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2 hours ago
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Set Fresh Record Highs on Strong Tech Earnings
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.57%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.13%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.48%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.50%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.410%. Stock indexes are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Stellar earnings results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms are leading megacap technology stocks and the overall market higher today after they boosted their capital spending plans and pledged to continue investing in artificial intelligence. More News from Barchart Morgan Stanley Says Nvidia Has 'Exceptional' Strength. Should You Buy NVDA Stock Here? Dear MicroStrategy Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for July 31 2 Growth Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Soar 74% to 159% Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Stocks remained higher after today's mixed batch of economic news showed a resilient labor market, but weaker-than-expected consumer spending and still sticky price pressures and labor costs. Weighing on the Dow Jones Industrials index is a -4% slide in UnitedHealth Group after Baird downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral. US weekly initial unemployment claims rose +1,000 to 218,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 224,000. US Jun personal spending rose +0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m. Jun personal income rose +0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m. The US Jun core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose +2.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.7% y/y. The US Q2 employment cost index rose +0.9%, stronger than expectations of +0.8%. The US Jul MNI Chicago PMI rose +6.7 to a four-month high 47.1, stronger than expectations of 42.0. In the latest tariff news, President Trump today said he will impose a tariff rate of 15% on imports from South Korea and that a deal with Taiwan was also being drafted as the two countries reached 'a certain degree of consensus.' In addition, trade deals are in the offing for Thailand and Cambodia after they agreed to a ceasefire. The markets this week will focus on any news of new trade deals before Friday's deadline. On Friday, Jul nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +109,000, and the Jul unemployment rate is expected to rise by +0.1 to 4.2%. Also, Jul average hourly earnings are expected +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. In addition, the Jul ISM manufacturing index is expected to increase by +0.2 to 49.5. Finally, the University of Michigan Jul consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 61.8. The markets are awaiting President Trump's August 1 deadline for trade deals to avoid high tariffs. On July 16, Mr. Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. As an update, Mr. Trump last Wednesday said, 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,' an indication that the floor for tariffs is rising and suggesting that he would not go below 15%. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 40% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and 36% at the following meeting on October 28-29. This week kicks off the earnings season's busiest week, with 38% of the stocks in the S&P 500 reporting quarterly earnings, double the amount reported last week. The earnings results of Magnificent Seven members will be front and center, with Apple and reporting after today's closing. Early results show that S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +4.5% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With over 50% of S&P 500 firms having reported, around 82% exceeded profit estimates. Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 2.5-week high and is down -1.15%. China's Shanghai Composite slid to a 1-week low and closed down -1.18%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.02%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are up +6 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -3.8 bp to 4.332%. T-notes are moving higher today on some positive carryover from a rally in 10-year UK gilts to a 3.5-week high. Also, month-end buying of longer-term government debt securities by bond fund managers to extend duration and balance their bond portfolios is supportive for T-notes. T-notes fell back from their best levels after weekly jobless claims rose less than expected, and the Q2 employment cost index and the Jun core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose more than expected, hawkish factors for Fed policy. In addition, T-notes have some negative carryover from Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell dampened speculation of a Fed rate cut in September when he said that with inflation risks from tariffs, the current modestly restrictive policy stance is appropriate. European government bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -1.0 bp to 2.695%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 3.5-week low of 4.557% and is down -3.5 bp to 4.567%. The Eurozone Jun employment rate remained unchanged at a record low of 6.2%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of a +0.1 point increase to 6.3%. The German Jul unemployment change rose +2,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of +15,000. German Jul CPI (EU harmonized) eased to +1.8% y/y from +2.0% y/y in Jun, weaker than expectations of +1.9% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 10 months. Swaps are discounting the chances at 11% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. US Stock Movers Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 revenue of $47.53 billion, well above the consensus of $44.83 billion and raised its capital expenditure estimate to $66 billion-$72 billion from a previous estimate of $64 billion-$72 billion, the midpoint above the consensus of $67.79 billion. Microsoft (MSFT) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q4 revenue of $76.44 billion, stronger than the consensus of $73.89 billion. EBay (EBAY) is up more than +17% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 net revenue of $2.73 billion, better than the consensus of $2.64 billion, and forecasting Q3 net revenue of $2.69 billion-$2.74 billion, stronger than the consensus of $2.65 billion. Carvana (CVNA) is up more than +19% after reporting Q2 revenue of $4,84 billion, well above the consensus of $4.57 billion. CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) is up more than +15% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.29, stronger than the consensus of $1.16, and after Baird upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $135. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is up more than +11% after reporting Q2 adjusted Ebitda of $694.0 million, better than the consensus of $671.1 million, and raised its full-year occupancy forecast to 103% from 102.5%, above the consensus of 102.6%. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is up more than +10% after reporting Q2 EPS of $3.86, well above the consensus of $3.23. Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +7% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.66, above the consensus of $1.48, and forecast Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.39-$1.69, the midpoint above the consensus of $1.42. CVS Health (CVS) is up more than +6% after reporting Q2 net revenue of $98.92 billion, stronger than the consensus of $94.61 billion, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $391.5 billion from a previous estimate of $382.6 billion, above the consensus of $386.66 billion. Align Technology (ALGN) is down more than -30% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 net revenue of $1.01 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.06 billion, and forecasting Q3 net revenue of $965 million-$985 million, well below the consensus of $1.04 billion. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is down more than -10% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after forecasting Q2 adjusted ESP of 29 cents-37 cents, the midpoint below the consensus of 35 cents. Baxter International (BAX) is down more than -21% after reporting Q2 sales from continuing operations of $2.81 billion, below the consensus of $2.82 billion, and cut its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $2.42-$2.52 from a previous forecast of $2.47-$2.55. International Paper (IP) is down more than -5% after reporting Q2 adjusted operating EPS of 20 cents, well below the consensus of 40 cents. Lam Research (LRCX) is down more than -4% after the company said it expects Q1 revenue to ease from current-quarter levels, with Chinese customers potentially scaling back after a spending spree. Qualcomm (QCOM) is down more than -4% after reporting Q3 handset revenue of $6.33 billion, below the consensus of $6.48 billion. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Baird downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $198. Earnings Reports (7/31/2025) AbbVie Inc (ABBV), AES Corp/The (AES), Air Products and Chemicals Inc (APD), Inc (AMZN), Ameren Corp (AEE), AMETEK Inc (AME), Apple Inc (AAPL), Aptiv PLC (APTV), Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG), Baxter International Inc (BAX), Biogen Inc (BIIB), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY), Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR), Camden Property Trust (CPT), Cigna Group/The (CI), Clorox Co/The (CLX), CMS Energy Corp (CMS), Coinbase Global Inc (COIN), Comcast Corp (CMCSA), CVS Health Corp (CVS), Eastman Chemical Co (EMN), Edison International (EIX), Eversource Energy (ES), Exelon Corp (EXC), First Solar Inc (FSLR), Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), Ingersoll Rand Inc (IR), Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE), International Paper Co (IP), Kellanova (K), Kimco Realty Corp (KIM), KKR & Co Inc (KKR), KLA Corp (KLAC), Masco Corp (MAS), Mastercard Inc (MA), Mettler-Toledo International I (MTD), Monolithic Power Systems Inc (MPWR), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Paramount Global (PARA), PG&E Corp (PCG), PPL Corp (PPL), Quanta Services Inc (PWR), ResMed Inc (RMD), S&P Global Inc (SPGI), Southern Co/The (SO), Stryker Corp (SYK), Vulcan Materials Co (VMC), Willis Towers Watson PLC (WTW), Xcel Energy Inc (XEL), Xylem Inc/NY (XYL). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks Supported by Strong Earnings and Trade Deal Optimism
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.25%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.25%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.03%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.20%. Stock indexes today are mostly stronger, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Better-than-expected quarterly corporate earnings results and positive trade news are supporting gains in stocks. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said a 90-day extension of a trade truce with China was a likely outcome with negotiations between the two countries underway in Stockholm. Stocks also found some support from today's US economic news that showed the Jun advance goods trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to -$86.0 billion versus expectations of a widening to -$98.0 billion, a positive factor for Q2 GDP. More News from Barchart Tesla Just Signed a Chip Supply Deal with Samsung. What Does That Mean for TSLA Stock? Dear Microsoft Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for Aug. 1 Is Lucid Motors Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for July 2025? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. Stocks maintained their gains on mixed US economic news that showed Jun JOLTS job openings fell more than expected, but the Jul consumer confidence index rose more than expected. M&A activity is also supportive of stocks as Union Pacific agreed to acquire Norfolk Southern for about $85 billion, or around $320 a share. Also, Baker Hughes acquired Chart Industries for $9.6 billion, or about $210 a share. Weighing on the Dow Jones Industrials is a -4% fall in Merck & Co after it said it will extend its shipment pause of the Gardasil vaccine to China through at least the end of the year, citing soft demand. Also, UnitedHealth Group is down more than -4% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS below consensus. The US May S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index rose +2.79% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.91% and the smallest pace of increase in 1.75 years. US Jun JOLTS job openings fell -275,000 to 7.437 million, weaker than expectations of 7.500 million. The Conference Board US Jul consumer confidence index rose +2.0 to 97.2, stronger than expectations of 96.0. The markets this week will focus on any news of new trade deals before Friday's deadline. The 2-day FOMC meeting began today, and the Fed is expected to keep the fed funds target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% when the meeting ends on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, the Jul ADP employment change is expected to climb by +80,000. Finally, on Wednesday, Q2 GDP is expected to expand by +2.4% (q/q annualized) and the Q2 core PCE price index is expected to ease to +2.3% from +3.5% in Q1. On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to rise by 6,000 to 223,000, and the Q2 employment cost index is expected to increase by 0.8%. Also, Jun personal spending is expected to climb +0.4% m/m and Jun personal income is expected to rise +0.3% m/m. In addition, the Jun core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is expected to climb +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Finally, on Thursday, the Jul MNI Chicago PMI is expected to increase by +1.6 to 42.0. On Friday, Jul nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +109,000 and the Jul unemployment rate is expected to rise by +0.1 to 4.2%. Also, Jul average hourly earnings are expected +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. In addition, the Jul ISM manufacturing index is expected to increase by +0.2 to 49.5. Finally, the University of Michigan Jul consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 61.8. The markets are awaiting President Trump's August 1 deadline for trade deals to avoid high tariffs. On July 16, Mr. Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. As an update, Mr. Trump last Wednesday said, 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,' an indication that the floor for tariffs is rising and suggesting that he would not go below 15%. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting and 64% at the following meeting on September 16-17. This week kicks off the earnings season's busiest week, with 38% of the stocks in the S&P 500 reporting quarterly earnings, double the amount reported last week. The earnings results of Magnificent Seven members will be front and center, with Microsoft and Meta Platforms reporting on Wednesday and Apple and reporting on Thursday. Early results show that S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +4.5% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With about a third of S&P 500 firms having reported, around 82% exceeded profit estimates. Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.92%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.33%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.79%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are up +11 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -5.4 bp to 4.356%. T-notes are moving higher today on some short covering ahead of the results of the 2-day FOMC meeting that began today. T-notes extended their gains after the Jun JOLTS job openings fell more than expected, a dovish factor for Fed policy. Limiting gains in T-notes are supply pressures, as the Treasury will auction $30 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $44 billion of 7-year T-notes later today. Also, today's strength in stocks has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.2 bp to 2.691%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 1-week high of 4.681% and is down -3.0 bp to 4.617%. The ECB's Jun 1-year inflation expectations eased to +2.6% from 2.8% in May. The ECB's Jun 3-year inflation expectations were unchanged from May at +2.4%. Swaps are discounting the chances at 15% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. US Stock Movers The strength in chip stocks today is providing support to the broader market. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +4% and Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +2%. Also, Micron Technology (MU), Texas Instruments (TXN), On Semiconductor Corp (ON), Broadcom (AVGO), Nvidia (NVDA), Lam Research (LRCX), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are up more than +1%. Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) is up more than +26% after US regulators recommended that patients who can walk be allowed to take the company's gene therapy Elevidys again. Amkor Technology (AMKR) is up more than +21% after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.51 billion, better than the consensus of $1.42 billion, and forecast Q3 net sales of $1.88 billion-$1.98 billion, well above the consensus of $1.76 billion. Chart Industries (GTLS) is up more than +16% after Baker Hughes acquired the company for $13.6 billion, or about $210 a share. Corning (GLW) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 core EPS of 60 cents, above the consensus of 57 cents, and forecasting Q3 core EPS of 63 cents-67 cents, better than the consensus of 62 cents. Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 revenue of $1.28 billion, above the consensus of $1.25 billion, and raised its full-year revenue forecast to $5.21 billion-$5.27 billion from a previous estimate of $5.15 billion-$5.23 billion, stronger than the consensus of $5.20 billion. CBRE Group (CBRE) is up more than +8% after reporting Q2 revenue of $9.75 billion, stronger than the consensus of $9.43 billion, and raising its full-year core EPS estimate to $6.10-$6.20 from a previous estimate of $5.80-$6.10. Carrier Global (CARR) is down more than -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year free cash flow of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $2.55 billion. United Parcel Service (UPS) is down more than -9% after it pulled guidance for the year, citing 'current macro-economic uncertainty.' Brown & Brown (BRO) is down more than -8% after reporting Q2 organic revenue rose +3.60%, weaker than the consensus of +5.63%. Whirlpool (WHR) is down more than -11% after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.77 billion, below the consensus of $3.85 billion, and cutting its full-year EPS forecast to $6.00-$8.00 from a previous estimate of about $10, well below the consensus of $8.78. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is down more than -5% after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.95 billion, weaker than the consensus of $4.00 billion. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) is down more than -5% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of $5.55-$5.65, weaker than the consensus of $5.84. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, weaker than the consensus of $4.59, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of at least $16, well below the consensus of $20.40. Merck & Co. (MRK) is down more than -3% after it said it will extend its shipment pause of the Gardasil vaccine to China through at least the end of the year, citing soft demand. Earnings Reports (7/29/2025) American Tower Corp (AMT), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Boeing Co/The (BA), Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG), BXP Inc (BXP), Caesars Entertainment Inc (CZR), Carrier Global Corp (CARR), CBRE Group Inc (CBRE), Corning Inc (GLW), DTE Energy Co (DTE), Ecolab Inc (ECL), Electronic Arts Inc (EA), Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS), Expand Energy Corp (EXE), Hubbell Inc (HUBB), Incyte Corp (INCY), Johnson Controls International (JCI), Merck & Co Inc (MRK), Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ), Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL), PPG Industries Inc (PPG), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG), Regency Centers Corp (REG), Republic Services Inc (RSG), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), Seagate Technology Holdings PL (STX), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK), Starbucks Corp (SBUX), Sysco Corp (SYY), Teradyne Inc (TER), United Parcel Service Inc (UPS), UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), Visa Inc (V). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Strong Earnings and Trade Deal Optimism Bolster Stocks
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.56%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.15%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.50%. Stock indexes today are mostly moving higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Strong quarterly corporate earnings results and positive trade news are supporting gains in stocks. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said a 90-day extension of a trade truce with China was a likely outcome with negotiations between the two countries underway in Stockholm. Stocks also found some support from today's US economic news that showed the Jun advance goods trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to -$86.0 billion versus expectations of a widening to -$98.0 billion, a positive factor for Q2 GDP. More News from Barchart Tesla Just Signed a Chip Supply Deal with Samsung. What Does That Mean for TSLA Stock? Dear Microsoft Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for Aug. 1 Is Lucid Motors Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for July 2025? Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! M&A activity is also supportive of stocks as Union Pacific agreed to acquire Norfolk Southern for about $85 billion, or around $320 a share. Also, Baker Hughes acquired Chart Industries for $9.6 billion, or about $210 a share. Weighing on the Dow Jones Industrials is a -6% fall in Merck & Co after it said it will extend its shipment pause of the Gardasil vaccine to China through at least the end of the year, citing soft demand. Also, UnitedHealth Group is down more than -5% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS below consensus. The US May S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index rose +2.79% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.91% and the smallest pace of increase in 1.75 years. The markets this week will focus on any news of new trade deals before Friday's deadline. Later today, the Jun JOLTS job openings are expected to decline by -269,000 to 7.50 million. Also, the Conference Board's US Jul consumer confidence index is expected to climb by +3.0 to 96.0. In addition, the 2-day FOMC meeting begins on Tuesday, and the Fed is expected to keep the fed funds target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% when the meeting ends on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, the Jul ADP employment change is expected to climb by +80,000. Finally, on Wednesday, Q2 GDP is expected to expand by +2.4% (q/q annualized) and the Q2 core PCE price index is expected to ease to +2.3% from +3.5% in Q1. On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to rise by 6,000 to 223,000, and the Q2 employment cost index is expected to increase by 0.8%. Also, Jun personal spending is expected to climb +0.4% m/m and Jun personal income is expected to rise +0.3% m/m. In addition, the Jun core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is expected to climb +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Finally, on Thursday, the Jul MNI Chicago PMI is expected to increase by +1.6 to 42.0. On Friday, Jul nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +109,000 and the Jul unemployment rate is expected to rise by +0.1 to 4.2%. Also, Jul average hourly earnings are expected +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. In addition, the Jul ISM manufacturing index is expected to increase by +0.2 to 49.5. Finally, the University of Michigan Jul consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 61.8. The markets are awaiting President Trump's August 1 deadline for trade deals to avoid high tariffs. On July 16, Mr. Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. As an update, Mr. Trump last Wednesday said, 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,' an indication that the floor for tariffs is rising and suggesting that he would not go below 15%. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting and 66% at the following meeting on September 16-17. This week kicks off the earnings season's busiest week, with 38% of the stocks in the S&P 500 reporting quarterly earnings, double the amount reported last week. The earnings results of Magnificent Seven members will be front and center, with Microsoft and Meta Platforms reporting on Wednesday and Apple and reporting on Thursday. Early results show that S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +4.5% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With about a third of S&P 500 firms having reported, around 82% exceeded profit estimates. Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.16%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.33%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.79%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are up +4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.4 bp to 4.396%. T-notes are moving higher today on some short covering ahead of the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting. Limiting gains in T-notes are supply pressures, as the Treasury will auction $30 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $44 billion of 7-year T-notes later today. Also, strength in stocks today has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.6 bp to 2.705%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 1-week high of 4.681% and is up +0.4 bp to 4.651%. The ECB Jun 1-year inflation expectations eased to +2.6% from 2.8% in May. The ECB Jun 3-year inflation expectations were unchanged from May at +2.4%. Swaps are discounting the chances at 15% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. US Stock Movers The strength in chip stocks today is providing support to the broader market. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), On Semiconductor Corp (ON), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +2%. Also, Broadcom (AVGO), Nvidia (NVDA), Lam Research (LRCX), GlobalFoundries (GFS), KLA Corp (KLAC), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed up more than +1%. Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) is up more than +27% after US regulators recommended that patients who can walk be allowed to take the company's gene therapy Elevidys again. Amkor Technology (AMKR) is up more than +21% after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.51 billion, better than the consensus of $1.42 billion, and forecast Q3 net sales of $1.88 billion-$1.98 billion, well above the consensus of $1.76 billion. Chart Industries (GTLS) is up more than +16% after Baker Hughes acquired the company for $13.6 billion, or about $210 a share. Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 revenue of $1.28 billion, above the consensus of $1.25 billion, and raised its full-year revenue forecast to $5.21 billion-$5.27 billion from a previous estimate of $5.15 billion-$5.23 billion, stronger than the consensus of $5.20 billion. Corning (GLW) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 core EPS of 60 cents, above the consensus of 57 cents, and forecasting Q3 core EPS of 63 cents-67 cents, better than the consensus of 62 cents. CBRE Group (CBRE) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 revenue of $9.75 billion, stronger than the consensus of $9.43 billion, and raising its full-year core EPS estimate to $6.10-$6.20 from a previous estimate of $5.80-$6.10. Brown & Brown (BRO) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 organic revenue rose +3.60%, weaker than the consensus of +5.63%. Whirlpool (WHR) is down more than -8% after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.77 billion, below the consensus of $3.85 billion, and cutting its full-year EPS forecast to $6.00-$8.00 from a previous estimate of about $10, well below the consensus of $8.78. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is down more than -8% after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.95 billion, weaker than the consensus of $4.00 billion. Carrier Global (CARR) is down more than -8% after forecasting full-year free cash flow of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $2.55 billion. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) is down more than -8% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of $5.55-$5.65, weaker than the consensus of $5.84. United Parcel Service (UPS) is down more than -7% after it pulled guidance for the year, citing 'current macro-economic uncertainty.' Merck & Co. (MRK) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after it said it will extend its shipment pause of the Gardasil vaccine to China through at least the end of the year, citing soft demand. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is down more than -5% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, weaker than the consensus of $4.59, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of at least $16, well below the consensus of $20.40. Earnings Reports (7/29/2025) American Tower Corp (AMT), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Boeing Co/The (BA), Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG), BXP Inc (BXP), Caesars Entertainment Inc (CZR), Carrier Global Corp (CARR), CBRE Group Inc (CBRE), Corning Inc (GLW), DTE Energy Co (DTE), Ecolab Inc (ECL), Electronic Arts Inc (EA), Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS), Expand Energy Corp (EXE), Hubbell Inc (HUBB), Incyte Corp (INCY), Johnson Controls International (JCI), Merck & Co Inc (MRK), Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ), Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL), PPG Industries Inc (PPG), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG), Regency Centers Corp (REG), Republic Services Inc (RSG), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), Seagate Technology Holdings PL (STX), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK), Starbucks Corp (SBUX), Sysco Corp (SYY), Teradyne Inc (TER), United Parcel Service Inc (UPS), UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), Visa Inc (V). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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3 days ago
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Trade Deals and Earnings Optimism Boost Stocks
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.08%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.34%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.04%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.31%. Stock indexes are mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Positive trade news is bullish for stocks after the European Union (EU) and the US reached a trade deal on Sunday, which will see the EU face tariffs of 15% on most of its exports, lower than the previous threats from President Trump of tariffs as high as 50%. Stocks also rose after the South China Morning Post reported that the US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by another 90 days from August 12, when US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Stockholm today. More News from Barchart Warren Buffett Warns Inflation Turns Business Into 'The Upside-Down World of Alice in Wonderland' But Weeds Out 'Bad Businesses' Why GOOGL Stock May Be the Market's Next Big Winner Alphabet Posts Lower Free Cash Flow and FCF Margins - Is GOOGL Stock Overvalued? Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Today's US economic news was supportive for stocks after the Jul Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey rose +13.6 to a 6-month high of 0.9, stronger than expectations of -9.0. The markets this week will focus on any news of new trade deals before Friday's deadline. On Tuesday, the Jun JOLTS job openings are expected to decline by -219,000 to 7.55 million. Also on Tuesday, the Conference Board's US Jul consumer confidence index is expected to climb by +3.0 to 96.0. In addition, the 2-day FOMC meeting begins on Tuesday, and the Fed is expected to keep the fed funds target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%. On Wednesday, the Jul ADP employment change is expected to climb by +80,000. Also on Wednesday, Q2 GDP is expected to expand by +2.4% (q/q annualized) and the Q2 core PCE price index is expected to ease to +2.3% from +3.5% in Q1. On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to rise by 6,000 to 223,000, and the Q2 employment cost index is expected to increase by 0.8%. Also, Jun personal spending is expected to climb +0.4% m/m and Jun personal income is expected to rise +0.3% m/m. In addition, the Jun core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is expected to climb +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Finally, on Thursday, the Jul MNI Chicago PMI is expected to increase by +1.6 to 42.0. On Friday, Jul nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +109,000 and the Jul unemployment rate is expected to rise by +0.1 to 4.2%. Also, Jul average hourly earnings are expected +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. In addition, the Jul ISM manufacturing index is expected to increase by +0.2 to 49.5. Finally, the University of Michigan Jul consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 61.8. The markets are awaiting President Trump's August 1 deadline for trade deals to avoid high tariffs. On July 16, Mr. Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. As an update, Mr. Trump last Wednesday said, "We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%," an indication that the floor for tariffs is rising and suggesting that he would not go below 15%. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 2% at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting and 64% at the following meeting on September 16-17. This week kicks off the earnings season's busiest week, with 38% of the stocks in the S&P 500 reporting quarterly earnings, double the amount reported last week. The earnings results of Magnificent Seven members will be front and center, with Microsoft and Meta Platforms reporting on Wednesday and Apple and reporting on Thursday. Early results show that S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +4.5% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With about a third of S&P 500 firms having reported, around 82% exceeded profit estimates. Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 2-week high and is down -0.35%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.12%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.10%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.6 bp to 4.404%. T-notes are under pressure from today's rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which reduces safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $69 billion of 2-year T-notes and $70 billion of 5-year T-notes later today. Losses in T-notes are limited after the US and EU agreed on a trade deal, which eases concerns about inflation. European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is down -3.3 bp to 2.685%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.7 bp to 4.643%. ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said the ECB shouldn't cut interest rates in September unless there's evidence of a major deterioration in the economy. Swaps are discounting the chances at 18% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. US Stock Movers Chip stocks are climbing today after the EU and the US reached a trade deal. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, KLA Corp (KLAC) is up more than +3%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), Texas Instruments (TXN) Applied Materials (AMAT), and On Semiconductor Corp (ON) are up more than +2%. In addition, Lam Research (LRCX), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Intel (INTC), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are up more than +1%. Energy stocks and energy service providers are higher today with the price of WTI crude oil up more than +2% to a 1-week high. Devon Energy (DVN), APA Corp (APA), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are up more than +2%. Also, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Haliburton (HAL), Phillips 66 (PSX), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Baker Hughes (BKR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +1%. LNG stocks are moving higher after the EU committed to big purchases of American energy products as part of the EU-US trade deal. Cheniere Energy (LNG), EOG Resources (EOG), and Venture Global (VG) are up more than +1%. Mining stocks are under pressure today after gold and copper prices tumbled to 2-1/2 week lows. Newmont (NEM) is down more than -3% and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is down more than -2%. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 on optimism that demand for its AI servers will remain strong. Nike (NKE) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $93. Weatherford International Plc (WFRD) is up more than +3% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $73. Revvity (RVTY) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $4.85-$4.95 from a previous estimate of $4.90-$5.00, the midpoint below the consensus of $4.93. Gilead Sciences (GILD) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 as analysts note a potential risk to the company's HIV preventative drugs after HHS Secretary Kennedy was reported to be planning the dismissal of an advisory panel that determines what preventive health measures insurers must cover. Cisco Systems (CSCO) is down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to inline from outperform. Centene (CNC) is down more than -2% after Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight, Accenture Plc (ACN) is down more than -2% after HSBC initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of reduce and a price target of $240. Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down more than -2% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight. Earnings Reports (7/28/2025) Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Crane Co (CR), Exelixis Inc (EXEL), Hartford Insurance Group Inc/The (HIG), Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC), NOV Inc (NOV), Nucor Corp (NUE), Olin Corp (OLN), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), Revvity Inc (RVTY), Rithm Capital Corp (RITM), Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), Veralto Corp (VLTO), Waste Management Inc (WM), Welltower Inc (WELL), Western Union Co/The (WU), Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Woodward Inc (WWD). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. 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6 days ago
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Solid Corporate Earnings Results Support Stocks
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.25%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.19%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.18%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.10%. Stock indexes are climbing today, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a new all-time high. Signs of economic resilience and better-than-expected quarterly earnings results are underpinning stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs this week. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, around 83% of S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings have exceeded analysts' profit estimates. More News from Barchart This Self-Driving Car Stock Is Surging on a Major Nvidia Boost UnitedHealth Stock Spirals Lower Again. Don't Buy the Dip. UNH Stock Falls as UnitedHealth Confirms DOJ Probe. How Should You Play Shares Here? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. On the negative side, Intel is down more than -9% to lead semiconductor stocks lower after reporting an unexpected Q2 loss of -10 cents a share, weaker than expectations of a +1 cent profit, and said it will reduce capital expenditures and cut staff by 15% by the end of the year. Also, Charter Communications is down more than -16% after reporting Q2 EPS below consensus. Today's US economic news was negative for stocks after Jun capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft & parts unexpectedly fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.1% m/m increase. The markets are awaiting President Trump's August 1 deadline for trade deals to avoid high tariffs. Last Wednesday, Mr. Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. As an update, Mr. Trump late Wednesday said, 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,' an indication that the floor for tariffs is rising and suggesting that he would not go below 15%. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 67% at the following meeting on September 16-17. The markets this week absorbed a heavy slate of quarterly corporate earnings, with reports from about one-fifth of the companies in the S&P 500. Early results now show S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +4.5% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Around 83% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported have exceeded profit estimates. Overseas stock markets today are lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.23%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.33%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.88%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -2 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up by +1.2 bp to 4.408%. T-notes are under pressure today due to negative carryover from a slide in 10-year German bunds to a 3.75-month low. Also, upcoming supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $69 billion of 2-year T-notes and $70 billion of 5-year T-notes on Monday. Limiting losses in T-notes were comments from President Trump, who downplayed his clash with Fed Chair Powell, saying there was 'no tension' with Powell, which eased fears that he would fire the Fed Chair. European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 3.75-month high of 2.769% and is up +2.0 bp to 2.722%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +1.9 bp to 4.640%. Eurozone Jun M3 money supply rose +.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.7% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 9 months. The German Jul IFO business confidence index rose +0.2 to a 14-month high of 88.6, although weaker than expectations of 89.0. UK Jun retail sales ex-auto fuel rose +0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.2% m/m. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said he saw little reason to lower interest rates further unless the economy suffers a major blow, and 'There is value in the ECB holding interest rates at current levels, and the time of no-brainer moves to hike or cut rates is over.' ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel stated that a steady monetary policy from the ECB is appropriate, as the inflation outlook has remained unchanged and the economic outlook has improved slightly. Swaps are discounting the chances at 18% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. US Stock Movers Centene (CNC) is up more than +4% to lead managed health care providers higher after laying out a plan to address problems in its Affordable Care Act business to ensure it turns a profit in 2026. Also, Humana (HUM) is up more than +4%, and Elevance Health (ELV), CVS Health (CVS), and Molina Healthcare (MOH) are up more than +3%. In addition, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) is up more than +13% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 net sales of $964.5 million, well above the consensus of $901.4 million. Comfort Systems USA (FIX) is up more than +15% after reporting Q2 revenue of $2.17 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.96 billion. Newmont Corp (NEM) is up more than +6% after reporting Q2 sales of $5.32 billion, better than the consensus of $4.85 billion. Aon Plc (AON) is up more than +6% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.49, above the consensus of $3.40. Edwards Lifesciences (EW) is up more than +4% after reporting Q2 sales of $1.53 billion, better than the consensus of $1.50 billion, and raising its full-year sales forecast to $5.9 billion-$6.1 billion from a previous estimate of $5.7 billion-$6.10 billion, stronger than the consensus of $5.91 billion. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +2% after Piper Sandler initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of overweight and a price target of $170. Gilead Sciences (GILD) is up more than +2% after Needham upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $133. Carvana (CVNA) is up more than +2% after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $450. Intel (INTC) is down more than -9% to lead chip stocks lower after reporting an unexpected Q2 loss of -10 cents a share, weaker than expectations of a +1 cent profit, and said it will reduce capital expenditures and cut staff by 15% by the end of the year. Also, ASML Holding NV (ASML) and Applied Materials (AMAT) are down more than -2%. In addition, NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Micron Technology (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -1%. Crypto-linked stocks are sliding today with the price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -3% to a 2-week low. As a result, Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down more than -3%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) are down more than -2%. Also, Coinbase Global (COIN) is down more than -1%. Charter Communications (CHTR) is down more than -17% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 EPS of $9.18, well below the consensus of $9.82. Healthpeak Properties (DOC) is down more than -6% after reporting Q2 lab same-store NOI growth of 1.5%, below the consensus of 2.45%. Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) is down more than -5% after an evaluation committee of the European Medicines Agency recommended against the approval of the company's gene therapy Elevidys. Oklo Inc. (OKLO) is down more than -1% after BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage of the stock with a recommendation of underperform and a price target of $14. Earnings Reports (7/25/2025) Aon PLC (AON), AutoNation Inc (AN), Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Co (BAH), Centene Corp (CNC), Charter Communications Inc (CHTR), Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE), First Citizens BancShares Inc/ (FCNCA), First Hawaiian Inc (FHB), Gentex Corp (GNTX), HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA), Lear Corp (LEA), OneMain Holdings Inc (OMF), Phillips 66 (PSX), Saia Inc (SAIA), Skechers USA Inc (SKX). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
