14-07-2025
Concerns EU-US trade war could affect tourist visitors to Irish pubs
Concerns have been raised that an EU-US trade war could add to the decline in pubs in Ireland by affecting US tourist numbers.
The industry has warned that Irish consumers could also be more cautious about discretionary spending in pubs if the economy takes a hit due to mooted US tariffs of 30 per cent.
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A study released by a lobby group indicates that one in four pubs in Ireland have closed in the past 20 years.
This is because of a combination of factors including lifestyle changes and an increase in operating costs.
Although Ireland remains 'extremely densely pubbed', with around 6,200 premises across the country, the 'slow, steady, inexorable' decline is expected to continue, an industry representative said.
Donall O'Keeffe, secretary of the Drinks Industry Group of Ireland and chief executive of the Licensed Vintners Association, said 'a huge amount of challenges' were 'landing simultaneously' for Irish pubs.
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'The sector is genuinely under pressure and the proof positive is the closures,' he told the PA news agency.
A report published on Monday indicates that 2,119 closed their doors since 2005, and a further 600 to 1,000 are expected to close over the next decade.
The report was compiled by Associate Professor Emeritus at DCU, economist Anthony Foley, on behalf of the Drinks Industry Group of Ireland (Digi).
Mr Foley said there was a particular pattern of pub closures across rural Ireland, but all 26 counties have experienced declines in pub numbers from 2005 to 2024.
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The highest falls were in counties Limerick (-37 per cent), Offaly (-34 per cent) Cork (-33 per cent), Roscommon (-32 per cent), Tipperary (-32 per cent), Laois (-31 per cent), Longford (-30 per cent) and Westmeath (-30 per cent).
The lowest decrease was in Dublin with a drop of -1.7 per cent, followed by Meath with a decrease of -9.5 per cent.
The trend of pub closures was accelerated during the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns when operations were restricted or prevented, Mr O'Keeffe said.
Since then, there has been a series of 'extraordinary and incessant' cost increases for food, drink, electricity, insurance and labour.
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Added to the changes that have contributed to less drinking in pubs are a clamp down on drink driving, work pressures and commuting times meaning people get up earlier in the morning, and lifestyle changes.
The average Irish person's alcohol consumption has dropped by a third since 2001 and figures suggest alcohol consumption in Ireland may now be in line with the European average.
He added: 'Lifestyles are changing fast, and the next generation are certainly consuming much less alcohol than previous generations.
'The pub is still part of their social repertoire. They go to a pub for events, particularly, whether it's before or after a match or a concert or an office party or 21st or 30th, so pubs fit in their social lives, but certainly not with the same frequency as previous generations.'
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Mr O'Keeffe said the cost of doing business was one factor in the closure of pubs and called on excise to be cut by 10% in the upcoming budget.
'In simple terms, in round figures, 30 per cent of the price of every drink that's sold goes on tax to the Government.
'Changes in lifestyle and costs of energy and some other costs are outside of the scope of the government control, but excise is certainly within the Government's gift to control, and we're calling on the Government to cut excise by 10% in the budget in October to aid the viability of these businesses, to give them a better chance of staying open.'
He also said in the context of US President Donald Trump's threat of a 30 per cent tariff on EU goods, boosting the local pubs trade will help with the Irish drinks industry.
'By cutting excise, you help pubs keep their doors open, and we obviously buy lots of products from local craft brewers, local distillers, and they'll need domestic sales more,' he said.
'It's going to be a nightmare environment if tariffs end up at 30 per cent so supporting the domestic economy becomes really important.'
He said that if that 30 per cent tariff were to be enforced from August 1st, it may cause both Irish consumers and US tourists to become more cautious, which would impact on pubs decline even further.
'You would worry about discretionary spending if consumer confidence takes a heavy hit,' he said.
'If there's a trade war between the EU and US, what'll that do to American tourists' willingness to travel to Ireland?
'So we would be concerned that US tourist numbers could be hit in that context.
'We don't have any clarity on next year's tourist performance, but you would be worried about it, for sure.'
