Latest news with #DavidDuong
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
XRP, DOGE, SOL Lead Crypto Selloff, But Altcoin Season Still in Play if This Happens
While bitcoin (BTC) slid only modestly, other major cryptocurrencies tumbled over the past few days, sparking doubt of the durability of the so-called altcoin season. XRP (XRP), dogecoin (DOGE) and Solana's SOL (SOL) declined the most among the top 10 cryptos on Friday, slipping around 5% each over the past 24 hours, CoinDesk data shows. From the Wednesday highs, XRP and DOGE plunged around 18%, while SOL was down 12% over the same stretch. The CoinDesk 80 Index, consisting of mid-cap tokens outside of the CoinDesk 20, lost 10% from the weekly peak. Meanwhile, BTC was changing hands around $116,000, a bit more than 3% lower from its mid-week peak of $120,000. Ethereum's ether (ETH) was 4% below its weekly high, supported by steady accumulation by crypto treasury strategy firms. When altcoin season? The sharp sell-off of the past few days came after weeks heavy capital rotation into smaller tokens, fueling talks of a full-blown altcoin season. That period, sometimes dubbed alt season, occurs when riskier, smaller tokens outperform bitcoin, the leading crypto, for a sustained period. CoinGlass' Alcoin Season Index, which measures the altcoin market's outperformance versus BTC on a scale of 0 to 100, cooled off to 41 on Friday from Monday's 59, the strongest reading since the late January speculative frenzy around President Trump's inauguration. Still, the total altcoin market (except stablecoins) saw a rapid appreciation, nearly doubling in value since April, David Duong, head of research at Coinbase, said in a Friday report. For this week's pullback, traders taking on excessive leverage on altcoin bets were to blame, the report pointed out. The Altcoin Open-Interest Dominance metric, which compares the amount of dollars tied up in altcoin derivatives contracts to bitcoin's, soared to 1.6, a level that has preceded previous market shake-outs, the report noted. A decrease in the ratio would suggest a healthy leverage reset for the altcoin market, otherwise more shakeouts are expected, Duong wrote. For an extended altcoin season, investors should keep an eye on the Bitcoin Dominance, which measures BTC's share of the total crypto market capitalization. The metric has broken below the 200-day moving average for the first time since a brief period in January 2025, the report noted. "A sustained move under the 200-DMA could validate the 'alt season' narrative and have historically preceded multi-week stretches of altcoin outperformance (like in 2021)," Duong wrote. However, traders might be better off waiting for more consecutive sessions closing below the level before piling into altcoin bets for a more "prudent positioning," he added.
Yahoo
22-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Solana Takes the Altcoin Rally Baton as ETH, XRP, BTC Stall
With bitcoin (BTC) languishing around $117,000 and ether (ETH) pausing below $3,800 on Monday, it was Solana's (SOL) turn to catch-up with the broadening altcoin rally. SOL advanced nearly 8% over the past 24 hours to just shy of $200 during the session, its strongest price since mid-February and has more than doubled from the April, tariff tantrum lows. The token is also nearing a two-month high in BTC terms, attempting a rebound after a brutal, 50% correction against the largest crypto from the January peak. The rest of the large-cap tokens saw muted actions, with XRP (XRP), Cardano's ADA (ADA) and BNB (BNB) booking modest gains. BTC was down nearly 1% during the same period. As bitcoin has been trading sideways in a tight range for more than a week, altcoins gathered steam booking double-digit advances. "This dynamic suggests that capital rotation is underway, with investors reallocating from BTC into higher-beta assets to capture additional upside," Bitfinex analysts said in a Monday report. This has historically signaled the beginning of altcoin-led phases within broader bull markets, the report added. While Ethereum recently stole the crypto narrative spotlight as the go-to network for stablecoins, tokenization amid institutional and corporate treasury demand, Solana that has been the premier hub for fast-paced memecoin trading lagged initially. Coinbase analysts, lead by head of research David Duong, said both tokens will benefit from the broadening crypto rally as institutional interest driven by U.S. efforts to regulate the sector. "Solana, despite a moderation in its memecoin-driven activity, is demonstrating its capacity for high transaction volumes and exploring new sectors," David Duong, head of research at Coinbase, said a report. "We see both ETH and SOL being supported by institutional interest and their beta to the rest of the crypto complex." Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
19-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Coinbase Institutional Says Several Signs Point To 'Crypto Winter' But Remains Optimistic About H2 2025
Coinbase Institutional has suggested that the cryptocurrency market is at the start of a bearish cycle. Bitcoin and major altcoins have fallen below a key technical level. Coinbase Institutional does not expect the cryptocurrency bear market cycle to last long. Amid declining prices and growing market uncertainty over the past few months, the burning question on the minds of several cryptocurrency market participants has been: Is the bull market cycle over? Coinbase Institutional, the institution-facing arm of the leading U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, is the latest to attempt to answer the question. The answer? Probably, especially in the short term. Don't Miss: 'Scrolling To UBI' — Deloitte's #1 fastest-growing software company allows users to earn money on their phones. Here's what Americans think you need to be considered wealthy. 'Several converging signals may be pointing to the start of a new 'crypto winter,'' Coinbase Institutional Global Head of Research David Duong asserted in a Tuesday note. Crypto winter is an extended bear market phase characterized by falling prices, low volumes, and negative market sentiment. Amid market uncertainty sparked by the U.S.-led trade war, Duong argues that Bitcoin has been trading in bear market territory since late March and altcoins, specifically the top 50 coins per market cap, since the end of February, citing the 200-day moving average. The moving average is a technical indicator traders often rely on to cut through the noise from market fluctuations and identify the underlying trend. The 200DMA, in particular, is widely believed to indicate long-term market trends. If an asset's price is above the indicator, it is considered to be in a bull market and vice versa. Trending: BlackRock is calling 2025 the year of alternative assets. Bitcoin fell below the 200DMA on March 9 and has failed to hold above since. Beyond the 200DMA, Duong highlighted significant declines in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and venture capital funding as further evidence that cryptocurrencies were in a bear market cycle. Specifically, he noted that the total crypto market capitalization, excluding Bitcoin, stood at $950 billion, down 41% from a December 2024 high of $1.6 trillion and 17% year-on-year. At the same time, according to the analyst, venture capital funding in the cryptocurrency space remains over 50% below the levels observed during the height of the 2021-2022 cycle, suggesting reduced fresh capital inflows, especially for altcoins. But Duong remains optimistic that the current cryptocurrency bear market trajectory may not last long. 'We still believe that crypto prices may be able to find their floor in mid-to-late 2Q25 – setting up a better 3Q25,' he to Benzinga about why Coinbase Institutional is anticipating a Q3 market recovery, Duong explained that he expects global liquidity to recover in late Q2, helped by anticipated lower borrowing costs from interest rate reductions. At the same time, he asserted that secular trends like AI were likely to sustain long-term growth. 'Thus, we think it's possible that this quarter may represent the low for crypto prices in 2025 – barring any major paradigm shifts – as tax cuts, deregulation and other stimulative fiscal policies may yet materialize later this year. That would also enable some of positive [sic] crypto regulatory developments to support markets,' he submitted. The positive cryptocurrency regulatory developments referenced by Duong likely refer to the less combative approach regulators have taken to the sector under President Donald Trump and the push to pass pro-cryptocurrency regulation before year-end. Citing similar factors, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently contended that Bitcoin still had the potential to surge to a new price record of $250,000 this year. At the time of writing, however, the asset is struggling to hold above the $85,000 price point. Read Next: With high-demand properties in the Midwest, Bam Capital has delivered 2.46x equity multiples in just over 3 years. No losses. No missed payments. . Deloitte's fastest-growing software company partners with Amazon, Walmart & Target – Image: Shutterstock UNLOCKED: 5 NEW TRADES EVERY WEEK. Click now to get top trade ideas daily, plus unlimited access to cutting-edge tools and strategies to gain an edge in the markets. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? APPLE (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report TESLA (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report This article Coinbase Institutional Says Several Signs Point To 'Crypto Winter' But Remains Optimistic About H2 2025 originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Yahoo
17-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Coinbase Reports 41% Drop in Altcoin Market, Predicts Potential Crypto Rebound by Q3 2025
Coinbase's latest market report paints a mixed picture for the crypto market, showing signs of decline but also potential for recovery later in the year. The report, published on April 15, reveals that the altcoin market cap has dropped by 41%, from $1.6 trillion in December 2024 to about $950 billion by mid-April 2025. This marks a significant contraction, with the market reaching as low as $906.9 billion on April 9. Venture capital funding for crypto projects has also decreased by 50-60% from the highs of 2021-2022, with these factors contributing to a gloomy outlook for the sector. David Duong, Coinbase's global head of research, pointed to these issues, alongside global trade tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty, as factors that may signal the beginning of a new "crypto winter." Duong highlighted that the decrease in investor sentiment and lower venture capital interest in crypto are largely tied to broader macroeconomic pressures, including fiscal tightening and tariffs. However, the report doesn't rule out the possibility of a recovery. Coinbase suggests that the market could stabilize by mid-to-late Q2 2025, paving the way for a potential rebound in Q3. Coinbase's analysis emphasizes that the traditional 20% drop commonly used to define bear markets is less applicable in the current crypto landscape. Instead, they recommend relying on more sophisticated metrics such as risk-adjusted returns and the 200-day moving average to gauge market shifts. Bitcoin's performance has been relatively more stable compared to altcoins. While it has experienced some declines, it has not fallen as steeply as many altcoins. However, according to Coinbase's data, Bitcoin's price recently dipped below its 200-day moving average, a key technical indicator that signals broader market shifts. Additionally, Coinbase's COIN50 index, which tracks the top 50 non-Bitcoin tokens, has also fallen below its 200-day moving average, indicating that weakness may persist across the market. The volatility of newer sectors like meme coins, decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), and artificial intelligence-related tokens is contributing to the overall market instability. Coinbase notes that these sectors have been more affected by price fluctuations, making Bitcoin a less reliable indicator of the overall market direction. Duong stated that as Bitcoin increasingly functions as a "store of value," evaluating the broader crypto market may require new approaches that take into account the growing diversity of the space. While the outlook for the short term remains cautious, Coinbase remains optimistic about the potential for a market recovery later in 2025. The firm advises investors to stay flexible and cautious, as market conditions remain uncertain. However, if global economic factors improve, Coinbase expects a stronger market in the latter half of 2025. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crypto Winter Appears to Have Arrived With Bitcoin, Top 50 Tokens Falling Into Bear Market Territory: Coinbase Institutional
The crypto bull run may have ended, with the market poised for a winter characterized by prolonged losses and stagnation, according to Coinbase's institutional arm. "The 200DMA model on bitcoin does suggest that the token's recent steep decline qualifies this as a bear market cycle starting in late March. But the same exercise performed on the COIN50 index (which includes the top 50 tokens by market capitalization) shows the asset class as a whole has been unequivocally trading in bear market territory since the end of February," David Duong, global head of research at Coinbase Institutional, said in a note published Monday. Bitcoin slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 9 and has since established a foothold below the same in a sign of a long-term bearish shift in momentum. The 200-day SMA is widely tracked to gauge long-term trends, with persistent moves above the same, representing a bull market and vice versa. Duong noted this observation while addressing the challenges of identifying a crypto bear market, where 20% or more corrections are routine. In contrast, a 20% decline is typically used to define bear markets in stock markets. The report argued that the arbitrary 20% often fails to account for a dent in investor sentiment and resulting portfolio adjustments spurred by smaller, more intense sell-offs. "We've seen in the past that sentiment-driven declines can often trigger defensive portfolio adjustments, despite not meeting the arbitrary 20% threshold. In other words, we believe that bear markets fundamentally represent regime shifts in market structure – characterized by deteriorating fundamentals and shrinking liquidity – rather than just their percentage declines," Duong noted. In addition to the 200-day SMA, Duong highlighted bitcoin's risk-adjusted performance measured in standard deviations (z-score) relative to the average performance over the previous 365 days as another effective method for identifying crypto bear markets. "Our [z-score] model indicates that the most recent bull cycle ended in late February. But it has since classified all subsequent activity as "neutral," highlighting its potential lag in rapidly changing market dynamics," Duong said, calling for a defensive stance on risk asses for the time being. The impending winter may be more brutal for alternative cryptocurrencies considering the slowdown in the venture capital (VC) funding. While BTC set new highs early this year, well above the 2021 top of $70K, the bullish trend failed to inspire more risk taking in the VC space, leaving the overall funding 50%-60% below 2021-22 levels. Duong said that the crypto market "may find a floor in mid-to-late 2Q25 – setting up a better 3Q25." Sign in to access your portfolio
