Latest news with #DonellaMeadows
Newsroom
09-07-2025
- Science
- Newsroom
There's still time to get off this energy-hungry train
Opinion: Those of us who are old enough will remember how the windscreens of our cars would be covered in insects after a long drive through the countryside. If we travelled overseas, we could visit wilderness that lacked roads and wild animals seemed plentiful. This has changed, as humans expand into every habitat on Earth with an insatiable appetite for resources and energy. Since 1970, in the decades that make up most of my lifetime, we have lost about 70 percent of wild animal biomass; atmospheric CO2 has risen from 325 to 420 ppm; and the human population has increased from 3.5 to 8.2 billion. Our ecological footprint, the area needed to provide renewable resources and assimilate wastes, is greater than the area available to us on Earth and is increasing. In 1972, Donella Meadows and a group of fellow Massachusetts Institute of Technology scientists used a then-powerful computer to generate a global systems model of human activity. Using decades of global data, and trying alternative scenarios, they reached a simple conclusion: 'If the present growth trends in world population, industrialisation, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next 100 years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.' The work was published as the book Limits to Growth, which became a bestseller and was translated into many languages. Though widely dismissed in mainstream economics, subsequent analysis of the past 50 years of global data by independent researchers such as econometrician and sustainability researcher Gaya Herrington has shown the original study is robust. So why is continuous growth and resource replacement via technological innovation the popular narrative for our future? I would argue that it arises from energy blindness as described by systems thinker Nate Hagens of the Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future, and the host of podcast The Great Simplification. Hagens shows that a barrel of oil can do about 4.5 years of human physical work. The equivalent of 85 billion barrels of oil is used per year, so that's like having 383 billion invisible workers around us providing goods and services. Compared to our forebears 150 years ago, people in rich countries live like royalty and cannot imagine a different world. But fossil energy cannot last forever, and the cost of pollution is high, specifically global heating. We are also materials-blind. Gone are high-quality ore deposits of metals like copper needed for the digital world. We now crush rock containing less than 0.5 percent copper, and for every kilogram produced we must use more land, energy, water and chemicals to extract it. For those concerned about climate change, 'renewable' energy is seen as the saviour. However, solar and wind energy systems are not renewable and must be periodically rebuilt using a diverse range of metals such as dysprosium for magnets in electronic motors. They also need concrete, steel and glass, and vast land areas. Depending on the specific metal, mining geologist at the Geological Survey of Finland Simon Micheaux has shown that replacing the global fossil energy output would require mining at rates of 100 to 10,000 times that of the present day. Natural habitat destruction would be enormous, especially in the Global South. Ironically, the mining would be driven by fossil energy. Despite all the investment, an energy transition is not taking place. In the terms of energy used, annual growth in coal, oil and gas use far exceeds 'renewables'. In fact, the fastest-growing new energy form is non-conventional oil extracted from shale rock and tar sands. Furthermore, we have never had an energy transition in human history. We are using more biomass today than prior to the Industrial Revolution. Energy forms and earth materials are symbiotically related. Oil extraction is one of the biggest users of steel, which requires coal for production. The oil then powers machinery to extract more coal. Solar, wind, nuclear and hydro energy is mostly for electricity production, which is only about 20 percent of global energy use. For decades to come, steel, cement, fertiliser and plastic production at scale will rely on fossil energy. This highlights the fallacy of resource substitution (that we can adapt, by replacing one resource with another) which is central to economic theory. Even if we could reduce CO2 in the atmosphere to curb global heating, we would still have the interconnected meta-crisis of biodiversity, fish stock, forest, groundwater, arable land and soil loss. None of which can renew at rates faster than we deplete them. This brings us back to the conclusion of Limits to Growth. As explained by William Rees, University of British Columbia ecologist and the developer of the ecological footprint concept, we have overshot the human-carrying capacity of Earth. The good news is that our economy requiring constant growth to avoid collapse is a social construct and is not based on the biophysical reality. We could find an alternative. It is time for governments, education and communities to have an adult conversation about the future. It will require a civilisation-level change, but I am sure that other species and marginalised people are ready for that. The way forward will involve a low-energy life where nature not GDP is the goal. We will need to revise our belief that having more children to sustain the global population is a good thing to do and instead prioritise the rights of women and other species. We had already reached growth limits decades ago but have been buying time by drawing down fossil and living reserves and extracting from faraway lands. I hope there will be more rather than less of nature remaining when we finally act.
Fast Company
25-06-2025
- Business
- Fast Company
The future won't follow your roadmap—here's how to lead anyway
A CEO I recently worked with had become obsessed with speed and staying ahead of disruption. He launched an internal rapid response 'tiger team'—a small group of leaders and managers from a cross-section of departments—to accelerate innovation. Within a quarter, they launched pilots, restructured teams, and redesigned workflows with promising early results. The dashboard lit up green. But beneath the surface, things were cracking. Departments were misaligned. 'Innovative' pilots clashed with long-term strategic goals. Employees were burning out. Customers noticed. 'We're doing everything right,' he said. 'Why isn't it working?' It reminded me of something systems thinker Donella Meadows once wrote: 'It's almost certainly an example of cranking the system in the wrong direction.' In this case, the issue wasn't strategy, talent, or commitment. It was the frame of thinking itself. Many organizations rely on forecasting as their primary tool for future thinking. Forecasts extend what's already known—trends, data, and market behavior. That's useful for near-term planning. But when you're trying to get ahead of disruption or be transformative, it's not enough. Leading with foresight The path to the future isn't a straight line. That's where strategic foresight comes in. Foresight isn't prediction. It's a discipline for understanding complexity, scanning for emerging change, exploring multiple possible futures, and using those insights to make better decisions today. It helps organizations shift from fragile to adaptable, from reactive to resilient—and from watching the future unfold to actively shaping it. Foresight isn't theory—it's practice. Here's how to put it to work. 1. Shift from linear forecasts to alternative futures Traditional planning assumes the future will look like today—just more intense. More powerful technologies. More complex regulations. More global complexity. More demanding customers. Strategic foresight challenges the assumption of sameness. Rather than relying on a single, extrapolated future, foresight helps leaders explore a range of plausible alternatives—including disruptive or counterintuitive ones. By doing so, organizations can stress test strategies, build adaptive capacity, and prepare for a broader set of outcomes. The futures that matter most aren't necessarily the most likely—they're the ones your organization is least prepared for. That requires taking off your organizational blinders. Historical data, internal benchmarks, and even industry norms can constrain your view. Leaders need to look outward across adjacent sectors, cultural shifts, and global forces that will shape tomorrow's operating environment. Is the world you live in today what you expected ten years ago? Likely not. The straight-line future is the least likely one. Without broadening your perspective, you risk designing strategies for a world that no longer exists. Try this: Pick a strategic question. For example: What will it mean to lead in an AI-shaped economy? Then, build distinct scenarios that reflect recurring patterns of how the future unfolds: Ground each scenario in early signals of social, technological, economic, environmental, and political change. Then ask: What would it take to succeed in each? What can you start doing now? In practice: A regional bank used this approach to explore the future of trust in financial services. By examining how decentralization, AI governance, and generational values might evolve in different directions, they identified core investments—like transparency and human-centered design—that would position them well across multiple alternative futures. 2. Look for signals on the margins Most leaders wait for trends to become visible and validated before they act. But by the time something shows up in your dashboards, it's already well underway—and likely already influencing the competition. Strategic foresight trains leaders to seek out weak signals: early signs of change that emerge at the fringes of industries, cultures, and geographies. These signals tend to look small, strange, or unrelated—until they don't. When the same unexpected idea starts appearing in unrelated places, or niche behaviors spread across sectors, you're no longer looking at noise. You're seeing early indicators of what could scale. Weak signals are the raw material for scenario development, and let you act before others do. Try this: Set aside 30 minutes a week to explore beyond your core market. Scan youth culture, subreddits, startup ecosystems, art, policy, or new language emerging online. Ask your team: What's something strange, sticky, or unexpected you've noticed? Track them. Patterns will emerge, and you'll spot change earlier. Common pitfall: Don't confuse noise with significance. Virality isn't viability. Look for persistence and spread across time and context. If an idea keeps resurfacing—especially in unexpected places—it may be a sign of deeper change. 3. Understand the system—not just the symptom One of the foundational mindsets in foresight is learning to think in systems. Most leaders are taught to break problems down: analyze parts, isolate variables, and find the root cause. That works well in science and engineering. But in business—and in life—it can be limiting. To lead effectively in complexity, we need to think holistically. It's not linear cause and effect—it's loops, interdependencies, and emergence. Without this lens, leaders risk solving the wrong problem, or worse, reinforcing the dynamics that created it. Systems thinking reveals the deeper structures shaping outcomes—and where leverage really lies. Try this: Take a persistent challenge—say, employee burnout—and map it. Place the issue at the center. Ask: What contributes to this? and What does this affect? Draw lines and arrows to show how elements interact. Look for loops and unintended effects. Better yet, build the map with colleagues from across the organization. You'll surface blind spots you didn't know you had. Counterintuitive insight: Effective solutions often feel unnatural. The best move might be to slow growth, loosen control, or redefine success. If your instinct is to push harder, try asking: 'What if the opposite is true?' In practice: A global nonprofit used this mapping technique to explore volunteer attrition. Instead of ramping up recruitment, they found that increasing flexibility and reducing performance tracking led to better retention. 4. Plan from the future, not just for it Foresight isn't just about imagining what might happen—it's about deciding what should happen and aligning your strategy to make it real. Once you've explored possible futures, choose one you'd be proud to help build. That's your preferred future: not a prediction, but a direction. Then work backward to identify what must be true for that future to unfold. Backcasting reverses typical planning. Instead of projecting from today, it asks: If that's where we're going, what decisions should we make now? Try this: Choose a future you want to help create—say, a climate-positive supply chain or radically inclusive service model. Ask: What needs to be true in five years? Three? One? Then identify the actions you can take today to start closing the gap. In practice: A health insurer used this method to envision a future where care is personalized, proactive, and home-based. By backcasting, they identified shifts in reimbursement, caregiver training, and diagnostics. Within months, they were piloting a solution tied to that long-term vision—turning foresight into strategy and actively leading the way for an entire industry. From Forecasting to Foresight The most common reaction I hear from executive teams when I introduce foresight is, 'We already do that.' What they usually mean is forecasting. And that's exactly the problem. Forecasting extends the present. It's helpful for budgeting and risk management, but not for transformation. It can't reimagine your business model, challenge outdated assumptions, or surface the early signals of change. Foresight can. More importantly, it gives leaders agency—not just to adapt, but to shape what comes next. This shift isn't just methodological. It's a mindset: one that calls for curiosity, humility, and the courage to act before the future is fully knowable. The future won't follow your roadmap, but that doesn't mean we're powerless. Strategic foresight gives leaders the tools to act with purpose, even in uncertainty. It's not just about anticipating change. It's about becoming the kind of organization that helps shape it.
Forbes
25-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Today's Most Crucial Leadership Skill Is Systems Thinking
Map the system In the face of global uncertainty, how are top executives and board members delivering genuine insights for their organisations? The answer is systems thinking: arguably the most crucial skill in today's strategy toolkit. As geopolitical tensions, technological change, and economic shifts move quickly and unpredictably, understanding how your business relates to a web of interconnected systems is essential for decision-making. Systems thinking enables leaders to see beyond isolated events and identify the underlying patterns and feedback loops that drive outcomes. It is, in essence, a framework for navigating complexity. At its core, systems thinking is an approach to strategy that focuses on shifting the conditions holding a problem in place. Recent examples of such 'problems' include fragility in global supply chains, challenges with governance of AI and technology, widespread mental health complications affecting employment, and intensified environmental strain ranging from water scarcity to pollution. Each of these problems impacts business and is impacted by business in turn. However, it is not always clear how a firm should direct its resources towards mitigating risk from such challenges, let alone seeking to resolve them. Systems thinking enables leaders to recognize the dynamic relationships within and around their organization, focusing on root causes rather than symptoms. The concept, developed by systems theorists including Donella Meadows, provides practical tools for mapping the complex systems that affect your organization's sustainability and success. This holistic approach enables leaders to anticipate unintended outcomes and identify smart leverage points on which their organizations can focus resources. In today's volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world, the need for systems thinking is more pressing than ever. Businesses that fail to account for the broader context of their environment find themselves blindsided by change and fail to capture significant opportunities for sustainable value creation. Global risk reports highlight the unpredictability of today's political, economic, and environmental landscapes. The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report consistently underscores the interconnectedness of risks, including cyber threats, political instability, and diminished trust in institutions. The 2025 report not only presents global risks in the familiar form of a ranked list to which leaders have become accustomed, but also as a visually compelling map depicting the connection between risks. This change – from a list-based view of outcomes to a focus on their strategic links – epitomizes the mindset shift that makes systems thinking a powerful tool for strategy. Systems are 'a set of things… interconnected in such a way that they produce their own pattern of behaviour over time'. This is a core insight of systems thinking: systems, by definition, have emergent properties that no one within the system designs or even anticipates. For this reason, it is essential to approach systems challenges with tools that equip your organization to understand how the outcomes your business observes are generated at the systems level. Without systems thinking, interconnected challenges can overwhelm leaders and organizations, leading to reactive and ineffective responses, and even responses that perpetuate the problem. Working with resources such as the open-source Omidyar Systems Practice Workbook or Meadows' iconic Thinking in Systems: A Primer, you and your teams can become confident in your ability to lead effectively and navigate complexity through a systems-based lens. While systems thinking offers a wide range of approaches and methodologies, five core pillars of systems thinking are: The ability to think systemically is no longer a nice-to-have for leaders. It is a crucial capability for leading a sustainable, credible business in today's unpredictable world. Systems thinking has a home in the curriculum of every business school. With the interconnectedness of global risks, leaders who embrace systems thinking will not only understand how their company operates within the broader system but also be able to anticipate change and lead their industries. Systems thinking tools, including good problem statements, comprehensive stakeholder mapping, smart iceberg analysis, and well-designed causal loops, are gold dust for strategy in today's world. But the most important contribution of systems thinking – the ability to see the context in which your organization sits – is the true distinctive that will enable you to lead for sustainable growth in an uncertain future.
