Here's Who Will Probably Win at the 2025 Tony Awards

Elle

2 days ago

As another Broadway season comes to a close, I once again find myself stressing out over one of the hardest tasks I face year after year: Predicting the winners for the Tony Awards. In yet another highly competitive season, the divas were out, the revivals were dazzling, and the new shows brought a refreshing charm. With 14 new musicals, 14 new plays, seven musical revivals, and seven play revivals, this season, in sheer numbers, blew last year out of the water.
Standing at the top of the pack for the musicals with 10 nominations each are
Buena Vista Social Club
,
Death Becomes Her
, and
Maybe Happy Ending
; and leading the plays are
The Hills of California
and
John Proctor Is the Villain
. However. But it seems to be anyone's game, as other shows like
Dead Outlaw
,
Sunset Boulevard
,
and
Oh, Mary!
have been fan favorites.
Below, find my selects for the season. These are based upon my personal opinion (who
should
win), and who likely will win based on the odds and Broadway chatter. As always, if those choices differ, it's due to my personal taste, and the 'will win' is still wildly deserving. All of these shows have earned their rightful flowers.
Jump to
Best Musical
Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman
Helen J. Shen and Darren Criss in
Maybe Happy Ending.
Nominees
:
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
Will Win:
Maybe Happy Ending
Should Win:
Maybe Happy Ending
As one of the world's biggest softies, it's unsurprising
is my pick for Best Musical. With direction by Michael Arden, the bite-sized one act is a visual feast. There are drones, projections that are actually effective and not gratuitous, strong costumes, and so much more. Darren Criss and Helen J. Shen are also compelling as the two leads, vocalizing in perfect harmony and telling the story of two retired 'helperbots' who are nearing the end of their respective lives. The concept originally seems zany, however the show is everything a new Broadway musical should be. If all is right in the world,
Maybe Happy Ending
should take home the grand prize.
Possible Upset:
Dead Outlaw
has been well received, has a fascinating plot, and is inventive in its storytelling. It is truly an excellent production, and it could take home this prize as well.
Best Play
Julieta Cervantes
Sadie Sink and Amalia Yoo in
John Proctor Is the Villain.
Nominees
:
English
The Hills of California
John Proctor Is the Villain
Oh, Mary!
Purpose
Will Win:
Oh, Mary!
Expect
Oh, Mary!
to say 'Oh, Tony!' on awards night.
Should Win:
John Proctor is the Villain
Personally,
John Proctor is the Villain
is my favorite show of the Broadway season. From the first Lorde track that plays ('Team' for wondering minds), I was completely enamored. Set in a small, Georgia town during the #MeToo era in 2018, the play examines
The Crucible
from a new lens, one that does not place John Proctor as the hero he is often portrayed to be. Sadie Sink gives a career-high performance, and the show's message feels relevant, even seven years later.
Possible Upset:
This is a highly competitive category.
The Hills of California
stands as one of my early season favorites, and both
Purpose
and
English
have strong followings.
Best Revival of a Musical
Marc Brenner
Nicole Scherzinger and Tom Francis in
Sunset Boulevard.
Nominees
:
Floyd Collins
Gypsy
Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Sunset Boulevard
Will Win:
Sunset Boulevard
Sunset Boulevard
has been a smash this Broadway season, and the Andrew Lloyd Weber musical will likely take home this prize. With direction by Jamie Lloyd and a career-defining performance by Nicole Scherzinger,
Sunset Boulevard
has been pleasing
crowds since the fall (even earlier if you count its West End run). That said, it wasn't my personal favorite; while the show has been the talk of the town, I left the theater feeling a little disappointed. Yes, this one will win, but perhaps it just wasn't quite for me.
Should Win:
Gypsy
On the other hand,
Gypsy
was for me. With incredible performances, it's a Broadway revival at its best. Though it runs long at 2 hours and 40 minutes,
Gypsy
filled a big musical hole in my heart and
had me in the palm of its hand from beginning to end. It's also impossible to mention the show without mentioning Audra McDonald, who is transcendent in the role of Rose.
Possible Upset:
This race has two horses, an upset seems unlikely.
Best Revival of a Play
Jeremy Daniel
The company of
Eureka Day.
Nominees
:
Eureka Day
Thornton Wilder's Our Town
Romeo + Juliet
Yellow Face
Will Win:
Eureka Day
Should Win:
Eureka Day
Eureka Day
has emerged as the deserving frontrunner in this quiet category. With a message about vaccinations at college universities that is unfortunately relevant right now, it has the Tony on lock. Not even Kit Connor's biceps and pull-ups in
Romeo + Juliet
could challenge this one.
Possible Upset:
Eureka Day
seems to have this category stitched up.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman
Jonathan Groff in
Just in Time
.
Nominees
:
Darren Criss (
Maybe Happy Ending
, Oliver)
Andrew Durand (
Dead Outlaw
, Elmer McCurdy)
Tom Francis (
Sunset Boulevard
, Joe Gillis)
Jonathan Groff (
Just in Time
, Bobby Darin)
James Monroe Iglehart (
A Wonderful World
, Louis Armstrong)
Jeremy Jordan (
Floyd Collins
, Floyd Collins)
Will Win:
Darren Criss
Criss will likely finally get his flowers on Tony night for his compelling performance as a retired helperbot named Oliver in
Maybe Happy Ending
. Tony voters will likely award one of the show's stars, especially after his co-lead Helen J. Shen was somehow snubbed from a nomination. It's looking like Blaine Anderson will get that Tony Award.
Should Win:
Jonathan Groff
Look, was Groff (or the producers) pandering to me when he picked me, out of everyone in the audience, to dance and twirl with at the top of the show? Perhaps. Did it work? Absolutely. Groff stars as Bobby Darin in
Just in Time
, an excellent musical that didn't receive as many nominations as it should have. Because Groff just won the Tony Award for Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical last year for his performance in
Merrily We Roll Along
, it seems unlikely he'll win a consecutive award. He is charming, looks amazing in a blue Speedo, and sings his damn heart out. If I were a Tony voter, last year aside, he would get my vote.
Possible Upset:
Tom Francis demands your attention in
Sunset Boulevard
as Joe Gillis, and if the tides start turning in that direction on Tony night, Francis could go home with the award.
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Julieta Cervantes
Audra McDonald as Rose in
Gypsy
.
Nominees
:
Megan Hilty (
Death Becomes Her
, Madeline Ashton)
Audra McDonald (
Gypsy
, Rose)
Jasmine Amy Rogers (
Boop! The Musical
, Betty Boop)
Nicole Scherzinger (
Sunset Boulevard
, Norma Desmond)
Jennifer Simard (
Death Becomes Her
, Helen Sharp)
Will Win:
Audra McDonald
Should Win:
Audra McDonald
About a week ago, I would have said Scherzinger would be taking home his award for her performance as Norma Desmond in
Sunset Boulevard.
It seemed as if she had the momentum, however I always believed McDonald gave the more compelling performance in
Gypsy
. While the race is still close, it seems as if the pendulum has swung for McDonald, especially after she has been a pinnacle of grace following
Possible Upset:
If Scherzinger and McDonald split the votes, recent Drama Desk winner Jasmine Amy Rogers could rise to the top.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Emilio Madrid
Cole Escola as Mary Todd Lincoln in
Oh, Mary!
Nominees
:
George Clooney (
Good Night, and Good Luck
, Edward R. Murrow)
Cole Escola (
Oh, Mary!
, Mary Todd Lincoln)
Jon Michael Hill (
Purpose
, Nazareth Jasper)
Daniel Dae Kim (
Yellow Face
, DHH)
Harry Lennix (
Purpose
, Solomon Jasper)
Louis McCartney (
Stranger Things: The First Shadow
, Henry Creel)
Will Win:
Cole Escola
Should Win:
Cole Escola
Escola is hilarious in
Oh, Mary!
, and if all is right in the world, they should come home with this prize.Putting their whole body into their portrayal of Mary Todd Lincoln
, the actor delivered a kind of performance Broadway has never seen before. We should all thank Escola for making us belly-laugh for the last year.
Possible Upset:
I won't even entertain an upset here. My stomach couldn't handle it.
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Marc Brenner
Nominees
:
Laura Donnelly (
The Hills of California
, Veronica/Joan)
Mia Farrow (
The Roommate
, Sharon)
LaTanya Richardson Jackson (
Purpose
, Claudine Jasper)
Sadie Sink (
John Proctor Is the Villain
, Shelby Holcomb)
Sarah Snook (
The Picture of Dorian Gray
, Dorian Gray, et al.)
Will Win:
Sarah Snook
Should Win:
Sarah Snook
Snook, who comes to the Broadway stage after captivating audiences in
Succession
, acts with giant, pre-recorded versions of herself in this one-woman-show rendition of
The Picture of Dorian Gray
. It's an impressive feat, and if she is off by one beat, the whole show could fall apart. (Spoiler: She never is.) Expect Snook to come home with her first Tony Award.
Possible Upset:
This category seems like a lock for Snook, but I would personally be just as fine with Laura Donnelly or Sadie Sink winning.
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Julieta Cervantes
Jak Malone and Zoë Roberts in
Operation Mincemeat
.
Nominees
:
Brooks Ashmanskas (
Smash
, Nigel Davies)
Jeb Brown (
Dead Outlaw
, Bandleader/Walter Jarrett)
Danny Burstein (
Gypsy
, Herbie)
Jak Malone (
Operation Mincemeat
, Hester Leggatt and Others)
Taylor Trensch (
Floyd Collins
, Skeets Miller)
Will Win:
Jak Malone
Should Win:
Jak Malone
Malone has a standout moment as Hester Leggatt in
Operation Mincemeat
with the song 'Dear Bill.' It stops the show in its tracks, bringing heart to the otherwise humorous story. I never thought I would cry in a British comedy musical about World War II, so Malone, I politely curse you for causing the waterworks.
Possible Upset:
Danny Burstein is great in
Gypsy
, and Taylor Trensch is one of the best parts of
Floyd Collins
.
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Matthew Murphy
Natalie Venetia Belcon in
Buena Vista Social Club.
Nominees
:
Natalie Venetia Belcon (
Buena Vista Social Club
, Omara Portuondo)
Julia Knitel (
Dead Outlaw
, Helen McCurdy, Maggie Johnson, Millicent Esper)
Gracie Lawrence (
Just in Time
, Connie Francis)
Justina Machado (
Real Women Have Curves
, Carmen Garcia)
Joy Woods (
Gypsy
, Louise)
Will Win:
Natalie Venetia Belcon
In
Buena Vista Social Club
, Belcon offers an excellent depiction of singer Omara Portuondo. She drives the story forward in this jukebox musical and she sings her heart out through the show. Known for originating the role of Gary Coleman in
Avenue Q
, Belcon is back, stronger than ever, and it seems as if she may finally get her first Tony Award.
Should Win:
Joy Woods
At just 25 years old, Woods has already built an impressive resumé. After making her Broadway debut as Catherine Parr in
Six
,
she went viral on TikTok last year with her rendition of
'
My Days' from
The Notebook
, in which she played Middle Allie. She is a powerhouse, and her ability to hold her own and excel next to Broadway's most awarded actor, McDonald, makes her my personal pick for this year.
Possible Upset:
Julia Knitel covers a lot of ground in
Dead Outlaw
, and she could be awarded for being a pitch-perfect master of disguise.
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Julieta Cervantes
Gabriel Ebert and the cast of
John Proctor Is the Villain.
Nominees
:
Glenn Davis (
Purpose
, Solomon 'Junior' Jasper)
Gabriel Ebert (
John Proctor Is the Villain
, Mr. Carter Smith)
Francis Jue (
Yellow Face
, HYH, et al.)
Bob Odenkirk (
Glengarry Glen Ross
, Shelly Levene)
Conrad Ricamora (
Oh, Mary!
, Mary's Husband)
Will Win:
Gabriel Ebert
Should Win:
Gabriel Ebert
Fans of Ebert will remember him as originating the role of Mr. Wormwood in
Matilda the Musical
on Broadway, for which he won the Tony Award for Best Featured Actor in a Musical. Now, in
John Proctor Is the Villain
, Ebert shows his range as Mr. Smith, who is warm and kind, yet terrifying with a dark past. Ebert's performance is compelling, meaningful, and spot on. He is beyond deserving of this award.
Possible Upset:
Francis Jue could win for his role in
Yellow Face
, and Conrad Ricamora could snatch up an award for
Oh, Mary!
.
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Jeremy Daniel
Jessica Hecht stars in
Eureka Day.
Nominees
:
Tala Ashe (
English
, Elham)
Jessica Hecht (
Eureka Day
, Suzanne)
Marjan Neshat (
English
, Marjan)
Fina Strazza (
John Proctor Is the Villain
, Beth Powell)
Kara Young (
Purpose
, Aziza Houston)
Will Win:
Jessica Hecht
With
Eureka Day
, Hecht racks up her third Tony nomination for her turn as Suzanne, and it's looking like this time, she'll win. A much beloved actress, she will be welcomed in to the winner's circle with open arms.
Should Win:
Fina Strazza
At just 19, Fina Strazza shines in
John Proctor Is the Villain
as the earnest Beth. She's utterly convincing and often brings levity to the heavy production, and with this Tony nomination, she has a bright future ahead.
Possible Upset:
Purpose
, she could win for a second consecutive year.
Best Director of a Musical
Matthew Murphy
Darren Criss in
Maybe Happy Ending.
Nominees
:
Saheem Ali (
Buena Vista Social Club
)
Michael Arden (
Maybe Happy Ending
)
David Cromer (
Dead Outlaw
)
Christopher Gattelli (
Death Becomes Her
)
Jamie Lloyd (
Sunset Boulevard
)
Will Win:
Michael Arden
Should Win:
Michael Arden
Arden's direction in
Maybe Happy Ending
is beautiful. With a jaw-dropping set, excellent use of space, and incredible character development,
Maybe Happy Ending
's success should be much attributed to Arden. This would be Arden's second Tony Award, after winning in 2023 for
Parade
.
Possible Upset:
Jamie Lloyd gave new life to
Sunset Boulevard
, and his highly inventive angle could capture the Tony voters' eyes.
Best Director of a Play
Emilio Madrid
Cole Escola and Conrad Ricamora in
Oh, Mary!.
Nominees
:
Knud Adams (
English
)
Sam Mendes (
The Hills of California
)
Sam Pinkleton (
Oh, Mary!
)
Danya Taymor (
John Proctor Is the Villain
)
Kip Williams (
The Picture of Dorian Gray
)
Will Win:
Sam Pinkleton
Pinkleton is the perfect director for
Oh, Mary!
. While he's mostly known for his work as a choreographer, the play is so unbelievably physical that the pairing just makes sense. Escola is bent almost every which way as Mary, meaning the show needed a master of movement. Pinkleton's simple staging is effective and well done, more than enough to win him a Tony Award.
Should Win:
Sam Mendes
While I think Pinkleton's direction is excellent in
Oh, Mary!
, I found Mendes's work in
The Hills of California
to be strong. Mendes, known for directing
The Lehman Trilogy
,
The Ferryman
, and
Cabaret
, is a veteran to the Broadway stage, and his use of age, turntables, and staircases in
The Hills of California
makes a resounding case for a third Tony Award.
Possible Upset:
Danya Taymor won Best Director of a Musical last year, and this year, she could come home with Best Director of a play.
Best Choreography
Matthew Murphy
The cast of
Buena Vista Social Club.
Nominees
:
Joshua Bergasse (
Smash
)
Camille A. Brown (
Gypsy
)
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck (
Buena Vista Social Club
)
Christopher Gattelli (
Death Becomes Her
)
Jerry Mitchell (
Boop! The Musical
)
Will Win:
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck's choreography in
Buena Vista Social Club
soars so high that at my show, the company received a standing ovation following the second act's opener. Their choreography fits the music, is smart, and could win Peck his second consecutive Tony Award in this category.
Should Win:
Jerry Mitchell
At the top of the second act of
Boop! The Musical
, a perfect match of choreography and costumes makes for one of the best moments in the theater I saw this year, as half the cast is dressed in black and white, and the other half is in full technicolor. Using simple movements to create meaningful visuals is the sign of a strong choreographer, and Mitchell is just that.
Possible Upset:
We're either
Boop
in' or at the
Buena Vista Social Club
come Tony Awards night.
Best Book of a Musical
Evan Zimmerman
Helen J. Shen in
Maybe Happy Ending.
Nominees
:
Will Aronson and Hue Park (
Maybe Happy Ending
)
David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts (
Operation Mincemeat
)
Itamar Moses (
Dead Outlaw
)
Marco Pennette (
Death Becomes Her
)
Marco Ramirez (
Buena Vista Social Club
)
Will Win:
Will Aronson and Hue Park
Should Win:
Will Aronson and Hue Park
With one of the most heartwarming stories Broadway has even seen, it should come as no surprise that Aronson and Park are the frontrunners for this honor. They deserve it too, as the entire audience was sobbing by the end of the tight show.
Possible Upset:
Itamar Moses wrote an excellent book for
Dead Outlaw
, telling a jaw-dropping story the outlaw Elmer McCurdy with incredible finesse.
Best Original Score Written for the Theatre
Matthew Murphy
Andrew Durand and the company of
Dead Outlaw.
Nominees
:
Erik Della Penna and David Yazbek (
Dead Outlaw
)
Noel Carey and Julia Mattison (
Death Becomes Her
)
Will Aronson and Hue Park (
Maybe Happy Ending
)
David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts (
Operation Mincemeat
)
Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez (
Real Women Have Curves
)
Will Win:
Will Aronson and Hue Park
Expect Aronson and Park to clean up this year at the Tony Awards, and their lush score for
Maybe Happy Ending
will likely earn them this award as well. So rarely in the theater do I come out wishing there was a cast album, but I immediately rushed over to Spotify to check. This score immediately enters a list of musical theater staples.
Should Win:
Erik Della Penna and David Yazbek
The music of
Dead Outlaw
serves as the beating heart of the show, with the band playing live onstage (and interacting with the characters). Della Penna and Yazbek wrote a score not frequently seen on Broadway with its folk and rock leanings, and for that, I believe the two should be awarded with a glittering trophy.
Possible Upset:
None, give one of these two the crown.
The 78th Tony Awards,
hosted by Cynthia Erivo, will air on CBS and Paramount+ on June 8.
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