Latest news with #DeutschePost
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) Shares Could Be 47% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
The projected fair value for Deutsche Post is €73.06 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Deutsche Post's €38.68 share price signals that it might be 47% undervalued The €43.19 analyst price target for DHL is 41% less than our estimate of fair value How far off is Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine. Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in Deutsche Post. Read for free now. We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €3.23b €3.09b €3.43b €4.27b €4.53b €4.72b €4.88b €5.01b €5.12b €5.22b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x5 Analyst x6 Analyst x6 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 4.16% Est @ 3.29% Est @ 2.68% Est @ 2.26% Est @ 1.96% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 6.5% €3.0k €2.7k €2.8k €3.3k €3.3k €3.2k €3.1k €3.0k €2.9k €2.8k ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €30b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.5%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €5.2b× (1 + 1.3%) ÷ (6.5%– 1.3%) = €100b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €100b÷ ( 1 + 6.5%)10= €53b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €83b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €38.7, the company appears quite good value at a 47% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Deutsche Post as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.218. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Deutsche Post Strength Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the German market. Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Deutsche Post, we've compiled three fundamental items you should explore: Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Deutsche Post that you should be aware of. Future Earnings: How does DHL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the XTRA every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Opinion: For its own good, and taxpayers' too, privatize Canada Post
Among the purported advantages of regular mail delivery is its predictability. These days, however, the only thing predictable about Canada Post is the frustration. The federal government's desperate solution to last year's mail strike — a back-to-work order that solved none of the underlying problems — is already unravelling. Pending the outcome of current negotiations, mail carriers could be back on strike starting May 22. Fortunately, there's a far better and more permanent solution to the endless labour woes at Canada Post: privatization. Around the world, postal services are suffering an existential crisis as texts, email and online bill payments have shoved mail volumes off a cliff. In Canada, letter mail is down 65 per cent over the past two decades. Making matters worse, for political reasons Ottawa has blocked Canada Post's efforts to rationalize its operations through service reductions or by shuttering unprofitable postal outlets. Since 2018 Canada Post has lost a cumulative $3 billion. Until now these losses have been sustained by drawing down capital reserves. But that can't go on forever. In January, Ottawa lent the Crown corporation $1 billion 'to maintain its solvency and ensure it can continue operations.' Bankruptcy is now a real possibility. If that happens, taxpayers will be on the hook for the entire mess. Ottawa could amend the national postal charter and end expensive daily delivery, door-to-door service and stand-alone post offices, all of which would reduce the employee head count substantially. Canada Post is also trying to diversify its income by offering banking services and getting into other quirky business lines. But the only way to truly insulate taxpayers from the looming financial crisis is to unload the whole operation. 'There's no particular reason why the government should be in charge of mail delivery,' says Vincent Geloso, a professor of economics at George Mason University in Virginia and senior economist at the Montreal Economic Institute. Public monopolies such as Canada Post inevitably deliver low-quality, expensive service, he observes. Liberalizing the mail business to allow private firms to compete and then selling off Canada Post wouldn't just improve service for Canadians, it would also protect them from having to bail out the Crown corporation if and when bankruptcy happens. For proof of the benefits of privatization, Geloso points to Europe, which has more than a decade's worth of experience with private mail delivery. The crowning example is Germany's highly-profitable and well-respected Deutsche Post. Last year it tied for top spot in rankings by the Universal Postal Union, a UN agency that rates the performance of 174 global postal operators. (Canada Post came 15th.) Not only does Deutsche Post deliver the mail quickly, efficiently and inexpensively, it makes money doing so. According to its most recent financial statements, DHL Group, which includes Deutsche Post and parcel carrier DHL, booked a net profit of $5.1 billion — and that's not a case of the parcel business carrying Deutsche Post: it made more than $1.2 billion from its own operations. Canada Post has never, ever had a year like that. Other notable European postal privatizations include Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Austria. Italy only partially privatized its post to begin with but is now considering selling the remainder to pay down government debt. Britain's lacklustre Royal Mail is often presented as a counter example, but its real problem is that its operations are still tightly controlled by government regulation rather than market forces. Even so, Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky recently paid the equivalent of C$6.7 billion to buy it. As for the overall European experience, postal reform expert Mateusz Chołodecki at the Centre for a Digital Society at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, says that after more than a decade of liberalization, 'for most Europeans there has been no impact, nothing has changed' with their perception of overall mail service. Except, of course, that any losses are now the responsibility of shareholders rather than taxpayers. The biggest obstacle to a successful mail privatization in Canada is the always-unreasonable Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW). Amidst the current floundering negotiations — and despite the obvious signs of impending financial catastrophe at Canada Post — the union recently unveiled a PR campaign that declares 'Hands Off My Post Office!' To solve the problem of union obstreperousness, Geloso recommends offering an initial round of shares exclusively to CUPW members. Not only would this make them partners in the concept, it would also transform Canada Post into a far more efficient company. 'All of a sudden, there would be an incentive (for union workers) to improve productivity and profitability,' Geloso said. A year or so later, the rest of the company could be put up for sale. To make Canada Post more attractive to investors, Geloso recommends abandoning many of the traditional aspects of Canadian mail delivery, including the single-price stamp for letter mail. 'We allow regional variation in prices for everything from food to insurance,' he said. 'Why should a stamp be any different?' William Watson: Free trade is being replaced by crony trade Opinion: Here's one growth problem we can fix without money Unless decisive action is taken quickly, Canada Post risks becoming a permanent burden on taxpayers. But that cheque is no longer in the mail. Peter Shawn Taylor is senior features editor at C2C Journal, where a longer version of this article first appeared.
Malaysian Reserve
17-05-2025
- Business
- Malaysian Reserve
Diebold Nixdorf Modernizes Deutsche Post Branches across Germany
New agreement includes rollout of POS systems and five-year service contract NORTH CANTON, Ohio, May 16, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Deutsche Post, Europe's largest postal service provider, has awarded Diebold Nixdorf (NYSE: DBD) a contract to renew the branch infrastructure in its approximately 13,000 locations across Germany. This also includes the rollout of new hardware systems for the branch counters and related services for at least five years. The new contract opens another chapter in the successful partnership between Deutsche Post and Diebold Nixdorf, which has lasted for a quarter of a century. Diebold Nixdorf will supply new hardware systems, consisting of the modular DN Series® BEETLE M2110 POS terminal. This technology is equipped with the latest-generation processor, which enables significant savings in energy consumption and CO2 emissions, as well as peripheral devices. Diebold Nixdorf is also responsible for the installation of up to 500 systems per week, scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2025. The subsequent services provided by Diebold Nixdorf include IMAC services (Install, Move, Add and Change), warranty processing, comprehensive reporting and services. Comment from Deutsche Post: 'Diebold Nixdorf is a reliable partner who always responds to our changing framework conditions and hardware requirements, as well as our branch processes and service needs. This new agreement confirms our long-standing, trustful cooperation. It was also important for us to rely on state-of-the-art technology along with innovative and reliable services. With Diebold Nixdorf's experience and expertise, we can offer our branch partners, customers and employees optimal solutions and maximum availability.' Leyla Feghhi, senior director Retail Sales in the DACH region at Diebold Nixdorf, said: 'We are very pleased that Deutsche Post continues to rely on our advanced technology solutions and the expertise we have gained from our successful relationship. With the rapid solution rollout and our innovative service, we are enabling high availability and ensuring that Deutsche Post branches run reliably and securely.' About Deutsche PostDeutsche Post is the largest postal service provider in Europe and the market leader in the German mail market. The Mail Communication, Dialog Marketing and Press Services product segments are essentially bundled under this business area. Deutsche Post's product and service offering includes the processing and delivery of physical documents as well as a broad digital portfolio in its product segments. The Deutsche Post brand belongs to Post & Parcel Germany, a division of the DHL Group. About Diebold NixdorfDiebold Nixdorf (NYSE: DBD), Incorporated automates, digitizes and transforms the way people bank and shop. As a partner to the majority of the world's top 100 financial institutions and top 25 global retailers, our integrated solutions connect digital and physical channels conveniently, securely and efficiently for millions of consumers each day. The company has a presence in more than 100 countries with approximately 21,000 employees worldwide. Visit for more information. X: @DieboldNixdorfLinkedIn: Facebook: DN-R
Finextra
16-05-2025
- Business
- Finextra
Deutsche Post picks Diebold Nixdorf for branch refresh
Deutsche Post, Europe's largest postal service provider, has awarded Diebold Nixdorf (NYSE: DBD) a contract to renew the branch infrastructure in its approximately 13,000 locations across Germany. 0 This content is provided by an external author without editing by Finextra. It expresses the views and opinions of the author. This also includes the rollout of new hardware systems for the branch counters and related services for at least five years. The new contract opens another chapter in the successful partnership between Deutsche Post and Diebold Nixdorf, which has lasted for a quarter of a century. Diebold Nixdorf will supply new hardware systems, consisting of the modular DN Series® BEETLE M2110 POS terminal. This technology is equipped with the latest-generation processor, which enables significant savings in energy consumption and CO2 emissions, as well as peripheral devices. Diebold Nixdorf is also responsible for the installation of up to 500 systems per week, scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2025. The subsequent services provided by Diebold Nixdorf include IMAC services (Install, Move, Add and Change), warranty processing, comprehensive reporting and services. Comment from Deutsche Post: "Diebold Nixdorf is a reliable partner who always responds to our changing framework conditions and hardware requirements, as well as our branch processes and service needs. This new agreement confirms our long-standing, trustful cooperation. It was also important for us to rely on state-of-the-art technology along with innovative and reliable services. With Diebold Nixdorf's experience and expertise, we can offer our branch partners, customers and employees optimal solutions and maximum availability." Leyla Feghhi, senior director Retail Sales in the DACH region at Diebold Nixdorf, said: "We are very pleased that Deutsche Post continues to rely on our advanced technology solutions and the expertise we have gained from our successful relationship. With the rapid solution rollout and our innovative service, we are enabling high availability and ensuring that Deutsche Post branches run reliably and securely."
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Diebold Nixdorf Modernizes Deutsche Post Branches across Germany
New agreement includes rollout of POS systems and five-year service contract NORTH CANTON, Ohio, May 16, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Deutsche Post, Europe's largest postal service provider, has awarded Diebold Nixdorf (NYSE: DBD) a contract to renew the branch infrastructure in its approximately 13,000 locations across Germany. This also includes the rollout of new hardware systems for the branch counters and related services for at least five years. The new contract opens another chapter in the successful partnership between Deutsche Post and Diebold Nixdorf, which has lasted for a quarter of a century. Diebold Nixdorf will supply new hardware systems, consisting of the modular DN Series® BEETLE M2110 POS terminal. This technology is equipped with the latest-generation processor, which enables significant savings in energy consumption and CO2 emissions, as well as peripheral devices. Diebold Nixdorf is also responsible for the installation of up to 500 systems per week, scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2025. The subsequent services provided by Diebold Nixdorf include IMAC services (Install, Move, Add and Change), warranty processing, comprehensive reporting and services. Comment from Deutsche Post: "Diebold Nixdorf is a reliable partner who always responds to our changing framework conditions and hardware requirements, as well as our branch processes and service needs. This new agreement confirms our long-standing, trustful cooperation. It was also important for us to rely on state-of-the-art technology along with innovative and reliable services. With Diebold Nixdorf's experience and expertise, we can offer our branch partners, customers and employees optimal solutions and maximum availability." Leyla Feghhi, senior director Retail Sales in the DACH region at Diebold Nixdorf, said: "We are very pleased that Deutsche Post continues to rely on our advanced technology solutions and the expertise we have gained from our successful relationship. With the rapid solution rollout and our innovative service, we are enabling high availability and ensuring that Deutsche Post branches run reliably and securely." About Deutsche PostDeutsche Post is the largest postal service provider in Europe and the market leader in the German mail market. The Mail Communication, Dialog Marketing and Press Services product segments are essentially bundled under this business area. Deutsche Post's product and service offering includes the processing and delivery of physical documents as well as a broad digital portfolio in its product segments. The Deutsche Post brand belongs to Post & Parcel Germany, a division of the DHL Group. About Diebold NixdorfDiebold Nixdorf (NYSE: DBD), Incorporated automates, digitizes and transforms the way people bank and shop. As a partner to the majority of the world's top 100 financial institutions and top 25 global retailers, our integrated solutions connect digital and physical channels conveniently, securely and efficiently for millions of consumers each day. The company has a presence in more than 100 countries with approximately 21,000 employees worldwide. Visit for more information. X: @DieboldNixdorfLinkedIn: Facebook: DN-R View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
