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The Hindu
3 days ago
- Politics
- The Hindu
India's population reaches 146.39 crore, fertility rate drops below replacement level: UN report
India's population is estimated to have reached 146.39 crore by April, says a new UN demographic report, which adds that the country's total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, falling below the replacement level of 2.1. The population is expected to grow to 170 crore before starting to dip in about 40 years, the report titled 'State of the World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis' says. It calls India the 'world's most populous nation', while pegging former leader China's current population at 141.61 crore. The demographic indicators in the United Nations Population Fund report for 2025 are close to India's own projection of its population published in 2019 by a technical group of experts. According to these projections, India, as of 2025, is estimated to have a population of 141.10 crore. The decennial Census, due to have been conducted in 2021, has been delayed and the government has now announced that it will be completed by March 2027. The last Census was conducted in 2011. According to the latest Sample Registration System statistical report published by the Office of the Registrar General of India for 2021, the TFR in India was 2.0, the same as the year before, with the report saying that the replacement level TFR 'has been attained' nationally. The TFR measures the number of children a woman is expected to have throughout their reproductive age. Replacement level TFR is the rate needed for each generation to replace the previous generation's population. The real crisis The UN report says that millions of people are not able to realise their real fertility goals. Calling this the 'real' crisis, and not overpopulation or underpopulation, the report calls for the pursuit of reproductive agency — a person's ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception and starting a family — in a changing world. India's youth population remains significant, with about 24% of the population in the age bracket of 0-14, 17% in age group of 10-19, and 26% in the age group of 10-24. Further, the report estimates that 68% of the population in India is of working age (15-64 years). The elderly population (65 and older) currently stands at 7%, a figure that is expected to rise in the coming decades as life expectancy improves, it adds, confirming the projections the government in India has been working with. The UN report says that as of 2025, life expectancy at birth is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women. The report says its statistical tables on demographic indicators 'draw on nationally representative household surveys' such as 'Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), United Nations organizations estimates, and inter-agency estimates'. 'They also include the latest population estimates and projections from World Population Prospects: The 2024 revision, and Model-based Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators 2024 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division),' it adds.
Observer
06-05-2025
- Health
- Observer
America is erasing the data the world needs
In recent months, thousands of web pages and datasets have been removed from United States government websites. An informal army of 'data rescuers' has emerged to download, save and republish vital information, including some 300,000 datasets on before it is lost. But preserving existing data is only a temporary measure. The bigger question is how future data — particularly the health and climate data that are essential to guide policy — will be produced and published. This is not just an American problem. The US government has long supported the production of official statistics in low- and middle-income countries. For example, the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programme has been helping to produce survey data on key indicators such as child health and nutrition in 90+ countries for more than 40 years. These data have guided the development of countless valuable initiatives, from a support programme for pregnant women in Pakistan to an app that broadens access to support for victims of domestic violence in Uganda. Ten of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals rely on DHS data to track progress. But US President Donald Trump's administration has now suspended the DHS programme indefinitely and is dissolving the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which runs it. Alternative means of producing important health, demographic and other social data are urgently needed. One useful change would be to make better use of administrative data — the data that flow through government systems every time a new patient enters a hospital, a classroom register is taken in a school, or a new baby is born — rather than relying primarily on surveys. With efforts to consolidate and streamline major household-survey programmes already under way, greater reliance on administrative data would simply require a shift in focus — and investment — by governments and development partners. Climate data are also under growing pressure. The US administration has removed or made less accessible datasets the world relies on to track and predict changes to the climate. Meanwhile, proposed funding cuts are casting doubt on the future collection and analysis of such data. Even the data that are collected might not be shared internationally, given America's withdrawal from multilateral initiatives like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The US government has long supported the production of official statistics in low- and middle-income countries. While the European Union, Japan and others also have huge climate-data programmes, filling the gap left by the US will take considerable time and money, both of which are in short supply. Given this, innovators are needed to devise new tools and models; and to realise the full potential of new technologies, such as AI. The US government is not just erasing or obscuring data; it is also floating proposals to alter how data are reported. For example, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick has suggested dropping government-spending measures from GDP calculations. This change would make it more difficult to assess the impact of the US administration's massive federal spending cuts on the US economy. But established norms exist for a reason: they ensure the reliability and comparability of data over time and across countries. Lutnick's proposed change would undermine the reliability and usefulness of cross-country GDP comparisons. The international statistical community must therefore hold firm in defending long-established methods and principles, with the support of partners who recognise the critical importance of this often-overlooked but essential government function. Statisticians, data scientists and open-data advocates around the world are developing strategies and taking action to recover, protect and future-proof data. Data producers and users, in the US and elsewhere, can support these efforts — which will be neither easy nor straightforward — in five ways. First, they should monitor developments carefully. What changes in data policy are governments announcing and on what time scale? When datasets are removed and then reposted, have they been altered? Tracking such changes is essential to support advocacy to restore essential data. Second, they should develop compelling use cases and advocacy alliances. Government data not only support social progress; businesses and AI systems also depend on comprehensive, high-quality data for innovation and decision-making. Major corporations, including tech companies at the forefront of AI development, are potential allies in advocating for the continued production and sharing of robust data in every country. Third, new data-collection strategies must be implemented. Faced with reduced funding, countries should streamline household surveys, expand the use of sources like administrative and citizen data, share satellite data and contribute to a robust global data ecosystem. Fourth, to discourage arbitrary changes that undermine analysis and complicate comparisons, standards for collecting and publishing statistical and other data, such as GDP, should be strengthened and publicised. Finally, given that prevailing methods for collecting and publishing national data were never perfect, the current upheaval can be viewed as an opportunity to collaborate to improve methodology and data governance. Any such effort to rethink how data is collected and used should emphasise global and regional collaboration, information sharing; and alignment of methods and standards. @Project Syndicate, 2025
Yahoo
26-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Global population data is in crisis – here's why that matters
Every day, decisions that affect our lives depend on knowing how many people live where. For example, how many vaccines are needed in a community, where polling stations should be placed for elections or who might be in danger as a hurricane approaches. The answers rely on population data. But counting people is getting harder. For centuries, census and household surveys have been the backbone of population knowledge. But we've just returned from the UN's statistical commission meetings in New York, where experts reported that something alarming is happening to population data systems globally. Census response rates are declining in many countries, resulting in large margins of error. The 2020 US census undercounted America's Latino population by more than three times the rate of the 2010 census. In Paraguay, the latest census revealed a population one-fifth smaller than previously thought. South Africa's 2022 census post-enumeration survey revealed a likely undercount of more than 30%. According to the UN Economic Commission for Africa, undercounts and census delays due to COVID-19, conflict or financial limitations have resulted in an estimated one in three Africans not being counted in the 2020 census round. When people vanish from data, they vanish from policy. When certain groups are systematically undercounted – often minorities, rural communities or poorer people – they become invisible to policymakers. This translates directly into political underrepresentation and inadequate resource allocation. As the Brookings Institution, a US research organisation, has highlighted, undercounts have 'cost communities of colour political representation over the next decade'. This is happening because several factors have converged. Trust in government institutions is eroding worldwide, with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reporting that by late 2023, 44% of people across member countries had low or no trust in their national governments. Research shows a clear trend of declining trust specifically in representative institutions like parliaments and governments. This makes people less likely to respond to government-issued census requests. The COVID-19 pandemic created logistical nightmares for census takers. Many countries had to postpone their censuses. Budget cuts to statistical offices reduced capacity, while countries struggled with recruiting field staff. International funding for population data is also disappearing. The US-funded Demographic and Health Surveys program, which provided vital survey data across 90 countries for four decades, was terminated in February 2025. Unicef's Multi-Indicator Cluster program, which carries out household surveys, faces an uncertain future amid shrinking global aid budgets. US government cuts to support for UN agencies and development banks undertaking census support will likely have further impacts. This is incredibly worrying to us as geography academics, because gathering accurate population data is fundamentally about making everyone visible. As population scientists Sabrina Juran and Arona Pistiner wrote, this information allows governments to plan for the future of a country and its people. The US census directly impacts the allocation of more than US$1.5 trillion (£1.2 trillion) in public resources each year. How can governments distribute healthcare funding without knowing who lives where? How can disaster response be effective if vulnerable populations are invisible in official population counts? Countries are adapting. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the transition to alternative census methodologies. Many countries turned to online questionnaires, telephone interviews and administrative data sources to reduce face-to-face interactions. The UN Economic Commission for Africa recommends that countries move from using paper forms for census data collection and embrace new digital technologies that can be cheaper and more reliable. Turkey's switch in 2011 reduced census costs from US$48.3 million to US$13.9 million while improving data quality and timeliness, and nearly 80% of countries used tablets or smartphones for data collection in the 2020 round of censuses. At WorldPop, our research group at the University of Southampton, we're also helping governments to develop solutions using new technologies. Buildings mapped from satellite imagery using AI, together with counts of populations from small areas, can help create detailed population estimates to support census implementation or provide estimates for undersurveyed areas. As we face growing challenges, from climate change to economic inequality, having accurate, reliable and robust population data isn't a luxury. It's essential for a functioning society. National statistical offices, UN agencies, academics, the private sector and donors must urgently focus on how to build cost-effective solutions to provide reliable and robust population data, especially in resource-poor settings where recent cuts will be felt hardest. When people disappear from the data, they risk disappearing from public policy too. Making everyone count starts with counting everyone. Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation's environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who've subscribed so far. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Andrew J Tatem works for the University of Southampton, and is Director of WorldPop. His research on mapping populations has been funded by donors such as the Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, GAVI. Jessica Espey works for the University of Southampton. Her research on data, statistics and evidence use has previously been funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Gates Foundation and others.
New York Times
26-02-2025
- Health
- New York Times
Trump Administration Ends Global Health Research Program
An obscure but influential program that gave detailed public health information to about half of the world's nations will fold as a result of the Trump administration's freeze on foreign aid. With funding from the United States Agency for International Development, the Demographic and Health Surveys were the only sources of information in many countries about maternal and child health and mortality, nutrition, reproductive health and H.I.V. infections, among many other health indicators. The surveys collected data in 90 low- and middle-income nations, which then used the information to set health benchmarks at the local, national and global levels, including the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals adopted by member countries of the United Nations. On Tuesday, the program's administrators learned that it was being 'terminated for the convenience of the U.S. Government,' effective immediately, according to an email viewed by The New York Times. They were ordered to 'stop all work, terminate subcontracts and place no further orders.' The Trump administration is dismantling U.S.A.I.D.; thousands of layoffs are expected in the coming days. Without future surveys, it will be nearly impossible to measure the impact of the those foreign aid cuts on citizens in nations without substantial health infrastructure. Some global health experts reacted to the program's demise with dismay. 'It's really challenging for me to understand how you could implement thoughtful programs in public health and monitor progress toward strategic goals if you don't have the kind of data that are available from the D.H.S.,' Win Brown, a demographer at the University of Washington, said. 'You can't keep track of what's going on, you can't form strategies, you can't make adjustments based on how your data are changing,' he added. It was unclear what might happen to the research that has been collected over past decades, or to the ongoing survey projects in 25 countries. 'We need to figure out a way to salvage that data, and I think that's feasible,' Livia Montana, the program's technical director, said. The surveys have been conducted since 1984. The funding totaled about $500 million over five years, about half of which came from U.S.A.I.D. and half from other donors, including the nations themselves. Some countries, like India, had almost entirely taken over the financing of their own surveys. The research is widely seen as indispensable. 'The impact of these disruptions will reverberate across local, regional, national and global levels,' a group of dozens of experts warned on Feb. 13. Some United Nations organizations assess child and adolescent health or census data in some countries, while others measure household income or agricultural output. But the Demographic and Health Surveys, collected every five years, recorded all critical aspects of household health, including mortality data, height and weight and nutrition status of children and adults, education and literacy, as well as access to clean water and mobile phones. 'Malnutrition indicators are among the most important,' because they can reflect a range of societal factors, Dr. Montana said. The surveys also separately evaluated malaria indicators and health facilities. Estimates of maternal and child mortality are crucially important in countries that do not have good death registration systems. The surveys also measured family size, which can indicate the availability of family planning but also reflect broader societal factors, including access to education for girls. Dr. Brown has used the surveys, for example, to compare contraceptive use among women in countries like Egypt, Pakistan and India over decades. 'In a survey like D.H.S., you're on the ground talking to real people, on the stoop of their real houses in real communities,' he said. Like other projects funded with foreign aid, the program was under a stop-work order before the termination. All but 11 of its staff of 80 were placed on leave without pay, and its relationships with contractors ended a few weeks ago. Informed of the halt, some national governments expressed concern and empathy, and several asked if they could pay to finish the work. Others took it in stride, Dr. Montana said. 'It's sort of like they have experienced more of this kind of thing where political winds change right away and things happen,' she said.
