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New York Post
3 days ago
- Entertainment
- New York Post
Tony Award predictions 2025: Audra McDonald vs. Nicole Scherzinger
Here comes a tense Tony's. Last year, many of the major winners were a cinch to predict. This time, well, the bars at Radio City Music Hall will be doing big business. Everybody's freaking out. Producers have been like pollsters the past two weeks, interrogating the 840 Tony voters about who they've chosen. 7 'Maybe Happy Ending,' starring Helen J. Shen and Darren Criss, will win Best Musical. Matthew Murphy & Evan Zimmerman They've also put on their politician hats, hosting more down-to-the-wire cocktail parties than I've ever seen in a single season. 'It's insane,' one insider vented. And it's heated: Audra vs. Nicole; Groff vs. Criss; 'Oh, Mary!' vs. 'Purpose.' For viewers, that's a lot more fun than: 'Hamilton,' 'Hamilton,' 'Hamilton.' As for George Clooney, at least he has his millions and some Oscars to console him when he loses. Here's who I think goes home happy Sunday night. Best Musical: 'Maybe Happy Ending' It's the feel-good story of the year, and I don't mean the South Korean robo rom-com's heartwarming plot. 'Maybe Happy Ending' nearly didn't open on Broadway because of cash problems but, thanks to great reviews and euphoric word of mouth, the show has rebounded big time. Voters adore it. No other musical this season has won any lead-up trophies. And even 'Happy Ending''s glitzier competition — 'Death Becomes Her' and 'Buena Vista Social Club' — aren't exactly the 'Wicked' to its 'Avenue Q.' Definitely happy ending. Best Play: 'Oh, Mary!' There are three shows up for this award that are still running: Cole Escola's Mary Todd Lincoln farce 'Oh, Mary!,' Branden Jacobs-Jenkins' explosive drama about a black political dynasty 'Purpose,' and the high-school MeToo story 'John Proctor is the Villain.' Voters are most vocal about 'Oh, Mary!' and 'Purpose.' What's weird is that the scrappy, strange, downtown show, 'Mary,' is also the commercial juggernaut. With no A-list stars and a unique sense of humor, it regularly outgrosses most musicals. Plus, it's an organic, original hit that began here in New York. Audiences have bombarded it. In recent years, events tend to win. 7 Cole Escola's 'Oh, Mary!' has a great shot to win Best Play. AP A couple of stats. The Drama League has only got this category wrong twice in the past 25 years. They picked 'Oh, Mary!'. 'Purpose' won the Pulitzer, but the last time a Pulitzer winner for Best Play took the Tony was 'Clybourne Park' 14 years ago. Some Broadway insiders find the comedy in 'Oh, Mary!' slight, while others say 'Purpose' is too traditional. I loved both. And both could take it. 'I think 'Proctor' and 'Purpose' split the 'Oh, Mary!'-is-a-skit voters, and 'Oh, Mary!' wins,' said one voter. Best Revival of a Play: 'Eureka Day' 'Eureka Day' was only written in 2018, so it doesn't feel like a revival. It's hilarious Zoom scene sure ain't from 'All My Sons.' 7 'Eureka Day' is in a close race with 'Yellow Face.' Eureka Day But voters liked it a touch more than the older 'Yellow Face.' Best Revival of a Musical: 'Sunset Boulevard' A word about 'Gypsy': Many voters do not care for this production. They cannot stop whining about it. 7 'Sunset Boulevard' will win Best Revival of a Musical. Marc Brenner However, they admire-to-love director Jamie Lloyd's revitalized, reinvented staging of 'Sunset Boulevard,' and it wins handily. Andrew Lloyd Webber snags his first competitive Tony in more than 30 years. Best Actress in a Musical: Nicole Scherzinger, 'Sunset Boulevard' The most exciting Tonys race of the night has been raging for nearly a year, since 'Gypsy' (starring Audra McDonald) and 'Sunset Boulevard' (starring Nicole Scherzinger) began handing out competing merch last summer in the Fire Island Pines: 'Sunset' totes at the pantry, 'Audra Gypsy' cups at the Blue Whale bar. 7 Nicole Scherzinger is in a tight race with Audra McDonald for Best Actress. Marc Brrenner Despite many fantastic reviews for six-time Tony winner McDonald as Rose, the industry itself is more divided on her performance than critics. However, many voters see Scherzinger as a revelation. You can't count Audra out, but smart insiders I've talked to say it's Nicole. Best Actor in a Musical: Darren Criss, 'Maybe Happy Ending' Last year's winner, Jonathan Groff, is exceptional as Bobby Darin in 'Just in Time.' But what gives me pause about his chances is that an actor in a show that's not nominated for Best Musical hasn't won this category since Barry Bostwick in 1977 for 'The Robber Bridegroom.' 7 Darren Criss leads 'Maybe Happy Ending.' Evan Agostini/Invision/AP And a musical performer hasn't won twice in a row since Gwen Verdon. Darin is a flashier part than Criss' android in 'Maybe Happy Ending' — however, many voters will want new blood. Criss by a hair. Best Actor in a Play: Cole Escola, 'Oh, Mary!' How hilarious that, in a year with Oscar winners George Clooney, Denzel Washington, and Robert Downey Jr., the absolutely-no-contest Best Actor winner is Cole Escola for 'Oh, Mary!' Best Actress in a Play: Sarah Snook, 'The Picture of Dorian Gray' Sunday night will be a great success for the 'Succession' actress, who expertly plays 26 roles in 'The Picture of Dorian Gray.' 7 Sarah Snook might win her first Tony Award. Marc Brenner A few other categories: Michael Arden likely edges out Lloyd as Best Director of a Musical for 'Maybe Happy Ending' (there's always some anti-screen people). Sam Pinkleton probably wins Director of a Play for 'Oh, Mary!'. Natalie Venetia Belcon has a lot of support for her Featured Actress in a Musical turn in 'Buena Vista Social Club' And Featured Actor in a Musical goes to Jak Malone for 'Operation Mincemeat.'
Elle
03-06-2025
- Entertainment
- Elle
Here's Who Will Probably Win at the 2025 Tony Awards
As another Broadway season comes to a close, I once again find myself stressing out over one of the hardest tasks I face year after year: Predicting the winners for the Tony Awards. In yet another highly competitive season, the divas were out, the revivals were dazzling, and the new shows brought a refreshing charm. With 14 new musicals, 14 new plays, seven musical revivals, and seven play revivals, this season, in sheer numbers, blew last year out of the water. Standing at the top of the pack for the musicals with 10 nominations each are Buena Vista Social Club , Death Becomes Her , and Maybe Happy Ending ; and leading the plays are The Hills of California and John Proctor Is the Villain . However. But it seems to be anyone's game, as other shows like Dead Outlaw , Sunset Boulevard , and Oh, Mary! have been fan favorites. Below, find my selects for the season. These are based upon my personal opinion (who should win), and who likely will win based on the odds and Broadway chatter. As always, if those choices differ, it's due to my personal taste, and the 'will win' is still wildly deserving. All of these shows have earned their rightful flowers. Jump to Best Musical Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman Helen J. Shen and Darren Criss in Maybe Happy Ending. Nominees : Buena Vista Social Club Dead Outlaw Death Becomes Her Maybe Happy Ending Operation Mincemeat Will Win: Maybe Happy Ending Should Win: Maybe Happy Ending As one of the world's biggest softies, it's unsurprising is my pick for Best Musical. With direction by Michael Arden, the bite-sized one act is a visual feast. There are drones, projections that are actually effective and not gratuitous, strong costumes, and so much more. Darren Criss and Helen J. Shen are also compelling as the two leads, vocalizing in perfect harmony and telling the story of two retired 'helperbots' who are nearing the end of their respective lives. The concept originally seems zany, however the show is everything a new Broadway musical should be. If all is right in the world, Maybe Happy Ending should take home the grand prize. Possible Upset: Dead Outlaw has been well received, has a fascinating plot, and is inventive in its storytelling. It is truly an excellent production, and it could take home this prize as well. Best Play Julieta Cervantes Sadie Sink and Amalia Yoo in John Proctor Is the Villain. Nominees : English The Hills of California John Proctor Is the Villain Oh, Mary! Purpose Will Win: Oh, Mary! Expect Oh, Mary! to say 'Oh, Tony!' on awards night. Should Win: John Proctor is the Villain Personally, John Proctor is the Villain is my favorite show of the Broadway season. From the first Lorde track that plays ('Team' for wondering minds), I was completely enamored. Set in a small, Georgia town during the #MeToo era in 2018, the play examines The Crucible from a new lens, one that does not place John Proctor as the hero he is often portrayed to be. Sadie Sink gives a career-high performance, and the show's message feels relevant, even seven years later. Possible Upset: This is a highly competitive category. The Hills of California stands as one of my early season favorites, and both Purpose and English have strong followings. Best Revival of a Musical Marc Brenner Nicole Scherzinger and Tom Francis in Sunset Boulevard. Nominees : Floyd Collins Gypsy Pirates! The Penzance Musical Sunset Boulevard Will Win: Sunset Boulevard Sunset Boulevard has been a smash this Broadway season, and the Andrew Lloyd Weber musical will likely take home this prize. With direction by Jamie Lloyd and a career-defining performance by Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Boulevard has been pleasing crowds since the fall (even earlier if you count its West End run). That said, it wasn't my personal favorite; while the show has been the talk of the town, I left the theater feeling a little disappointed. Yes, this one will win, but perhaps it just wasn't quite for me. Should Win: Gypsy On the other hand, Gypsy was for me. With incredible performances, it's a Broadway revival at its best. Though it runs long at 2 hours and 40 minutes, Gypsy filled a big musical hole in my heart and had me in the palm of its hand from beginning to end. It's also impossible to mention the show without mentioning Audra McDonald, who is transcendent in the role of Rose. Possible Upset: This race has two horses, an upset seems unlikely. Best Revival of a Play Jeremy Daniel The company of Eureka Day. Nominees : Eureka Day Thornton Wilder's Our Town Romeo + Juliet Yellow Face Will Win: Eureka Day Should Win: Eureka Day Eureka Day has emerged as the deserving frontrunner in this quiet category. With a message about vaccinations at college universities that is unfortunately relevant right now, it has the Tony on lock. Not even Kit Connor's biceps and pull-ups in Romeo + Juliet could challenge this one. Possible Upset: Eureka Day seems to have this category stitched up. Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman Jonathan Groff in Just in Time . Nominees : Darren Criss ( Maybe Happy Ending , Oliver) Andrew Durand ( Dead Outlaw , Elmer McCurdy) Tom Francis ( Sunset Boulevard , Joe Gillis) Jonathan Groff ( Just in Time , Bobby Darin) James Monroe Iglehart ( A Wonderful World , Louis Armstrong) Jeremy Jordan ( Floyd Collins , Floyd Collins) Will Win: Darren Criss Criss will likely finally get his flowers on Tony night for his compelling performance as a retired helperbot named Oliver in Maybe Happy Ending . Tony voters will likely award one of the show's stars, especially after his co-lead Helen J. Shen was somehow snubbed from a nomination. It's looking like Blaine Anderson will get that Tony Award. Should Win: Jonathan Groff Look, was Groff (or the producers) pandering to me when he picked me, out of everyone in the audience, to dance and twirl with at the top of the show? Perhaps. Did it work? Absolutely. Groff stars as Bobby Darin in Just in Time , an excellent musical that didn't receive as many nominations as it should have. Because Groff just won the Tony Award for Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical last year for his performance in Merrily We Roll Along , it seems unlikely he'll win a consecutive award. He is charming, looks amazing in a blue Speedo, and sings his damn heart out. If I were a Tony voter, last year aside, he would get my vote. Possible Upset: Tom Francis demands your attention in Sunset Boulevard as Joe Gillis, and if the tides start turning in that direction on Tony night, Francis could go home with the award. Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical Julieta Cervantes Audra McDonald as Rose in Gypsy . Nominees : Megan Hilty ( Death Becomes Her , Madeline Ashton) Audra McDonald ( Gypsy , Rose) Jasmine Amy Rogers ( Boop! The Musical , Betty Boop) Nicole Scherzinger ( Sunset Boulevard , Norma Desmond) Jennifer Simard ( Death Becomes Her , Helen Sharp) Will Win: Audra McDonald Should Win: Audra McDonald About a week ago, I would have said Scherzinger would be taking home his award for her performance as Norma Desmond in Sunset Boulevard. It seemed as if she had the momentum, however I always believed McDonald gave the more compelling performance in Gypsy . While the race is still close, it seems as if the pendulum has swung for McDonald, especially after she has been a pinnacle of grace following Possible Upset: If Scherzinger and McDonald split the votes, recent Drama Desk winner Jasmine Amy Rogers could rise to the top. Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play Emilio Madrid Cole Escola as Mary Todd Lincoln in Oh, Mary! Nominees : George Clooney ( Good Night, and Good Luck , Edward R. Murrow) Cole Escola ( Oh, Mary! , Mary Todd Lincoln) Jon Michael Hill ( Purpose , Nazareth Jasper) Daniel Dae Kim ( Yellow Face , DHH) Harry Lennix ( Purpose , Solomon Jasper) Louis McCartney ( Stranger Things: The First Shadow , Henry Creel) Will Win: Cole Escola Should Win: Cole Escola Escola is hilarious in Oh, Mary! , and if all is right in the world, they should come home with this their whole body into their portrayal of Mary Todd Lincoln , the actor delivered a kind of performance Broadway has never seen before. We should all thank Escola for making us belly-laugh for the last year. Possible Upset: I won't even entertain an upset here. My stomach couldn't handle it. Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play Marc Brenner Nominees : Laura Donnelly ( The Hills of California , Veronica/Joan) Mia Farrow ( The Roommate , Sharon) LaTanya Richardson Jackson ( Purpose , Claudine Jasper) Sadie Sink ( John Proctor Is the Villain , Shelby Holcomb) Sarah Snook ( The Picture of Dorian Gray , Dorian Gray, et al.) Will Win: Sarah Snook Should Win: Sarah Snook Snook, who comes to the Broadway stage after captivating audiences in Succession , acts with giant, pre-recorded versions of herself in this one-woman-show rendition of The Picture of Dorian Gray . It's an impressive feat, and if she is off by one beat, the whole show could fall apart. (Spoiler: She never is.) Expect Snook to come home with her first Tony Award. Possible Upset: This category seems like a lock for Snook, but I would personally be just as fine with Laura Donnelly or Sadie Sink winning. Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical Julieta Cervantes Jak Malone and Zoë Roberts in Operation Mincemeat . Nominees : Brooks Ashmanskas ( Smash , Nigel Davies) Jeb Brown ( Dead Outlaw , Bandleader/Walter Jarrett) Danny Burstein ( Gypsy , Herbie) Jak Malone ( Operation Mincemeat , Hester Leggatt and Others) Taylor Trensch ( Floyd Collins , Skeets Miller) Will Win: Jak Malone Should Win: Jak Malone Malone has a standout moment as Hester Leggatt in Operation Mincemeat with the song 'Dear Bill.' It stops the show in its tracks, bringing heart to the otherwise humorous story. I never thought I would cry in a British comedy musical about World War II, so Malone, I politely curse you for causing the waterworks. Possible Upset: Danny Burstein is great in Gypsy , and Taylor Trensch is one of the best parts of Floyd Collins . Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical Matthew Murphy Natalie Venetia Belcon in Buena Vista Social Club. Nominees : Natalie Venetia Belcon ( Buena Vista Social Club , Omara Portuondo) Julia Knitel ( Dead Outlaw , Helen McCurdy, Maggie Johnson, Millicent Esper) Gracie Lawrence ( Just in Time , Connie Francis) Justina Machado ( Real Women Have Curves , Carmen Garcia) Joy Woods ( Gypsy , Louise) Will Win: Natalie Venetia Belcon In Buena Vista Social Club , Belcon offers an excellent depiction of singer Omara Portuondo. She drives the story forward in this jukebox musical and she sings her heart out through the show. Known for originating the role of Gary Coleman in Avenue Q , Belcon is back, stronger than ever, and it seems as if she may finally get her first Tony Award. Should Win: Joy Woods At just 25 years old, Woods has already built an impressive resumé. After making her Broadway debut as Catherine Parr in Six , she went viral on TikTok last year with her rendition of ' My Days' from The Notebook , in which she played Middle Allie. She is a powerhouse, and her ability to hold her own and excel next to Broadway's most awarded actor, McDonald, makes her my personal pick for this year. Possible Upset: Julia Knitel covers a lot of ground in Dead Outlaw , and she could be awarded for being a pitch-perfect master of disguise. Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play Julieta Cervantes Gabriel Ebert and the cast of John Proctor Is the Villain. Nominees : Glenn Davis ( Purpose , Solomon 'Junior' Jasper) Gabriel Ebert ( John Proctor Is the Villain , Mr. Carter Smith) Francis Jue ( Yellow Face , HYH, et al.) Bob Odenkirk ( Glengarry Glen Ross , Shelly Levene) Conrad Ricamora ( Oh, Mary! , Mary's Husband) Will Win: Gabriel Ebert Should Win: Gabriel Ebert Fans of Ebert will remember him as originating the role of Mr. Wormwood in Matilda the Musical on Broadway, for which he won the Tony Award for Best Featured Actor in a Musical. Now, in John Proctor Is the Villain , Ebert shows his range as Mr. Smith, who is warm and kind, yet terrifying with a dark past. Ebert's performance is compelling, meaningful, and spot on. He is beyond deserving of this award. Possible Upset: Francis Jue could win for his role in Yellow Face , and Conrad Ricamora could snatch up an award for Oh, Mary! . Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play Jeremy Daniel Jessica Hecht stars in Eureka Day. Nominees : Tala Ashe ( English , Elham) Jessica Hecht ( Eureka Day , Suzanne) Marjan Neshat ( English , Marjan) Fina Strazza ( John Proctor Is the Villain , Beth Powell) Kara Young ( Purpose , Aziza Houston) Will Win: Jessica Hecht With Eureka Day , Hecht racks up her third Tony nomination for her turn as Suzanne, and it's looking like this time, she'll win. A much beloved actress, she will be welcomed in to the winner's circle with open arms. Should Win: Fina Strazza At just 19, Fina Strazza shines in John Proctor Is the Villain as the earnest Beth. She's utterly convincing and often brings levity to the heavy production, and with this Tony nomination, she has a bright future ahead. Possible Upset: Purpose , she could win for a second consecutive year. Best Director of a Musical Matthew Murphy Darren Criss in Maybe Happy Ending. Nominees : Saheem Ali ( Buena Vista Social Club ) Michael Arden ( Maybe Happy Ending ) David Cromer ( Dead Outlaw ) Christopher Gattelli ( Death Becomes Her ) Jamie Lloyd ( Sunset Boulevard ) Will Win: Michael Arden Should Win: Michael Arden Arden's direction in Maybe Happy Ending is beautiful. With a jaw-dropping set, excellent use of space, and incredible character development, Maybe Happy Ending 's success should be much attributed to Arden. This would be Arden's second Tony Award, after winning in 2023 for Parade . Possible Upset: Jamie Lloyd gave new life to Sunset Boulevard , and his highly inventive angle could capture the Tony voters' eyes. Best Director of a Play Emilio Madrid Cole Escola and Conrad Ricamora in Oh, Mary!. Nominees : Knud Adams ( English ) Sam Mendes ( The Hills of California ) Sam Pinkleton ( Oh, Mary! ) Danya Taymor ( John Proctor Is the Villain ) Kip Williams ( The Picture of Dorian Gray ) Will Win: Sam Pinkleton Pinkleton is the perfect director for Oh, Mary! . While he's mostly known for his work as a choreographer, the play is so unbelievably physical that the pairing just makes sense. Escola is bent almost every which way as Mary, meaning the show needed a master of movement. Pinkleton's simple staging is effective and well done, more than enough to win him a Tony Award. Should Win: Sam Mendes While I think Pinkleton's direction is excellent in Oh, Mary! , I found Mendes's work in The Hills of California to be strong. Mendes, known for directing The Lehman Trilogy , The Ferryman , and Cabaret , is a veteran to the Broadway stage, and his use of age, turntables, and staircases in The Hills of California makes a resounding case for a third Tony Award. Possible Upset: Danya Taymor won Best Director of a Musical last year, and this year, she could come home with Best Director of a play. Best Choreography Matthew Murphy The cast of Buena Vista Social Club. Nominees : Joshua Bergasse ( Smash ) Camille A. Brown ( Gypsy ) Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck ( Buena Vista Social Club ) Christopher Gattelli ( Death Becomes Her ) Jerry Mitchell ( Boop! The Musical ) Will Win: Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck's choreography in Buena Vista Social Club soars so high that at my show, the company received a standing ovation following the second act's opener. Their choreography fits the music, is smart, and could win Peck his second consecutive Tony Award in this category. Should Win: Jerry Mitchell At the top of the second act of Boop! The Musical , a perfect match of choreography and costumes makes for one of the best moments in the theater I saw this year, as half the cast is dressed in black and white, and the other half is in full technicolor. Using simple movements to create meaningful visuals is the sign of a strong choreographer, and Mitchell is just that. Possible Upset: We're either Boop in' or at the Buena Vista Social Club come Tony Awards night. Best Book of a Musical Evan Zimmerman Helen J. Shen in Maybe Happy Ending. Nominees : Will Aronson and Hue Park ( Maybe Happy Ending ) David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts ( Operation Mincemeat ) Itamar Moses ( Dead Outlaw ) Marco Pennette ( Death Becomes Her ) Marco Ramirez ( Buena Vista Social Club ) Will Win: Will Aronson and Hue Park Should Win: Will Aronson and Hue Park With one of the most heartwarming stories Broadway has even seen, it should come as no surprise that Aronson and Park are the frontrunners for this honor. They deserve it too, as the entire audience was sobbing by the end of the tight show. Possible Upset: Itamar Moses wrote an excellent book for Dead Outlaw , telling a jaw-dropping story the outlaw Elmer McCurdy with incredible finesse. Best Original Score Written for the Theatre Matthew Murphy Andrew Durand and the company of Dead Outlaw. Nominees : Erik Della Penna and David Yazbek ( Dead Outlaw ) Noel Carey and Julia Mattison ( Death Becomes Her ) Will Aronson and Hue Park ( Maybe Happy Ending ) David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts ( Operation Mincemeat ) Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez ( Real Women Have Curves ) Will Win: Will Aronson and Hue Park Expect Aronson and Park to clean up this year at the Tony Awards, and their lush score for Maybe Happy Ending will likely earn them this award as well. So rarely in the theater do I come out wishing there was a cast album, but I immediately rushed over to Spotify to check. This score immediately enters a list of musical theater staples. Should Win: Erik Della Penna and David Yazbek The music of Dead Outlaw serves as the beating heart of the show, with the band playing live onstage (and interacting with the characters). Della Penna and Yazbek wrote a score not frequently seen on Broadway with its folk and rock leanings, and for that, I believe the two should be awarded with a glittering trophy. Possible Upset: None, give one of these two the crown. The 78th Tony Awards, hosted by Cynthia Erivo, will air on CBS and Paramount+ on June 8. Related Stories
