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Arab News
3 days ago
- Business
- Arab News
Bosnia-Herzegovina reforms a strategic necessity
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement, a landmark accord that ended the Bosnian War of 1992-1995 and brought a fragile peace to Bosnia-Herzegovina. On this significant occasion, I had the privilege of hosting a panel of experts in Dayton, Ohio — where the agreement was originally signed — that was titled 'Next Steps After Dayton? Getting to Constitutional Reform in BiH,' referring to Bosnia-Herzegovina. The panel, convened by the New Lines Institute, featured distinguished voices including former US Ambassador to Bosnia Michael Murphy; Ensar Eminovic, minister counselor at the Bosnia-Herzegovina Embassy in Washington; Dr. Miomir Zuzul, senior international policy adviser at Arnold & Porter; and Dr. Jasmin Mujanovic, author of the institute's recent report, 'Dayton Plus: A Policymaker's Guide to Constitutional Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina.' Together, we reflected on Dayton's legacy and the urgent need for reform to secure the country's future. The Dayton Agreement was a monumental achievement, halting a devastating conflict that claimed countless lives and displaced millions. It established a complex constitutional framework under Annex IV, dividing Bosnia-Herzegovina into two entities — the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska — alongside the self-governing Brcko District. However, while Dayton brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress. The agreement's rigid ethnic power-sharing mechanisms, designed to balance the interests of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, have fostered dysfunction, discrimination and stagnation. Today, Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitutional regime is a labyrinth of inefficiency. The tripartite presidency, entity vetoes and sectarian electoral rules exclude approximately 400,000 citizens — particularly those identifying as 'Others' (e.g., Jews, Roma or those who reject ethnic labels) — from meaningful political participation. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly struck down provisions of the constitution as discriminatory, a legal obligation the country is bound to address under its own laws, but progress remains stalled. This de facto constitutional crisis undermines Bosnia-Herzegovina's aspirations for EU and NATO membership, a goal that requires rational governance and accountability — outcomes the current system cannot deliver. The demographic reality in Bosnia-Herzegovina underscores the urgent need for reform. Since the 2013 census, which recorded a population of 3.5 million, estimates suggest that number has plummeted to under 2 million due to mass emigration, particularly among the youth. In Republika Srpska, claims of a 1.4 million population may mask a reality closer to 800,000. This exodus reflects a lack of hope in a system that denies citizens a stake in their future, perpetuating corruption and ethnic division over shared prosperity. Mujanovic outlined a clear case for reform. The current constitution promotes irrational governance, incentivizes sectarian maximalism and allows neighboring states to meddle in Bosnia-Herzegovina's affairs, heightening the risk of renewed conflict. Conversely, constitutional reform could foster accountable governance, ensure equal rights for all citizens and pave a credible path for Euro-Atlantic integration by 2040. The benefits are clear: a shift from zero-sum politics to a system that values individual rights over collective ethnic identities, reduces foreign interference and empowers Bosnia-Herzegovina to stand as a sovereign, democratic state. While the Dayton Agreement brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress Dr. Azeem Ibrahim However, the path to reform is fraught with challenges. Political elites, entrenched in the status quo, resist change, fearing a loss of power. The Office of the High Representative, with its expansive Bonn Powers, has intervened in the past — most notably during the 2022 Bosnia-Herzegovina election — but such external impositions are not sustainable. True reform must come from within, supported by international partners like the US and the EU, which have historically expected irrational systems to yield rational outcomes. This flawed premise has led to repeated policy failures in Bosnia-Herzegovina, as our report notes, unless accompanied by sustained international pressure. 'Dayton Plus' proposes a model for limited constitutional reform that balances pragmatism with ambition. It suggests a single, non-ethnically designated president with ceremonial powers, elected through a two-round system to encourage moderate outcomes. Executive authority would shift to the Council of Ministers, with a redefined entity veto mechanism to prevent abuse. Unicameral legislatures at all levels, caucus-based vital national interest protections and electoral reforms like ranked-choice voting aim to dismantle the winner-takes-all mentality. These changes would not overhaul Bosnia-Herzegovina's structure entirely but would normalize constitutional reform as a routine democratic process, building momentum for future progress. Today, that reform is not just necessary — it is achievable. The original Dayton Agreement proved that, with political will, even the most intractable conflicts can be resolved. Today, the task of amending Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitution in line with European Court of Human Rights rulings is far less daunting than ending a war in 1995. What is needed now is the same determination, coupled with imagination, to chart a new course for Bosnia-Herzegovina. As we look to the future, the Euro-Atlantic community must recommit to Bosnia-Herzegovina's stability. The Western Balkans remains a geopolitical flashpoint, with Russia and China exploiting governance weaknesses to sow discord. Constitutional reform in Bosnia-Herzegovina is not just a domestic imperative but a strategic necessity for regional security. By supporting it in this endeavor, the US and the EU can help complete the vision of a Europe whole and free — a vision Dayton began but cannot fulfill without change. The 30th anniversary of Dayton is a moment to celebrate peace, but also to act. Bosnia-Herzegovina's citizens deserve a system that reflects their shared hopes, not their divided past. Let us work together to make that vision a reality. *Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim
The Star
28-05-2025
- Politics
- The Star
Brcko district in BiH declared free of landmines
SARAJEVO, May 28 (Xinhua) -- The Brcko District in northeastern Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has been officially declared free of landmines and explosive remnants of war, local authorities announced on Wednesday. Established in 1999 through international arbitration following the Dayton Agreement, the Brcko District operates as a self-governing administrative unit under the joint sovereignty of BiH's two entities. Designed as a multiethnic model of coexistence, the District holds both strategic and symbolic importance in BiH's post-war governance framework. At a ceremony held in Brcko, Mayor Sinisa Milic announced that the District is the first major region in BiH to achieve full mine clearance. Milic said the newly cleared land will now be repurposed for agriculture, recreation, and economic development. Notably, a former military base in the area is being converted into a free economic zone. Enis Horozovic, director of the BiH Mine Action Center, noted that Brcko had a total of 60.8 square km of mine-contaminated land following the war. Since 1996, various clearance operations have taken place, with 12.88 square km demined in the latest project phase. In April, Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted a new Mine Action Strategy (2025-2027), reaffirming its commitment to achieving a mine-free future for all regions of the country.
The Guardian
28-05-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
‘Most dangerous moment since 1995': renegade Dodik leaves Bosnia in limbo
The members of the elite Hungarian police unit crossed the border in civilian clothes, putting on their uniforms only once they had reached their destination. After arriving in Banja Luka, the capital of the Serbian half of Bosnia and Herzegovina, they posed in green fatigues with balaclava-wearing Serbian police. Officially, the Hungarians had come as trainers, but the mission was announced only after their presence was reported in the local press. The supposedly sovereign Bosnian state government in Sarajevo had not been informed that up to 300 paramilitary police officers from another country would be crossing the frontier. The timing was key: the Hungarians had arrived on the eve of a pivotal, potentially explosive, date. On 26 February, Milorad Dodik, the firebrand president of the Serb-run republic, Republika Srpska, was sentenced to a year in prison and a six-year ban from holding office for separatist actions. Dodik, who has run the entity since 2006, was convicted for having defied the envoy of the international community in Bosnia, a position created to ensure implementation of the Dayton agreement that ended the 1992-1995 war. Technically the supreme power in the country, the high representative has the power to impose or annul laws and sack officials. Responding to the ruling, Dodik told his supporters the conviction was 'nonsense' and called on them to 'be cheerful'. He then said that Bosnia and Herzegovina had 'ceased to exist' and, in an apparent move towards secession, had local laws passed that ban the presence of national law enforcement or judicial officials on Republika Srpska soil. Dodik insisted he would not appeal against the verdict as he did not recognise the court's jurisdiction, but noted he could not stop his lawyers appealing. The lawyers did so and the appeal is due to be heard in the next few months. The verdict and Dodik's response represented a moment when Bosnia's long-term dysfunction tipped into a dangerous crisis, that could split Europe. It showed that in a squeeze, the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, would actively side with Vladimir Putin and allies such as Dodik rather than Brussels. During almost two decades in power, Dodik has been a frequent visitor to Moscow, showing up there on Tuesday for the third time since March. Serbia's authoritarian president, Aleksandar Vučić, also routinely backs Dodik in his standoff with Sarajevo and western capitals. Vučić went to Banja Luka in solidarity, after what he called the court's 'unlawful, anti-democratic' verdict. The two men met again in Belgrade on Monday, as Dodik made his way to Moscow. The ruling and its aftermath also showed that, 30 years after conflict in Bosnia killed more than 100,000 people, its underlying divisions are far from being resolved. Few expect a return to war, but the country remains a flashpoint in the heart of Europe with potential for strife and violence. The war that was ended by the Dayton accords was a horrendous conflict that brought genocide back to the heart of Europe. The accords will be commemorated this week by a Nato meeting in the Ohio city that gave the peace deal its name. But while Dayton stopped the killing, it also simply froze the conflict by splitting the country into two halves: Republika Srpska and a Federation of Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks) and Croats. Dayton's critics denounced it as a reward for ethnic cleansing. The bandage that stemmed the bloodshed has hardened over the decades into a straitjacket that has prevented Bosnia from developing into a functional state. It established a multi-tiered system of governance that favoured nationalist parties, paralysis and corruption. Since coming to power, Dodik, the Republika Srpska president and leader of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, has blocked reforms and European integration with threats of secession and a return to conflict. But there are signs he is growing politically more frail: Bosnian officials and foreign diplomats in Sarajevo confirmed reporting in the Hungarian press that said Orbán's paramilitaries had been in Banja Luka to extract Dodik if he found himself cornered and had to make a run for it. That has not happened yet, but experts say Dodik's departure remains a strong possibility: in the past few months, the Serbian leader's family has approached a senior western official to negotiate terms for his departure, the Guardian has been told.. But it is not a foregone conclusion that Dodik will choose exile. Instead, he may continue to try to defy the sentence – and international community – and cling to office behind a shield of his paramilitary police. For the country itself, the limbo is full of risk. 'It's very clearly the most dangerous moment in Bosnia since 1995,' said Jasmin Mujanović, a Bosnian political analyst. 'It's a crisis that can only end with his arrest or if he opts ultimately to flee.' There was an attempt to detain Dodik in April, after the passage of legislation deemed extreme even by his standards. The Bosnian prosecutor issued arrest warrants for him and two other Serbian officials, and six weeks later there was a tense standoff in east Sarajevo, when Serbian police prevented agents of the Bosnia State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) from arresting Dodik. The SIPA agents withdrew. The appeal judgment on the February verdict is due by the end of the year but it is generally expected by the summer. If it upholds Dodik's conviction and sentence, the ban on holding office would take effect, potentially triggering new presidential elections in Republika Srpska and the possible victory of an opposition coalition prepared to collaborate against ethnic boundaries and revive Bosnia's EU membership bid. It could also mean that another, more determined, attempt may be made to arrest him, and Bosnia could ask the small European peacekeeping force, Eufor, for at least a show of support. 'The only mystery is whether Dodik will accept the ruling and leave his premises in the presidential palace,' said Igor Crnadak, a former Bosnian foreign minister and senior member of the Party of Democratic Progress, part of the Serb opposition bloc. 'Or will he refuse to leave his position? I don't think anybody knows what he will do.' He added: 'I think that Bosnia is at the turning point.' Christian Schmidt, a German former minister serving as the current high representative, insists that, for now, it is a political rather than security crisis. 'How do we solve this kind of challenge without an escalation? I think this is something which needs a lot of diplomacy and talks behind the scenes for the moment,' Schmidt said, but he added: 'I do not see that Mr Dodik meets the requirements for a responsible member of the political leadership in this country.' Last week, Schmidt reported to the UN security council on the worsening situation and appealed for international engagement to forestall a disaster. The signs at the council meeting were not encouraging. The Russian delegation left the chamber while Schmidt was speaking, and the Serbian member currently holding the chair in Bosnia's rotating trilateral presidency, Željka Cvijanović, flew in for the occasion to try to turn the tables on Schmidt, questioning his legitimacy and accusing him of 'dictatorship' and 'repression'. At the EU level, action has also been limited. Hungary has so far blocked sanctions against Dodik, with help from Croatia. The financial pressure on Dodik is mounting, however. The US, UK, Germany, Austria, Poland and Lithuania have all taken individual punitive measures against him. His hope that Trump's restoration to power in Washington would lead to a swift suspension of US sanctions has not been fulfilled; the new administration has little interest in Bosnia. If his appeal fails, Crnadak suggested he follow the same advice Dodik once gave to the Bosnian Serb wartime leaders when they were on the run from the war crimes tribunal in The Hague: give yourself up. 'What you are doing now is directly affecting Serbian people and Republika Srpska,' Crnadak said. 'If you love your people, you will go to the court and fight for your innocence there.'
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NATO PA meeting in US reportedly "distanced" from Russia's war against Ukraine
The NATO Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Dayton has focused much less attention on Russia's war against Ukraine than in previous gatherings over the past three years and the American delegation's attitude towards their Ukrainian counterparts was cooler. Source: Yehor Cherniev, head of Ukraine's permanent delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, as reported by European Pravda Details: Cherniev said that he had a mixed impression of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly session in Dayton, which is coming to an end, and that he had never encountered this before in the last three years. He noted that although there were many references to Ukraine and separate reports, overall the meeting tried to shift the focus from the Russo-Ukrainian war to events 30 years ago – the signing of the Dayton Agreement, which ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Cherniev also said that the meeting with the American delegation was not as warm as usual, which contrasted sharply with the absolute support from the Europeans behind the scenes. "Europeans, incidentally, were also surprised by the emphasis placed on this session of the NATO PA by the host side," said the head of the Ukrainian delegation. Nonetheless, Cherniev stated that the delegation was very satisfied with the final declaration of the NATO PA, which, in particular, rejected the Kremlin's ultimatum that Ukraine could not become a member of the Alliance. "In the end, I can still call this session very successful. The Europeans are categorically on our side, and we will work with the Americans," he concluded. Background: Earlier, it became known that because of US President Donald Trump, NATO is preparing a mini-declaration for the summit in The Hague, likely without mentioning Ukraine. It was also reported that the American side supposedly opposes inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the NATO summit. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied this information. Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!
Euronews
13-05-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
Pope Leo XIV faces expectations to bridge divisions in the Church
European Council President António Costa visited Sarajevo on Tuesday as part of his Balkans tour. He was given a warm reception upon his arrival prior to his meetings with members of the presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In a statement, the European Council chief announced that the EU 'remains committed' to European future of the country. He also praised Željka Cvijanović, Denis Bećirović and Željko Komšić and Borjana Krišto – all members of the presidency – for their role in maintaining stability and security in the country and the region. Recently, tensions have been brewing domestically over the leader of Republika Srpska – Milorad Dodik – actions, which the government has denounced for undermining the country's constitutional order. Western powers and the EU have condemned Dodik for his provocations after he had suggested that the Dayton Agreement, the peace agreement that formally ended the Bosnian War in 1995, have outlived their purpose. In his statement, Costa underlined the importance of the Dayton accords, set to mark its 30th anniversary this year. 'And this year, on the 30th anniversary of Srebrenica genocide and the Dayton/Paris agreement, I believe that it is an important message to remember,' said Costa. Costa also outlined that some reforms are needed to ensure Bosnia remains on the path to EU membership. 'We need the approval of two judiciary laws, the appointment of a chief negotiator, and the adoption of the reform agenda to move towards on the Bosnia and Herzegovina in the European path.' Bosnia and Herzegovina is the only country that does not benefit from the EU's Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. Costa stressed that the implementation of these reforms are of paramount importance to ensure the citizens of Bosnia benefit from the EU plan. ] 'The people of Bosnia and Herzegovina are the only ones in the region who do not benefit from the Growth Plan yet.' 'I would like to see Bosnia and Herzegovina joining the other Western Balkans partners in profiting from all that the European Union has to offer,' noted the Council president. Costa will next travel to Montenegro and Albania on Wednesday where he will meet with President Milatović in Podgorica and President Osmani in Tirana. He'll conclude his tour with a visit to Skopje in North Macedonia where he will be meeting with Prime Minister Mickoski. Although less than a week has passed since Pope Leo XIV was elected at the conclave of cardinals, gathered to elect the next leader of the Catholic Church, much has already been said about the new pontiff and what is expected from his papacy. While he is widely seen as someone capable of uniting a divided Church, he is expected to continue Pope Francis' legacy. However, some conservatives hope the new pontiff will embrace a more traditionalist approach. His relationship with the United States will also be one to watch, especially given that some factions within the American Catholic Church align with US President Donald Trump's policies. 'He is largely unknown — that's the big question," Father Patrick Mary Briscoe, the editor of Our Sunday Visitor, told Euronews. "Some bloggers and others have reacted quite strongly. They're nervous about some of the pope's political views. For example, we've seen tweets responding in particular to Vice President (JD) Vance, so there's a bit of concern from the right side of the political spectrum," Father Briscoe explained. "But overall, we just don't know much - this pope hadn't said a lot before being elected, and we're only just getting to know him. I think it's too early to tell, and we'll see how things go." Some hardliners have even suggested that the new pontiff may end up clashing with Trump on a number of issues. They argue that he doesn't appear to be supportive enough of the US president's MAGA ("Make America Great Again") political agenda. However, others say the supreme pontiff cannot take sides. 'If the pope were too aligned with American politics it would impinge his mission. The pope has to lead the Church and that means leading the universal Church, the whole of the Catholic Church," Father Briscoe said. "So if the pope's main concern were a particular view on American politics, it would harm his mission and role, which is to be (the heir to Saint) Peter.' The Trump administration wants to hear this week how NATO's European member countries and Canada plan to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP, new US envoy Matthew Whitaker has said. Briefing reporters ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Turkey, US Ambassador Matthew Whitaker insisted that "5% is our number. We're asking our allies to invest in their defence like they mean it." "Make no mistake, this ministerial is going to be different,' Whitaker said, adding that "5% is not just a number, it is a necessity for our security. The alliance is facing significant threats." He did elaborate on what those threats were. In 2023, as Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine entered its second year, NATO leaders agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on national defence budgets. So far, 22 of the 32 member countries have done so and leaders will set a new goal at a summit in The Hague on 25 June. Trump, who has cast doubt over whether the US would defend allies that spend too little, insists NATO members should commit to spending at least 5%, but that would require investment at an unprecedented scale. NATO leaders insisted at a summit last year that "Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to Allies' security," but some countries have grown uneasy about Trump's links to President Vladimir Putin. Last week, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said that NATO's chief expects the leaders "to aim for 3.5% hard military spending by 2032," and to "1.5% related spending such as infrastructure, cybersecurity and things like that. Also achievable by 2032." While the two figures do add up to 5%, factoring in infrastructure and cybersecurity would change the basis on which NATO traditionally calculates defence spending. The seven-year time frame is also short by the alliance's usual standards. Asked about his demand, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte did not deny it, but he said: "I'm not going to confirm the figures." He said that "there are many rumours floating around" as envoys discuss the new spending goal. Whitaker appeared to confirm the "defence investment" plan, saying that it "also includes things like mobility, necessary infrastructure, cyber security. It is definitely more than just missiles, tanks and howitzers." "But at the same time, it's got to be defence-related. It's not a grab bag for everything that you could possibly imagine," Whitaker added. It remains difficult to see how many allies might reach even 3.5% of GDP on defence investment. NATO's most recent estimates show that 22 allies would reach the 2% goal last year, compared to a previous forecast of 23. Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Italy, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain would not, although Spain does expect to reach the 2% goal in 2025, a year too late. Even the United States was estimated to have spent 3.19% of GDP in 2024, down from 3.68% a decade ago, when all members vowed to increase spending after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula. It's the only ally whose spending has dropped. Whitaker also said that any European investments in "defence industry capabilities must also include the fair treatment for American defence technology firms." He said that excluding the US and others "would undermine NATO interoperability, slow Europe's rearming, raise costs and stifle innovation." Last month, the European Union announced a new drive to break its security dependency on the United States, with a focus on buying more defence equipment in Europe.
