down 8 per cent from a year earlier but up 3 per cent over June. The price trend reflected correction in international markets and continued low demand for gas, particularly from the power sector. International gas prices also softened month-on-month in July. European benchmark TTF settled at $11.7/MMBtu, down 10 per cent from June and up 13 per cent from July last year. WIM was at $13.1/MMBtu, while US Henry Hub was $3.3/MMBtu, down 10 per cent MoM and up 48 per cent YoY. Regionally, GIXI®-West matched the All India index at ₹1,025/$11.9 per MMBtu, while GIXI®-East and South were lower by 3 per cent and 1 per cent respectively due to transmission and tax differentials. GIXI®-Dahej for July was ₹1,009 or $11.7/MMBtu, up 3 per cent MoM, trading at a $1.7/MMBtu (15 per cent) discount to the WIM-Ex Dahej settled price. Free market gas accounted for 47 per cent of traded volumes, with the remaining 53 per cent being domestic high pressure-high temperature (HPHT) gas sold at the ceiling price of ₹867 or $10.04/MMBtu. Nearly 5 MMSCM of domestic gas with pricing freedom was traded at Bokaro (CBM), KG Basin, and Hazira-ONGC delivery points. In July, IGX executed 116 trades, with Dahej as the most active delivery point for free market gas and Gadimoga for ceiling price gas. Other active delivery points included Jaya, Mhaskal, KG Basin, Bokaro, Dabhol, Hazira, and Hazira-ONGC. Contract-wise, fortnightly trades were highest at 43, followed by monthly (28), day-ahead (16), intraday (11), daily (9) and weekly (9) contracts. Exchange-traded deliveries during the month were 6.3 million MMBtu (~5.1 MMSCMD). Sanron Energy Private Limited joined as a new proprietary member during the month, taking the total registered members on IGX to 51. The exchange currently offers trades at 21 delivery points, including six LNG terminals, 12 domestic gas field landfall points, and three pipeline interconnections. IGX provides delivery-based trading in seven spot contracts — intraday, day-ahead, daily, weekday, weekly, fortnightly, and monthly (up to 12 months) — and two long-duration contracts of three and six months linked to benchmarks such as GIXI, JKM, WIM, and Dated Brent
The Star
22-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Uneasy stability in oil markets amid OPEC+ moves, Middle East ceasefire
Oil is going through a period of uneasy calm, but market players are pondering if it's a trend that would last. The higher-than-expected rise in OPEC+ production quotas for August, combined with a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, has provided oil markets some breathing space and introduced a bearish sentiment to prices, but rising expectations of potential additional sanctions on Russia by Washington could soon change the landscape and keep markets on edge. But one thing is becoming increasingly clear – even if geopolitics takes an ugly turn, it may not be able to overshadow the impact on fast-growing global supplies amid relatively slower demand. Amid heightened tensions in the Middle East recently, oil markets experienced a peak in the fear premium when Dated Brent surged past US$80 per barrel. However, in the third quarter of this year, S&P Global Commodity Insights expects Dated Brent to decline to the mid-US$60s per barrel. And by the end of the year, strong oil supply growth relative to demand is expected to push Dated Brent into the US$50s/b. The eight members of the OPEC+ alliance implementing voluntary crude output cuts agreed July 5 to hike their production quotas by 548,000 b/d in August, accelerating their claw back of market share. The group was of the view that members were encouraged by healthy market fundamentals, which was reflected in low oil inventories. The increase is 33% more than the previously agreed monthly increases of 411,000 b/d that the voluntary cutters had agreed in their previous three meetings. And there were expectations that the group would repeat the same for August. The alliance is bringing barrels back to market at a time of high seasonal demand, with the US entering its driving season while Middle East countries burn more oil to meet electricity needs. But despite this, oil markets are heading towards an oversupply scenario in the second half of 2025. Commodity Insights forecasts that the market could witness a surplus of more than 1 million b/d by the end of the year if OPEC+ members fully unwind the voluntary production cuts by October. Global commercial inventories may rise by over 600,000 b/d in August, escalating to an average of 1.7 million b/d from September to December, influenced in part by actual OPEC+ production levels. The sustained increase in OPEC+ output is likely to exert further bearish pressure on oil prices, particularly post-summer. Saudi Arabia's crude exports notably increased by 475,000 b/d to 6.17 million b/d in June, accounting for 90% of the total month-over-month growth among eight OPEC+ nations. This growth stemmed from inventory draws and increased production, with refinery runs and crude burn in the kingdom estimated to have risen by 140,000 b/d and 75,000 b/d month over month, respectively. Ceasefire does not mean end of conflict A ceasefire in the Middle East does not mean the conflict is over. The fear premium in oil prices can reappear overnight, bringing back uncertainties in the oil market. Israel's military success may have raised the possibility that Iran could ease 46 years of hostilities with the US and Israel, but for now, it's too early to jump to that conclusion. A weakened Iran could become more repressive internally and provocative externally. Much will depend on the internal and opaque political dynamics within Iran. But the impact on the oil market could be profound if trade and investment sanctions against Iran are eased or lifted. In addition, oil markets will closely monitor Washington's recent decision to remove Syria's oil ministry, its two refineries, and maritime authority from its sanctions list, as this could pave the way for the war-torn country's return to the international oil trade. US sanctions on Syria were officially lifted by President Donald Trump on June 30, following earlier moves by the EU and the UK to ease economic curbs on the country. Before the onset of the civil war in 2011, Syria pumped around 380,000-400,000 b/d of crude -- enough to meet its domestic consumption and supply some barrels to the international market. However, Syria's oil and gas fields and infrastructure have been badly damaged and neglected. Syria's crude production has plummeted to approximately 90,000 b/d from 442,000 b/d in 2004, severely limiting export potential until production recovers, according to Commodity Insights data. The removal of sanctions could eventually increase Syrian oil supply to global markets, though significant production increases will take time. Syrian crude grades, which are predominantly medium-heavy sour varieties, could eventually compete with similar Mediterranean grades once production and export infrastructure are restored. Threat of secondary sanctions Adding a layer of uncertainty to the market is the latest statement from Trump who said on July 14 that he would impose 100% secondary sanctions on any country that buys Russian exports if Russia does not reach a peace agreement with Ukraine in the next 50 days. The announcement came amid a bipartisan push in the US Senate to pass the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025. The bill would impose a 500% duty on all goods or services imported into the US from any country that "knowingly sells, supplies, transfers, or purchases oil, uranium, petroleum products, or petrochemical products that originated in the Russian Federation," according to the bill text. To date in 2025, India, China, and Turkey have been the largest purchasers of Russian oil, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea, collectively representing 53% of Russia's total waterborne exports. India has imported an average of 1.69 million b/d of Russian crude and condensates in 2025, while China took an average of 1.09 million b/d and Turkey 377,000 b/d, CAS data showed. Potential 100% US tariffs on China and India would have significant market ramifications and could alter Asian crude oil flows to a large extent. By now, top buyers of Russian crude must have started pondering about their Plan B in the event new US sanctions against Russia come into force. Sambit Mohanty is Asia Energy Analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, leading coverage for Platts Oilgram News for the Asia-Pacific region. Sambit is based in Singapore and has more than 25 years of experience as a senior journalist and editor analysing commodities and energy trends in the region. He holds a Master's Degree in Applied Economics.
Time of India
02-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Global oil surplus seen at 1.2 million b/d in H2 2025; Brent forecast at $50-60/bbl: S&P Global
New Delhi: Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second half of 2025, while annual demand growth is projected to be the weakest since 2001—excluding crisis years—at 870,000 b/d, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights . The energy research firm also forecasts a surplus of 800,000 b/d for the full year 2026, driven by rising output from OPEC+ countries and continued weak demand. 'The underlying fundamentals of the global oil market remain profoundly unchanged. OPEC+ members are continuing with the accelerated unwinding of production cuts. There will be more oil supply coming from the Middle East in July. Meanwhile, global demand growth remains weak. In other words, there is plenty of oil available,' said Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights. According to the report, base case projections for Dated Brent crude oil prices are in the $50–60 per barrel range for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices are expected to range between the upper $40s and upper $50s. S&P Global expects the United States to register its first year-on-year oil production decline in nearly a decade. Total U.S. crude oil and condensate output, including offshore production, is forecast to decline by 600,000 b/d from mid-2025 to end-2026. 'The price of oil and Wall Street remain the de facto regulators of U.S. crude production. The onset of conflict in Iran briefly injected a fear premium into oil prices, and fresh uncertainties do remain. But the fundamentals are the fundamentals, and the oil price trend remains the same—downward,' Burkhard added. OPEC+ countries have begun to visibly increase production in line with plans to accelerate the unwinding of earlier cuts. As of mid-June, Saudi Arabia's crude and condensate exports had increased by nearly 700,000 b/d, reaching levels aligned with its monthly target. The report notes that the Persian Gulf region still holds over 4 million b/d of spare production capacity. It also points to the uncertain possibility of additional Iranian supply coming to market if the ceasefire holds and sanctions are lifted or eased. 'A year or more into the future, could a focal point in the market be how much Iran could increase production rather than attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz or damage oil infrastructure in other countries? Perhaps. In the meantime, expect more oil supply from the Middle East, regardless,' said Ian Stewart, Associate Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Despite the recent conflict and ceasefire between Israel and Iran, S&P Global noted that the trajectory of global oil markets remains unchanged, with supply expected to continue outpacing demand and price trends pointing downward.
