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Yahoo
25-04-2025
- Politics
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Exclusive-Myanmar junta defies quake ceasefire to continue deadly attacks, data shows
By Devjyot Ghoshal, Poppy McPherson and Pasit Kongkunakornkul BANGKOK (Reuters) - Myanmar's junta has kept up a deadly military campaign, including airstrikes and artillery assaults, despite announcing a ceasefire after a major earthquake killed thousands in March, according to the United Nations and data from a crisis monitor. The March 28 quake, the worst natural disaster to hit the impoverished nation in decades, triggered a multi-national relief effort to support hundreds of thousands already ravaged by conflict and repeated international calls to halt the fighting. On April 2, following similar moves by opposition armed groups, Myanmar's military announced a 20-day ceasefire to support humanitarian relief. On Tuesday it said the temporary cessation had been extended until April 30 after rare high-level talks led by Malaysia's premier. But unreported figures from the United Nations show that the fighting has continued unabated and a Reuters analysis of data provided by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project found the frequency of junta aerial attacks has increased since the ceasefire announcement, compared to the six months prior. A junta spokesman did not respond to multiple calls from Reuters seeking comment. Between March 28 and April 24, the military launched at least 207 attacks, including 140 airstrikes and 24 artillery barrages, according to data from the UN Human Rights Office, based on reports it had received. More than 172 attacks have occurred since the ceasefire, 73 of them in areas devastated by the earthquake. "It's business as usual," said James Rodehaver, Myanmar head for the United Nations Office on Human Rights. "The have involved stopping all military activity and repurposing your military to support the humanitarian response and that has not happened." Myanmar has been in crisis since the military seized power in February 2021, toppling the elected government of Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. A brutal junta crackdown on the opposition ignited a spiralling civil war, including in the previously peaceful central heartlands where protesters took up arms. CIVILIAN TARGETS Two weeks into the ceasefire, junta aircraft swooped over South Kan Ma Yaik village in southeastern Karen state on April 16, during Burmese new year celebrations, and dropped bombs that killed a pregnant woman and her unborn baby to the north of the settlement, an eyewitness told Reuters. "The first bomb exploded near her house. Then she braced her children for a second bomb and shrapnel hit her body," said the witness, who asked not to be named for fear of retribution. "All the children were bleeding all over." Reuters could not independently verify the witnesses' account but the ACLED data contains an entry for a junta attack on the village on April 16, including one fatality. In the six months before April 2, the junta every day conducted an average of 7.6 attacks using aircraft or drones that killed more than five people daily, including civilians, according to data provided by ACLED. Between April 2 and April 18, the military carried out an average of 9.7 aircraft or drone attacks every day, leaving more than six people dead each day, since the ceasefire was announced, ACLED data shows. In all, 105 people were killed by junta aerial attacks during this period. The data showed opposition groups only conducted three aerial attacks during the ceasefire, between April 2-18. Anti-junta groups in the country lack any conventional air force and rely on drones. In contrast, the Myanmar junta's air force includes Chinese and Russian-made fighter and ground attack aircraft, Russian attack helicopters and some heavy unmanned aerial vehicles, according to an International Institute for Strategic Studies report last year. The junta's aerial attacks since the quake have been in the Sagaing region and northern Shan state, where it is attempting to regain strategic positions, as well as in Kachin and Rakhine states, said ACLED Senior Analyst Su Mon. "The military is still conducting aerial strikes that target civilian populations," she said. In its ceasefire announcements, on April 2 and April 22, the junta said that it would retaliate against a range of actions by rebels, including recruitment and territorial expansion. In a few instances, the data indicated that the military was attacked by armed groups prior to launching an airstrike, the U.N's Rodehaver said. Referring to the junta, he said, "Whenever you get attacked by... small arms fire, your response is to launch airstrikes on an area and you end up killing a dozen people who were not involved in the fighting at all. Is that a ceasefire?"
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Myanmar junta chief joins Bangkok regional summit as earthquake toll tops 3,100
By Devjyot Ghoshal and Panu Wongcha-um BANGKOK (Reuters) - Myanmar's junta leader attended a regional summit in Bangkok on Friday, a week after a massive earthquake devastated parts of the impoverished war-torn country, killing more than 3,100, and spurring an appeal for help by the United Nations chief. Shunned by most world leaders since leading a 2021 coup that overthrew an elected government, Min Aung Hlaing's rare trip exploits a window opened by the earthquake to ramp up diplomacy at events such as the BIMSTEC summit in the Thai capital. On the sidelines, Min Aung Hlaing had two-way meetings with Thai premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Amid the quake recovery effort, the junta chief will talk about "the potential for cooperation ... to carry out rescue, relief and rehabilitation," the state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper said. The death toll from Friday's earthquake of magnitude 7.7, one of the strongest to hit the Southeast Asian nation in a century, climbed to 3,145, with more than 4,500 injured and more than 200 missing, the ruling junta said. "The earthquake has supercharged the suffering, with the monsoon season just around the corner," U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told reporters on Thursday, referring to civil strife unleashed by the coup. "I appeal for every effort to transform this tragic moment into an opportunity for the people of Myanmar." United Nations aid chief Tom Fletcher is set to arrive in Myanmar on Friday, followed by a visit by Julie Bishop, the United Nations' special envoy for the country. RARE INTERNATIONAL TRIP Min Aung Hlaing, who led an entourage of Myanmar officials, also met Nepal's prime minister on Thursday, state media said, ahead of the summit focused on technical and economic matters. He sat between the prime ministers of Bhutan and Sri Lanka at the head table during Thursday's dinner with heads of BIMSTEC nations, Thai government photographs show. In a post on X after meeting Min Aung Hlaing, India's Modi said cooperation on connectivity, capacity building and infrastructure development featured in their discussions. With the Thai prime minister, the junta leader discussed disaster prevention, transnational crime and repatriatiion of those pulled out of scam centres, Thai officials said. The summit is part of BIMSTEC or the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, which groups Thailand, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan. Even before the quake, millions had suffered in Myanmar's widening civil war, triggered by the coup that ousted the government of Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. It has decimated the mainly agrarian economy, driven more than 3.5 million people from their homes and crippled essential services such as healthcare. Myanmar's neighbours, such as China, India and Southeast Asian nations are among the countries that dispatched relief supplies and rescuers to aid the recovery effort in quake-hit areas home to about 28 million people. Extreme heat and forecast heavy rain could cause disease outbreaks among earthquake survivors camping in the open, as the risk of cholera grows in such areas, namely Mandalay, Sagaing and the capital of Naypyitaw. "Response efforts still face significant logistical challenges ... hampering the relief response," the World Food Programme said on Thursday. Hurdles range from debris and damaged roads and facilities to telecoms disruption, it said. This week the junta called a temporary ceasefire from Wednesday to April 22 in operations against armed opponents, reflecting moves by a major rebel alliance and Myanmar's shadow government that groups parts of the previous administration.
Yahoo
02-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Analysis-Myanmar's deadly earthquake brings diplomatic payoff for junta chief
By Devjyot Ghoshal and Panu Wongcha-um BANGKOK (Reuters) - Myanmar's deadliest natural disaster in years has strengthened the position of ruling general Min Aung Hlaing, by opening diplomatic channels closed for four years after his junta ousted an elected government to unleash a brutal civil war. Just before Friday's quake of magnitude 7.7 killed more than 2,700, the junta chief was readying for a rare foreign visit to a regional summit in Thailand, as aides worked the phones to arrange meetings with other leaders. It is still unclear if Min Aung Hlaing will attend the BISTRE grouping's summit in Bangkok this week, but the disaster has helped end his isolation by most world leaders over a war that displaced 3.5 million and decimated the economy. "The junta knows that regional powers jostling for influence in Myanmar, like India, China, and Russia would want to use this opportunity to strengthen their own toehold in the country," said Angshuman Choudhury, an analyst based in Singapore. "By publicly and directly engaging with regional capitals, it can demonstrate its supposed indispensability as Myanmar's primary public authority." A junta spokesman did not respond to telephone calls from Reuters to seek comment. In the past week, Min Aung Hlaing has spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim - conversations that have led to a flurry of international aid. Just weeks after the junta reaffirmed plans for a general election in December, one of the impoverished nation's strongest earthquakes in a century has opened a new window for its leader to engage with regional powers. The junta had steadily lost ground in the conflict sparked by the 2021 coup, suffering a string of battlefield defeats and piling unprecedented pressure on Min Aung Hlaing himself. Key allies such as China have backstopped the junta, with efforts such as pushing major anti-junta groups to stop fighting, but even Beijing had not entirely embraced the embattled general. He did not get an audience with Xi when he visited China in November for the first time since the coup, for example. But during a state visit to Moscow last month, Min Aung Hlaing held court with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, one of his earliest backers after the coup. "I would think he's getting like everything he ever dreamt of and more right now," said a diplomatic source in the commercial capital of Yangon, referring to the Moscow visit, the telephone call with Modi and a meeting of the ASEAN grouping. "He's back in the circle. He has a seat at the table." However, the junta is doing what it can to benefit from the crisis and deny assistance to civilians and opposition groups, said a second diplomatic source in the country. Millions of dollars in aid, relief supplies and hundreds of rescue workers from countries such as China, India, Russia and Southeast Asia, have flooded Myanmar since the quake, though the junta keeps up military operations despite ceasefire calls. The junta could exploit the crisis to strengthen its position in Myanmar's battlefield, Choudhury added. "The quake will complicate the resistance's fight and its ability to retain support from the local population." TIGHTROPE WALK Some regime hardliners believe the junta can continue with the help of a handful of allies, said Sihasak Phuangketkeow, a former Thai vice minister for foreign affairs who visited Myanmar last month. "They see the world order as shifting, and that there is a new pole with China, Russia and India," Sihasak told Reuters. "They think Myanmar may be able to thrive without other engagement." If Min Aung Hlaing were to attend this week's BIMSTEC summit, he would get a further opportunity for diplomatic validation, such as more engagement with India and Thailand. BIMSTEC, or the Bay of Bengal initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, comprises Thailand, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan. "What I got from my recent trip was that Min Aung Hlaing doesn't want to be just under China only," said Sihasak. "It is about how we can assert our own position. We should not let this opportunity to engage Myanmar slip by." In Bangkok, the junta chief could meet Modi, who has rushed aid and personnel to Myanmar since the quake, said three sources with knowledge of discussions. "Modi, particularly, has already indicated that he is willing to directly engage," said Choudhury, referring to the two leaders' call. The visit may also give Min Aung Hlaing a chance to meet Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai prime minister whom Malaysia's Anwar appointed a personal adviser in his capacity as chairman of ASEAN. Some analysts say Thailand is walking a tightrope by giving legitimacy to Min Aung Hlaing as he battles the armed resistance which has eroded his grip on Myanmar. "There's a nasty, brutal, violent civil war," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University. "Thailand has to be very careful because it has a long border with Myanmar and lots at stake."
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Politics
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Myanmar junta chief to join BIMSTEC leaders' summit in rare trip abroad
By Devjyot Ghoshal and Panu Wongcha-um BANGKOK (Reuters) - Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing will join a regional leaders' summit in Thailand next week where he is seeking high-level bilateral meetings, three sources with direct knowledge told Reuters, in a rare visit to a Southeast Asian country since seizing power in coup that led to a civil war. Min Aung Hlaing is the subject of widespread western sanctions and is barred from attending summits of the Southeast Asian bloc ASEAN due to the Myanmar military's failure to implement an agreed peace plan with the bloc. He will join the April 3-4 summit in Bangkok of the BIMSTEC grouping of mostly South Asian countries, where the Myanmar delegation is seeking bilateral meetings with leaders and top officials, according to the sources, who declined to be identified because they were not authorised to speak to media. The meetings being sought include ones with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the chief adviser of Bangladesh's interim government, Muhammed Yunus, the sources said. "They have been reaching out asking for meetings," one of the sources said, referring to Myanmar officials. A spokesperson for Myanmar's military government could not immediately be reached for comment. Asked by Reuters if the Myanmar general was attending, Thailand's foreign ministry said all leaders of BIMSTEC member countries have confirmed their attendance. ESCALATING CRISIS Myanmar has been in crisis since the military overthrew the elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, sparking mass protests that escalated into an armed rebellion against the junta. More than a third of the population is in need of humanitarian assistance, according to the United Nations. The trip to Thailand to join other leaders would be significant for Min Aung Hlaing, who has sought to gain legitimacy at home and abroad for his plans to return the country to democracy via an election that has been derided by critics as a sham to perpetuate army rule. The junta chief on Thursday said the election would be held in December, promising a free and fair vote and to transfer state power to the winning party. Min Aung Hlaing is regarded by many countries as a pariah as head of a military accused of committing widespread atrocities as it battles to hold power and contain a widening rebellion. The military denies wrongdoing. His trips overseas have been rare, mostly to Russia, which he visited this month, and to China late last year for a sub-regional summit. His travel could be limited further following an announcement in November by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court that a warrant for his arrest would be sought for crimes against humanity in the alleged persecution of the Rohingya, a mainly Muslim minority. Myanmar has denied the allegations. BIMSTEC, or the Bay of Bengal initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, includes Thailand, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan.
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Myanmar rebels disrupt China rare earth trade, sparking regional scramble
By Devjyot Ghoshal, Poppy McPherson, Amy Lv and Neha Arora BANGKOK (Reuters) - When armed rebels seized northern Myanmar's rare-earths mining belt in October, they dealt a blow to the country's embattled military junta - and wrested control of a key global resource. By capturing sites that produce roughly half of the world's heavy rare earths, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) rebels have been able to throttle the supply of minerals used in wind turbines and electric vehicles, sending prices of one key element skyward. The KIA is seeking leverage against neighbouring China, which supports the junta and has invested heavily in rare earths mining in Myanmar's Kachin state, according to two people familiar with the matter. Chinese imports of rare earth oxides and compounds from Myanmar dropped to 311 metric tons in February, down 89% compared to the year-ago period, according to Chinese customs data that hasn't been previously reported. Most of the fall came after October. Reuters spoke to nine people with knowledge of Myanmar's rare earths industry and its four-year civil war about turmoil in the mining belt. One of them described the move by the KIA, which is part of a patchwork of armed groups fighting military rule, as an attempt to drive a wedge between the junta and China. "They want to use rare earth reserves as a leverage in their negotiation with China," said Dan Seng Lawn, executive director of the non-profit Kachinland Research Centre, which studies Kachin socio-political issues. Three of the people also detailed previously unreported interest in the sector by India, China's regional rival, which they said in late 2024 sent officials from a state-owned rare earths mining and refining firm to Kachin. The KIA is one of the largest and oldest ethnic militias in Myanmar. It fights for the autonomy of the Kachin minority, a mostly Christian group who have long held grievances against the Bamar Buddhist majority. The group has imposed a hefty tax on the mostly Chinese-operated rare-earth miners working around Panwa and Chipwe towns in Kachin, according Dan Seng Lawn, whose institute is based in the state, and a Chinese mining analyst. China has been one of the staunchest international backers of Myanmar's military since it deposed a civilian-led government in 2021 and ignited a bloody civil war. Beijing continues to see the junta as a guarantor of stability along its frontier, though the military has been ejected from most of the borderlands since a major rebel offensive in 2023. A spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry said the department was not aware of the specifics of the situation in the mining belt but it continues to "actively promote peace talks and provide all possible support and assistance for the peace process in northern Myanmar." India's external affairs ministry, the KIA and a junta spokesperson did not return requests for comment. Bawn Myang Co Ltd, which the U.S. government previously identified as an operator of mines in the area, couldn't be reached. PRICE SPIKE Chinese spot prices of terbium oxide, whose supply is concentrated in Kachin, jumped 21.9% to 6,550 yuan per kg between late September and March 24, data from Shanghai Metals Market show. Prices of dysprosium oxide, which is also largely mined in Kachin but was in lower demand over the last six months, eased 3.2% to 1,665 yuan per kg during the same period. Most rare earths from Kachin are processed in China, so a protracted stalemate would have global implications. "A prolonged shutdown would likely lead to higher, potentially more volatile rare earth prices in China, and a reshaping of market dynamics in the near term," research firm Adamas Intelligence said in a February note. EXPORT PLUNGE Chinese miners started building up major operations in Kachin in the 2010s, after Beijing tightened regulations on domestic mines. Kachin's often unregulated mines steadily expanded after the 2021 coup with the tacit approval of the junta, according to the Global Witness non-profit. But the growth came at a heavy cost, ravaging the environment and leaving Kachin's hills pock-marked with leeching pools, according to witness accounts and satellite imagery. Since the KIA's takeover, a 20% tax imposed by the rebels has made it effectively impossible for local operators to run profitable mines. The KIA wants China to stop pushing it to set down arms against the junta and to recognise the rebels' de facto control of the border, said Dan Seng Lawn, adding that the parties had met at least twice in recent months. The KIA has full control of the border in areas where it operates and anti-junta groups rule most of the rest of Myanmar's frontier with China. Beijing appeared reluctant to accept the KIA's demands, though it risked its monopoly on Myanmar's rare earth reserves if it doesn't position itself pragmatically, Dan Seng Lawn said. Reopening the minerals sector would be a major financial lifeline to the rebels: Myanmar's heavy rare earths trade stood at around $1.4 billion in 2023, according to Global Witness. The KIA has told miners in Kachin it will now allow shipments of existing rare earth inventories to China, Reuters reported Thursday. But to resume operations at full capacity, the KIA needs an agreement with China, home to thousands of workers with the know-how, said Singapore-based rare-earths expert Thomas Kruemmer. "Without them, this won't work, full stop," he said. INDIA ALTERNATIVE? Amid the ongoing tussle, India has attempted to deepen its influence in Kachin, with which it also shares a border, according to Dan Seng Lawn and two people familiar with Indian official thinking. India's state-run mining and refining firm IREL in December sent a team to Kachin to study resources there, according to one of the Indian sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. Indian authorities have reservations about operating in an area with armed non-state actors, but the Kachin desire to diversify away from China and New Delhi's need for resources have pushed the two parties to talk, the Indian source said. IREL did not return requests for comment. An Indian delegation that included IREL also held an online meeting with the Kachins in December to discuss their interest in reopening the rare-earths sector, said Dan Seng Lawn, who attended the discussion. They were willing to pay higher prices than China, he said. Any India deal faces multiple obstacles, said Kruemmer and Dan Seng Lawn. There is only skeletal infrastructure along the mountainous and sparsely populated Kachin-India frontier, making it challenging for commodities to be moved from Myanmar to the neighbouring northeastern states of India. Those states are also far removed from India's manufacturing belts in the south and west. India also doesn't have the ability to commercially process the heavy rare earths and transform them into magnets used by industry, according to Kruemmer and the Indian source. Some 90% of the world's rare earths magnets are produced in China, which has brought the sector under tighter state control, followed by Japan. Nevertheless, if Beijing does not recognise the "changing power dynamics," Dan Seng Lawn said, the KIA "will have to open alternative options." (Additional reporting by Shoon Naing; Editing by Katerina Ang)
