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Elle
11 hours ago
- Entertainment
- Elle
Here's Who Will Probably Win at the 2025 Tony Awards
As another Broadway season comes to a close, I once again find myself stressing out over one of the hardest tasks I face year after year: Predicting the winners for the Tony Awards. In yet another highly competitive season, the divas were out, the revivals were dazzling, and the new shows brought a refreshing charm. With 14 new musicals, 14 new plays, seven musical revivals, and seven play revivals, this season, in sheer numbers, blew last year out of the water. Standing at the top of the pack for the musicals with 10 nominations each are Buena Vista Social Club , Death Becomes Her , and Maybe Happy Ending ; and leading the plays are The Hills of California and John Proctor Is the Villain . However. But it seems to be anyone's game, as other shows like Dead Outlaw , Sunset Boulevard , and Oh, Mary! have been fan favorites. Below, find my selects for the season. These are based upon my personal opinion (who should win), and who likely will win based on the odds and Broadway chatter. As always, if those choices differ, it's due to my personal taste, and the 'will win' is still wildly deserving. All of these shows have earned their rightful flowers. Jump to Best Musical Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman Helen J. Shen and Darren Criss in Maybe Happy Ending. Nominees : Buena Vista Social Club Dead Outlaw Death Becomes Her Maybe Happy Ending Operation Mincemeat Will Win: Maybe Happy Ending Should Win: Maybe Happy Ending As one of the world's biggest softies, it's unsurprising is my pick for Best Musical. With direction by Michael Arden, the bite-sized one act is a visual feast. There are drones, projections that are actually effective and not gratuitous, strong costumes, and so much more. Darren Criss and Helen J. Shen are also compelling as the two leads, vocalizing in perfect harmony and telling the story of two retired 'helperbots' who are nearing the end of their respective lives. The concept originally seems zany, however the show is everything a new Broadway musical should be. If all is right in the world, Maybe Happy Ending should take home the grand prize. Possible Upset: Dead Outlaw has been well received, has a fascinating plot, and is inventive in its storytelling. It is truly an excellent production, and it could take home this prize as well. Best Play Julieta Cervantes Sadie Sink and Amalia Yoo in John Proctor Is the Villain. Nominees : English The Hills of California John Proctor Is the Villain Oh, Mary! Purpose Will Win: Oh, Mary! Expect Oh, Mary! to say 'Oh, Tony!' on awards night. Should Win: John Proctor is the Villain Personally, John Proctor is the Villain is my favorite show of the Broadway season. From the first Lorde track that plays ('Team' for wondering minds), I was completely enamored. Set in a small, Georgia town during the #MeToo era in 2018, the play examines The Crucible from a new lens, one that does not place John Proctor as the hero he is often portrayed to be. Sadie Sink gives a career-high performance, and the show's message feels relevant, even seven years later. Possible Upset: This is a highly competitive category. The Hills of California stands as one of my early season favorites, and both Purpose and English have strong followings. Best Revival of a Musical Marc Brenner Nicole Scherzinger and Tom Francis in Sunset Boulevard. Nominees : Floyd Collins Gypsy Pirates! The Penzance Musical Sunset Boulevard Will Win: Sunset Boulevard Sunset Boulevard has been a smash this Broadway season, and the Andrew Lloyd Weber musical will likely take home this prize. With direction by Jamie Lloyd and a career-defining performance by Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Boulevard has been pleasing crowds since the fall (even earlier if you count its West End run). That said, it wasn't my personal favorite; while the show has been the talk of the town, I left the theater feeling a little disappointed. Yes, this one will win, but perhaps it just wasn't quite for me. Should Win: Gypsy On the other hand, Gypsy was for me. With incredible performances, it's a Broadway revival at its best. Though it runs long at 2 hours and 40 minutes, Gypsy filled a big musical hole in my heart and had me in the palm of its hand from beginning to end. It's also impossible to mention the show without mentioning Audra McDonald, who is transcendent in the role of Rose. Possible Upset: This race has two horses, an upset seems unlikely. Best Revival of a Play Jeremy Daniel The company of Eureka Day. Nominees : Eureka Day Thornton Wilder's Our Town Romeo + Juliet Yellow Face Will Win: Eureka Day Should Win: Eureka Day Eureka Day has emerged as the deserving frontrunner in this quiet category. With a message about vaccinations at college universities that is unfortunately relevant right now, it has the Tony on lock. Not even Kit Connor's biceps and pull-ups in Romeo + Juliet could challenge this one. Possible Upset: Eureka Day seems to have this category stitched up. Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman Jonathan Groff in Just in Time . Nominees : Darren Criss ( Maybe Happy Ending , Oliver) Andrew Durand ( Dead Outlaw , Elmer McCurdy) Tom Francis ( Sunset Boulevard , Joe Gillis) Jonathan Groff ( Just in Time , Bobby Darin) James Monroe Iglehart ( A Wonderful World , Louis Armstrong) Jeremy Jordan ( Floyd Collins , Floyd Collins) Will Win: Darren Criss Criss will likely finally get his flowers on Tony night for his compelling performance as a retired helperbot named Oliver in Maybe Happy Ending . Tony voters will likely award one of the show's stars, especially after his co-lead Helen J. Shen was somehow snubbed from a nomination. It's looking like Blaine Anderson will get that Tony Award. Should Win: Jonathan Groff Look, was Groff (or the producers) pandering to me when he picked me, out of everyone in the audience, to dance and twirl with at the top of the show? Perhaps. Did it work? Absolutely. Groff stars as Bobby Darin in Just in Time , an excellent musical that didn't receive as many nominations as it should have. Because Groff just won the Tony Award for Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical last year for his performance in Merrily We Roll Along , it seems unlikely he'll win a consecutive award. He is charming, looks amazing in a blue Speedo, and sings his damn heart out. If I were a Tony voter, last year aside, he would get my vote. Possible Upset: Tom Francis demands your attention in Sunset Boulevard as Joe Gillis, and if the tides start turning in that direction on Tony night, Francis could go home with the award. Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical Julieta Cervantes Audra McDonald as Rose in Gypsy . Nominees : Megan Hilty ( Death Becomes Her , Madeline Ashton) Audra McDonald ( Gypsy , Rose) Jasmine Amy Rogers ( Boop! The Musical , Betty Boop) Nicole Scherzinger ( Sunset Boulevard , Norma Desmond) Jennifer Simard ( Death Becomes Her , Helen Sharp) Will Win: Audra McDonald Should Win: Audra McDonald About a week ago, I would have said Scherzinger would be taking home his award for her performance as Norma Desmond in Sunset Boulevard. It seemed as if she had the momentum, however I always believed McDonald gave the more compelling performance in Gypsy . While the race is still close, it seems as if the pendulum has swung for McDonald, especially after she has been a pinnacle of grace following Possible Upset: If Scherzinger and McDonald split the votes, recent Drama Desk winner Jasmine Amy Rogers could rise to the top. Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play Emilio Madrid Cole Escola as Mary Todd Lincoln in Oh, Mary! Nominees : George Clooney ( Good Night, and Good Luck , Edward R. Murrow) Cole Escola ( Oh, Mary! , Mary Todd Lincoln) Jon Michael Hill ( Purpose , Nazareth Jasper) Daniel Dae Kim ( Yellow Face , DHH) Harry Lennix ( Purpose , Solomon Jasper) Louis McCartney ( Stranger Things: The First Shadow , Henry Creel) Will Win: Cole Escola Should Win: Cole Escola Escola is hilarious in Oh, Mary! , and if all is right in the world, they should come home with this their whole body into their portrayal of Mary Todd Lincoln , the actor delivered a kind of performance Broadway has never seen before. We should all thank Escola for making us belly-laugh for the last year. Possible Upset: I won't even entertain an upset here. My stomach couldn't handle it. Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play Marc Brenner Nominees : Laura Donnelly ( The Hills of California , Veronica/Joan) Mia Farrow ( The Roommate , Sharon) LaTanya Richardson Jackson ( Purpose , Claudine Jasper) Sadie Sink ( John Proctor Is the Villain , Shelby Holcomb) Sarah Snook ( The Picture of Dorian Gray , Dorian Gray, et al.) Will Win: Sarah Snook Should Win: Sarah Snook Snook, who comes to the Broadway stage after captivating audiences in Succession , acts with giant, pre-recorded versions of herself in this one-woman-show rendition of The Picture of Dorian Gray . It's an impressive feat, and if she is off by one beat, the whole show could fall apart. (Spoiler: She never is.) Expect Snook to come home with her first Tony Award. Possible Upset: This category seems like a lock for Snook, but I would personally be just as fine with Laura Donnelly or Sadie Sink winning. Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical Julieta Cervantes Jak Malone and Zoë Roberts in Operation Mincemeat . Nominees : Brooks Ashmanskas ( Smash , Nigel Davies) Jeb Brown ( Dead Outlaw , Bandleader/Walter Jarrett) Danny Burstein ( Gypsy , Herbie) Jak Malone ( Operation Mincemeat , Hester Leggatt and Others) Taylor Trensch ( Floyd Collins , Skeets Miller) Will Win: Jak Malone Should Win: Jak Malone Malone has a standout moment as Hester Leggatt in Operation Mincemeat with the song 'Dear Bill.' It stops the show in its tracks, bringing heart to the otherwise humorous story. I never thought I would cry in a British comedy musical about World War II, so Malone, I politely curse you for causing the waterworks. Possible Upset: Danny Burstein is great in Gypsy , and Taylor Trensch is one of the best parts of Floyd Collins . Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical Matthew Murphy Natalie Venetia Belcon in Buena Vista Social Club. Nominees : Natalie Venetia Belcon ( Buena Vista Social Club , Omara Portuondo) Julia Knitel ( Dead Outlaw , Helen McCurdy, Maggie Johnson, Millicent Esper) Gracie Lawrence ( Just in Time , Connie Francis) Justina Machado ( Real Women Have Curves , Carmen Garcia) Joy Woods ( Gypsy , Louise) Will Win: Natalie Venetia Belcon In Buena Vista Social Club , Belcon offers an excellent depiction of singer Omara Portuondo. She drives the story forward in this jukebox musical and she sings her heart out through the show. Known for originating the role of Gary Coleman in Avenue Q , Belcon is back, stronger than ever, and it seems as if she may finally get her first Tony Award. Should Win: Joy Woods At just 25 years old, Woods has already built an impressive resumé. After making her Broadway debut as Catherine Parr in Six , she went viral on TikTok last year with her rendition of ' My Days' from The Notebook , in which she played Middle Allie. She is a powerhouse, and her ability to hold her own and excel next to Broadway's most awarded actor, McDonald, makes her my personal pick for this year. Possible Upset: Julia Knitel covers a lot of ground in Dead Outlaw , and she could be awarded for being a pitch-perfect master of disguise. Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play Julieta Cervantes Gabriel Ebert and the cast of John Proctor Is the Villain. Nominees : Glenn Davis ( Purpose , Solomon 'Junior' Jasper) Gabriel Ebert ( John Proctor Is the Villain , Mr. Carter Smith) Francis Jue ( Yellow Face , HYH, et al.) Bob Odenkirk ( Glengarry Glen Ross , Shelly Levene) Conrad Ricamora ( Oh, Mary! , Mary's Husband) Will Win: Gabriel Ebert Should Win: Gabriel Ebert Fans of Ebert will remember him as originating the role of Mr. Wormwood in Matilda the Musical on Broadway, for which he won the Tony Award for Best Featured Actor in a Musical. Now, in John Proctor Is the Villain , Ebert shows his range as Mr. Smith, who is warm and kind, yet terrifying with a dark past. Ebert's performance is compelling, meaningful, and spot on. He is beyond deserving of this award. Possible Upset: Francis Jue could win for his role in Yellow Face , and Conrad Ricamora could snatch up an award for Oh, Mary! . Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play Jeremy Daniel Jessica Hecht stars in Eureka Day. Nominees : Tala Ashe ( English , Elham) Jessica Hecht ( Eureka Day , Suzanne) Marjan Neshat ( English , Marjan) Fina Strazza ( John Proctor Is the Villain , Beth Powell) Kara Young ( Purpose , Aziza Houston) Will Win: Jessica Hecht With Eureka Day , Hecht racks up her third Tony nomination for her turn as Suzanne, and it's looking like this time, she'll win. A much beloved actress, she will be welcomed in to the winner's circle with open arms. Should Win: Fina Strazza At just 19, Fina Strazza shines in John Proctor Is the Villain as the earnest Beth. She's utterly convincing and often brings levity to the heavy production, and with this Tony nomination, she has a bright future ahead. Possible Upset: Purpose , she could win for a second consecutive year. Best Director of a Musical Matthew Murphy Darren Criss in Maybe Happy Ending. Nominees : Saheem Ali ( Buena Vista Social Club ) Michael Arden ( Maybe Happy Ending ) David Cromer ( Dead Outlaw ) Christopher Gattelli ( Death Becomes Her ) Jamie Lloyd ( Sunset Boulevard ) Will Win: Michael Arden Should Win: Michael Arden Arden's direction in Maybe Happy Ending is beautiful. With a jaw-dropping set, excellent use of space, and incredible character development, Maybe Happy Ending 's success should be much attributed to Arden. This would be Arden's second Tony Award, after winning in 2023 for Parade . Possible Upset: Jamie Lloyd gave new life to Sunset Boulevard , and his highly inventive angle could capture the Tony voters' eyes. Best Director of a Play Emilio Madrid Cole Escola and Conrad Ricamora in Oh, Mary!. Nominees : Knud Adams ( English ) Sam Mendes ( The Hills of California ) Sam Pinkleton ( Oh, Mary! ) Danya Taymor ( John Proctor Is the Villain ) Kip Williams ( The Picture of Dorian Gray ) Will Win: Sam Pinkleton Pinkleton is the perfect director for Oh, Mary! . While he's mostly known for his work as a choreographer, the play is so unbelievably physical that the pairing just makes sense. Escola is bent almost every which way as Mary, meaning the show needed a master of movement. Pinkleton's simple staging is effective and well done, more than enough to win him a Tony Award. Should Win: Sam Mendes While I think Pinkleton's direction is excellent in Oh, Mary! , I found Mendes's work in The Hills of California to be strong. Mendes, known for directing The Lehman Trilogy , The Ferryman , and Cabaret , is a veteran to the Broadway stage, and his use of age, turntables, and staircases in The Hills of California makes a resounding case for a third Tony Award. Possible Upset: Danya Taymor won Best Director of a Musical last year, and this year, she could come home with Best Director of a play. Best Choreography Matthew Murphy The cast of Buena Vista Social Club. Nominees : Joshua Bergasse ( Smash ) Camille A. Brown ( Gypsy ) Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck ( Buena Vista Social Club ) Christopher Gattelli ( Death Becomes Her ) Jerry Mitchell ( Boop! The Musical ) Will Win: Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck's choreography in Buena Vista Social Club soars so high that at my show, the company received a standing ovation following the second act's opener. Their choreography fits the music, is smart, and could win Peck his second consecutive Tony Award in this category. Should Win: Jerry Mitchell At the top of the second act of Boop! The Musical , a perfect match of choreography and costumes makes for one of the best moments in the theater I saw this year, as half the cast is dressed in black and white, and the other half is in full technicolor. Using simple movements to create meaningful visuals is the sign of a strong choreographer, and Mitchell is just that. Possible Upset: We're either Boop in' or at the Buena Vista Social Club come Tony Awards night. Best Book of a Musical Evan Zimmerman Helen J. Shen in Maybe Happy Ending. Nominees : Will Aronson and Hue Park ( Maybe Happy Ending ) David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts ( Operation Mincemeat ) Itamar Moses ( Dead Outlaw ) Marco Pennette ( Death Becomes Her ) Marco Ramirez ( Buena Vista Social Club ) Will Win: Will Aronson and Hue Park Should Win: Will Aronson and Hue Park With one of the most heartwarming stories Broadway has even seen, it should come as no surprise that Aronson and Park are the frontrunners for this honor. They deserve it too, as the entire audience was sobbing by the end of the tight show. Possible Upset: Itamar Moses wrote an excellent book for Dead Outlaw , telling a jaw-dropping story the outlaw Elmer McCurdy with incredible finesse. Best Original Score Written for the Theatre Matthew Murphy Andrew Durand and the company of Dead Outlaw. Nominees : Erik Della Penna and David Yazbek ( Dead Outlaw ) Noel Carey and Julia Mattison ( Death Becomes Her ) Will Aronson and Hue Park ( Maybe Happy Ending ) David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts ( Operation Mincemeat ) Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez ( Real Women Have Curves ) Will Win: Will Aronson and Hue Park Expect Aronson and Park to clean up this year at the Tony Awards, and their lush score for Maybe Happy Ending will likely earn them this award as well. So rarely in the theater do I come out wishing there was a cast album, but I immediately rushed over to Spotify to check. This score immediately enters a list of musical theater staples. Should Win: Erik Della Penna and David Yazbek The music of Dead Outlaw serves as the beating heart of the show, with the band playing live onstage (and interacting with the characters). Della Penna and Yazbek wrote a score not frequently seen on Broadway with its folk and rock leanings, and for that, I believe the two should be awarded with a glittering trophy. Possible Upset: None, give one of these two the crown. The 78th Tony Awards, hosted by Cynthia Erivo, will air on CBS and Paramount+ on June 8. Related Stories
CNN
12 hours ago
- Entertainment
- CNN
‘The saddest, darkest stuff is often the funniest': Composer David Yazbek on ‘Dead Outlaw'
Broadway luminary David Yazbek speaks with Bianna Golodryga about 'Dead Outlaw,' the bizarre-but-true story taking the theater world by storm.
New York Times
4 days ago
- Entertainment
- New York Times
In ‘Dead Outlaw,' Andrew Durand Has the Role of a Lifetime. And After.
An hour before a Wednesday evening show, the actor Andrew Durand clambered up to a platform on the stage of the Longacre Theater and began doing jumping jacks. 'When I walk onstage I never want to feel like I walked in off the street,' he said between jumps. 'I want some sort of elevation physically.' Durand, 39, a Broadway regular, is a first-time Tony nominee this year for his role in 'Dead Outlaw,' a new musical that tells the improbable true story of Elmer McCurdy, a bandit fatally shot by a sheriff's posse in 1911. Because his preserved corpse went unclaimed, McCurdy spent the following decades as a sideshow attraction and an occasional movie extra before ending up as a prop in an amusement-park ride. McCurdy's unusual life and afterlife mean that Durand spends the first 40 minutes of the show leaping on and off tables, climbing up and down ladders, and hanging upside down. He spends the next 40 minutes standing still, barely breathing when the lights are on him. Before each performance, he puts himself through a 30-minute workout to prepare for all that motion, all that stillness. 'I have all this crazy stuff to do in the show,' he said. 'I don't want my body to go into shock.' Durand, who has wavy brown hair, a wide forehead and the jawline of a cartoon superhero, grew up in a churchgoing family in a suburb of Atlanta. He saw his first play at 10, at the local community theater. He returned to act, to paint sets, to sell concession stand popcorn. He loved the openness, the silliness and the reverence he felt there. Eventually he recruited his whole family for the annual production of 'A Christmas Carol.' An arts high school followed, then a theater conservatory, and not long after he graduated Durand was on Broadway in 2008, as a replacement cast member in 'Spring Awakening.' During that show, Durand didn't pay much attention to workouts or warm-ups. 'I think I had some injuries that I didn't notice or deal with,' he said. 'I'm pretty sure I tore a rotator cuff doing some choreography, but we were kids. We were just partying after the show, hanging out, sleeping in.' Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
‘New York audiences like weird': ‘Dead Outlaw' cast and creatives on their ‘freight train' of a musical
'It really feels like the most personal show to me,' reveals David Yazbek about his new musical Dead Outlaw. The composer has written music and lyrics for six Broadway productions and has earned Tony Award nominations for each one, winning for The Band's Visit in 2018. Of his latest effort, Yazbek says, 'The reason why the story of Elmer McCurdy has stuck with me for decades is because it works on a lot of different levels, and the deepest level for me has to do with mortality and desire.' Yazbek and many of the cast and creatives of Dead Outlaw recently sat down with Gold Derby and other journalists at the 2025 Tony Awards Meet the Nominees press event. The darkly comic Dead Outlaw chronicles the life and truly bizarre afterlife of McCurdy, a man born in Maine who moves West and unsuccessfully tries his hand at a life of crime before getting gunned down by a sheriff's posse. McCurdy's body was never claimed at the mortuary, and subsequently traveled around the United States for 60-plus years and displayed in wax museums, sideshows, Hollywood films, and amusement park rides before finally being identified and laid to rest in Oklahoma. More from GoldDerby 'Fallout' gets early Season 3 renewal ahead of Season 2 premiere in December 'Barbershop' TV Series ordered at Prime Video with Jermaine Fowler starring 'Shrinking' acting Emmy submissions include Jason Segel, Harrison Ford, Jessica Williams, and these 4 guest stars The score's cowriter Erik Della Penna, a first-time Tony nominee this year, says that while the score encompasses many different styles of American music, the songs came 'organically.' 'I don't think there was a whole lot of searching going on. … We went pretty deep into the story and deep into the themes of the story based on who we are, where we were born, and at these advanced ages, so a lot of the themes are biologically on the horizon,' describes the musician and lyricist. SEE Julia Knitel describes tackling triple roles in 'Dead Outlaw' and performing 'a perfect musical theater song' in the 'weirdest' show Dead Outlaw reunited much of the Tony-winning creative team behind The Band's Visit, which is one of the most awarded musicals in the honor's history, taking home 10 trophies. Librettist Itamar Moses, who was named a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize for Drama this year for his off-Broadway play The Ally, notes how the process of creating this musical mirrored that earlier work because he, Yazbek, and director David Cromer 'trust one another and have similar tastes.' Even so, he describes how the two musicals could not be more different: 'They're almost exact opposites. The Band's Visit takes place over one night, and Dead Outlaw covers a hundred years. The Band's Visit's all about these quiet, dialogue, spare scenes and people sitting ... and here, we're barreling ahead like a rock concert and like a freight train through all of this time." Andrew Durand, who earned his first Tony nomination for playing the title character, loves the range of the show. 'You get these explosive moments — there are big, exciting, theatrical moments – and then you zero in on these little, intimate, almost play-like moments.' One of those explosive moments is the song 'Killed a Man in Maine,' in which Elmer drunkenly weaves a tall tale about committing a murder, though there is no evidence that the real McCurdy ever did. 'I've really come to love that number, because it used to scare the hell out of me. I would do it and I would blow out all my gas on that number and then I'd have the rest of a show to do. … I've figured out how to incorporate it into the rest of the show.' For Featured Actress nominee Julia Knitel, the Tony Awards embrace of Dead Outlaw echoes what she's finding amongst audiences every night. 'From the time of our first performance, the audiences have really been on board. New York audiences like weird. We forget that it's okay to be different. … It's refreshing to have something that you've never seen before. New York audiences are smart, and I think as soon as they walk in, they realize this is not your typical musical.' Dead Outlaw earned seven Tony Award nominations, the second-most of any musical this year behind Buena Vista Social Club, Death Becomes Her, and Maybe Happy Ending, all at 10. In Gold Derby's current odds, Dead Outlaw ranks in second place for Best Musical and second place for Best Original Score, which would mark Yazbek's second victory. Moses has a commanding lead in the Best Musical Book category, which would be his second victory out of two nominations. Director Cromer and featured actor Jeb Brown both rank third in their respective categories, while Knitel ranks fourth and Durand fifth. SIGN UP for Gold Derby's free newsletter with latest predictions Best of GoldDerby Sadie Sink on her character's 'emotional rage' in 'John Proctor Is the Villain' and her reaction to 'Stranger Things: The First Shadow' 'It should be illegal how much fun I'm having': Lea Salonga on playing Mrs. Lovett and more in 'Stephen Sondheim's Old Friends' 'Death Becomes Her' star Jennifer Simard is ready to be a leading lady: 'I don't feel pressure, I feel joy' Click here to read the full article.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
Latest Tony Awards odds: ‘Maybe Happy Ending' and ‘Oh, Mary!' maintain their leads, Best Actress in a Musical tightens
With less than three weeks until the 78th annual Tony Awards, the Gold Derby odds have shown some movement, reflecting momentum shifts in the race based on industry buzz and following the announcement of the winners of the Outer Critics Circle and Drama League Awards. Although there is little to no overlap between these awards bodies and the pool of Tony voters — these prizes are not precursors akin to the Oscars and their industry and guild prizes — they nevertheless contribute to the perceptions of the races that swirl among insiders. Based on the predictions of more than 700 Gold Derby experts, editors, and users, here is where the top eight races stand. And be sure to scroll to down for a current tally of wins by show in all 26 categories. Our projected winners are denoted in gold. More from GoldDerby 'Sentimental Value' hailed as a 'masterpiece,' the 'best movie' at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival 'The Daily Show' editor Cathy Trasborg on letting Trump supporters 'reveal themselves' in the edit: 'We just let them play out' 'Beast Games' editor Mack Hopkins on the scene that was inspired by 'Dunkirk' 1. — 31/20 2. Dead Outlaw — 9/2 3. Death Becomes Her — 9/2 4. Operation Mincemeat — 7/1 5. Buena Vista Social Club — 7/1 Maybe Happy Ending continues to lead the Best Musical field and has maintained steady odds of winning over the past two weeks, but there has been movement amongst its challengers. Dead Outlaw takes the lead over Death Becomes Her for second place, even though the latter earned more overall nominations and has been gaining momentum according to industry chatter. The shift makes sense in our projections, though, as our users predict Dead Outlaw will win the more important prize of Musical Book, while Death Becomes Her is only slated to pick up the trophy for Costume Design. Operation Mincemeat has now pulled up to even odds with Buena Vista Social Club and inched its way forward to fourth place. The former is expected to win one prize for Featured Actor for Jak Malone, while the latter will likely claim four for Featured Actress for Natalie Venetia Belcon, Orchestrations, Choreography, and Sound Design. 1. — 39/20 2. Purpose — 7/2 3. John Proctor Is the Villain — 37/10 4. The Hills of California — 15/2 5. English — 17/2 As with Maybe Happy Ending in Best Musical, frontrunner Oh, Mary! retains a formidable lead over the competition. But should there be an unexpected upset in this top category, our users now believe Purpose has a better chance at winning than John Proctor Is the Villain. Both dramas had healthy showings in nominations, earning six and seven respectively, though John Proctor has support across numerous categories including Best Direction for Danya Taymor, whereas Purpose only gained recognition for five of its performers. The largest factor swaying more predictions toward Purpose is undoubtedly its recent win for the Pulitzer Prize for Drama. Historically speaking, receiving this highest honor in American letters does not necessarily correlate with winning the Tony — the official statistic is less than half — and Oh, Mary! also received a boost to its prospects as it was cited a finalist for the same prize. 1. — 83/50 2. Gypsy — 27/10 3. Floyd Collins — 4/1 4. Pirates! The Penzance Musical — 11/2 This race also remains steady as director Jamie Lloyd's Sunset Boulevard leads over its closest rival Gypsy. The nominations tipped the scales in its favor as Gypsy missed out on a crucial bid for its director George C. Wolfe, though the revival of the classic Stephen Sondheim, Jule Styne, and Arthur Laurents musical could win support amongst some voters who found this bold production of Andrew Lloyd Webber's Sunset Boulevard polarizing. Even so, Sunset further solidified its frontrunner status with a victory for Musical Revival at the Drama League Awards, besting its three Tonys competitors. 1. — 19/10 2. Eureka Day — 49/20 3. Our Town — 4/1 4. Romeo + Juliet — 9/2 David Henry Hwang's Pulitzer finalist Yellow Face has further solidified its lead in this category, though Jonathan Spector's Eureka Day has a very strong contingent of support. With only one nomination apiece, Our Town and Romeo & Juliet, directed by Tony winners Kenny Leon and Sam Gold, respectively, are not predominant factors in this race for a victory. SEE Tony Talk: Predicting the tricky musical acting categories including Audra McDonald vs. Nicole Scherzinger 1. Audra McDonald, — 11/5 2. Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Boulevard — 53/20 3. Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! The Musical — 11/2 4. Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her — 13/2 5. Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her — 7/1 Though Gold Derby's ranking of the five nominees in this captivating category has not changed, there have been numerous important developments since the nominations were announced. First, Jasmine Amy Rogers prevailed over three of her fellow Tony nominees in the Lead Performer category at the Outer Critics Circle Awards. Subsequently, Nicole Scherzinger won the Distinguished Performance prize at the Drama League Awards, an honor a performer may only win once in their career. Notably, Audra McDonald was not eligible there as she previously took home the award in 2012 for The Gershwins' Porgy and Bess. Although Scherzinger has more overall users predicting her to win, McDonald leads our odds as more experts and editors favor her victory; McDonald has also started to close the gap in the raw total of user predictions, too, as only some three dozen votes now separate her and Scherzinger. Watch our video interview with Boop! The Musical's Jasmine Amy Rogers here. 1. Darren Criss, — 10/3 2. Jonathan Groff, Just in Time — 4/1 3. Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins — 5/1 4. Tom Francis, Sunset Boulevard — 11/2 5. Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw — 13/2 6. James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World — 17/2 Maybe Happy Ending's Darren Criss continues to lead this supersized field and might be the Best Musical frontrunner's biggest prize on Tony night. Although they trail significantly, three challengers are starting to separate themselves from the pack. Jonathan Groff, previously third in our predictions, has been gaining momentum and now ranks second for his charismatic and energetic performance as Bobby Darrin, although no performer in the history of the Tonys has won the Best Actor (Musical) category twice in two years. Jeremy Jordan previously ranked second and now falls to third, but maintains a smattering of backers for his harrowing turn as real-life explorer Floyd Collins. Consistent in fourth place but also with a sizable number of predictions is Tom Francis, who has one of the season's standout moments performing the title number from Sunset Boulevard live on camera in the streets of Manhattan eight times a week. Such a splintered field could either produce a shocking upset or mark a clearer path for Criss to prevail. Read our interview with Sunset Boulevard's Tom Francis here. 1. Sarah Snook, — 8/5 2. LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose — 9/2 3. Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California — 5/1 4. Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villain — 11/2 5. Mia Farrow, The Roommate — 17/2 Snook now has the most commanding lead amongst all four of the top acting races in terms of overall vote tallies. But Gold Derby users have given further thought to who might win if the Succession star shockingly does not prevail. While our earlier predictions favored Laura Donnelly, she has been usurped for second place by LaTanya Richardson Jackson. Although Donnelly received rave reviews and had a more predominant role in The Hills of California than Jackson in Purpose, the switch makes sense as Jackson's play runs throughout the Tony voting period, so voters attending Broadway performances now before casting their ballots will have her more front of mind than Donnelly. A performer from a closed production occasionally wins this top honor, such as Deirdre O'Connell in Dana H. in 2022, but the category typically favors actresses from running shows. That may also give Sadie Sink in John Proctor Is the Villain an advantage, should that play overperform our expectations with a win for Best Play or Best Direction. Watch our video interview with John Proctor Is the Villain's Sadie Sink here. 1. Cole Escola, — 3/1 2. Jon Michael Hill, Purpose — 9/2 3. Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face — 9/2 4. George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck — 11/2 5. Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow — 13/2 6. Harry Lennix, Purpose — 8/1 Snook may now have the biggest lead of all acting contenders, but Cole Escola is not far behind for their hilarious performance in Oh, Mary! The rest of the lineup has not shifted, with Jon Michael Hill, Daniel Dae Kim, and George Clooney receiving small pools of votes. Hill could receive a boost to his prospects on Tony night if voters favored Purpose for the Best Play prize, though it looks incredibly unlikely that they would opt to not support Escola in either the top playwriting or performing categories. Kim could similarly garner votes from folks supporting Yellow Face for Best Revival, though it looks more likely that the show's featured performance, Francis Jue, could prevail than its lead. George Clooney recently announced that Good Night, and Good Luck will live-stream its penultimate performance on CNN, though this effort to democratize access to the best-selling Broadway play in history will not likely yield enough votes to overcome Escola's lead. Read our interview with Stranger Things: The First Shadow's Louis McCartney here. Buena Vista Social Club — 4 Maybe Happy Ending — 4 Sunset Boulevard — 3 Dead Outlaw — 1 Death Becomes Her — 1 Gypsy — 1 Operation Mincemeat — 1 Oh, Mary! — 5 Stranger Things: The First Shadow — 3 Eureka Day — 1 The Picture of Dorian Gray — 1 Yellow Face — 1 See our official odds for our winner predictions in all 26 categories, updated on May 21. The 2025 Tony Awards will take place on Sunday, June 8. SIGN UP for Gold Derby's free newsletter with latest predictions Best of GoldDerby Who Needs a Tony to Reach EGOT? Sadie Sink on her character's 'emotional rage' in 'John Proctor Is the Villain' and her reaction to 'Stranger Things: The First Shadow' 'It should be illegal how much fun I'm having': Lea Salonga on playing Mrs. Lovett and more in 'Stephen Sondheim's Old Friends' Click here to read the full article.
