4 days ago
Del Mar Summer: Let's Talk Numbers
Del Mar Summer: Let's Talk Numbers originally appeared on Paulick Report.
The first 11 days of the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club's 31-day summer horse racing meet are in the books, and the biggest races are yet to come. It's three weeks until Pacific Classic day on Aug. 30, when five graded stakes will be run, including three races serving as Breeders' Cup Challenge Series "Win and You're In" events: the G3 Green Flash Handicap for turf sprinters, the G2 Del Mar Handicap for turf marathoners, and the G1 Pacific Classic for the Breeders' Cup Classic division. Del Mar will host the Breeders' Cup for the second consecutive year on Oct. 31-Nov. 1, and the winners of the Challenge Series races get an automatic, fees-paid berth in the starting gate.
Closing weekend Sept. 6-7 puts the spotlight on 2-year-olds with a pair of Grade 1 races: the Debutante for fillies on Sept. 6 and the Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 7. Those races could have implications for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies and perhaps into the 2026 Triple Crown season and the key races for 3-year-old fillies.
With Golden Gate Fields shuttered and the Northern California fair circuit also out of business – at least in 2025 – Del Mar has been the beneficiary of horses migrating south. Field size has been healthy, with an average of 8.8 horses per race for the first three weeks of the meet. Dirt races have averaged 8.5 starters per race, with turf slightly higher at 9.1. Unlike tracks in the East and Midwest, Del Mar's summer race meet does not have to worry about races being taken off the turf because of rain.
A total of 108 races have been run going into the Aug. 7 program, with 40 winning favorites, 37 percent. The average winning payoff on a $2 bet is $13.49, with a median payoff of $8. The percentage of winning favorites is slightly higher on turf than dirt (38 percent vs. 36 percent), but the average mutuel price on turf is $14.94 compared to $12.24 on dirt. Median payoffs on dirt and turf, respectively, are $8.20 and $7.60. There have been 20 odds on favorites (less than even-money), with 14 winning (70 percent). Eight of 13 odds-on favorite on dirt have won, with six of seven odds-on turf favorites winning.
The inside No. 1 post position has not been the place to be in one-turn sprint races, on either surface. There have been only three winners from the inside stall in 42 races run at distances from five to seven furlongs on dirt. In the 18 turf sprints, all contested at five furlongs, there have been no winners breaking from the No. 1 post. Eleven of the 18 winners came from posts two, three and four.
In two-turn dirt races (one mile to 1 1/16 miles) there was no disadvantage to breaking from the inside, with four of 16 races won from the No. 1 post. Two-turn turf routes at one mile favored the three inside gates, with posts one, two and three winning 10 of 22 races.
The types of running styles that win can vary from day to day or week to week, but on average there is an undeniable advantage for early speed in turf sprints. Of the 18 turf races run at five furlongs, eight winners were front-runners and another eight raced within two lengths of the leader throughout. Only one sprint was won from midpack, and one was one from near the rear of the field. The placement of the temporary rail (12, 18, 24 or 30 out from the inside rail) didn't have much impact on turf turf routes, front-runners appeared to improve their chances when the temporary rails made the course narrower.
Speed also did well in those turf routes, with front-runners winning seven of 22 races at one mile. There was more balance in successful running styles in those races, with six winners coming from near the back and four from mid-pack.
Front-runners have not dominated on the main track at sprint distances, the one exception being five-furlong races for 2-year-olds, where nine of 11 winners raced either on the lead or just off. At 5 1/2 and six furlongs, there is a fairly even balance of the 23 winners, with six front-runners, nine just off the lead, six mid-pack and two closers.
Sixteen dirt races have been run around two turns at one mile or 1 1/16 miles, and there have been seven wire-to-wire winners.
This story was originally reported by Paulick Report on Aug 7, 2025, where it first appeared.
