Latest news with #DisorderPodcast
Metro
23-06-2025
- Business
- Metro
Oil prices - what will happen if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz?
Global oil prices are surging. It is the clearest signal yet that instability in the Middle East will spill over, after Israel's bombardments on Iran – bolstered by US airstrikes on three nuclear sites – entered a second week. A third of the world's oil is derived from the region, with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar being the biggest fossil fuel suppliers, so any disruption will, of course, shake up the market. Fears are also rising that the Islamic Regime could follow through on their promise to close the Strait of Hormuz – the most strategic oil chokepoint in the world. And if things get uglier, security experts have told Metro that the oil could jump from the current price of $78.96 per barrel to as much as $120 in a 'worst-case scenario'. What is striking – and somewhat ironic – is that just 24 hours after the US hit Iran's nuclear assets, Washington is now urging China to pressure Iran to keep the 103-mile stretch of ocean open… Oil prices surged to a five-month high as investors wait to see if Iran would retaliate against the US attacks on its nuclear sites. A barrel of Brent crude oil – the benchmark price – jumped by around 1.53% to $78.19 a barrel as of around 7.15 CEST, while WTI rose 1.48% to $74.93 a barrel. It is worth remembering that this is around the average price for 2024, but with Israel's war only escalating, this may not be the end of it. No oil sites have actually been struck in Iran, so the market is calmer than expected. That said, if the Islamic Regime's Supreme National Security Council does approve of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price will jump even higher. Yet for now, there is 'no hint of disruption', said Javier Blas, Bloomberg's energy and commodities columnist. He said: 'Multiple oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz this morning, both in and outbound. Not even a hint of disruption. 'Oil loading across multiple ports in the Persian Gulf appears normal. If anything, export rates over the last week are higher than earlier in June.' Closing the Strait of Hormuz would have 'the most profound impact' on the global oil price and the stock market since the Iraq War. Jason Pack, fellow at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and host of the Disorder Podcast, told Metro that it would be 'such a committal step' for Iran that it would indicate which way the war is going. He said: 'There are many reasons why the Iranians would not want to close it. For one, they would not be able to make any money from their oil. 'Their allies, particularly China, would not want that. China is dependent on Iranian oil and their economy is already suffering.' Closing the Strait of Hormuz also does not happen automatically – there is no barrier or another contraption to physically stop the passing of ships. More Trending Instead, Pack explained that Iran would plant underwater mines or attack a tanker, for example, to signal it. This would also force insurance premiums for vessels to 'go through the roof.' He added: 'This would then cause oil to have to be taken on pipelines and trucks to the Mediterranean, and that would cause tremendous delays, and a lot of oil will not be produced as there are not enough storage facilities. 'So there would be a huge price hit and the markets would go crazy.' Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@ For more stories like this, check our news page. MORE: Is it safe to travel to Qatar? Latest after cancelled Doha flights from UK MORE: Is it safe to travel to Turkey? Latest Foreign Office tourist advice after US strikes on Iran MORE: El Al airline announces rescue flights from Israel to London
Metro
14-06-2025
- Politics
- Metro
Iran issues stark threat to UK and US if they help Israel deflect revenge strike
Iran has issued a stark warning to Britain, France and the US – if they step in to defend Israel, they will be treated as enemies. Military bases in the Middle East would be targeted, while the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea will be turned into war zones with naval vessels attacked. Iranian media reported that the governments of all three nations have been notified, adding that 'any country that participates in repelling Iran's attacks on Israel will be subject to the targeting of regional bases of the complicit government'. Jason Pack, fellow at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and host of the Disorder Podcast, stressed that if a 'conventional' response from Iran does not work, then 'asymmetrical terrorist attacks' will follow. He told Metro: 'What you are most likely to see is that Iranian conventional response does not work and they will have to go to asymmetrical terrorist attacks on Israeli embassies in Europe, or plant bombs at synagogues in Europe. 'Obviously that is very unfortunate as that's not attacking Israel directly and it is punishing the wrong people. 'But Iran may have to succumb to that because they are not able to directly attack their target.' While the UK has confirmed it will not be participating in defending Israel, there is already a precedent for launching strikes on Iran's proxies. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video In April when the RAF used Typhoon jets to strike Houthi drone production sites in Yemen. Britain boast multiple air bases in Qatar, Oman, Cyprus, Bahrain and the UAE. RAF jets are stationed in Cyprus, as well as transport, air-to-air refuelling and reconnaissance aircraft. Four mine-counter measure vessels and one Type 23 frigate are based in Bahrain. Before Israel's attack, Iran threatened to strike US bases in the Middle East – it has now repeated that warning. If regional Arab allies help Israel – or if Iran believes they did so – they might become targets too. Pack said that the Middle East is now entering what he described as a 'war of enduring disorder'. Deliberating on how the lines between allies and enemies will be redrawn, he said: 'The Sunni Arab Gulf States [Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and the UAE] are going to not be involved – or they will help Israel. 'We saw Jordan shooting down Iranian drones towards Israel. It has not been publicized much but the Jordanians did it. More Trending 'It is possible that the Saudis or the Gulfies will work with Israel to intercept other missiles.' As a result, Iran may seek the help of its regional allies – Yemen's Houthis, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and groups in Iraq and Syria – but none have the capabilities to fully repel Israeli strikes. Pack added: 'The Iranians would love to see their proxies, Hezbollah and the Houthis and Hamas do stuff, but they are not really that capable. 'I think that the Houthis will launch more missiles, but that capacity has been diminished over time.' Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@ For more stories like this, check our news page. MORE: Florida sheriff warns rioters 'we will kill you' as protests spread across US MORE: Everything to know about Donald Trump's military parade on his 79th birthday MORE: Lonely Planet co-founder reveals three more countries 'not to visit'
