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2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: An early look coming out of the NFL Draft
2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: An early look coming out of the NFL Draft

NBC Sports

time12-05-2025

  • Sport
  • NBC Sports

2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: An early look coming out of the NFL Draft

Now that we are a couple of weeks post-NFL Draft, the dynasty drafts are flowing, predictions are being made and hopes for our favorite rookies are at an all-time high. For this exercise, myself and other members (writers, analysts and producers) of the NBC Sports/Rotoworld family have come together for an early redraft mock. This one is simple, 12-person, PPR with 12 rounds where we start the following: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX and four bench spots. Here is draft order: Lawrence Jackson Jr. - Fantasy Football Happy Hour Denny Carter - Rotoworld Football Show Patrick Daughtery - Rotoworld Football Show Nic Bodiford - Writer, Rotoworld Rivers McCown - Writer, Rotoworld Damian Dabrowski - Producer, Fantasy Football Happy Hour Zach Krueger - Writer, Rotoworld Christopher Crawford - Writer, Rotoworld Mark Garcia - Writer, Rotoworld Adam Wise - Producer, Fantasy Football Happy Hour/Rotoworld Football Show Aditya Fuldeore - Writer, Rotoworld Kyle Dvorchak - Rotoworld Football Show Matthew Berry, LET THE GAMES BEGIN Lawrence Jackson — Jahmyr Gibbs, RB1 Denny Carter — Ja'Marr Chase, WR1 Patrick Daugherty — Justin Jefferson, WR2 Nic Bodiford — Bijan Robinson, RB2 Rivers McCown — Saquon Barkley, RB3 Damian Dabrowski — CeeDee Lamb, WR3 Zach Krueger — Puka Nacua, WR4 Christopher Crawford — Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR5 Mark Garcia — Brian Thomas Jr., WR6 Adam Wise — Nico Collins, WR7 Aditya Fuldeore — Malik Nabers, WR8 Kyle Dvorchak — Brock Bowers, TE1 Notes: It's probably not the most likely first overall pick in a PPR fantasy draft when you have Ja'Marr Chase coming off a triple crown victory, but I rolled with Jahmyr Gibbs. To me, he's the best running back in football and will be in fantasy this season as well (RB2 in fantasy points per game last season). Denny and RotoPat follow it up with Chase and Justin Jefferson respectively. These picks are as expected as I mentioned Chase above and Jefferson has proven he can produce regardless of who's under center. Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley go back to back next followed by a target monster whose team didn't add any receivers in CeeDee Lamb. In the first round of a fantasy draft you can't really go wrong unless the injury bug strikes so a lot of these picks are what you'd expect to see. A slew of receivers (Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brian Thomas, Nico Collins and Malik Nabers) go off the board from picks 1.06-1.11 and then things get interesting. Kyle pulled the trigger on all-world tight end Brock Bowers at 1.12, giving him the 'Travis Kelce' type treatment of a few years back and why not? He's that good. Kyle Dvorchak — Ashton Jeanty, RB4 Aditya Fuldeore — Derrick Henry, RB5 Adam Wise — Christian McCaffrey, RB6 Mark Garcia — Tyreek Hill, WR9 Christopher Crawford — De'Von Achane, RB7 Zach Krueger — A.J. Brown, WR10 Damian Dabrowski — Drake London, WR11 Rivers McCown — Ladd McConkey, WR12 Nic Bodiford — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR13 Patrick Daugherty — Bucky Irving, RB8 Denny Carter — Terry McLaurin, WR14 Lawrence Jackson — Jonathan Taylor, RB9 Notes: In an unprecedented move as far as modern fantasy drafts go, Kyle goes back to back Raiders, adding Ashton Jeanty at 2.01. The hype is real and Jeanty is expected to be a workhorse for Pete Carroll's offense. Derrick Henry goes next which is no surprise, but what is interesting is that Christian McCaffrey went after him at 2.03. CMC could end up being one of the biggest steals of the draft if he remains healthy for a large portion of the season. Another player who could be of good value is Tyreek Hill who went one pick after CMC. Like round one of this draft there's a receiver run in the middle of the round (A.J Brown, Drake London, Ladd McConkey and Jaxon Smith-Njigba). Of these guys, I like London to make the biggest leap and potentially be a top-five fantasy receiver as he quietly was fourth in receiving yards last season. The round ends with Bucky Irving, Terry McLaurin and… Jonathan Taylor?? Am I missing something? If so, let me keep missing. Taylor was fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (1,431) and finished as RB11 in fantasy points per game despite a bad start. No running back was better in fantasy in the last six weeks of the season, sure I'll take that at 2.12. Lawrence Jackson — Garrett Wilson, WR15 Denny Carter — Chase Brown, RB10 Patrick Daugherty — Trey McBride, TE2 Nic Bodiford — Lamar Jackson, QB1 Rivers McCown — Tee Higgins, WR16 Damian Dabrowski — Josh Jacobs, RB11 Zach Krueger — Mike Evans, WR17 Christopher Crawford — Josh Allen, QB2 Mark Garcia — Jayden Daniels, QB3 Adam Wise — DJ Moore, WR18 Aditya Fuldeore — Davante Adams, WR19 Kyle Dvorchak — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR20 Notes: Round three is where guys start looking to draft quarterbacks because they're too scared to identify the late values (did this trigger you?). I start off with Garrett Wilson as this mock draft starts three players at receiver, then we get Chase Brown and Trey McBride off the board. The middle of the round sees Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen then Jayden Daniels come off the board as those will be the top-three consensus quarterbacks in fantasy. The round ends with DJ Moore, Davante Adams and Marvin Harrison Jr. being picked. Harrison's rookie season that ended in him going 62-885-8 was decent, but put on the back burner because of the success of fellow rookies Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. Kyle Dvorchak — Rashee Rice, WR21 Aditya Fuldeore — Jalen Hurts, QB4 Adam Wise — Zay Flowers, WR22 Mark Garcia — Breece Hall, RB12 Christopher Crawford — Kyren Williams, RB13 Zach Krueger — Courtland Sutton, WR23 Damian Dabrowski — Xavier Worthy, WR24 Rivers McCown — Joe Burrow, QB5 Nic Bodiford — Jameson Williams, WR25 Patrick Daugherty — Tetairoa McMillan, WR26 Denny Carter — Devonta Smith, WR27 Lawrence Jackson — DK Metcalf, WR28 Lawrence Jackson — Chris Olave, WR29 Denny Carter — Kenneth Walker, RB14 Patrick Daugherty — James Cook, RB15 Nic Bodiford — George Kittle, TE3 Rivers McCown — Joe Mixon, RB16 Damian Dabrowski — Travis Hunter, WR30 Zach Krueger — Chuba Hubbard, RB17 Christopher Crawford — Jordan Addison, WR31 Mark Garcia — T.J. Hockenson, TE4 Adam Wise — Omarion Hampton, RB18 Aditya Fuldeore — Alvin Kamara, RB19 Kyle Dvorchak — Jaylen Waddle, WR32 Kyle Dvorchak — Baker Mayfield, QB6 Aditya Fuldeore — James Conner, RB20 Adam Wise — Sam LaPorta, TE5 Mark Garcia — R.J. Harvey, RB21 Christopher Crawford — Jerry Jeudy, WR33 Zach Krueger — George Pickens, WR34 Damian Dabrowski — TreVeyon Henderson, RB22 Rivers McCown — Rome Odunze, WR35 Nic Bodiford — Calvin Ridley, WR36 Patrick Daugherty — Josh Downs, WR37 Denny Carter — Brandon Aiyuk, WR38 Lawrence Jackson — Khalil Shakir, WR39 Notes: Round four kicks off with one of the bigger question marks heading into the season and that's the injury/legal status of Chiefs' wide receiver Rashee Rice. This pick could turn out to be a steal or it could turn out to be real…bad. The Chiefs drafted Utah State receiver Jaylen Royals to help soften the blow. Breece Hall and Kyren Williams back to back at 4.04 and 4.05 respectively raised my antennas. On the one hand I think you get great value here with Williams as he was a top 10 back in fantasy last season with what appears to be no real threat to cut into his touches (Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter). Hall has Braelon Allen and perhaps Isaiah Davis breathing down his neck and Jets' coach Aaron Glenn loves all of his backs. Two more QBs go in the fourth round (Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow), but the back half of the round is loaded with receivers that includes Tetairoa McMillan, the first rookie receiver picked in this draft. I start off round five with Chris Olave either hoping Spencer Rattler wins the starting quarterback job. Some of the bigger values I see in this round are James Cook, Alvin Kamara and Jaylen Waddle. Omarion Hampton went one pick ahead of Kamara here, he'll have Najee Harris to work through at least for the first half of the season with the way Jim Harbaugh wants to deploy his backs. The star of this round is undoubtedly Travis Hunter who goes at 5.06 and has already been tabbed as an offensive player by the Jaguars' coaching staff. That will be fun to see and if Hunter is getting anywhere from 6-8 (maybe even more) targets per game, he will easily bring back a return on your investment. Baker Mayfield comes off the board at the beginning of round six as the QB5 for his passing volume over the past couple of seasons. After 'come back down to earth' season from Sam LaPorta, he seems like a solid value in this round. This is a big round for rookie running backs as both R.J. Harvey and TreVeyon Henderson go within three picks of each other. Harvey seems to have the clearer path to more touches at this point, but Henderson should very well pay back the price of this pick with his versatility. The biggest question mark of this round is how good can George Pickens be now that he's a Cowboy? In a new offense with a major quarterback upgrade, he's worth a shot at 6.06. There's another receiver run to end the round with a lot of quality receivers (Rome Odunze, Calvin Ridley, Josh Downs, Brandon Aiyuk and Khalil Shakir) who all have top-16 upside. Kyle Dvorchak, Lawrence Jackson — D'Andre Swift, RB23 Denny Carter — David Montgomery, RB24 Patrick Daugherty — Quinshon Judkins, RB25 Nic Bodiford — Isiah Pacheco, RB26 Rivers McCown — Jauan Jennings, WR40 Damian Dabrowski — Chris Godwin, WR41 Zach Krueger — Mark Andrews, TE6 Christopher Crawford — Travis Kelce, TE7 Mark Garcia — Tyrone Tracy, RB27 Adam Wise — Tony Pollard, RB28 Aditya Fuldeore — Jakobi Meyers, WR42 Kyle Dvorchak — Kaleb Johnson, RB29 Kyle Dvorchak — Deebo Samuel, WR43 Aditya Fuldeore — Jonnu Smith, TE8 Adam Wise — Jayden Reed, WR44 Mark Garcia — Cooper Kupp, WR45 Christopher Crawford — Brian Robinson, RB30 Zach Krueger — Najee Harris, RB31 Damian Dabrowski — Patrick Mahomes, QB7 Rivers McCown — Aaron Jones, RB32 Nic Bodiford — Darnell Mooney, WR46 Patrick Daugherty — Tre Harris, WR47 Denny Carter — David Njoku, TE9 Lawrence Jackson — Evan Engram, TE10 Lawrence Jackson — Justin Fields, QB8 Denny Carter — Michael Pittman Jr.,, WR48 Patrick Daugherty — Rashid Shaheed, WR49 Nic Bodiford — Hollywood Brown, WR50 Rivers McCown — Matthew Golden, WR51 Damian Dabrowski — Colston Loveland, TE11 Zach Krueger — Cam Skattebo, RB33 Christopher Crawford — Keon Coleman, WR52 Mark Garcia — Stefon Diggs, WR53 Adam Wise — Kyler Murray, QB9 Aditya Fuldeore — Bhayshul Tuten, RB34 Kyle Dvorchak — Ricky Pearsall, WR54 Notes: It's the opposite for the start of the seventh round as we get a little running back run that I start off with D'Andre Swift. I know fantasy football nerds hate Swift, but who's he losing massive touches to as of today? David Montgomery goes right after which is a great pick followed by Quinshon Judkins, I decided between those three. The one that came after that was one you may have to worry about in Isiah Pacheco. He could either bounce back or turn into a committee back, which is why he fell this far. Chris Godwin goes in this round as well and probably would go three rounds higher if not for an injury he's trying to come back from. There's another couple of guys who'd go four or five rounds higher if it were three years ago in Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. Neither can be trusted as the elite options they once were. The round ends with zone runner Kaleb Johnson who has a chance to take over Najee Harris' role from last season in Pittsburgh. In the next couple of rounds most of us are trying to gather WR3s, WR4s and running backs we hope to use in our FLEX spots. Players like Deebo Samuel, Jayden Reed and Cooper Kupp are looking to regain the form that once made them fantasy must-starts. Running backs Najee Harris and Brian Robinson go in the middle of the eighth round and both have double-digit touchdowns within their range of outcomes. I took Justin Fields as my starting quarterback at the top of the ninth knowing he'll get the full season as a starter. I took him over Kyler Murray (9.10) who could end up being the better pick. Two guys picked in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft (Cam Skattebo and Bhayshul Tuten) are fliers who could pan out on their respective teams. Patrick Daugherty, Kyle Dvorchak — Emeka Egbuka, WR55 Aditya Fuldeore — Tyjae Spears, RB35 Adam Wise — Jaylen Warren, RB36 Mark Garcia — Travis Etienne, RB37 Christopher Crawford — Javonte Williams, RB38 Zach Krueger — Rhamondre Stevenson, RB39 Damian Dabrowski — Jordan Mason, RB40 Rivers McCown — Christian Kirk, WR56 Nic Bodiford — Jayden Higgins, WR57 Patrick Daugherty — Luther Burden, WR58 Denny Carter — Rachaad White. RB41 Lawrence Jackson — Tyler Warren, TE12 Lawrence Jackson — Anthony Richardson, QB10 Denny Carter — Tyler Allgeier, RB42 Patrick Daugherty — Dak Prescott, QB11 Nic Bodiford — Ray Davis, RB43 Rivers McCown — Dallas Goedert, TE13 Damian Dabrowski — Zach Charbonnet, RB44 Zach Krueger — Isaac Guerendo, RB45 Christopher Crawford — Justin Herbert, QB12 Mark Garcia — Diontae Johnson, WR59 Adam Wise — Jack Bech, WR60 Aditya Fuldeore — Quentin Johnston, WR61 Kyle Dvorchak — Tank Bigsby, RB46 Kyle Dvorchak — Jaydon Blue, RB47 Aditya Fuldeore — Rashod Bateman, WR62 Adam Wise — C.J. Stroud, QB13 Mark Garcia — DeAndre Hopkins, WR63 Christopher Crawford — Adam Thielen, WR64 Zach Krueger — Bo Nix, QB14 Damian Dabrowski — Kyle Williams, WR65 Rivers McCown — Dalton Kincaid, TE14 Nic Bodiford — Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB48 Patrick Daugherty — Marvin Mims, WR66 Denny Carter — Jared Goff, QB15 Lawrence Jackson — Elic Ayomanor, WR67 Notes: Speaking of fliers, these are the rounds of exactly that. Kyle starts it off at 10.01 with pro-ready rookie Emeka Egbuka. Six straight running backs go after including Javonte Williams who has the clearest path to lead running back duties (for now). Luther Burden, who is in a crowded Bears receiver room goes later in round after another rookie in Jayden Higgins (I think Jaylin Noel pops off first). I end the round going with Tyler Warren (10.12) and going with Anthony Richardson (who is only 22 years old and started only 12 full NFL games) right after at 11.01. I like RotoPat's move to wait all the way to the eleventh round to snag Dak Prescott as his starting quarterback. I feel like he can get back to MVP level playing now that the Cowboys have George Pickens on the roster. In these last few rounds we are all shooting shots so I have no probs with a Dallas Godert or a Justin Herbert. My favorite pick in the eleventh round would be Jack Bech who I feel like could insert himself fairly quickly into the raiders offense. The beginning of the 12th round starts off with two sneaky good pics in Jaydon Blue and Rashod Bateman. The rest are daft throws ranging from DeAndre Hopkins to rookie Kyle Williams. Things can and will certainly certainly change between now and fantasy draft season, but hopefully this exercise gives you an idea of where our minds are at as of today.

2025 NFL Draft Analysis: Biggest surprises, best picks, notable misses from our Rotoworld roundtable
2025 NFL Draft Analysis: Biggest surprises, best picks, notable misses from our Rotoworld roundtable

NBC Sports

time30-04-2025

  • Sport
  • NBC Sports

2025 NFL Draft Analysis: Biggest surprises, best picks, notable misses from our Rotoworld roundtable

Everybody has opinions about the 2025 NFL Draft. And believe it or not, they don't all have to do with Browns fifth-round pick QB Shedeur Sanders. We got the Rotoworld Football crew together for a wide-ranging roundtable discussion about what we witnessed during the three days in Green Bay and what to think about moving forward. Check out where our analysts agreed and differed. Denny Carter, Beyond Shedeur Sanders' slide, what surprised you the most about the 2025 NFL Draft? Patrick Daugherty: That the Falcons continue to operate like they are in the middle of a Super Bowl window. There is an understandable sense of urgency after last year's desperate selection of Michael Penix Jr., but the reality is he's about to turn 25 years old and has thrown 105 NFL passes. He isn't the kind of player I would be orienting my entire franchise around, but that's the message you send when you trade a future first-rounder to trade up to … 26 … to select a non-quarterback. 'Unorthodox' is putting it kindly. Lawrence Jackson Jr: The Browns not selecting a single wide receiver was very surprising to me, but never fear, they signed Diontae Johnson to save the day. Kyle Dvorchak: The Browns giving up the NFL's Shohei Ohtani stunned me. They got a great haul from the Jags for the pick and the analytics probably like the move, but it cost them a generational player in the most literal sense of the word. GM Andrew Berry gushing over Travis Hunter at the combine had me convinced they were picking him and that's the reaction they wanted from NFL teams. The Jags bought the hype and I can't blame them. Denny Carter: It's baffling that the Cowboys wouldn't do something -- anything -- to improve their receiver room, which might be the worst in the entire league. They have no one behind CeeDee Lamb and seem content with it. That they didn't sell out to get Tetairoa McMillan or get aggressive in acquiring George Pickens during the draft is stunning, and a sign that Jerry Jones' team is not a serious organization in any way. Zachary Krueger: The Chargers going with Omarion Hampton at No. 22 overall certainly grabbed my attention. The Chargers signed Najee Harris to a one-year, $5.250 million contract this offseason. It's far from a king's ransom, but any thought of Harris leading the Chargers' backfield in 2025 could be put to rest at a moment's notice with Hampton now in town. This pairing has already been teased by Jim Harbaugh as a '1-2 punch,' and while that may be the case early on, it's easy to envision the Chargers leaning more on Hampton once he begins to stand out as the superior back. What was your favorite draft pick regardless of fantasy implications? Daugherty: Mr. Cameron Ward. In a disappointing overall draft class — especially on offense, and particularly at quarterback — the QB-needy Titans locked in early and didn't deviate. They turned down multiple reported offers for the No. 1 overall pick and simply took the best player available. A boring answer, but this was a boring group. Jackson: Travis Hunter going to the Jaguars was great because I predicted it. Furthermore, it seems to be the best place for Hunter to thrive and use all of his skills to the fullest. Dvorchak: Assuming my colleagues load up on fantasy players—as they should, it's more fun—I'll go with Dallas nabbing EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku. The Boston College alum ranked second in the country in sacks (16.5) and pressures (60) in 2024. He was projected to go in the first round and the Cowboys managed to land him with pick No. 44. Carter: After all their hemming and hawing, it was good to see the Titans make the right decision and take Cam Ward with the first overall pick. Ward has no glaring holes in his profile and was freakishly good in high-leverage situations at Miami. A team can't succeed without a viable quarterback, and the Titans didn't overthink it. Pulling the plug on the doomed Will Levis Experiment was the right move -- one that could one day help the Titans exit laughing stock territory. Krueger: The Ravens' selection of Malaki Starks with the No. 27 pick was peak Eric DeCosta. Pairing a player with Starks' football acumen and ability to track the ball should bode very well for the defense and how it enables them to deploy Kyle Hamilton, one of the league's premier defensive chess pieces. There was an obvious gap between No. 1 pick Cam Ward and the other quarterbacks in this year's class. Who do you think has the best chance to emerge from the pack? Daugherty: It's Jaxson Dart. Although I have questions about his ability to process at an NFL level, he is a solid athlete who is actually comfortable throwing down the field. If a big-league coaching staff can refine some of his rougher edges, he could get going in a hurry. Athleticism and a big-play mentality are two things you can't teach a QB. Jackson: To me, no, there isn't a big gap and I've always felt him and Shedeur Sanders are neck and neck, but soon we'll get to find out. I expect Ward and Sanders to be successful in the NFL. Dvorchak: I'll go with a deeper cut in Will Howard. The Ohio State quarterback is currently set to compete with Mason Rudolph for the starting job in Pittsburgh. This changes if Aaron Rodgers signs, but that's far from a foregone conclusion. Howard is a big-bodied dual threat who needs to cut out excessive mistakes from his game, but he's a quarterback Arthur Smith could successfully operate a run-run-pass offense with. Carter: Jaxson Dart is the safe answer here. I'll go with Riley Leonard though. Colts head coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard were reportedly smitten with Leonard in the pre-draft evaluation process. Leonard, meanwhile, was one of the best rushing QBs in modern college football history and not a bad passer by any means. Leonard is instantly an upgrade over Anthony Richardson. Maybe Daniel Jones will stand in the way for a bit, but I like Leonard's chances to start games in 2025. Krueger: I don't love any quarterback in this class, but Jaxson Dart was a highly-touted recruit entering college who compiled a solid college résumé and demonstrated some rushing acumen (over 1,900 career rushing yards, according to PFF, which factors out yards lost via sacks). As long as he has Brian Daboll leading the way, I think Dart has a chance to turn into a solid producer at the next level. There were a few teams who didn't address an obvious area of need. Which team stood out the most in this regard? Daugherty: The Packers addressed their glaring need for a No. 1 receiver by … taking someone who doesn't project as a No. 1 receiver to me. Matthew Golden has his backers, obviously, but it's all too easy to envision him maxing out as a No. 3 role player, something the Pack already have in abundance. Jackson: The Steelers coming into the draft with Mason Rudolph as their starter (hoping Aaron Rodgers plays) and leaving with Will Howard in the 6th round was interesting. Hey what do I know? Dvorchak: The Cowboys bravely refusing to spend much on running back or anything on receiver was odd to say the least. In a class loaded at running back, they got a pair of underwhelming role-players in Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah. Desperately needing a WR2, the Cowboys ignored the depth of the class and didn't draft a single one. Carter: I won't repeat myself with the Cowboys criticism so I'll go with the Steelers failing to address their lack of a viable NFL starting quarterback. Will Howard doesn't count because Will Howard stinks. Mason Rudolph is going to start 17 games for the Steelers in 2025 unless Aaron Rodgers' spiritual journey leads him to a Primanti's in downtown Pittsburgh this summer. Krueger: The Commanders' decision to avoid the running back position until the final round was a curious one. Last season, Brian Robinson ranked in the bottom-15 amongst running backs (min. 100 carries) in stuff rate (50.3 percent), missed tackles forced rate (13 percent), and yards after contact per attempt (2.25). Austin Ekeler will be 30 at the start of next season, and Chris Rodriguez doesn't offer anything unique relative to the top two backs. The Commanders ranked fifth in rush attempts last season (526) and are expected to lean heavily on the ground game again in 2025. Jayden Daniels will offer plenty on the ground but the running backs could leave much to be desired. Which NFL team improved their 2025 chances the most in the draft? Daugherty: The Raiders, who made 11 picks and threw multiple early-ish selections at several areas of need, all while landing maybe the best overall player in the class, Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty allows Vegas to swim against the current of elite quarterback play in the AFC West with a unique approach of their own. They know they can't win a Mahomes fight, so they are trying to start a new one on Pete Carroll's iconoclastic terms. Lawrence: The Atlanta Falcons had a nice draft in my opinion. They are set on offense, but don't have a pass rush, expect James Pearce and Jalon Walker to help with that. Dvorchak: Look, the Patriots are still underdogs to be even a .500 team in 2025. But, they filled massive holes on offense, often at tremendous value, throughout the draft. The moves give Drake Maye enough to succeed if he lives up to the hype. Carter: I guess I'll say the Jaguars. Obviously they won't be Super Bowl contenders but trading up for Travis Hunter -- projected to be the most important and transcendent athlete in American history -- to have alongside the dominant Brian Thomas is going to make Trevor Lawrence too big to fail. The Jags also got some much-needed help in their miserable secondary and offensive line. Altogether it was a good draft for Jacksonville's Gen-Z general manager. Krueger: I like how the Patriots addressed the draft in their first season under Mike Vrabel. They immediately upgraded the offensive line for Drake Maye with the selection of Will Campbell, and the selection of TreVeyon Henderson should make for a solid backfield duo with Rhamondre Stevenson. The selection of Kyle Williams also speaks to their desire to improve on a wide receiver corps that was one of the league's worst last season. Assuming Maye is the real deal, which I believe he is, the Patriots offense should take a notable step forward in 2025, even if the roster is still a year or two away from being viewed as a perennial playoff contender.

Super Bowl LIX Eagles vs. Chiefs roundtable: Expert picks, bold predictions from Rotoworld staff
Super Bowl LIX Eagles vs. Chiefs roundtable: Expert picks, bold predictions from Rotoworld staff

NBC Sports

time08-02-2025

  • Sport
  • NBC Sports

Super Bowl LIX Eagles vs. Chiefs roundtable: Expert picks, bold predictions from Rotoworld staff

Patrick Daugherty and Denny Carter discuss how to navigate DFS picks for Super Bowl LIX, and how you can get "unique" by leaving Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley out of your lineups. With Super Bowl LIX a little over 24 hours away, the Rotoworld crew gathered around to touch on what they believe it will take for each team to win, what a third-straight Super Bowl title would mean for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, and how they believe things will ultimately unfold come Sunday. The Chiefs win on Sunday if... Denny Carter: I think KC will edge the Eagles if their short-area pass catchers -- namely Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce -- can be productive after the catch. It's a tall task against a Philly defense that allowed the fourth lowest adjusted yards per attempt on passes between 0-10 yards this season. The Chiefs are going to get nothing downfield; they'll have to be ultra-efficient in the short areas. Kyle Dvorchak: Kansas City wins by taking an early lead and keeping its foot on the gas. The Eagles are capable of making a comeback, but it's not what they're built for. Lawrence Jackson Jr.: If they continue to out-coach their opponents and win the situational football battles like they always do. They also cannot allow the Eagles' defense to get pressure with four pass rushers while the defensive backs have success in coverage, both of which they are capable of. Chiefs have to pick their poison on defense and keep the Eagles off-balanced on offense. Patrick Daugherty: We get a normal football game. Normality is the Chiefs' friend. Normality means limited turnovers and sacks. Normality means grinding drives that end with points. It doesn't really matter if it's field goals or touchdowns. This iteration of the Chiefs has won more normal football games than any team in NFL history. The Eagles need variance. Zachary Krueger: They stick to the plan. It's hard to imagine one of the best quarterbacks in the game also being one of the league's more conservative passers, but Mahomes and the Chiefs know what's gotten them here. Over the last three seasons, the Chiefs have been in the bottom 10 in both ADOT and deep throw rate but have been in the top 10 in EPA per dropback and YPA over that span. How does this happen? Good downfield blocking and perfect execution. The Eagles' young pass defense has been surprisingly strong this season, and has allowed the third-lowest yards after catch per reception (YAC/REC) on passes of 5.0 air yards or less. The Chiefs' offense, on the other hand, has the 10th-highest YAC/REC on those passes. This is a strength-on-strength matchup that the Chiefs will need to win if they hope to three-peat on Sunday. The Eagles win on Sunday if... Carter: The Eagles have a great shot of knocking off the Chiefs if AJ Brown continues dominating against man coverage looks, the way he has throughout the past two seasons. The Chiefs, I think, will sell out to stop Saquon Barkley and see if Jalen Hurts is up to the task. Hurts could (should) target Brown heavily in such a scenario, and Brown -- who topped the league in yards per route against man coverage schemes in 2024 -- could make Kansas City pay. Dvorchak: The Eagles need to defend the short area perfectly. They have done so all year, but no one executes those throws better than Mahomes and the Chiefs. If Philly can shut down KC's quick-passing game, they can neutralize Mahomes. Jackson: If they don't get tricked out of leaving who they came to the prom with, and that's mostly Saquon Barkley. I'm not one of these ignorant folks who thinks Jalen Hurts is incapable of throwing the ball at a high level, but Barkley was the best player in the NFL this season behind Lamar Jackson. Don't get scared away from the run game. In the passing game, I expect the Eagles to take what the defense gives them. For the Eagles on defense, you've got to find a way to get Mahomes off his mark; it's a simple answer but not a simple task. Daugherty: If the Chiefs' run defense falls apart. Kansas City has been uneven on the ground but highly adaptable. If it ends up Sunday they don't actually have the horses, they're going to have to commit too many extra resources up front, and then A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith can start soul reaving down the field. Steve Spagnuolo has had an answer for almost everything, but it would be difficult to come up with a solution for that. Krueger: Saquon Barkley does 'Saquon Barkley' things. Jalen Hurts is unfairly criticized as a passer, but look no further than the man who rushed for 2,005 yards and scored 15 touchdowns as the primary reason the Eagles are where they are. Having an elite run-blocking unit and a top-five defense also helps. The Eagles are unlikely to win the coaching battle, but Barkley can make life easier for Nick Sirianni and the offense by keeping the offense on schedule and breaking off one or two of his signature long runs. This would force the Chiefs into a more aggressive style of play, which could play into Philly's hand. Kyle Dvorchak, +1 More Denny Carter, What would a third-straight Super Bowl (fourth overall) mean for the legacy of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid? Carter: Because Mahomes lost to Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, he can never really be the greatest quarterback of all time in the public's imagination. Mahomes' Super Bowl loss to Tampa -- which was no fault of his own -- sealed the deal. But I think Mahomes can establish himself as the clear No. 2 of all time with a win here or in any of the handful of other Super Bowl appearances he'll make over the rest of his career. Dvorchak: For the enlighted among us, Mahomes is already the GOAT. A fourth Super Bowl only serves to close the gap between him and Tom Brady for the non-believers. Jackson: It would mean they are in NFL immortality because no team has done it. It's hard to make the playoffs every season, and these guys have turned the Super Bowl into the Kansas City Chiefs Invitational. Both Reid and Mahomes would substantially close the gap on being the GOAT in their respective lanes. Daugherty: There's a desperate desire amongst certain people to equate this Chiefs group with the Patriots' multi-decade dynasty. Not even a third straight Super Bowl would equal that yet. What it would do is give the Chiefs something no other franchise has — three straight Lombardis — while keeping them on a methodical track to eventually catch or even surpass the Brady/Belichick Pats. Krueger: It would be the one thing Tom Brady and Bill Belichick did not accomplish. The conversation for the all-time quarterback/head coaching duo starts and ends with those two, but a third-straight Super Bowl victory for Mahomes and Reid moves them closer to the top of the conversation, with plenty of time left to stand alone at the top before all is said and done. Brady won three Super Bowls before his 30th birthday. Mahomes, who will turn 30 this September, has already hit that mark. A fourth would keep him well on pace to tie/top Brady's career total, and possibly in a much quicker fashion. What is one bold prediction for Sunday's game? Carter: I think the Chiefs will be the first team to kinda sorta stop Barkley. KC's defense adjusts to the other team's strengths, and no team's strength is more clearly in the run game. I foresee a frustrating outing for Barkley. Dvorchak: Kansas City keeps Saquon Barkley in check. The Chiefs were one of the best teams at preventing explosive runs this year. Steve Spagnuolo is going to make Jalen Hurts beat him. Jackson: Jalen Hurts will convincingly be the Super Bowl MVP over my actual pick in Saquon Barkley (you see what I did there). Hurts is right there with Patrick Mahomes as far as on-field mental toughness for quarterbacks goes, and he is one of the best pocket passers in football. Daugherty: That there will be no surprises. These are two teams committed to execution. Neither is going to try to reinvent the wheel on Super Bowl Sunday. Whoever plays the best brand of their 'regular football' is going to win. Krueger: An Eagles passing game, which ranked 29th in yards per game and 32nd in pass attempts per game, surprises the general public with a few explosive plays they didn't see coming. The folks who equate raw passing totals to the overall quality of a team's offensive attack would be surprised to know that this season, the Eagles passing game ranked fourth in adjusted completion percentage on passes of 10-plus air yards (60.6 percent) and had the sixth-highest explosive play rate — plays that generated 20 or more yards — amongst teams this season (10.9 percent) through the air. It's also worth noting, per PFF, that the Chiefs tied with the Giants for the ninth-most explosive passing plays (54) this season. How do you see things playing out Sunday? Carter: I find it hard to imagine a game with sideways game script here. Like almost every Chiefs game, I think this comes down to the fourth quarter, and no one is better in late game situations than Mahomes. He's simply unbeatable in those scenarios. I say the Chiefs win 27-24. Dvorchak: The Chiefs win a tight, 27-20 game with a little magic from Mahomes and better execution in high-leverage spots. The haters cry 'rigged' when the best quarterback of all time out-plays his opponent, and one of the best coaches of all time out-coaches his opponent. Who could have seen this coming? Jackson: I see the Eagles sticking with the run against the Chiefs (unlike the Bills in the AFC Championship) and it being effective. If it's not, get ready for A.J Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. The game goes down to the wire, but the Eagles pull away late and beat the Chiefs 34-24. Daugherty: Like every Chiefs game in recent memory. They never really pull away, but the opposition never truly threatens. The final will look close. It will indeed *be* close. It just won't really feel that way. The Chiefs win some variation of a 24-21 ballgame. Krueger: The Chiefs had one 'legitimate' loss this season, which came in a 30-21 loss to the Bills in Week 11. It requires a near-perfect effort to beat the Chiefs. The Eagles execute well and have the pieces in place to bring down this Chiefs team on any given Sunday. That said, the Chiefs still hold the advantage at head coach and quarterback and are 60 minutes from making history. While they may not always be flashy, they are effective. I expect Reid and Mahomes to find counters to whatever the Eagles throw their way and walk away victorious in a 24-20 win.

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