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Weapon hawkers' gain, India's pain
Weapon hawkers' gain, India's pain

New Indian Express

time17-05-2025

  • Business
  • New Indian Express

Weapon hawkers' gain, India's pain

It's certain some of them were involved in the West Asian deals. Saudi Arabia's $142-billion arms deal with the US during President Donald trump's visit is part of a wider $600-billion push that keeps defence stocks soaring even as West Asia burns. And now, India is being coaxed to join this cycle more deeply—pushed to purchase the US THAAD missile defence system, expand drone arsenals, and further militarise its border regions. But this path demands a reckoning: every rupee spent on war is a rupee not spent on schools, hospitals or rural development. Every drone exported is a gamble that someone, somewhere, will need to bleed. It feeds the bloodthirstiness of the deep state actors. To break the chain, India must act with courage. It must silence the Terroristan that flourishes across the border now to ensure a Viksit Bharat in future. Later, it can slash the bloated defence budget and re-route those funds toward education, health, climate resilience and advanced intelligence networks. Peace does not mean passivity. It means investing in the future, not in the flames of perpetual retaliation. The deep state thrives on endless war. But a confident India does not need to feed it. The question is not whether India can win battles. It already has. The question is whether India can win peace—without selling her soul to those who profit from her pain. Behind the flags and speeches, beneath the uniforms and parades, lies a machine without a face, a system without a conscience—the deep state. Not the fantasy of conspiracy theorists, but a very real confluence of interests: the defence industry, intelligence agencies, political insiders, lobbyists, and private contractors. Their goal is not national security. It is continuity. Stability for themselves; profits for their shareholders; and influence, at any cost. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems are not just corporations. They are policy-shapers, campaign donors, boardroom strategists in the war economy. In 2023, American defence companies spent over $130 million lobbying the US Congress. Why? Because every fighter jet, every missile system, every overseas deployment means revenue. In 2024 alone, Lockheed Martin earned $67.6 billion—most of it from government contracts. War is their business model. The deep state's hidden persuaders don't care who wins—only that no one stops fighting. In West Asia, it armed Saudi Arabia and Israel. In Asia, it eyes Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific with anticipation. In India, it sees the perfect mix: a powerful democracy facing a hostile neighbour, a growing budget, and a taste for strategic autonomy. If any nation truly wants sovereignty, it must unshackle itself from the war economy. That requires not just courage, but clarity to see that those selling the weapons are rarely invested in the outcome. Because for them, war is never a failure. It's the business plan. PRABHU CHAWLA prabhuchawla@ Follow him on X @PrabhuChawla

France pushes to end €150 duty-free threshold on e-commerce imports
France pushes to end €150 duty-free threshold on e-commerce imports

Yahoo

time30-04-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

France pushes to end €150 duty-free threshold on e-commerce imports

The French Government has officially outlined its intention to advocate for the termination of the €150 ($170.80) duty-free exemption on customs charges for e-commerce platforms within EU discussions. In a statement, the government noted that approximately 1.5 billion parcels enter the country annually. A significant portion of these packages, predominantly sourced from Asia, and notably China, bypass customs duties as their value falls below the €150 threshold. In 2024 alone, the EU saw an importation of 4.6 billion parcels valued under €150, with a staggering 91% originating from China. This quantity has seen a rapid escalation, doubling first between 2020 and 2022 and then again from 2022 to 2024, according to a report by the European Commission dated 5 February 2025. In the final quarter of 2024, two Chinese e-commerce platforms Temu and Shein secured their positions among the top ten most frequented online retail sites in France, attracting over 15 million unique visitors per month. Recently, the EU also revealed plans to eliminate its policy of exempting online purchases valued below €150 from customs duties. In anticipation of this reform's actualisation, France has also considered interim solutions. One such proposal is introducing a flat-rate 'management fee' levied on each parcel. The French government has also outlined several key actions set to commence in 2025. These include intensify inspections on foreign e-commerce platforms and a threefold increase in targeted sampling of e-commerce packages which is expected to result in hundreds of thousands of product rejections. Product evaluations on e-commerce sites will now concurrently assess adherence to safety standards, accuracy in labelling and environmental claims, as well as scrutinise commercial practices. The government said that only through collaborative efforts, encompassing both enhanced oversight and reforms to customs regulations, a lasting solution can be achieved to these challenges. Consequently, France is advocating for a collective recognition of the issue and a joint pledge to address it effectively. Earlier this month, the UK government commenced a review of its own de minimis regulations that currently permit tax-free entry for goods valued up to £135. On 2 April, US President Donald trump enacted an executive order that withdraws the duty-free privilege that was previously extended to low-value shipments originating from China and Hong Kong. This action specifically addresses the de minimis provision, which allowed goods valued at less than $800 to enter the US without being subject to customs duties. The revised stipulations will go into effect from 2 May. "France pushes to end €150 duty-free threshold on e-commerce imports " was originally created and published by Retail Insight Network, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.

Expect more chaos in Donald Trump's tariff policies
Expect more chaos in Donald Trump's tariff policies

Economist

time24-04-2025

  • Business
  • Economist

Expect more chaos in Donald Trump's tariff policies

Donald trump has never been shy about expressing his fondness for tariffs. But prior to his return to the White House, many of his supporters thought it more of a negotiating ploy: an aggressive stance meant to prod other countries into concessions. This comforting story now looks like fantasy. Mr Trump has shown himself to be a true believer in trade protectionism. In the process he has raised the average effective tariff on goods entering America from 2.5% last year to about 20%, the highest since the Great Depression.

What Trump's tariffs mean for markets
What Trump's tariffs mean for markets

Yahoo

time06-03-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

What Trump's tariffs mean for markets

(Reuters) -Major stock indexes fell in volatile trade on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite index at one point down 10% from its December record high, while Treasury yields also seesawed as the United States hit Canada, Mexico and China with steep tariffs. The tariff move by U.S. President Donald trump fueled investor worries about the impact on the economy, and also weakened the dollar as investors moved into safe haven Treasuries, pushing yields lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average unofficially closed down 1.63%, the S&P 500 down 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite, down 0.34%. The 10-year Treasury yield was last up 3 basis points at 4.21%, after falling to 4.106% overnight, its lowest since October. The dollar index fell 0.83%. COMMENTS ROBERT RUBIN, SENIOR COUNSELOR, CENTERVIEW PARTNERS, FORMER SECRETARY OF THE US DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (at an investment conference in New York) 'We have treaty obligations with Canada and Mexico … What does that do to our credibility around the world?' 'I think in terms of the long run for us, I think it (tariffs) means less productivity.' ''I think there's a new normal of irrationality' that is not going to be helpful to the U.S. economy. UTO SHINOHARA, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, MESIROW CURRENCY MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO (email reply) 'Trump's tit-for-tat approach has heightened fears of a global trade war, pressuring risk assets while boosting safe-havens. Tariffs have long been seen as USD-positive due to U.S. exceptionalism, but growing concerns over U.S. economic strength are shifting the narrative. With 10Y yields falling and market expectations for Fed cuts rising from two to three in 2025, the dollar is facing renewed pressure. 'Despite broad USD weakness over the past two days amid the tariff backdrop, the U.S. dollar has gained against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso - both direct tariff targets - while safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen have strengthened. Investors are left questioning whether Trump's tariffs are a negotiating tactic or the start of a reciprocal trade war, and how long they will persist in either scenario.' CHRIS GALIPEAU, SENIOR MARKET STRATEGIST, FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INSTITUTE, BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS 'Equities came under renewed pressure yesterday as President Trump confirmed tariffs are going into action on Canada and Mexico along with a slightly weaker Manufacturing PMI report for February. Bond yields declined to 4.16% on economic slowdown fears and the message coming from Washington DC. 'Under the surface, the equal weight S&P 500, which negates the market cap impact on returns, outperformed the traditional cap weight S&P 500 by 67bps yesterday and is now 2% ahead of the cap weighted S&P 500 year to date. This is a trend that has been underway for 8 months and a trend we expect to continue as the momentum unwind continues. JIM BARNES, DIRECTOR OF FIXED INCOME AT BRYN MAWR TRUST, BERWYN, PENNSYLVANIA "Before, you would have the inflationary impact at some point being incorporated in yields, but today it's purely on the short end and the long end it's a weak economy story and it's a rate cut environment story, so both of those. And it doesn't necessarily have to be, but today that's how the market's trading totally on a weak economy, and slower, and more rate cuts. The inflationary impact that could come along with the tariffs, the investors are kind of pushing that to the sideline and they're not trading on that." JASON GOLDBERG, BANK ANALYST, BARCLAYS "Tariffs introduce an element of uncertainty that can affect the largest banks, weighing on loan demand, for example, or reducing expected revenues with capital markets transactions when markets become too volatile. " "The tariffs' impact on economic growth and interest rates is what markets are trying to estimate now, I think their magnitude will depend on how long the policy stays in place". NATHAN HOYT, CIO, REGENT PEAK WEALTH ADVISORS, ATLANTA, GA (emailed reply) 'Tariffs are a tool, dusted off in 2016, after collecting dust for over a hundred years. A tool is neither good or bad until you know what it is used for. You might think a hammer is bad because of who is holding it, and you might think a tariff is bad because of who is using it. We have to wait and see the real impacts. 'The last time tariffs were widely used, global trade looked completely different - countries imported and exported entirely different raw materials and goods. Tariffs could be a terrible policy mistake, leading to anti-free trade (if you like that perspective), or it could be necessary economic medicine to bring back manufacturing to the U.S. and negotiate better terms for the U.S. (if you like this one). GENE GOLDMAN, CIO, CETERA FINANCIAL GROUP, SAN DIEGO, CA (emailed reply) 'Looming tariffs and weakening economic data sent U.S. equities spiraling lower on Monday, as the S&P 500 lost 1.76%, the tech heavy NASDAQ lost 2.64% and the small cap focused Russell 2000 lost 2.81%. Declines have continued this morning. President Trump said that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada are set to begin today. 'According to reports, he also signed an order to increase Chinese tariffs by 10% to a total of 20%. President Trump said he is using tariffs as leverage to secure the borders and prevent the flow of drugs into the United States. Canada and China have vowed to retaliate with tariffs of their own. All these tariffs create a lot of uncertainty as investors try to understand the size and scope of them which now depends in large part on how they are implemented. 'While tariff news was front and center, there were additional catalysts sending stocks lower including weak economic readings on the manufacturing sector that also showed a sharp rise in pricing pressures. The combination of slowing economic growth and potentially rising inflation worried investors. February's ISM Manufacturing Index fell slightly below consensus and is teetering on contraction. More importantly, the forward-looking component of this index, new orders, saw a sharp drop and did fall into contraction. The prices index spiked, and the employment index fell. Overall, it was not a good report for investors. Adding to the sentiment, construction spending in January unexpectedly declined. These reports only added to jitters from the previous weeks that saw weak consumer surveys and has many questioning if a recession could be looming. The Atlanta Fed publishes a model forecasting GDP in real-time and estimates for first quarter GDP growth fell to -2.8% with the new economic data inputs. We do warn this model can be widely inaccurate this far in advance and volatile. 'The Blue Chip economic consensus for first quarter GDP growth is much higher and above 2%. It is easy to get lost in the data and not see the forest for the trees. Overall, the big picture is that economic growth appears to be slowing, and tariffs are only compounding this and creating more uncertainty. Tariffs are being used as a negotiation tactic, so assuming concessions are met, they could change quickly. The impact is also uncertain as the implementation will dictate the size and scope. A potential government shutdown and government job cuts also contribute to slower growth concerns. All this is on top of already high valuations in large cap stocks. Valuations have been stretched on prospects of artificial intelligence fueled growth. With mounting risks, investors may finally be taking profits and shifting to other parts of the market that are less frothy like value and international stocks. 'A lot of what we are seeing was laid out in our 2025 market outlook - economic growth will moderate, and the Fed is likely to cut rates less than markets expected. While economic growth appears to be slowing, we are not expecting a recession around the corner as the labor market remains solid. The Fed is also less likely to cut interest rates as inflation remains sticky and now faces additional price pressures. The last part of our 2025 market outlook, diversification is back, is a key strategy to navigate this uncertainty. 'A correction, or a 10% pull back from the peak, is possible and could take the S&P 500 down to the 5500 level. However, keep in mind that corrections typically occur about once a year on average and the S&P 500 hasn't seen a correction since October 2023. We think it is prudent to be well diversified to mitigate risk. It is important to stay focused on your own long-term financial goals and avoid getting caught up in the market enthusiasm or trying to call the next bear market.' ADAM SARHAN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, 50 PARK INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK "The last time we had, you know, protectionism and tariffs was in the 1930s and 40s and now we're in a situation where investors aren't sure what's going to happen, but they are selling and they're doing their best to make sure that whatever they do is going to be good for them. This is pretty much unprecedented territory. "If there is a concern that the trade war is going to cause the economy to slow down, that's not good for banks or transportation stocks.... banks and transportation stocks make money when there's more goods and services traveling through the economy." BRIAN DAINGERFIELD, FOREIGN EXCHANGE STRATEGIST, NATWEST MARKETS, NEW YORK "This tariff reaction, I think, is certainly surprising. We've seen the dollar weakened but I think this reflects markets' assumptions about how the tariffs will have a negative impact, not just on external growth, but how it could potentially have a negative impact on U.S. growth." (Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team) Sign in to access your portfolio

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