Latest news with #DinaEsfandiary
The National
26-06-2025
- Politics
- The National
Iran expected to step up nuclear secrecy after US strikes
US air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities have strengthened Tehran's desire to become more secretive about its activities and sideline the UN's atomic watchdog, experts said on Thursday. President Donald Trump said his administration 'successfully' struck three nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – in Iran on Sunday, although the extent of the damage remains unclear. The attacks followed Israeli strikes across Iran aimed at destroying its nuclear capabilities over 12 days. Iran retaliated by striking key areas in Israel, while blaming the International Atomic Energy Agency for fuelling unease about its nuclear activities. An Iranian bill to suspend co-operation with the IAEA moved closer to passage on Thursday. A ceasefire was agreed upon early on Tuesday, ending the exchanges that killed hundreds of people and caused extensive damage. However, questions remain on how badly Iran's nuclear activities have been set back. 'Air strikes haven't destroyed all of Iran's nuclear programme, and if anything, they have reinvigorated a desire to be more secretive on their nuclear programme,' said Dina Esfandiary, a Middle East expert at Bloomberg Geoeconomics. 'That's not to say that they're going to dash for the bomb, but many people in Iran are calling for that,' she told The National. A leaked US Defence Intelligence Agency assessment has suggested the core components of Iran's nuclear programme have not been destroyed and the strikes only set back Iran's efforts by months rather than years. But that is only an initial assessment, and is labelled as 'low confidence' because it is early in the process of trying to understand what happened. On June 13. Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and targeted top military commanders and scientists. More than a dozen were killed. That was followed by the US attack that hit the nuclear sites with 'bunker-buster' bombs. 'Despite the elimination of senior defence figures and nuclear experts, the regime still possesses the technical expertise necessary to develop a nuclear weapon,' Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at London's Chatham House, said. She said it is likely that 'Iran relocated sensitive nuclear materials from prominent locations such as the Fordow facility before the assault. The scope of the damage remains uncertain.' 'Therefore, a long-term resolution to the nuclear challenge will ultimately require a diplomatic approach,' Ms Vakil told The National. Iranian hostility towards IAEA The UN watchdog is requesting access to some of Iran's major nuclear facilities now that the war is over, but it is highly unlikely that Tehran will allow it, Ms Esfandiary said. IAEA inspectors have remained in Iran throughout the conflict and are ready to start work as soon as possible, going back to the country's nuclear sites and verifying the inventories of nuclear material, the agency's director Rafael Grossi said. Iran's parliament approved a bill on Wednesday to suspend co-operation with the IAEA. The decision was approved on Thursday by the Guardian Council, a panel of clerics and jurists that vets legislation. The National has contacted the IAEA for a comment. 'Iran is taking a hostile posture towards the IAEA with its vote in parliament as a prelude to negotiations,' Ms Vakil said. Iran has long denied any intention of building a nuclear bomb and it insists its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes. 'The Iran-Israel war has further negatively affected Iran's relationship with the IAEA,' Farzan Sabet, managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said. 'Tehran historically has had its suspicions of the IAEA and raised questions about its impartiality. 'Tehran will be suspicious about the extent to which the IAEA was used both by the Americans, the Israelis and other western intelligence to infiltrate its nuclear programme and gain knowledge that was then used to conduct strikes on Iranian facilities,' Mr Sabet told The National. Before the Israeli strikes, the IAEA board had passed a resolution declaring that Tehran was breaching its non-proliferation obligations, which triggered objections from Iran. Since the start of the war, Iranian officials have criticised the agency for failing to condemn the Israeli attacks.
Boston Globe
25-06-2025
- Business
- Boston Globe
Iran's attack on a US base in Qatar is a nightmare come true for Persian Gulf states
The operation was telegraphed by Iran, and no one was killed. Still, the attack that Iran launched in response to the US bombing of its nuclear sites Sunday was a nightmare for the Persian Gulf states, which include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. Advertisement Despite years of efforts to build bridges with Iran, curry favor with President Trump, and establish their capitals as business-friendly havens in a volatile Middle East, they have found themselves sucked into a conflict that they have sought to avoid. 'It leaves the Gulf in a really uncomfortable spot,' said Dina Esfandiary, Middle East geoeconomics lead at Bloomberg Economics. 'Their absolute worst fear came true: They were caught in the middle of an escalation between Iran and the US.' Advertisement Gulf foreign ministers gathered in Doha on Tuesday for an emergency meeting to discuss the attack. The six countries all rely on the United States as their security guarantor, and host tens of thousands of US military personnel and several major US bases. There has not been a war on their lands since Saddam Hussein, the former leader of Iraq, invaded Kuwait in 1990, and their governments have cultivated reputations as safe destinations for international tourists and investors. But the monarchs that rule the Persian Gulf states have long feared and attempted to counter security threats from Iran, even as they cultivated ties with their neighbor. Qatar and Oman have particularly friendly relations with Iran. After the attack, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke to the emir of Qatar and expressed 'his regret,' Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar's prime minister, said in a news conference Tuesday. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have had more antagonistic relationships with Iran, and went as far as severing diplomatic ties in 2016. The Emirati government has an especially complex position, as it is wary of the security threat posed by Iran but is also one of its largest trading partners. Those tensions have sometimes led to confrontations, such as in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE waged a disastrous bombing campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi militia in the 2010s. The Persian Gulf states are fearful that Iran could obtain a nuclear weapon, although they have called for the country to be dealt with through diplomacy rather than military action. There is also a sectarian dimension to the divide. Several of the Persian Gulf royal families, who are Sunni Muslim, are wary of Shiite-majority Iran exporting its revolutionary ideology to the Shiite citizens among their populations to foment unrest. Advertisement 'We have been living next to Iran for years and for centuries,' said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political scientist. 'We know how difficult Iran is.' Last week, when Saudi, Bahrain, and UAE officials met with a bipartisan delegation of US congressional representatives, they mentioned that one of their biggest worries was that Iran-backed militias could target the US forces based in their countries, Representative Jimmy Panetta, a California Democrat, said. Such a scenario would draw attention to the heavy US military presence that Persian Gulf rulers host -- a sensitive issue for their citizens. But it would also mean that their region becomes 'essentially a pawn or the arena for these tensions to play out,' Esfandiary said. With the help of US defense systems, all but one of the missiles shot at Qatar were intercepted. Hours later, the emirate announced that it had helped Trump broker a cease-fire between Iran and Israel. 'We hope for this issue to be contained as soon as possible and for this chapter to be behind us,' Sheikh Mohammed said during the news conference. But the attack highlighted the vulnerability of the Persian Gulf countries, despite their wealth and security ties with the United States. Warning sirens sounded across Bahrain and the airspace over Dubai, United Arab Emirates, one of the world's biggest aviation hubs, was closed. 'For decades we've been calling out that this is a possibility that we've tried to avert,' said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University. Advertisement The attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar evoked memories of an Iran-backed drone assault that hit energy facilities in Saudi Arabia in 2019, briefly knocking out half of the kingdom's oil production. That attack, which took place during Trump's first term, is often cited by Saudi officials as the moment when they realized that US protection only went so far, pushing them to reach out diplomatically to Iran. The countries reestablished relations in 2023. The UAE and Bahrain have also been warming to Iran, and the attack in Qatar is unlikely to derail that rapprochement. At the same time, the attack has underscored the Persian Gulf countries' reliance on the United States -- a dependency with which their rulers are not entirely comfortable.
Bloomberg
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
MidEast Region Caught in Middle of Iran, Israel Tensions
Bloomberg's Dina Esfandiary breaks down the current state of tensions between Iran and Israel as a tenuous cease fire appears to hold between the two countries. Questions remain about the lasting impact on the larger region and the state of Iran's nuclear program. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg
16-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Allegra Stratton: Eyes on the Oil Price
This latest iteration of the Middle East crisis is both familiar and unfamiliar. We're all back obsessing about the oil price, yet we also know from the last few years that that same oil price has appeared somewhat impervious — oblivious? — to regional turmoil. After the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel we were braced for a spike in energy costs. It never came, in part because there is so much more American capacity available now compared to the oil shock of the 1970s. Here Golnar Motevalli and Dina Esfandiary also explain why Iran is unlikely to take the most dramatic route of striking energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States.
Bloomberg
21-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Why Trump Is Good News for Gulf Nations
By and Stephanie Flanders Save Subscribe to Trumponomics on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to Trumponomics on Spotify On this episode of Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg's Head of Government and Economics, leads a panel from the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha to explore the question of what Trumponomics means for the Middle East. It turns out the answer may be—as Donald Trump would put it—a lot of winning. 'The Gulf is well positioned to be a winner, certainly with this administration,' according to Dina Esfandiary, Middle East geoeconomics lead for Bloomberg Economics. 'They represent and they present themselves to be everything that the Trump administration likes: The glitz, the glamor, the money—all of these things are very attractive to this administration.'
