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Time of India
18-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India VIX: Dips to 15 month low as markets remain stable; what it means
India's stock market has maintained its calm recently as the Volatility Index or VIX has fallen to a 15 month low. This means that recent market stability, lower volatility in the US, and reduced trading in derivatives have calmed investor nerves and made the overall market feel less risky. The India VIX remained flat on Thursday, closing at 11.2. Meanwhile, the benchmark Nifty 50 index dipped 100.60 points, or 0.40%, to end the session at 25,111. 'Indian markets are currently mirroring the US VIX, which is at a 7-8 month low, offering some relief to traders globally,' Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president, research, Religare Broking told ET. The firm noted that with few domestic triggers and most of the earnings season already factored in, the index continues to stay muted. Since the beginning of July, the Nifty has been trading within a narrow 25,000–25,500 range, failing to break out in the absence of meaningful catalysts. How does India VIX work? India VIX measures the expected volatility in the stock market over the next 30 days, based on Nifty options prices. It rises when markets are predicted to undergo sharp movements and drops during calmer, more stable periods. In the past month, the India VIX has declined by nearly 22%, even as the Nifty 50 has edged up by around 1%. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like People Aged 50-85 With No Life Insurance Could Get This Reassured Get Quote Undo Similarly, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market volatility in the US based on S&P 500 index options, dropped 19.7% over the same period. The subdued India VIX may also be partly due to lower participation in the options market. 'At first glance, this may seem like a sign of market confidence, but the reality points to suppressed hedging activity and reduced participation,' Dhupesh Dhameja, derivatives analyst at Samco Securities was quoted as saying. He highlighted that traders have largely avoided buying deep out-of-the-money put options, which has kept premiums low and suppressed implied volatility. Dhameja further added that a dip in activity from major global liquidity providers like Jane Street has resulted in lower trading volumes in derivatives and less depth in the options market, particularly in far out-of-the-money contracts, which usually indicate broader economic risk sentiment. While the India VIX is a useful tool for gauging sentiment, it tracks only the Nifty 50 and its large-cap constituents, and may not capture broader market dynamics. 'The market appears calm on surface, but history suggests that such low-volatility phases are often followed by sharp directional moves,' Dhameja cautioned. He added that while the trend may remain range-bound for now, any sudden spike in the VIX 'signal worth watching closely.' Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Economic Times
18-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India VIX falls to 15-month low on no sharp market swings
Agencies Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Mumbai: Volatility Index or India VIX-the fear gauge of the Indian stock market-has dropped to its lowest level in 15 months, as the absence of sharp swings of late, a decline in US volatility, and falling derivatives options volumes have eased risk sentiment. The India VIX remained flat and ended at 11.2 on Thursday. The benchmark Nifty 50 index fell 100.60 points or 0.40% to close at 25,111."Indian markets are currently mirroring the US VIX, which is at a 7-8 month low, offering some relief to traders globally," said Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president, research, Religare Broking. "With limited domestic triggers and much of the earnings season already priced in, the index remains subdued."Since the start of July, Nifty has traded in a narrow 25,000-25,500 range, failing to break out in the absence of triggers. India VIX is a volatility index based on Nifty option prices. It uses the best bid-ask prices of Nifty options to calculate expected market volatility over the next 30 days. The index typically rises when traders expect bigger market swings and falls when markets appear the last month, India VIX is down almost 22%, whereas the benchmark Nifty 50 has edged up 1%. The Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, which measures volatility based on US S&P 500 index options, is also down 19.7% over the past month. The drop in VIX could also be on account of a fall in trader participation in Nifty options."At first glance, this may seem like a sign of market confidence, but the reality points to suppressed hedging activity and reduced participation," said Dhupesh Dhameja, derivatives analyst, Samco Securities. "Traders have largely avoided buying deep out-of-the-money puts, keeping option premiums subdued and implied volatility low." Dhameja said reduced activity of global liquidity providers like Jane Street has led to lower derivative volumes and thinner option market depth, especially in far out-of-the-money contracts, which typically reflect macro risk VIX may not fully reflect what is happening across the market, as it tracks only the benchmark Nifty 50 and its large-cap constituents. "The market appears calm on surface, but history suggests that such low-volatility phases are often followed by sharp directional moves," said Dhameja. He said that for now, the trend may stay range-bound, but any spike in VIX could be a "signal worth watching closely."
News18
25-05-2025
- Business
- News18
Nifty Outlook This Week: 25,150 Breakout Possible? All Eyes On GDP, Fed Signals, And Global Cues
Last Updated: Nifty Outlook This Week: With multiple data releases lined up and global uncertainty simmering, investors should brace for heightened volatility. Nifty Outlook This Week: The Indian stock market experienced heightened volatility this week, largely due to the turbulence in the global bond markets. Both the Nifty and Sensex slipped nearly 0.7% each, settling at 24,853 and 81,721 respectively. This came after a robust 4% rally in the prior week, suggesting some cooling off after a sharp move. In contrast, the Bank Nifty index edged up by 43 points buoyed by positive sentiments in banking heavyweights. Despite the dip, Nifty continues to trade above key moving averages, including the 21-day and 200-day EMAs, pointing to underlying strength in the broader trend. The derivatives setup remains moderately bullish, with the OI Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for Nifty holding above 1.0, while the Bank Nifty PCR stands at 0.86, signaling a more neutral tone. 'The Nifty has safeguarded its swing low and staged a strong recovery, sending a loud signal: bulls are yet unwilling to step aside," says Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst at Samco Securities Limited. He notes that the price structure continues to form higher tops and bottoms, remaining above the 20-day EMA — a clear sign of an upward bias. According to Dhameja, 24,500 is a crucial support level, bolstered by aggressive Put writing. On the upside, the 24,800–25,000 zone is packed with resistance and Call buildup. A breakout above 25,150 could trigger a swift rally toward 25,500, he adds. However, as long as the index holds above 24,500, dip-buying is likely to stay dominant, even as volatility brews under the surface. With long unwinding still in progress and FIIs turning more cautious, the analyst warns that next week may test traders' patience, as markets lack a decisive direction and are navigating through noise in search of stronger cues. The coming week is expected to be influenced by a blend of global and domestic developments, according to Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. 1. Fed Chair Powell's Speech – May 26 All eyes will be on Jerome Powell, who will deliver a speech on Monday, potentially offering fresh insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Traders will look for hints on future rate decisions, especially with possible shifts in the U.S. political landscape. 2. FOMC Minutes – May 28 On Wednesday, the minutes from the May 6–7 FOMC meeting will be released, providing detail on the Fed's discussion around the 4.25%–4.50% policy rate, inflation trends, and growth concerns. This will be crucial in gauging how policymakers are assessing the evolving economic environment. 3. India Industrial Data – May 28 India's Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data for April will also be released mid-week, with forecasts at 3.2% and 3.1% (YoY), respectively. These indicators will give a sense of how India's manufacturing base is holding up. 4. US Q1 GDP Estimate and Jobless Claims – May 29 The second estimate for US GDP growth (Q1 2025) is expected at -0.3%, confirming a mild contraction. Alongside, the Initial Jobless Claims report will provide insights into labor market resilience, which is key for rate outlook. 5. India Q1 FY25 GDP – May 30 A major domestic highlight will be the release of India's Q1 FY25 GDP data, forecasted at 6.0% YoY. A stronger-than-expected reading could reaffirm confidence in India's economic momentum and support bullish sentiment in equity markets. 6. US Personal Income and Spending – May 30 The US Personal Income and Spending data for March — expected at 0.5% and 0.4% MoM, respectively — will also help assess consumer strength, a key driver of economic growth. 7. China Manufacturing PMI – May 31 To wrap up the week, China's NBS Manufacturing PMI will be released on Saturday. With a forecast of 48.6, the reading will be watched closely for signs of continued weakness in China's factory activity. What to Expect With multiple data releases lined up and global uncertainty simmering, investors should brace for heightened volatility. While Nifty's near-term structure remains intact above 24,500, the 25,000–25,150 range remains a make-or-break zone for fresh momentum. Looking ahead, investors will be closely watching the upcoming Indian GDP figures, along with U.S. Big budget, inflation data and weekly jobless claims, to gauge the strength and trajectory of economic recovery both domestically and globally, said Vinod Nair, Geojit Investments Ltd.
Time of India
15-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Stocks to buy today: M&M, ONGC among top 7 trading ideas for May 15, 2025
The Indian market is expected to consolidate on Thursday, tracking subdued global cues. India VIX dropped over 5% on Wednesday to close at 17.18. The Nifty50's inability to sustain higher levels signals the presence of strong sellers at elevated zones. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Bangladesh: Unsold Sofas at Bargain Prices (View Current Prices) Sofas | Search Ads Search Now Undo 'The 24,500–24,400 pocket, which also houses the short-term 10-day EMA, has now turned into a make-or-break patch. Until Nifty holds above this belt, the broader picture remains intact,' said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities. 'However, the psychological wall at 25,000 still looms large and continues to block upside attempts,' he added. A breakout on either side of this narrow range could steer the next directional move. 'As long as Nifty floats above 24,400, the primary structure stays intact. Dips continue to attract buying interest, making them rewarding opportunities. Immediate resistance is now capped around the 24,800–25,000 corridor,' Dhameja noted. Live Events 'A strong close above this ceiling could trigger a fresh round of short-covering, potentially driving the index toward the 25,200–25,300 zone. On the downside, a slide below 24,500 might induce mild profit-taking down to 24,370—a level likely to attract renewed buying,' he added. Stocks to watch for short-term trading Expert: Jaynit Vora, CMT – Research Analyst, IIFL (to ET Bureau) Max Healthcare Institute : Buy | Target: Rs 1,228 | Stop Loss: Rs 1,142 Deepak Fertilisers : Buy | Target: Rs 1,398 | Stop Loss: Rs 1,295 Mphasis : Buy | Target: Rs 2,700 | Stop Loss: Rs 2,495 F&O Strategy M&M (29 May Expiry): Buy | Target: Rs 3,266 | Stop Loss: Rs 2,990 Expert: Kunal Bothra – Market Expert (to ET Now) ONGC : Buy | Target: Rs 255 | Stop Loss: Rs 240 Bharat Forge : Buy | Target: Rs 1,320 | Stop Loss: Rs 1,200 Mphasis : Buy | Target: Rs 2,650 | Stop Loss: Rs 2,500 ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
