Latest news with #DavidColetto
Ottawa Citizen
28-04-2025
- Politics
- Ottawa Citizen
What the polls tell us: Conservatives narrowed the gap, but still trailed Liberals in late polling
Polls don't win elections, voters do. Article content As Canadians head to hockey rinks and community centres to cast ballots Monday, previous predictions and prognostications based on small sample size polling matter little. Article content However, as the two-horse race between the Conservatives and Liberals approached the finish line over the weekend, the final pre-election polling data continued to suggest the latter would emerge victorious. Article content Article content Article content As it did on April 21, their final likely-voter model, which only polls people who've already voted or are almost certainly going to, predicts the Liberal party will garner 41 per cent of the popular vote to the Conservatives' 39 per cent. The NDP and Bloc Québécois are relegated to 10 and six per cent, respectively. Article content There was little change regionally, with the Tories strongest in Alberta and the Prairies, the Liberals from Quebec east, and election night battlegrounds setting up in Ontario and B.C. Those results were similar across almost every poll. Article content While Mark Carney and the Liberals maintain a narrow lead, Abacus CEO David Coletto wrote that a high voter turnout could help Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Article content 'Our model assumes participation in the high-60s to low-70s,' he wrote. 'If we're low — say it pushes well north of 70 per cent — that means more late deciders and infrequent voters, a pool that leans Conservative 39-37 (per cent).' Article content Article content Article content Liason Strategies Article content Article content A final poll of 1,000 voters conducted on Sunday for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada also gave the Liberals a two-point edge, 43 to 41. The NDP came in at seven percent, followed by the Bloc at six. Article content Liaison principal David Valentin said election night viewers should remember that current poll results won't be reflected in early reports from polling stations. Article content
Vancouver Sun
28-04-2025
- Politics
- Vancouver Sun
What the polls tell us: Conservatives narrowed the gap, but still trailed Liberals in late polling
Polls don't win elections, voters do. Article content As Canadians head to hockey rinks and community centres to cast ballots Monday, previous predictions and prognostications based on small sample size polling matter little. Article content However, as the two-horse race between the Conservatives and Liberals approached the finish line over the weekend, the final pre-election polling data continued to suggest the latter would emerge victorious. Article content Article content As it did on April 21, their final likely-voter model, which only polls people who've already voted or are almost certainly going to, predicts the Liberal party will garner 41 per cent of the popular vote to the Conservatives' 39 per cent. The NDP and Bloc Québécois are relegated to 10 and six per cent, respectively. Article content There was little change regionally, with the Tories strongest in Alberta and the Prairies, the Liberals from Quebec east, and election night battlegrounds setting up in Ontario and B.C. Those results were similar across almost every poll. Article content While Mark Carney and the Liberals maintain a narrow lead, Abacus CEO David Coletto wrote that a high voter turnout could help Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Article content 'Our model assumes participation in the high-60s to low-70s,' he wrote. 'If we're low — say it pushes well north of 70 per cent — that means more late deciders and infrequent voters, a pool that leans Conservative 39-37 (per cent).' Article content Article content 🚨Final Abacus Data Poll 🇨🇦 🔴Liberal 41% 🔵Conservative 39% 🟠NDP 10% Full details on our final #cdnpoli poll: — Abacus Data (@abacusdataca) April 28, 2025 Article content Article content A final poll of 1,000 voters conducted on Sunday for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada also gave the Liberals a two-point edge, 43 to 41. The NDP came in at seven percent, followed by the Bloc at six. Article content Liaison principal David Valentin said election night viewers should remember that current poll results won't be reflected in early reports from polling stations. Article content 'Until the western ridings start reporting, the numbers will be skewed. The Conservative vote is heavily concentrated in the west, and we'll need those results to come in before we get a clearer picture of the national popular vote,' he wrote. Article content
Edmonton Journal
28-04-2025
- Politics
- Edmonton Journal
What the polls tell us: Conservatives narrowed the gap, but still trailed Liberals in late polling
Article content Here's a brief round-up of some recent poll data, all released before election day: Abacus Data From Thursday through Sunday, Abacus Data conducted polling of 2,500 Canadians, which it called its 'largest sample of the campaign.' As it did on April 21, their final likely-voter model, which only polls people who've already voted or are almost certainly going to, predicts the Liberal party will garner 41 per cent of the popular vote to the Conservatives' 39 per cent. The NDP and Bloc Québécois are relegated to 10 and six per cent, respectively. There was little change regionally, with the Tories strongest in Alberta and the Prairies, the Liberals from Quebec east, and election night battlegrounds setting up in Ontario and B.C. Those results were similar across almost every poll. While Mark Carney and the Liberals maintain a narrow lead, Abacus CEO David Coletto wrote that a high voter turnout could help Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. 'Our model assumes participation in the high-60s to low-70s,' he wrote. 'If we're low — say it pushes well north of 70 per cent — that means more late deciders and infrequent voters, a pool that leans Conservative 39-37 (per cent).'
Calgary Herald
28-04-2025
- Politics
- Calgary Herald
What the polls tell us: Conservatives narrowed the gap, but still trailed Liberals in late polling
Polls don't win elections, voters do. Article content As Canadians head to hockey rinks and community centres to cast ballots Monday, previous predictions and prognostications based on small sample size polling matter little. Article content However, as the two-horse race between the Conservatives and Liberals approached the finish line over the weekend, the final pre-election polling data continued to suggest the latter would emerge victorious. Article content Article content Article content As it did on April 21, their final likely-voter model, which only polls people who've already voted or are almost certainly going to, predicts the Liberal party will garner 41 per cent of the popular vote to the Conservatives' 39 per cent. The NDP and Bloc Québécois are relegated to 10 and six per cent, respectively. Article content There was little change regionally, with the Tories strongest in Alberta and the Prairies, the Liberals from Quebec east, and election night battlegrounds setting up in Ontario and B.C. Those results were similar across almost every poll. Article content While Mark Carney and the Liberals maintain a narrow lead, Abacus CEO David Coletto wrote that a high voter turnout could help Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Article content 'Our model assumes participation in the high-60s to low-70s,' he wrote. 'If we're low — say it pushes well north of 70 per cent — that means more late deciders and infrequent voters, a pool that leans Conservative 39-37 (per cent).' Article content Article content Article content A final poll of 1,000 voters conducted on Sunday for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada also gave the Liberals a two-point edge, 43 to 41. The NDP came in at seven percent, followed by the Bloc at six. Article content 'Until the western ridings start reporting, the numbers will be skewed. The Conservative vote is heavily concentrated in the west, and we'll need those results to come in before we get a clearer picture of the national popular vote,' he wrote. Article content
National Post
28-04-2025
- Politics
- National Post
WHAT THE POLLS TELL US: Conservatives narrowed the gap, but still trailed Liberals in late polling
Polls don't win elections, voters do. Article content As Canadians head to hockey rinks and community centres to cast ballots Monday, previous predictions and prognostications based on small sample size polling matter little. Article content However, as the two-horse race between the Conservatives and Liberals approached the finish line over the weekend, the final pre-election polling data continued to suggest the latter would emerge victorious. Article content Article content As it did on April 21, their final likely-voter model, which only polls people who've already voted or are almost certainly going to, predicts the Liberal party will garner 41 per cent of the popular vote to the Conservatives' 39 per cent. The NDP and Bloc Québécois are relegated to 10 and six per cent, respectively. There was little change regionally, with the Tories strongest in Alberta and the Prairies, the Liberals from Quebec east, and election night battlegrounds setting up in Ontario and B.C. Those results were similar across almost every poll. Article content While Mark Carney and the Liberals maintain a narrow lead, Abacus CEO David Coletto wrote that a high voter turnout could help Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Article content 'Our model assumes participation in the high-60s to low-70s,' he wrote. 'If we're low — say it pushes well north of 70 per cent — that means more late deciders and infrequent voters, a pool that leans Conservative 39-37 (per cent).' Article content Article content Article content Liason Strategies Article content Article content A final poll of 1,000 voters conducted on Sunday for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada also gave the Liberals a two-point edge, 43 to 41. The NDP came in at seven percent, followed by the Bloc at six. Article content
