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The Hill
05-07-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Iran nuclear deal without missile limits is a strategic mistake
Did you know that 10,000 ballistic missiles — each carrying one to two tons of explosives — could cause as much, or even more, devastation than a Hiroshima-style atomic bomb? Before Israel's three strikes on Iranian territory — the most consequential in June 2025 — Iran was racing toward mass production of precision-guided ballistic missiles. This wasn't hypothetical. Tehran was preparing to flood Israel's airspace with thousands of advanced rockets designed to overwhelm its multi-layered defense systems: Arrow, David's Sling and Iron Dome. The editor-in-chief of The Times of Israel wrote that it was the sober, unified judgment of Israel's intelligence and military chiefs that led to the preemptive strike. The country wasn't just weeks from a nuclear breakout — it was also on the verge of deploying a missile arsenal with the power to incapacitate Israel's economy, overwhelm its defenses and inflict mass civilian casualties. Former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani once infamously called Israel a 'one-bomb country.' Today, that warning must be updated: Israel is now a '10,000-missile country.' According to veteran Israeli journalist Ron Ben-Yishai, Israeli intelligence concluded that Tehran was preparing to produce 10,000 ballistic missiles with the destructive force equivalent to two nuclear bombs. The hope that Israel's October 2024 strike on Iran's solid-fuel production sites would slow the program proved overly optimistic. Iran responded by accelerating production. Israel's Foreign Ministry later stated that Iran was moving to industrial-scale missile manufacturing. Iran was on track to become the world's leading missile producer, including intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching Europe, with payloads large enough to level city blocks. As one senior Israeli official explained, 'We acted because of two existential threats. One was nuclear …, the other ballistic… That threat was as existential to us as a nuclear bomb.' While much of the world has remained narrowly focused on uranium enrichment, Israeli intelligence had already concluded that Iran's ballistic missile buildup posed an equally urgent and imminent danger. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly cited Iran's missile expansion as a principal reason for the June 2025 operation. Yet global media coverage of the 12-day Iran-Israel conflict largely overlooked the larger strategic rationale for Israel's strikes. Headlines focused on the limited number of Iranian missiles that penetrated Israeli defenses. What was missed was the far more dangerous trajectory Iran was on: building a missile force capable of saturating and bypassing even the most sophisticated defense systems. That is why recent reports that President Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, may be exploring a nuclear-only agreement with Iran — one that excludes any restrictions on missile development — have deeply alarmed Israel's defense and intelligence establishment. Trump has denied offering sanctions relief or cash incentives, but the concern remains that the United States may be entertaining a deal that fails to address Iran's expanding missile threat. This is not a theoretical oversight. Iran has already adapted its military posture following each major clash — April 2024, October 2024 and June 2025 — improving its ability to evade Israeli and U.S. defenses. Unlike the short-range, low-yield rockets launched by proxy groups like Hezbollah or the Houthis, Iran's homegrown missiles are longer-range, heavier and more destructive — designed to reach deep into Israel's urban centers and critical infrastructure, producing the maximum amount of terror on the citizenry. A nuclear-only deal with sanctions relief that ignores Iran's missile program would not be prudent diplomacy. It would be strategic self-deception. Such an agreement would embolden the regime in Tehran, undercut Israeli deterrence, and almost certainly invite further escalation across the region. Regional instability would follow. As Israel National News recently reported, Iran's missile arsenal is dispersed across hardened bunkers, civilian neighborhoods and remote mountain ranges. These missiles are not going to disappear with a handshake. Rolling back this threat requires sustained diplomatic pressure, rigorous inspections, enforceable limits, and consequences for transgressions, something Iran is loath to agree to. Let's hope reports of a flawed nuclear deal leaving out the equally dangerous missile threat are mistaken. However, if they're accurate, Congress and the American people need to understand what is at stake. An effective agreement must shut down all of Iran's escalatory pathways, not just the nuclear one. Failing to address Iran's missile program in negotiations would be a strategic error for the U.S. and an existential risk for our ally, Israel. Eric R. Mandel is the director of the Middle East Political Information Network and senior security editor for the Jerusalem Post's Jerusalem Report.
Express Tribune
05-07-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Iran hit five Israeli bases during 12-day war, radar data reveals
The radar-based findings suggest that six Iranian missiles reached targets in Israel's north, south, and centre, contradicting public claims of minimal damage to military infrastructure. PHOTO: REUTERS Listen to article Iranian missiles struck five Israeli military bases during the recent 12-day war, according to radar data analyzed by researchers at Oregon State University and shared with The Telegraph. The hits — which reportedly include a major air base, an intelligence centre, and a logistics hub — have not been disclosed by Israeli authorities due to strict military censorship. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) declined to confirm the reported strikes but stated: 'What we can say is that all relevant units maintained functional continuity throughout the operation.' The radar-based findings suggest that six Iranian missiles reached targets in Israel's north, south, and centre, contradicting public claims of minimal damage to military infrastructure. In addition to the newly revealed hits, 36 other Iranian projectiles are already known to have caused widespread damage to civilian and industrial areas. Though only 28 people were killed, over 15,000 were left homeless — a testament to the country's civil preparedness and alert systems. The new evidence paints a more complex picture of Israel's air-defence performance. While the IDF and US-backed systems — including Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow, and the US THAAD system — intercepted the majority of incoming missiles, about 16% were breaking through by day seven, The Telegraph's analysis shows. This aligns with an IDF statement citing an overall success rate of 87%. Despite that performance, journalist Raviv Drucker of Channel 13 warned: 'There were a lot of [Iranian] missile hits in IDF bases, in strategic sites that we still don't report about to this day... It created a situation where people don't realise how precise the Iranians were and how much damage they caused in many places.' Iranian officials and media have showcased videos of missiles breaching Israeli defences, often with revolutionary songs and satirical cartoons mocking the Iron Dome. One Iranian official told The Telegraph: 'The main goal of firing [suicide drones] at Israel is always to keep their systems busy... Many don't even get through – they're intercepted – but they still cause confusion.' Maj Gen Ali Fazli, deputy commander-in-chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, claimed on Iranian TV: 'Never before have we been at such a level in terms of military readiness, operational cohesion, and fighter morale.' Israeli military sources countered, estimating that only half of Iran's 400 missile launchers were destroyed, leaving substantial capacity intact. 'We assessed that Iran had approximately 2,000 to 2,500 ballistic missiles at the beginning of this conflict... Their missile stockpile could grow to 8,000 or even 20,000 missiles in the next few years,' said one Israeli official. Maj Gen Fazli responded that much of Iran's arsenal remains untouched: 'We have not yet opened the doors of even one of our missile cities... only about 25 to 30 per cent of existing missile capability has been used.' Researchers from Oregon State say a fuller assessment of the war's impact will be published in two weeks.
Mint
29-06-2025
- Politics
- Mint
Iron dome: How useful is Israel's shield?
America's intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict has not stopped missile exchanges and defence analysts remain agog with how Israel's 'iron dome' has held up as a shield. It hasn't proven foolproof, but Israel claims it has neutralized over 80% of Iran's projectiles. Also Read: Mint Quick Edit | The US blasts in: A forever war in Iran? This dome has three layers. The first, which foiled attacks from Gaza and Lebanon, uses relatively cheap interceptors for short-range volleys. But longer-range Iranian missiles have forced the use of its David's Sling and Arrow systems to intercept cruise and ballistic missile onslaughts with interceptors that cost over $1 million a pop. Also Read: Donald Trump's war dilemma: Should America put boots on the ground in Iran or not? While Iran's fusillades have flagged, rough estimates suggest Israel's shield ran up a nightly ammunition bill that peaked at $300 million. A high strike rate may make this seem worthwhile. Notably, Arrow can stop nukes too. Also Read: Israel-Iran conflict: Echoes of history haunt West Asia Yet, let's not forget why the US shelved its 'Star Wars' plan of the 1980s for a US-wide shield against nukes. While it would've been hugely costly to set up, it could not guarantee that no nuclear warhead would ever get through; no dome could be doom-proof. This drove home the point that, ultimately, peace via diplomacy is a country's only real security.
Time of India
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Israel admits its air defense radars failed to track Iranian missiles a day after blaming faulty sirens
Israel's air defense system on Sunday (June 22) failed to track an Iranian missile barrage which hit Haifa, the country's third-largest city. Taking a complete U-turn from its earlier claim of sirens in Haifa developing an error and not getting activated as the Iranian missiles approached Haifa, the Israel Defense Command on Monday (June 23) admitted that its radar missed to identify the projectile. After a through investigation following an uproar over the missile strike which took place without any warning, the IDF issued a statement. It acknowledged that its radar system suffered a failure and there was no human error involved as the missile landed unannounced. "Last night (Sunday), a joint Home Front Command and IAF examination concluded after examining the impact of a missile in Haifa without an alert during an Iranian missile barrage on Sunday morning. The findings indicate that there was a localized failure in the detection process, and as a result, a missile warhead fell in the Haifa area without an alert. Lessons have been learned from the examination and will be implemented immediately. The IDF continuously learns lessons and, once again, reminds the public that the defense is not hermetic. We emphasize that there was no issue with the Home Front Command's alert system," the IDF stated in a statement on Monday. Also Read: Israel faces massive air defense crunch as Arrow interceptors run low and US stockpiles dwindle The missile flew in unchallenged to punch through the multi-layered Israeli air defense system. As the radars failed to locate and track the missile, the interceptor missiles, too, did not take off to engage the Iranian threat. Live Events The IDF had on Sunday soon after the missile hit blamed its own interceptor missile of causing the damage. The forces has then claimed that Haifa faced no missile threat from Iran as its sirens are triggered by incoming projectiles and not by interceptors. Comprising of the Iron Done, David's Sling , Arrows 2 and 3, as well as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), the IDF air defense system was successful in shooting down over 90 per cent of Iranian missiles in the first few days of the war following its airstrikes on June 13. Also Read: US B-2 bombers flew 37 hours non-stop, covered over 7000 miles to bomb Iran's nuclear sites But as days progressed the interception rate has come down. A senior Israeli intelligence official told American NBC News that with Iranian missile barrage continuing, the IDF system was able to to stop only about 65% of projectiles now. A report by The Washington Post on June 17 claimed that Israel was running low on interceptors and may run out of such missiles in the next 10-12 days. Economic Times WhatsApp channel )
Euronews
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
What is the Kheibar Shekan missile, the latest weapon used by Iran?
The IRGC today announced it had deployed the Kheibar Shekan, Iran's latest long-range solid-fuel ballistic missile, indicating that the attack did not include "all armed capabilities yet", signalling the possibility of future escalation. According to state-run news agency IRNA, the Kheibar Shekan missile belongs to the fourth generation of the Khorramshahr family of ballistic missiles, with a range of 1,450 kilometres. It is considered one of the most prominent technical developments in the Iranian missile system, boasting a high degree of accuracy thanks to a satellite guidance system, in addition to manoeuvrable warheads. The high-explosive warhead weighs about 1,500 kilograms and is up to four metres long. At the same time, the missile has a speed of more than 19,500 km/h outside the atmosphere and nearly 9,800 km/h inside it, making it very difficult to intercept even for advanced defence systems such as Patriot and David's Sling. Sequential development The first version of the missile dates back to 2017, when Tehran unveiled the Khorramshahr-1, which was 13 metres long and 1.5 metres in diameter, at a military parade on the occasion of "Holy Defence Week". The second generation "Khorramshahr-2" appeared in 2019, with guided warheads and a total weight of 20 tonnes, followed by the fourth generation "Khorramshahr-4" in May 2023, without Iran revealing the details of the third generation "Khorramshahr-3". However, military sources confirmed that it exists and has advanced capabilities that have not been disclosed for security reasons. The Kheibar Shekan is characterised by design features that reduce its ability to be monitored or intercepted, most notably the absence of ailerons, which reduces the area of friction and increases its speed and accuracy. The missile relies on a local engine called "Arond", which is integrated inside the fuel tank to reduce length and increase camouflage. It is launched from a mobile platform and can be prepared for launch in under 15 minutes. The missile operates in three operational phases: takeoff and flight, then guiding the warhead with rear engines after separation, and ending with entry into the atmosphere, where the final guidance engines are activated while maintaining a speed of more than Mach 8. Symbolic and ideological significance The Kheibar Shekan missile derives its name from Arabic, meaning "Breaker of Khyber", a reference to the historical battle of Khyber between Muslims and Jews in Arabia. Imam Ali bin Abi Talib played a prominent role in the battle, which gives the name special religious significance among the Shiite community, and reinforces the Iranian narratives couching the conflict with Israel in a "historical and ideological" context. The Kheibar Shekan was previously used in the "Sadiq Promise 1" attacks in April 2024 and "Sadiq Promise 2" in October of the same year, according to Western media reports, reflecting Iran's increasing reliance on this model in its long-range operations.
