Latest news with #Davy
Irish Times
23-07-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
We need to confront the reality that the housing shortage can't be solved
There is a throwaway line in a recent Davy report on the economy that concludes that if Ireland's population continues to grow at its current rate, and we want to reach European levels of housing supply we would need to build 122,000 new homes each year until 2030. 'This would be close to a quadrupling of current housing output, which seems unlikely to be feasible,' the author observes rather drily. It is something of a mic drop. The takeaway is that the housing shortage is intractable, and for the foreseeable future we could be condemned to live in some sort of housing purgatory, never to enter affordable housing heaven. Davy's pessimism seems well grounded. The State's current housing target, set out in the revised National Planning Framework published in April, calls for the construction of 50,000 homes a year. It is based on population projections from the State-funded independent think tank, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). The ESRI used the 2022 census data to model future population growth and estimate it will reach 5.53 million by 2027 and 5.67 million in 2030. The Central Statistics Office (CSO), which conducted the census, has its own projections. They estimate that the population will reach between 5.49 million and 5.58 million by 2027 depending on migration and 5.59 million and 5.75 million in 2030. [ The Irish Times view on Ireland's rising population: a landmark moment Opens in new window ] But both official estimates – which it must be remembered underpin the national housing strategy – already seem to have wildly underestimated the impact of migration on population growth. Last month, the CSO released a separate estimate based on people's interactions with the State via services such as social welfare and education. This estimate found that the population had already hit 5.45 million in 2023, some two years before the CSO and ESRI modelling predicted it would happen. Clearly someone is wrong, or, in the case of the CSO, wrong and right. There is little reason to believe that population growth is not continuing to outstrip the CSO and the ESRI's estimates, says Davy's chief economist Kevin Timoney. 'The biggest mistake is to assume population growth will slow,' he says. David McWilliams on how 'big incentives' to build could save Dublin city Listen | 36:51 The last significant wave of migration into Ireland in the 2000s was driven by a combination of cyclical economic factors and the accession of Poland and other central and eastern European states to the European Union. Ireland, unlike other member states, did not impose temporary immigration controls. The current wave, Timoney believes, is more structural than cyclical and is driven by factors such as Brexit, wars and climate change. It will be mostly 'south to north', with migrants drawn by our relative economic wealth compared with their country of origin. There is also the inconvenient truth that we need to attract migrants to underpin economic growth. Davy expects the population to hit 5.9 million by 2030 and to reach European levels of housing provision by that date would be an almost impossible task. [ The people behind the numbers as Ireland's population grows by nearly a third in 20 years Opens in new window ] Timoney believes that building 70,000 houses year is the best that we can hope for, and even that would require a big increase in productivity. The best year on record for house building was in 2006, when 88,500 houses were completed. There were roughly 2,000 building firms operating in the State but the largest only built 1,000 homes. There are far fewer builders now and the sector is dominated by two large home builders who have around 15 per cent of the market. They have the potential to scale up production through greater use of technologies such as off-site manufacturing but much more would be required to hit 70,000 homes a year, including significant investment by the Government into social housing. It is obvious that the gap between the Government target of 50,000 homes and Davy's projected requirement of 120,000 is simply unbridgeable given that we only built 33,000 homes last year. [ Ireland's population outperforms increasingly ageing EU Opens in new window ] The Government has an unpalatable choice. It can stick its head in the sand and cleave to the increasingly dubious prediction that 50,000 houses per year is a both achievable in the short term and sufficient. The alternative is to say that it may have underestimated migration and needs to revise its figures. It's not a good look, but the planning framework did flag the possibility that the numbers may have to be revised to account for higher net immigration. Their problem is that whatever new housing target they produce will stretch credulity even further than the current 50,000. [ David McWilliams: This is what we need to do in Ireland if we want stable, affordable house prices Opens in new window ] The correct but pretty much politically impossible thing to do is to level with the electorate that fixing the problem is going to take far longer than anyone is prepared to admit. And it will probably never be fixed if the definition of fixed is that we achieve European levels of housing provision.
Irish Examiner
22-07-2025
- Business
- Irish Examiner
Davy to focus more investment on European markets amid volatility in US
Despite the fallout from US president Donald Trump's trade war being 'much milder' than expected, Irish wealth management firm Davy still plans to 'bias away' from US markets as high valuations make it 'more vulnerable to correction if the economic picture changes'. In the firm's latest Wealth View report for the third quarter of the year, it noted that US equity markets have rebounded from the turbulence caused by Mr Trump's tariff announcement on April 2 and that Europe has shown strength with markets across the bloc ahead of where they were last year. It attributed the rebound in the US markets to investor confidence that the administration would retreat from policies that disrupt the market, and by optimism surrounding the stimulative effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed recently by the US Congress. The report said that the economic fallout from the trade war has been 'much milder' than expected 'as tariffs have been paused or have yet to make an impact'. 'Unfortunately, the better-than-expected news is mostly factored into equity valuations already, which have recovered rapidly to multi-year highs, led by the US and the tech sector,' the report said. We note that high valuations are not enough to move markets on their own, but they do make a market more vulnerable to correction if the economic picture changes. "For this reason, we maintain our bias away from the US and towards Europe and emerging markets.' Davy said that the eurozone and China are currently doing better than forecasted but the UK remains in a tight spot. The rising value of the euro against the dollar has also been a significant development for investors this year, according to Davy. However, it cautioned that too strong a euro could cause issues for the European Central Bank (ECB). 'A weaker dollar will push up prices in the US just when tariffs may be doing the same. Also, foreign central banks may push back if the exchange rate interferes with their mandates. For example, the ECB has identified €1.20 as a threshold for concern for the euro-dollar exchange rate,' the report said. The report said that while the S&P 500 hit new highs in June, it has delivered negative returns, after accounting for the depreciation of the dollar. In the first half of the year, the European Stoxx 600 index beat the S&P 500 by the biggest margin this century. Chief investment officer at Davy, Donough Kilmurray, said the last six months show the importance of diversification across investment portfolios. 'We are investing through a period of unusually high uncertainty, and all sorts of assets have played a role already this year, from less-favoured equities to alternative strategies to gold, both by adding to returns and by cushioning declines,' he said. 'Given the incumbent in the White House, we intend to stay diversified.' In a bid to protect against this volatility, Davy has made changes to its Strategic Asset Allocation (SSA) which shifts how it manages long-term portfolios. These include reducing equity exposure in cautious and moderate portfolios, increasing allocation to bonds to help protect against market volatility and macroeconomic risks, as well as increasing the use of alternative investments, including hedge fund-style strategies and gold. Read More Irish economy to grow by more than 4% through 2027 despite heightened geopolitical tensions
Arab News
14-07-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Wizz Air to exit Abu Dhabi operations
LONDON: Low-cost carrier Wizz Air said on Monday it was quitting its Abu Dhabi operation after six years to focus on its main European market, citing geopolitical instability and limited market access. Wizz, which originally focused on central and eastern Europe but expanded into Britain, Italy and Austria, said in future it would concentrate on its much more profitable European business. Wizz said the geopolitical instability had led to repeated airspace closures around Abu Dhabi, hitting demand, while the impact of the hot environment in the Middle East had hurt engine efficiency, making it hard to operate its low-cost model. Failure to secure the flying rights for certain routes had also meant it was unable to grow in the region as it had hoped, the airline said. 'They just couldn't make money out of the Middle East,' Davy analyst Stephen Furlong said. Wizz said it will stop local flights from Sept. 1, 2025 and would be contacting customers regarding refunds. 'Supply chain constraints, geopolitical instability, and limited market access have made it increasingly difficult to sustain our original ambitions,' Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi said in a statement. 'While this was a difficult decision, it is the right one given the circumstances,' he added. Wizz Air is in talks with Airbus about scaling back its order for 47 A321XLR, a longer range aircraft, and converting some of them to regular A321 jet. 'We have 47 XLRs on order. We are going to scale that back,' Varadi said. 'We have conversion rights for the majority of that of that aircraft order. So we are talking to the manufacturer.'
Gulf Business
14-07-2025
- Business
- Gulf Business
Wizz Air exits Abu Dhabi, cites instability and limits
Low-cost carrier Wizz Air (WIZZ.L) said on Monday it was quitting its Abu Dhabi operation after six years to focus on its main European market, citing geopolitical instability and limited market access. Wizz, which originally focused on central and eastern Europe but expanded into Britain, Italy and Austria, said in future it would concentrate on its much more profitable European business. Shares in the London-listed airline rose 1.5 per cent in early trading. The stock is down about 62 per cent over the last two years, hit by issues with Pratt & Whitney GTF engines which led to the grounding of some of its aircraft. Wizz said the geopolitical instability had led to repeated airspace closures around Abu Dhabi, hitting demand, while the impact of the hot environment in the Middle East had hurt engine efficiency, making it hard to operate its low-cost model. Failure to secure the flying rights for certain routes had also meant it was unable to grow in the region as it had hoped, the airline said. 'They just couldn't make money out of the Middle East,' Davy analyst Stephen Furlong said. Wizz said it will stop local flights from September 1, 2025 and would be contacting customers regarding refunds. 'Supply chain constraints, geopolitical instability, and limited market access have made it increasingly difficult to sustain our original ambitions,' Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi said in a statement. 'While this was a difficult decision, it is the right one given the circumstances,' he added.
Irish Times
14-07-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Davy seeks measure to support house building in budget
The Government must accelerate house building to meet the need for 93,000 homes every year into the 2030s, stockbroker Davy has urged in a pre-budget submission. It also said infrastructure gaps risk damaging the competitiveness of the Irish economy. Hugh Dooley has the details. Sticking with a similar theme, our columnist John FitzGerald lays out why he thinks Budget 2026 needs to take money out of the Irish economy. In our Your Money Q&A , a widow who is managing her husband's small share portfolio wonders if legacy stock in AIB and Bank of Ireland are worth holding on to. Dominic Coyle offers some guidance. If you'd like to read more about the issues that affect your finances try signing up to On the Money , the weekly newsletter from our personal finance team, which will be issued every Friday to Irish Times subscribers. In Me & My Money , Keelan Higgs, owner/chef at the Michelin-starred restaurant Variety Jones in Dublin, recalls how he invested heavily in a restaurant a few years ago only for it to go on fire in its second week. 'That still stings,' he tells Tony Clayton-Lea. READ MORE Our FT columnist this week is Emma Jacobs who explores the world of 'truthiness' and why people love to buy into a good story, even if it is fake or heavily exaggerated. If you own an electric vehicle but don't have off-street parking, charging it up can be a real problem. In Düsseldorf, Germany they think they've found a solution – a charger that fits neatly into the kerb. Derek Scally reports on this neat invention . Private music college BIMM Music Institute Dublin recorded increased profit of more than €670,000 on revenue of €4.08 million last year, with the vast majority of its income coming from a partnership with Technological University Dublin. Hugh Dooley has the details on a college has has spawned bands such as Fontaines DC and The Murder Capital. Nvidia is the world's first $4 trillion company, leaving Apple – long the king of market milestones – in its wake. Stocktake explains why investors, for now at least, are willing to pay up for Nvidia's market speed over Apple's stability. More than 2,000 pubs have closed since 2005 , with 1,000 further establishments expected to close over the next decade as part of a 'pattern of pub closures', a new report has found. Hugh Dooley has the details. Hugh Dooley reports. Ireland can lead Europe in the next generation of inclusive capitalism, writes Cathal Carroll of venture capital firm VEF in our Opinion piece. If you'd like to read more about the issues that affect your finances try signing up to On the Money , the weekly newsletter from our personal finance team, which will be issued every Friday to Irish Times subscribers.
