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Japan Times
10-03-2025
- Climate
- Japan Times
Cascading extreme weather events unleash billions in damages globally
First came a dry spell that parched the land, then a spark, followed by some wind. Suddenly, swaths of South Carolina were consumed by voracious flames. More than 100 fires ignited in the state last weekend — an unusually high total even in the heart of fire season. It was the perfect combination of arid air, dry fuels and gusting winds that combined to spread the flames, said Doug Wood, a spokesman for the state's Forestry Commission. The South Carolina disaster is the latest high-profile example of compound weather, or two or more concurrent events that collectively yield a result worse than if each had occurred on its own. It's a global phenomenon — and its prevalence in a warming world portends the risks ahead. Malaysia recently struggled with devastating floods that killed at least five people, sent thousands fleeing their homes, crimped palm oil production and caused mudslides throughout the region. In January, a cascading series of weather disasters led to historic Los Angeles wildfires that killed 29. Texas — the U.S. epicenter of extreme weather — has been hit by a string of compound events in recent years. The great freeze in 2021 that killed at least 200 people has been tied back to a series of compound events, as has last year's record Smokehouse Creek Fire that had its roots in a massive 2023 drought that hit the Great Plains. As the planet heats up and weather whiplash spreads, compound weather events are poised to wreak even greater havoc: A study published last year in Nature projected climate damages could cost the global economy $38 trillion (in $2005) per year by midcentury. Deborah Brosnan, a climate risk scientist who heads up Deborah Brosnan & Associates, said the Los Angeles fires sharply illustrate the danger of multiple weather events leading to a larger disaster. The Palisades, Eaton and other blazes hit after the state saw two winters in a row of plentiful rains that allowed abundant vegetation growth. Last year was one of California's warmest on record, which dried out that vegetation and ushered in a flash drought across the state's southern half. The drought spread from roughly 17% of the state in late December to nearly 32% in early January when the fires started. "LA experienced normal fires, but compounded by prolonged drought and high temperatures — both of which are associated with climate change — the outcome was worse,' Brosnan said. Research found climate change made Los Angeles 35% more primed to burn. Coming up with direct costs for cascading events can be difficult because damage is often tallied by individual storms or fires. California's fires unleashed damage that's projected to reach $164 billion. In comparison, the financial toll of the drought that preceded them has yet to show up in any U.S. government assessments. The compound event didn't end once the fires were put out, either: The region has seen heavy rains falling on burn-scarred land, resulting in mudslides. "It's a good example of how all these things can play together to exacerbate the hazards that we're all facing,' said Lou Gritzo, chief science officer at industrial insurer FM. "And that was just the alignment of those kind of weather events. You can argue that had any one of those not been in place, the consequences would have been significantly reduced.' Emergency service personnel help evacuate residents from the flooded town of Lewin Brzeski, Poland, in September 2024. | Bloomberg A similar situation occurred in Australia, where drought from 2017 to 2019 was followed by the 2019-2020 Black Summer Fires that tallied insurance claims of up to $1.5 billion. Compound events have outsized impacts and they are relatively rare, making it difficult to research them, said Doug Richardson, a weather and climate research scientist at the University of New South Wales. "We need to develop our models to better account for these sorts of interactions between different climate hazards at a spatial resolution that allows us to consider how these hazards might interact,' and to build a larger sample to assess the frequency of potential compound events, he added. Not all cascading weather ends in flames, though. Flooding can occur when rain saturates soil and loosens vegetation, setting the stage for subsequent showers to have a greater impact. This was part of the mechanics around the Malaysian floods, which also got an assist from extreme tides. The states of Sabah and Sarawak saw more than 70 centimeters (27 inches) of rain in January, which left soils saturated. Yet another storm hit just as tides reached their highest levels due to the alignment of the sun, Earth and moon, said Nursalleh bin Kasim, principal assistant director of the research and technical development region at the Malaysian Meteorological Department. One extreme event can also beget another. Drought, for example, saps the soil of moisture. With no excess water to evaporate, the sun's energy is instead redirected to heating the air. The resulting hotter weather then makes the drought worse. "There can be a feedback back to the atmosphere,' said Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig, a project scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research. Larger climate impacts, such as sea-level rise, add to the perils as does building in exposed areas, Brosnan said. Notably, deforestation leads to greater risk of landslides while destroying mangroves and coral reefs worsens coastal flooding. Events can also be "spatially compounding,' striking multiple regions at once, said Jakob Zscheischler, a compound event researcher at the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research in Germany. He pointed to the fall 2024 floods that struck multiple parts of Europe as a prime example. The flooding, fueled by record rainfall from Storm Boris, killed at least 29 people and caused widespread destruction across countries from Italy to Poland to Romania. Munich Re estimated the compound event caused around $4.3 billion in damage, roughly half of which was insured. "Climate change has already led to an increase in the amount of rain during such events and will continue to do so,' Zscheischler said, "which puts pressure on infrastructure and transnational flood management due to multiple countries being affected at the same time.' Brosnan warned that siloed emergency management means "we deal poorly with complex events where impacts spread widely through a system.' There are precedents for non-weather disasters, though, that could prove useful if the world is to adapt to more compound events. Bruce Chong, director of climate and sustainability at engineering firm Arup, said Japan's culture of earthquake preparedness is one model to turn to. "They know there are earthquakes,' he said. "At the everyday level, they are already aware and prepared across multiple aspects, including how tasks are shared between local communities and the government. It's become something that everyone faces together.'
Yahoo
07-03-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
South Carolina wildfires falsely linked to 'smart city' plans
"Did you see what is going on in Myrtle Beach? So many 'natural disasters'… Are these all setting the stage for the 'Smart City' reset?" asks a March 4 X post from the account Gubba Homestead, who AFP has previously fact checked. Similar claims circulated across Facebook, and Instagram -- with one post going as far as claiming: "The 'wildfires' are being set off INTENTIONALLY by DEWs (Directed Energy Weapons) so they can easily burn down the area." AFP has fact-checked numerous claims linking wildfires to experimental energy weapons, a target of long-circulating conspiracy theories. Similarly, "smart city" projects -- an urban planning concept that uses a wide range of technology to improve public services while cutting greenhouse gas emissions -- have often triggered conspiratorial claims alongside coverage of wildfires. AFP debunked similar claims during the deadly fires in Los Angeles, as well as after the massive fires that struck Hawaii and Canada in 2023. In early March, Horry County -- which includes the resort area of Myrtle Beach -- experienced several fires including the Carolina Forest wildfire (archived here), but "there are no wildfires inside the city," Meredith Denari, the city's communications director, told AFP on March 4. More than 2,000 acres (809 hectares) have burned in an area about 10 miles (16 kms) from the city, with the city's fire department providing aid (archived here). The fire has been contained to almost half its original size, according to county authorities (archived here). Crews were investigating (archived here) what started the fire -- with officials telling local media that neither lightning, nor controlled burns in the area were to blame. Horry County's fire rescue team and the South Carolina Forestry Commission both said blazes were worsened by severe weather, including storms. Officials declined to discuss the social media claims. "We don't respond to social media claims and conspiracies, especially those that have nothing to do with our role in fighting this or any other wildfire(s)," Doug Wood, director of communications of South Carolina Forestry Commission, added on March 4. But there is no evidence of the fire being set to advance technological efforts. Horry County has a history of bad fire seasons. In 1976, the county experienced the largest forest fire ever recorded (archived here) in South Carolina, with about 30,000 acres (12,141 hectares) burned. Myrtle Beach does in fact have plans for technological improvements (archived here and here). They stem from various "smart city" initiatives launched since at least 2023, some of which are presented in city press releases (archived here and here). But the plan focuses on technology-forward efforts such as cloud-based digital government services including emergency alerts and payment processing (archived here). "Yes, the city is working towards building a Living Lab to give tech companies a place to prototype and test emerging technologies within Myrtle Beach. We aim for that lab to be built within our Arts & Innovation District," Denari said. "It is just a building, it is nothing that would blanket or change the landscape of a city," Denari said. Other technology projects related to the city include undersea cables operated by Alphabet and Meta (archived here, here and here). More of AFP's reporting on misinformation surrounding wildfires can be found here.
Yahoo
04-03-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
There's a whole ocean nearby. Why can't it be used to fight Myrtle Beach area wildfires?
Airplanes and Blackhawk helicopters have been dropping buckets of water onto wildfires that have raged in the Myrtle Beach area this weekend. But where are they getting the water? Yes, there's the Atlantic Ocean nearby that would be easy to use and provide enough water. However, saltwater isn't a good source to fight fires, and here's why. Most wildfires occur in the middle of nowhere and it's difficult to get water to those areas, said Doug Wood with the South Carolina Forestry Commission. About 1,600 acres continue to burn Monday in the Carolina Forest area. Only 30% of that has been contained, which means that it has been kept within a perimeter, but it hasn't been extinguished, Wood said. '(The water) is absolutely helping, but that's just not really available,' he said. Blackhawk helicopters with the South Carolina National Guard have been dumping water on wildfires since Sunday. Each helicopter bucket carries 600 gallons of water, according to a Facebook post. Most of that water has been taken from the Intracoastal Waterway or nearby lakes, Wood said. The ocean is not a viable water source because the waters are too choppy. With the recent windy conditions, which have contributed to the spread of the wildfires, there is only so much a single-engine plane can tolerate, Wood said. In addition, saltwater can be corrosive to firefighting equipment and cause damage to tools such as tanks, hydrants and hoses, according to Saltwater also can harm plant life, making the ecosystem barren for many years. It can also reduce the cooling effect of water, making it less efficient at lowering the temperature of the fire, according to Ocean water is usually only used if absolutely necessary. But because the Myrtle Beach area has many bodies of water, nearby lakes are perfect for this, Wood said.
