Latest news with #DavidGruen
Sky News AU
3 days ago
- Health
- Sky News AU
ABS to launch monthly CPI in November
ABS Chief Statistician Dr David Gruen has spoken on the Australian Bureau of Statistics launching a monthly CPI survey in November.
Reuters
23-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Australia outlines new complete monthly CPI, in relief for policy makers
SYDNEY, July 23 (Reuters) - Australia's statistician on Wednesday provided more detail on the introduction of a new complete monthly consumer price index that will bring the country in line with its global peers and allow for more timely decisions by policy makers. The new series, which starts on November 26, will be a huge relief to the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has long complained that the current quarterly CPI made it hard to know where inflation was heading in real time. The central bank paused its rate cut cycle this month in large part to await the CPI report for the second quarter due on July 30. If that shows core inflation slowing as expected, markets fully assume the RBA will cut rates again in August. "The transition to a complete, internationally comparable Monthly CPI as Australia's primary measure of headline inflation will provide better information for monetary and fiscal policy decisions that have a direct impact on all Australians," said Australian Statistician David Gruen. The Australian Bureau of Statistics updated its website to include details of the new complete CPI, which will be released on the last Wednesday of every month following the reference month. The exception being the coming November report which will be out on January 7. The new series will replace the current monthly CPI, which only covers some of the prices included in the quarterly release and tends to be volatile. The new CPI and various measures of core inflation, including the closely watched trimmed mean, will go back to April 2024, the point when the ABS increased the frequency of price collection. Previously, only around half of the CPI basket of goods and services was collected monthly. Mock data tables that illustrate the format, structure, and content of the files will be published in September. The ABS will continue to produce a quarterly CPI data series for those needing quarterly figures for indexation, contract or other purposes. The full ABS release can be found at: opens new tab
Yahoo
23-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Australia outlines new complete monthly CPI, in relief for policy makers
SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's statistician on Wednesday provided more detail on the introduction of a new complete monthly consumer price index that will bring the country in line with its global peers and allow for more timely decisions by policy makers. The new series, which starts on November 26, will be a huge relief to the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has long complained that the current quarterly CPI made it hard to know where inflation was heading in real time. The central bank paused its rate cut cycle this month in large part to await the CPI report for the second quarter due on July 30. If that shows core inflation slowing as expected, markets fully assume the RBA will cut rates again in August. "The transition to a complete, internationally comparable Monthly CPI as Australia's primary measure of headline inflation will provide better information for monetary and fiscal policy decisions that have a direct impact on all Australians," said Australian Statistician David Gruen. The Australian Bureau of Statistics updated its website to include details of the new complete CPI, which will be released on the last Wednesday of every month following the reference month. The exception being the coming November report which will be out on January 7. The new series will replace the current monthly CPI, which only covers some of the prices included in the quarterly release and tends to be volatile. The new CPI and various measures of core inflation, including the closely watched trimmed mean, will go back to April 2024, the point when the ABS increased the frequency of price collection. Previously, only around half of the CPI basket of goods and services was collected monthly. Mock data tables that illustrate the format, structure, and content of the files will be published in September. The ABS will continue to produce a quarterly CPI data series for those needing quarterly figures for indexation, contract or other purposes. The full ABS release can be found at: Sign in to access your portfolio
AllAfrica
05-03-2025
- Business
- AllAfrica
Australia's economy has finally turned the corner
Australia's economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years in the December quarter, boosted by an improvement in household spending and stronger exports. The Australian Bureau of Statistics' national accounts report today said the economy grew by 0.6% in the quarter. It attributed this to 'modest growth […] broadly across the economy […] supported by an increase in exports.' Annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the year to December 2024 was 1.3%. That's not especially high in historical terms, but as good as we have seen since late 2022. The long-term average growth for the Australian economy is closer to 2.7%. It is one of the last pieces of major economic data before the next federal election, and will provide some comfort to the Labor government. A further encouraging sign is that GDP per head of population is no longer shrinking. It is tiny, rising a mere 0.1%, but at least it is positive. This follows seven consecutive quarters where the per capita measure declined. Today's report ends what some call a 'per capita recession': when the economy grows slower than population, so in terms of production per person we actually go backwards. Households spent more – on furniture, appliances, clothing, hotels, cafes and restaurants, health care and electricity. Consumption grew by 0.4% – which added to economic growth. Households also saved more – the saving to income ratio grew from 3.6% to 3.8%, the highest in nine quarters. How were households able to save, even while they spent more? The answer is wages are growing even more strongly. Employee compensation increased by 2% across the board, in both the public and private sectors. The compensation figure also reflects a 0.7% increase in hours worked. Other contributors to positive economic growth in the quarter were government spending and exports of goods and services. Agriculture was a strong performer (up 7.3%) due to meat exports to the United States and increased grains production following favourable weather conditions. Nevertheless, GDP does not capture important dimensions of wellbeing. It omits things we value such as unpaid work, and the natural environment. Spending on recovery from a disaster improves GDP; if disaster never happens, the numbers are unaffected. Australian statistician David Gruen outlined the limitations of GDP in a speech he gave in 2010, while still at Treasury. Economists and statisticians alike recognize those limitations. Still, the alternative to GDP growth is a recession: people lose jobs and income, businesses go broke. So overall, this latest release is a positive set of numbers for Australia. The trajectory for economic growth is looking good. The December quarter was an improvement on the September quarter's result of 0.3%, and 0.2% in the June quarter. That September quarter result turned out, as predicted, to be a turning point. We now seem to be on a pathway for continuing growth. The December quarter, remember, came before the Reserve Bank cut interest rates in February. Falling interest rates will benefit not only mortgage holders but also business borrowers. Inflation has fallen to a level that gives optimism on possible future interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, although the rate of inflation is falling, this does not mean prices are coming down. They are merely rising more slowly than before. The inflation number is also an average. Some goods or services have higher than average price rises, others lower. People tend to pay attention to the prices that rise, not those that stay the same or decline. In short, these numbers may not make too much of a difference to the government's election prospects. People will still be worried about the cost of living. If voters pay attention to international politics, they also know our current economic sunshine might not last. US President Donald Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and doubled the tariff on Chinese imports from 10% to 20%. The affected countries are talking about retaliation. Even if the US does not impose tariffs on Australian products (which remains a possibility, but Australian diplomats are lobbying hard to head it off), there is an impact from the US tariffs on China. We rely on China as our major trading partner. If its economy slows, so will ours. China has responded to the threat of tariffs today with a fresh stimulus package. Even more worrying is if the trade wars spread to other countries. Protectionism and insularity harm economies. Spread widely, it can lead to a global recession. Even though the December quarter national accounts show good signs of economic recovery and bode well for the future, international events beyond Australia's control might yet derail our positive prospects. Stephen Bartos is professor of economics, University of Canberra This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
