Latest news with #DeanMikkelsen
The National
2 days ago
- Business
- The National
Israel-Iran conflict delivers double hit to airlines on security fears and fuel costs
Israel's attack on Iran is the latest in a series of global conflicts that are ratcheting airlines' security concerns, while weighing on their operations and profitability. An increasing number of conflict zones around the world means airlines are forced to take longer and costlier routes – impacting fuel, emissions and passengers. For passengers, this means flight cancellations and delays or longer journeys as jets are diverted away from conflict areas. Airlines are grappling with more airspace closures, threats from missiles or drones and GPS jamming. Israel's attack on Friday is part of a broader trend of escalating geopolitical tensions that are 'directly impacting global aviation', following the situations in Ukraine and the Red Sea, according to independent security, aviation, maritime and energy analyst Dean Mikkelsen. 'We're witnessing a growing patchwork of restricted airspace and this is putting considerable pressure on airlines and passengers alike,' he told The National. For travellers, the most immediate impact will be on fares as aviation disruption results in longer flight times due to rerouting. In this case, routes need to be adapted around Iranian, Syrian and at times even Iraqi airspace, Mr Mikkelsen said. Fuel consumption is expected to rise significantly. Jet fuel already makes up around 30 per cent of an airline's operating costs and that burden only grows when 30 to 90 minutes of extra flight time is needed. Mr Mikkelsen estimates that routes from Asia to Europe or the Gulf to North America could translate to a 7 per cent to 15 per cent increase in fares, particularly on long-haul itineraries, especially as the peak summer season approaches. Other knock-on effects are those on crew hours, insurance premiums and scheduling complexity, all of which erode profitability, he noted. 'Carriers already operating on tight post-pandemic margins will feel this sharply,' he added. The Israel-Iran conflict throws the region's aviation industry into question, especially with the uncertainty about how long the hostility will last. Airspaces should always remain neutral and accessible when it is safe to do so, according to the International Air Travel Association. Closures, in addition to using them in retaliatory ways, 'fragment global connectivity, disrupt operations and hurt passengers and economies', the Geneva-based Iata said. Conflict zones substantially add to the disruption risks: in 2024, geopolitical conflicts led to significant airspace restrictions, affecting a substantial portion of long-haul routes, according to Iata data. For instance, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, now in its fourth year, forced the rerouting of about 1,100 daily flights, leading to longer flight times and increased operational challenges, it said. Fuel and emissions have also surged. Detours around conflict zones can lead to an average fuel consumption increase of 13 per cent on affected routes, Iata added. When British Airways had to suspend flights to Beijing because it needed to avoid Russian airspace, the flight time was almost three hours longer and fuel costs increased by a fifth. In October 2024 alone, multiple flights encountered Iranian missiles aimed at Israel, leading to diversions and emergency manoeuvres, Iata said. The effect that conflict zones have on airspaces is also reflected in the shift of activity to other areas. For instance, countries like Egypt, with many rerouted flights passing through its airspace, would result in increased overflight fees and greater regional air traffic. 'The Cairo Flight Information Region is becoming a crucial alternative corridor, alongside Jordan and Saudi Arabia,' Mr Mikkelsen said. Airlines across the region have delayed and cancelled flights following Israel's early morning attack on Iran. Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv has shut down until further notice, Iran has declared its airspace closed and Iraq has temporarily suspended civilian operations at all its airports. In the UAE, Etihad Airways cancelled its services to and from Tel Aviv, as Israel placed its air defence systems on high alert in anticipation of possible retaliation. Other major airlines, including Emirates, Lufthansa and Air India, rerouted services mid-flight on Friday. An Emirates flight from Manchester was diverted to Istanbul, while an Air India flight from New York to Delhi was diverted to Sharjah.
The National
15-05-2025
- Business
- The National
'A flying White House': What it will take to turn Qatar's 747 into Air Force One
Live updates: Follow the latest on Trump's Gulf trip US President Donald Trump accepted Qatar's offer of a luxury Boeing 747 but the plane would need to be retrofitted to standards that the Air Force One currently maintains, and this is no mean feat. Turning the 747 into the plane reserved for use by the America's leader, essentially a flying White House, could cost about $1 billion and take up to three years, an analyst said. 'If this goes ahead, what we're looking at is a fit-out cost somewhere between $800 million and $1.2 billion to bring the Qatari royal family's 747 up to the level of Air Force One,' Dean Mikkelsen, an independent security, aviation, maritime and energy analyst, told The National. That includes stripping out the gold-plated luxury interiors and replacing them with a secure communications systems, EMP shielding, missile defence, and even aerial refuelling capability. 'You'd also need to add a secure command suite, medical bay, and facilities for the president's team, military aides and press corps – essentially turning it into a flying White House,' Mr Mikkelsen said. That will be a time-consuming job. 'Realistically, you're looking at two to three years to fully convert and certify it to US Air Force standards,' he said. US plane maker Boeing is already in the midst of efforts to convert two 747s to replace current Air Force One planes, which it expects to complete by 2027. A new commercial Boeing 747-8 costs about $400 million, making the retrofit bill twice as expensive. The Qatar plane – 89 seats and an opulent French-designed interior – will need major refurbishments to meet the required standard. Turning the Qatari jetliner into Air Force One would cost billions of dollars and take years to accomplish, Richard Aboulafia, managing director of Washington-based aviation consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory, told The National. 'The aircraft would need to be completely stripped down and reassembled, with advanced mission equipment and capabilities integrated inside. It would be a new aircraft, effectively,' he said. 'Starting over again with the Qatar plane wouldn't produce a usable Air Force One until 2030 or later.' The 'flying Oval Office' has 4,000 square feet of interior floor space, according to Boeing's website. Among its accommodations are a conference/dining room, quarters for the president and the first lady, an office area for senior staff members, an office that turns into a medical facility when needed, two galleys that can provide 100 meals at one sitting and multi-frequency radios for air-to-air, air-to-ground and satellite communications. The main differences between Air Force One and the standard Boeing 747 include navigation, electronic and communications equipment and its interior configuration and furnishings, among other features. Meanwhile, Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on Wednesday that the Gulf nation's offer to donate a luxury plane to the US was not a personal gift. 'It is a government-to-government transaction. It has nothing to do with personnel, whether it's on the US side or on the Qatari side, it's the Ministry of Defence and Department of Defence,' he said in an interview with CNN on Wednesday, dismissing claims that Qatar was using it as a way of influencing Mr Trump. He added that ultimately, if the US needs something and it's legal, the Qataris will help, but not because they seek anything in return.
