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Los Angeles Times
16 hours ago
- General
- Los Angeles Times
FEMA removed dozens of Camp Mystic buildings from 100-year flood map before expansion, records show
Federal regulators repeatedly granted appeals to remove Camp Mystic's buildings from their 100-year flood map, loosening oversight as the camp operated and expanded in a dangerous flood plain in the years before rushing waters swept away children and counselors, a review by The Associated Press found. The Federal Emergency Management Agency included the prestigious girls' summer camp in a 'Special Flood Hazard Area' in its National Flood Insurance map for Kerr County in 2011, which means it was required to have flood insurance and faced tighter regulation on any future construction projects. That designation means an area is likely to be inundated during a 100-year flood — one severe enough that it only has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. Located in a low-lying area along the Guadalupe River in a region known as flash flood alley, Camp Mystic lost at least 27 campers and counselors and longtime owner Dick Eastland when historic floodwaters tore through its property before dawn on July 4. The flood was far more severe than the 100-year event envisioned by FEMA, experts said, and moved so quickly in the middle of the night that it caught many off guard in a county that lacked a warning system. But Syracuse University associate professor Sarah Pralle, who has extensively studied FEMA's flood map determinations, said it was 'particularly disturbing' that a camp in charge of the safety of so many young people would receive exemptions from basic flood regulation. 'It's a mystery to me why they weren't taking proactive steps to move structures away from the risk, let alone challenging what seems like a very reasonable map that shows these structures were in the 100-year flood zone,' she said. Camp Mystic didn't respond to emails seeking comment and calls to it rang unanswered. The camp has called the flood an 'unimaginable tragedy' and added in a statement Thursday that it had restored power for the purpose of communicating with its supporters. In response to an appeal, FEMA in 2013 amended the county's flood map to remove 15 of the camp's buildings from the hazard area. Records show that those buildings were part of the 99-year-old Camp Mystic Guadalupe, which was devastated by last week's flood. After further appeals, FEMA removed 15 more Camp Mystic structures in 2019 and 2020 from the designation. Those buildings were located on nearby Camp Mystic Cypress Lake, a sister site that opened to campers in 2020 as part of a major expansion and suffered less damage in the flood. Campers have said the cabins at Cypress Lake withstood significant damage, but those nicknamed 'the flats' at the Guadalupe River camp were inundated. Experts say Camp Mystic's requests to amend the FEMA map could have been an attempt to avoid the requirement to carry flood insurance, to lower the camp's insurance premiums or to pave the way for renovating or adding new structures under less costly regulations. Pralle said the appeals were not surprising because communities and property owners have used them successfully to shield specific properties from regulation. Regardless of FEMA's determinations, the risk was obvious. At least 12 structures at Camp Mystic Guadalupe were fully within FEMA's 100-year flood plain, and a few more were partially in that zone, according to an AP analysis of data provided by First Street, a data science company that specializes in modeling climate risk. Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications at First Street, said FEMA's flood insurance map underestimates flood risks. That's because it fails to take into account the effects of heavy precipitation on smaller waterways such as streams and creeks. First Street's model puts nearly all of Camp Mystic Guadalupe at risk during a 100-year flood. The buildings at the newer Cypress Lake site are farther from the south fork of the flood-prone river but adjacent to Cypress Creek. FEMA's flood plain doesn't consider the small waterway a risk. However, First Street's model, which takes into account heavy rain and runoff reaching the creek, shows that the majority of the Cypress Lake site lies within an area that is at risk during a 100-year flood. In a statement, FEMA downplayed the significance of the flood map amendments. 'Flood maps are snapshots in time designed to show minimum standards for floodplain management and the highest risk areas for flood insurance,' the agency wrote. 'They are not predictions of where it will flood, and they don't show where it has flooded before.' Property owners challenging FEMA's map designations hire engineers to conduct detailed studies to show where they believe the 100-year flood plain should actually be drawn. That is a 'pretty arduous process' that can lead to more accurate maps while making it easier for future construction, said Chris Steubing, executive director of the Texas Floodplain Management Association, an industry group that represents floodplain managers. Pralle, who reviewed the amendments for AP, noted that some of the exempted properties were within 2 feet (0.6 meters) of FEMA's flood plain by the camp's revised calculations, which she said left almost no margin for error. She said her research shows that FEMA approves about 90% of map amendment requests, and the process may favor the wealthy and well-connected. A study she published in 2021 with researcher Devin Lea analyzed more than 20,000 buildings that had been removed from FEMA flood maps. It found that the amendments occurred more often in places where property values were higher, more white people lived and buildings were newer. FEMA had cautioned in its amendments that other parts of Camp Mystic remained on the flood map, and that 'any future construction or substantial improvement' would be subject to flood plain management regulations. County officials not only allowed the camp to keep operating, but to dramatically expand. Considered Texas royalty after decades of taking care of the daughters of elite families, Camp Mystic owners Dick and Tweety Eastland cited the 'tremendous success' of their original camp in explaining the need for a second site nearby. The expansion included new cabins and a dining hall, chapel, archery range and more. The camp had 557 campers and more than 100 staffers between its two locations when a state licensing agency conducted an inspection on July 2, two days before the tragedy, records show. FEMA referred questions about the expansion to local officials, who didn't reply to messages seeking comment. Steubing, a longtime municipal engineer in Texas, said the rain and flooding that hit Kerr County in a matter of hours were so much more intense than anything in its history that it's hard to call the flood plain management a failure. Local officials likely believed they were following existing regulations when they allowed the camp to keep growing, but 'then Mother Nature set a new standard,' he said. 'You could have built things 2 feet (0.6 meters) higher, 3 feet (0.9 meters) higher, and they still might have gotten taken down,' he said. Foley, Keller, and Mustian write for the Associated Press. Associated Press reporter Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.
The Independent
16 hours ago
- General
- The Independent
FEMA let Camp Mystic operate in 100-year flood zone despite deadly warnings for years: ‘Particularly disturbing'
Federal regulators repeatedly approved appeals to remove Camp Mystic's buildings from their 100-year flood map, easing oversight as the camp operated and expanded in a hazardous floodplain in the years leading up to the central Texas flash floods of July 4, according to new reporting by The Associated Press. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) designated the prestigious girls' summer camp as being in a 'Special Flood Hazard Area' on its National Flood Insurance map for Kerr County in 2011, which meant it was required to have flood insurance and faced stricter regulations on any future construction projects. That designation indicates an area is likely to flood during a 100-year event, defined as a severe flood with only a one percent chance of occurring each year. Syracuse University associate professor Sarah Pralle, who has extensively studied FEMA's flood map determinations, said it was 'particularly disturbing' that a camp responsible for the safety of so many young people would receive exemptions from basic flood regulations. Situated in a low-lying area along the Guadalupe River in a region known as flash flood alley, Camp Mystic lost at least 27 campers and counselors, along with longtime owner Dick Eastland, when historic floodwaters tore through its property just before dawn over a week ago. The flood was much more severe than the 100-year event predicted by FEMA, according to experts, and moved so quickly in the middle of the night that it caught many people off guard in a county without a warning system. 'It's a mystery to me why they weren't taking proactive steps to move structures away from the risk, let alone challenging what seems like a very reasonable map that shows these structures were in the 100-year flood zone,' said Pralle. Camp Mystic didn't respond to emails seeking comment, and attempts by the AP to contact staff by phone went unanswered. The camp has described the flood as an 'unimaginable tragedy' and added in a statement on Thursday that it had restored power to communicate with its supporters. In response to an appeal, FEMA amended the county's flood map in 2013 to remove 15 of the camp's buildings from the hazard zone. Records indicate that those buildings were part of the 99-year-old Camp Mystic Guadalupe, which was destroyed by last week's flood. After additional appeals, FEMA removed 15 more structures at Camp Mystic from the designation in 2019 and 2020. These buildings were located at nearby Camp Mystic Cypress Lake, a sister site that opened to campers in 2020 as part of a major expansion and experienced less flood damage. Campers have said the cabins at Cypress Lake endured significant damage, but those called "the flats' at the Guadalupe River camp were submerged. Experts say Camp Mystic's efforts to change the FEMA map may have aimed to avoid flood insurance requirements, reduce insurance costs, or make it easier to renovate or build new structures under less strict regulations. Pralle noted that the appeals were not surprising, as communities and property owners have often used them successfully to protect specific properties from regulation. Regardless of FEMA's findings, the risk was clear, as at least 12 structures at Camp Mystic Guadalupe were fully within FEMA's 100-year flood plain, with a few more partially in that zone, according to an AP analysis of data provided by First Street, a data science company specializing in climate risk modeling. Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications at First Street, said FEMA's flood insurance map underestimates flood risks because it doesn't account for the effects of heavy rainfall on smaller waterways, such as streams and creeks. First Street's model indicates that nearly all of Camp Mystic Guadalupe faces risk during a 100-year flood. The buildings at the newer Cypress Lake site are farther from the south fork of the flood-prone river but are adjacent to Cypress Creek. FEMA's floodplain does not consider the small waterway a risk. However, First Street's model, which factors in heavy rain and runoff reaching the creek, shows that most of the Cypress Lake site falls within an area with a 1% chance of flooding in any given year. In a statement to the AP, FEMA downplayed the significance of the flood map amendments: 'Flood maps are snapshots in time designed to show minimum standards for floodplain management and the highest risk areas for flood insurance.' 'They are not predictions of where it will flood, and they don't show where it has flooded before,' the agency said. Property owners challenging FEMA's maps hire engineers for detailed studies to argue where the 100-year floodplain should be, a complex process that can improve map accuracy and facilitate future construction. Pralle, who reviewed the amendments for AP, noted that some of the exempted properties were within two feet of FEMA's flood plain according to the camp's revised calculations, which she said left almost no margin for error. She stated that her research indicates FEMA approves approximately 90% of map amendment requests, and the process might favor the wealthy and well-connected. FEMA warned in its amendments that other parts of Camp Mystic remained on the flood map, and that 'any future construction or substantial improvement' would be subject to flood plain management regulations. County officials not only allowed the camp to continue operating but also enabled a significant expansion, with Camp Mystic owners Dick and Tweety Eastland citing the 'tremendous success' of their original camp to justify the need for a second nearby site. The expansion included new cabins, a dining hall, a chapel, an archery range, and more. Records show that the camp had 557 campers and over 100 staff members across its two locations when a state licensing agency inspected on July 2, two days before the tragedy. Chris Steubing, executive director of the Texas Floodplain Management Association, an industry group that represents floodplain managers, said the rain and flooding that hit Kerr County in a matter of hours were so much more intense than anything in its history that it's hard to call the floodplain management a failure. Local officials likely believed they were following existing regulations when they allowed the camp to keep growing, but 'then Mother Nature set a new standard,' Steubing said. 'You could have built things two feet higher, three feet higher, and they still might have gotten taken down,' he added. As of Saturday, July 12, a total of 129 people have been confirmed dead from the July 4 flood. A week later and approximately 160 are still believed to be missing.
Yahoo
18 hours ago
- General
- Yahoo
FEMA removed dozens of Camp Mystic buildings from 100-year flood map before expansion, records show
Federal regulators repeatedly granted appeals to remove Camp Mystic's buildings from their 100-year flood map, loosening oversight as the camp operated and expanded in a dangerous flood plain in the years before rushing waters swept away children and counselors, a review by The Associated Press found. The Federal Emergency Management Agency included the prestigious girls' summer camp in a 'Special Flood Hazard Area' in its National Flood Insurance map for Kerr County in 2011, which means it was required to have flood insurance and faced tighter regulation on any future construction projects. That designation means an area is likely to be inundated during a 100-year flood — one severe enough that it only has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. Located in a low-lying area along the Guadalupe River in a region known as flash flood alley, Camp Mystic lost at least 27 campers and counselors and longtime owner Dick Eastland when historic floodwaters tore through its property before dawn on July 4. The flood was far more severe than the 100-year event envisioned by FEMA, experts said, and moved so quickly in the middle of the night that it caught many off guard in a county that lacked a warning system. But Syracuse University associate professor Sarah Pralle, who has extensively studied FEMA's flood map determinations, said it was 'particularly disturbing' that a camp in charge of the safety of so many young people would receive exemptions from basic flood regulation. 'It's a mystery to me why they weren't taking proactive steps to move structures away from the risk, let alone challenging what seems like a very reasonable map that shows these structures were in the 100-year flood zone,' she said. Camp Mystic didn't respond to emails seeking comment and calls to it rang unanswered. The camp has called the flood an 'unimaginable tragedy' and added in a statement Thursday that it had restored power for the purpose of communicating with its supporters. FEMA exempted buildings at old and new sites In response to an appeal, FEMA in 2013 amended the county's flood map to remove 15 of the camp's buildings from the hazard area. Records show that those buildings were part of the 99-year-old Camp Mystic Guadalupe, which was devastated by last week's flood. After further appeals, FEMA removed 15 more Camp Mystic structures in 2019 and 2020 from the designation. Those buildings were located on nearby Camp Mystic Cypress Lake, a sister site that opened to campers in 2020 as part of a major expansion and suffered less damage in the flood. Campers have said the cabins at Cypress Lake withstood significant damage, but those nicknamed "the flats' at the Guadalupe River camp were inundated. Experts say Camp Mystic's requests to amend the FEMA map could have been an attempt to avoid the requirement to carry flood insurance, to lower the camp's insurance premiums or to pave the way for renovating or adding new structures under less costly regulations. Pralle said the appeals were not surprising because communities and property owners have used them successfully to shield specific properties from regulation. Analysis shows flood risks at both camp sites Regardless of FEMA's determinations, the risk was obvious. At least 12 structures at Camp Mystic Guadalupe were fully within FEMA's 100-year flood plain, and a few more were partially in that zone, according to an AP analysis of data provided by First Street, a data science company that specializes in modeling climate risk. Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications at First Street, said FEMA's flood insurance map underestimates flood risks. That's because it fails to take into account the effects of heavy precipitation on smaller waterways such as streams and creeks. First Street's model puts nearly all of Camp Mystic Guadalupe at risk during a 100-year flood. The buildings at the newer Cypress Lake site are farther from the south fork of the flood-prone river but adjacent to Cypress Creek. FEMA's flood plain doesn't consider the small waterway a risk. However, First Street's model, which takes into account heavy rain and runoff reaching the creek, shows that the majority of the Cypress Lake site lies within an area that has a 1% chance of flooding in any given year. In a statement, FEMA downplayed the significance of the flood map amendments. 'Flood maps are snapshots in time designed to show minimum standards for floodplain management and the highest risk areas for flood insurance,' the agency wrote. 'They are not predictions of where it will flood, and they don't show where it has flooded before.' An 'arduous' appeal process can help property owners Property owners challenging FEMA's map designations hire engineers to conduct detailed studies to show where they believe the 100-year flood plain should actually be drawn. That is a 'pretty arduous process' that can lead to more accurate maps while making it easier for future construction, said Chris Steubing, executive director of the Texas Floodplain Management Association, an industry group that represents floodplain managers. Pralle, who reviewed the amendments for AP, noted that some of the exempted properties were within 2 feet (0.6 meters) of FEMA's flood plain by the camp's revised calculations, which she said left almost no margin for error. She said her research shows that FEMA approves about 90% of map amendment requests, and the process may favor the wealthy and well-connected. A study she published in 2021 with researcher Devin Lea analyzed more than 20,000 buildings that had been removed from FEMA flood maps. It found that the amendments occurred more often in places where property values were higher, more white people lived and buildings were newer. Camp expanded after 'tremendous success' FEMA had cautioned in its amendments that other parts of Camp Mystic remained on the flood map, and that 'any future construction or substantial improvement' would be subject to flood plain management regulations. County officials not only allowed the camp to keep operating, but to dramatically expand. Considered Texas royalty after decades of taking care of the daughters of elite families, Camp Mystic owners Dick and Tweety Eastland cited the 'tremendous success' of their original camp in explaining the need for a second site nearby. The expansion included new cabins and a dining hall, chapel, archery range and more. The camp had 557 campers and more than 100 staffers between its two locations when a state licensing agency conducted an inspection on July 2, two days before the tragedy, records show. FEMA referred questions about the expansion to local officials, who didn't reply to messages seeking comment. Steubing, a longtime municipal engineer in Texas, said the rain and flooding that hit Kerr County in a matter of hours were so much more intense than anything in its history that it's hard to call the flood plain management a failure. Local officials likely believed they were following existing regulations when they allowed the camp to keep growing, but 'then Mother Nature set a new standard," he said. 'You could have built things 2 feet (0.6 meters) higher, 3 feet (0.9 meters) higher, and they still might have gotten taken down,' he said. ___ Associated Press reporter Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.
New York Post
18 hours ago
- General
- New York Post
FEMA removed dozens of Camp Mystic buildings from 100-year flood map before expansion: records
Federal regulators repeatedly granted appeals to remove Camp Mystic's buildings from their 100-year flood map, loosening oversight as the camp operated and expanded in a dangerous flood plain in the years before rushing waters swept away children and counselors, a review by The Associated Press found. The Federal Emergency Management Agency included the prestigious girls' summer camp in a 'Special Flood Hazard Area' in its National Flood Insurance map for Kerr County in 2011, which means it was required to have flood insurance and faced tighter regulation on any future construction projects. That designation means an area is likely to be inundated during a 100-year flood — one severe enough that it only has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. 5 Federal regulators granted appeals to remove Camp Mystic's buildings from their 100-year flood map, loosening oversight prior to the recent floods in Texas. AP Located in a low-lying area along the Guadalupe River in a region known as flash flood alley, Camp Mystic lost at least 27 campers and counselors and longtime owner Dick Eastland when historic floodwaters tore through its property before dawn on July 4. The flood was far more severe than the 100-year event envisioned by FEMA, experts said, and moved so quickly in the middle of the night that it caught many off guard in a county that lacked a warning system. But Syracuse University associate professor Sarah Pralle, who has extensively studied FEMA's flood map determinations, said it was 'particularly disturbing' that a camp in charge of the safety of so many young people would receive exemptions from basic flood regulation. 'It's a mystery to me why they weren't taking proactive steps to move structures away from the risk, let alone challenging what seems like a very reasonable map that shows these structures were in the 100-year flood zone,' she said. Camp Mystic didn't respond to emails seeking comment and calls to it rang unanswered. The camp has called the flood an 'unimaginable tragedy' and added in a statement Thursday that it had restored power for the purpose of communicating with its supporters. 5 Camp Mystic, in a low-lying area along the Guadalupe River, lost at least 27 campers, counselors and owner Dick Eastland. AP FEMA exempted buildings at old and new sites In response to an appeal, FEMA in 2013 amended the county's flood map to remove 15 of the camp's buildings from the hazard area. Records show that those buildings were part of the 99-year-old Camp Mystic Guadalupe, which was devastated by last week's flood. After further appeals, FEMA removed 15 more Camp Mystic structures in 2019 and 2020 from the designation. Those buildings were located on nearby Camp Mystic Cypress Lake, a sister site that opened to campers in 2020 as part of a major expansion and suffered less damage in the flood. Every morning, the NY POSTcast offers a deep dive into the headlines with the Post's signature mix of politics, business, pop culture, true crime and everything in between. Subscribe here! Campers have said the cabins at Cypress Lake withstood significant damage, but those nicknamed 'the flats' at the Guadalupe River camp were inundated. Experts say Camp Mystic's requests to amend the FEMA map could have been an attempt to avoid the requirement to carry flood insurance, to lower the camp's insurance premiums or to pave the way for renovating or adding new structures under less costly regulations. Pralle said the appeals were not surprising because communities and property owners have used them successfully to shield specific properties from regulation. 5 Campers have said the cabins at Cypress Lake withstood significant damage, but 'the flats' at the Guadalupe River camp were inundated. AP Analysis shows flood risks at both camp sites Regardless of FEMA's determinations, the risk was obvious. At least 12 structures at Camp Mystic Guadalupe were fully within FEMA's 100-year flood plain, and a few more were partially in that zone, according to an AP analysis of data provided by First Street, a data science company that specializes in modeling climate risk. Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications at First Street, said FEMA's flood insurance map underestimates flood risks. That's because it fails to take into account the effects of heavy precipitation on smaller waterways such as streams and creeks. First Street's model puts nearly all of Camp Mystic Guadalupe at risk during a 100-year flood. Follow The Post's coverage on the deadly Texas flooding The buildings at the newer Cypress Lake site are farther from the south fork of the flood-prone river but adjacent to Cypress Creek. FEMA's flood plain doesn't consider the small waterway a risk. However, First Street's model, which takes into account heavy rain and runoff reaching the creek, shows that the majority of the Cypress Lake site lies within an area that has a 1% chance of flooding in any given year. In a statement, FEMA downplayed the significance of the flood map amendments. 5 Data science company First Street has a model that shows that the majority of the Cypress Lake site lies within an area that has a 1% chance of flooding in any given year. AP 'Flood maps are snapshots in time designed to show minimum standards for floodplain management and the highest risk areas for flood insurance,' the agency wrote. 'They are not predictions of where it will flood, and they don't show where it has flooded before.' An 'arduous' appeal process can help property owners Property owners challenging FEMA's map designations hire engineers to conduct detailed studies to show where they believe the 100-year flood plain should actually be drawn. That is a 'pretty arduous process' that can lead to more accurate maps while making it easier for future construction, said Chris Steubing, executive director of the Texas Floodplain Management Association, an industry group that represents floodplain managers. Pralle, who reviewed the amendments for AP, noted that some of the exempted properties were within 2 feet (0.6 meters) of FEMA's flood plain by the camp's revised calculations, which she said left almost no margin for error. She said her research shows that FEMA approves about 90% of map amendment requests, and the process may favor the wealthy and well-connected. A study she published in 2021 with researcher Devin Lea analyzed more than 20,000 buildings that had been removed from FEMA flood maps. It found that the amendments occurred more often in places where property values were higher, more white people lived and buildings were newer. Camp expanded after 'tremendous success' FEMA had cautioned in its amendments that other parts of Camp Mystic remained on the flood map, and that 'any future construction or substantial improvement' would be subject to flood plain management regulations. 5 Aerial photo of the buildings at Camp Mystic on Thursday. AP County officials not only allowed the camp to keep operating, but to dramatically expand. Considered Texas royalty after decades of taking care of the daughters of elite families, Camp Mystic owners Dick and Tweety Eastland cited the 'tremendous success' of their original camp in explaining the need for a second site nearby. The expansion included new cabins and a dining hall, chapel, archery range and more. The camp had 557 campers and more than 100 staffers between its two locations when a state licensing agency conducted an inspection on July 2, two days before the tragedy, records show. FEMA referred questions about the expansion to local officials, who didn't reply to messages seeking comment. Steubing, a longtime municipal engineer in Texas, said the rain and flooding that hit Kerr County in a matter of hours were so much more intense than anything in its history that it's hard to call the flood plain management a failure. Local officials likely believed they were following existing regulations when they allowed the camp to keep growing, but 'then Mother Nature set a new standard,' he said. 'You could have built things 2 feet (0.6 meters) higher, 3 feet (0.9 meters) higher, and they still might have gotten taken down,' he said.
CNN
18 hours ago
- General
- CNN
FEMA removed dozens of Camp Mystic buildings from 100-year flood map before expansion, records show
Federal regulators repeatedly granted appeals to remove Camp Mystic's buildings from their 100-year flood map, loosening oversight as the camp operated and expanded in a dangerous flood plain in the years before rushing waters swept away children and counselors, a review by The Associated Press found. The Federal Emergency Management Agency included the prestigious girls' summer camp in a 'Special Flood Hazard Area' in its National Flood Insurance map for Kerr County in 2011, which means it was required to have flood insurance and faced tighter regulation on any future construction projects. That designation means an area is likely to be inundated during a 100-year flood — one severe enough that it only has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. Located in a low-lying area along the Guadalupe River in a region known as flash flood alley, Camp Mystic lost at least 27 campers and counselors and longtime owner Dick Eastland when historic floodwaters tore through its property before dawn on July 4. The flood was far more severe than the 100-year event envisioned by FEMA, experts said, and moved so quickly in the middle of the night that it caught many off guard in a county that lacked a warning system. But Syracuse University associate professor Sarah Pralle, who has extensively studied FEMA's flood map determinations, said it was 'particularly disturbing' that a camp in charge of the safety of so many young people would receive exemptions from basic flood regulation. 'It's a mystery to me why they weren't taking proactive steps to move structures away from the risk, let alone challenging what seems like a very reasonable map that shows these structures were in the 100-year flood zone,' she said. Camp Mystic didn't respond to emails seeking comment and calls to it rang unanswered. The camp has called the flood an 'unimaginable tragedy' and added in a statement Thursday that it had restored power for the purpose of communicating with its supporters. In response to an appeal, FEMA in 2013 amended the county's flood map to remove 15 of the camp's buildings from the hazard area. Records show that those buildings were part of the 99-year-old Camp Mystic Guadalupe, which was devastated by last week's flood. After further appeals, FEMA removed 15 more Camp Mystic structures in 2019 and 2020 from the designation. Those buildings were located on nearby Camp Mystic Cypress Lake, a sister site that opened to campers in 2020 as part of a major expansion and suffered less damage in the flood. Campers have said the cabins at Cypress Lake withstood significant damage, but those nicknamed 'the flats' at the Guadalupe River camp were inundated. Experts say Camp Mystic's requests to amend the FEMA map could have been an attempt to avoid the requirement to carry flood insurance, to lower the camp's insurance premiums or to pave the way for renovating or adding new structures under less costly regulations. Pralle said the appeals were not surprising because communities and property owners have used them successfully to shield specific properties from regulation. Regardless of FEMA's determinations, the risk was obvious. At least 12 structures at Camp Mystic Guadalupe were fully within FEMA's 100-year flood plain, and a few more were partially in that zone, according to an AP analysis of data provided by First Street, a data science company that specializes in modeling climate risk. Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications at First Street, said FEMA's flood insurance map underestimates flood risks. That's because it fails to take into account the effects of heavy precipitation on smaller waterways such as streams and creeks. First Street's model puts nearly all of Camp Mystic Guadalupe at risk during a 100-year flood. The buildings at the newer Cypress Lake site are farther from the south fork of the flood-prone river but adjacent to Cypress Creek. FEMA's flood plain doesn't consider the small waterway a risk. However, First Street's model, which takes into account heavy rain and runoff reaching the creek, shows that the majority of the Cypress Lake site lies within an area that has a 1% chance of flooding in any given year. In a statement, FEMA downplayed the significance of the flood map amendments. 'Flood maps are snapshots in time designed to show minimum standards for floodplain management and the highest risk areas for flood insurance,' the agency wrote. 'They are not predictions of where it will flood, and they don't show where it has flooded before.' Property owners challenging FEMA's map designations hire engineers to conduct detailed studies to show where they believe the 100-year flood plain should actually be drawn. That is a 'pretty arduous process' that can lead to more accurate maps while making it easier for future construction, said Chris Steubing, executive director of the Texas Floodplain Management Association, an industry group that represents floodplain managers. Pralle, who reviewed the amendments for AP, noted that some of the exempted properties were within 2 feet (0.6 meters) of FEMA's flood plain by the camp's revised calculations, which she said left almost no margin for error. She said her research shows that FEMA approves about 90% of map amendment requests, and the process may favor the wealthy and well-connected. A study she published in 2021 with researcher Devin Lea analyzed more than 20,000 buildings that had been removed from FEMA flood maps. It found that the amendments occurred more often in places where property values were higher, more white people lived and buildings were newer. FEMA had cautioned in its amendments that other parts of Camp Mystic remained on the flood map, and that 'any future construction or substantial improvement' would be subject to flood plain management regulations. County officials not only allowed the camp to keep operating, but to dramatically expand. Considered Texas royalty after decades of taking care of the daughters of elite families, Camp Mystic owners Dick and Tweety Eastland cited the 'tremendous success' of their original camp in explaining the need for a second site nearby. The expansion included new cabins and a dining hall, chapel, archery range and more. The camp had 557 campers and more than 100 staffers between its two locations when a state licensing agency conducted an inspection on July 2, two days before the tragedy, records show. FEMA referred questions about the expansion to local officials, who didn't reply to messages seeking comment. Steubing, a longtime municipal engineer in Texas, said the rain and flooding that hit Kerr County in a matter of hours were so much more intense than anything in its history that it's hard to call the flood plain management a failure. Local officials likely believed they were following existing regulations when they allowed the camp to keep growing, but 'then Mother Nature set a new standard,' he said. 'You could have built things 2 feet (0.6 meters) higher, 3 feet (0.9 meters) higher, and they still might have gotten taken down,' he said.
