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GMA Network
4 days ago
- Climate
- GMA Network
Brief La Niña expected in fall 2025 before ENSO neutral returns, says US CPC
A brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the US Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday. The US weather forecaster added that ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely in the late Northern Hemisphere summer of 2025, with a 56% chance during August to October. La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields. "The ENSO neutral typically results in a drier central/southern US Plains in winter, so this will likely affect the new winter wheat crop there," said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather. "However, it is a bit more favorable for South America. This should result in increased plantings and favorable conditions, at least early in the season, for both central/northern Brazil and Argentina," he added. Meanwhile, Japan's weather bureau said this week that there was a 60% chance that the La Niña phenomenon would not occur and normal weather patterns would continue towards the Northern Hemisphere winter. — Reuters
Reuters
13-03-2025
- Climate
- Reuters
U.S. forecaster sees neutral weather conditions persisting through summer
March 13 (Reuters) - La Nina conditions are weakening and a shift to an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral weather pattern is expected to develop in April and persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT La Nina is a phenomenon which is part of the larger El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle involving water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. While La Nina causes cooler-than-average temperatures, raising chances of both floods and droughts, thereby affecting crops, ENSO neutral means that the water temperature remains near the average level and crop yields may be more stable. CONTEXT Earlier this week, Japan's weather bureau said that conditions similar to the La Nina phenomenon are starting to weaken. The bureau added that it estimates a 60% chance of normal weather patterns continuing towards the Northern Hemisphere summer. "The forecast team concurs and predicts ENSO-neutral ... with a 62% chance in June-August 2025 ... and chances greater than 50% through July-September 2025," the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast. KEY QUOTES "La Nina is over for now, as we are officially in a neutral status and sea surface anomalies in the central Pacific are right at zero. With that said, there will likely be dryness in the central and southern Plains for at least the next month or so, which will impact winter wheat growth," said Donald Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist at Maxar. "Also, we do anticipate some dryness developing in central Brazil in May and June, which will stress safrinha corn. There will likely be continued drier conditions in eastern Europe, Ukraine, and western Russia through June, and will impact both winter wheat as well as early growth of corn and sunflowers," Keeney added.
