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Markets Mixed as Fed Holds Rates; Tech Resilient, Transports and Gold Stocks Tumble
Markets Mixed as Fed Holds Rates; Tech Resilient, Transports and Gold Stocks Tumble

Business Standard

time31-07-2025

  • Business
  • Business Standard

Markets Mixed as Fed Holds Rates; Tech Resilient, Transports and Gold Stocks Tumble

U.S. stocks ended mixed amid Fed's rate pause, strong GDP and jobs data; tech outperformed while transportation and gold sectors saw sharp declines. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 31.38 points (0.2%) to 21,129.67, the S&P 500 edged down 7.96 points (0.1%) to 6,362.90 and the Dow fell 171.71 points (0.4%) to 44,461.28. The major averages ended mixed after the Federal Reserve, in a divided vote, opted to keep interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50%. While the Fed cited its commitment to full employment and 2% inflation, Governors Bowman and Waller favored a rate cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that no decision has been made regarding a rate cut in September, stating it will depend on upcoming data. Payroll processor ADP released a report showing private sector employment in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of July. The report said private sector employment jumped by 104,000 jobs in July after slipping by a revised 23,000 jobs in June. The Commerce Department too released a report showing the U.S. economy rebounded by more than expected in the second quarter of 2025. The report said real GDP surged by 3% in the second quarter after falling by 0.5% in the first quarter. The rebound by real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP and an increase in consumer spending, the Commerce Department said. Most of the major sectors showed only modest moves, contributing to the lackluster performance by the broader markets. Transportation stocks substantial moved downwards, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average tumbling by 3%. Gold stocks was also significant weak , as reflected by the 2.9% slump by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. Energy and commercial real estate stocks too saw notable weakness on the day while semiconductor and brokerage stocks moved to the upside. Asia-Pacific stocks turned in another mixed performance. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index edged down by 0.1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slumped by 1.4% while China's Shanghai Composite Index crept up by 0.2%. major European markets all moved modestly higher on the day while the German DAX Index rose by 0.2%, the French CAC 40 Index inched up by 0.1% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index closed just above the unchanged line. In the bond market, treasuries gave back ground after moving notably higher in the previous session. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note which moves opposite of its price, climbed 4.6 bps to 4.37%.

Wall Street Pulls Back Ahead of Fed Decision; Global Markets Mixed, Sector Rotation Evident
Wall Street Pulls Back Ahead of Fed Decision; Global Markets Mixed, Sector Rotation Evident

Business Standard

time30-07-2025

  • Business
  • Business Standard

Wall Street Pulls Back Ahead of Fed Decision; Global Markets Mixed, Sector Rotation Evident

Investors locked in profits as major U.S. indexes retreated from record highs. Caution prevails ahead of the Fed's policy update, key earnings, and trade talks while global markets show mixed trends and sector performances diverge. The Dow fell 204.57 points (0.5%) to 44,632.99, the Nasdaq declined 80.29 points (0.4%) to 21,098.29 and the S&P 500 dipped 18.91 points (0.3%) to 6,370.86. Wall Street's pullback likely reflected profit-taking after a strong rally that pushed the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record highs. Traders remained cautious ahead of Wednesdays Federal Reserve policy announcement. While no rate change is expected, the Feds guidance could influence future rate outlooks. In the coming days, focus will shift to the Labor Departments monthly jobs report and earnings from key Magnificent Seven firms like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade talks in Stockholm remain under close watch ahead of Fridays reciprocal tariff deadline. President Trump warned that countries without individual trade deals may face tariffs of 15 to 20% on exports to the U.S., heightening global trade tensions. The Conference Board released a report showing consumer confidence in the U.S. saw a modest improvement in the month of July. It said that its consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July after falling to a revised 95.2 in June. The Labor Department released a separate report showing job openings in the U.S. decreased by slightly less than expected in the month of June. Pharmaceutical stocks substantial moved downwards on the dragging, dragging the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index down by 2.6%. Transportation stocks was significantly weak, as reflected by the 2.3% slump by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Oil service and steel stocks too saw some weakness while commercial real estate, natural gas and utilities stocks strongly moved upwards. Asia-Pacific stocks turned in another mixed performance Japan's Nikkei 225 Index slid by 0.8% while China's Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.3%. The major European markets have all moved to the upside on the day. The German DAX Index jumped by 1.0%, the French CAC 40 Index advanced by 0.7% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index climbed by 0.7%. In the bond market, treasuries moved notably higher following the weakness seen in the previous session. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, tumbled by 9 bps to 4.33%.

Equity rebound, Dow Jones, dollar vs. gold: Market takeaways
Equity rebound, Dow Jones, dollar vs. gold: Market takeaways

Yahoo

time27-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Equity rebound, Dow Jones, dollar vs. gold: Market takeaways

Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre breaks down three takeaways from the trading day, including the session's broad rebound in equities, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's (^DJI) and Dow Jones Transportation Average's (^DJT) performance, and a comparison between how the US dollar (DX=F) and commodities, such as gold (GC=F), are performing. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. US stocks surging post a comeback from Friday's losses. The move higher comes amid improved prospects for a US-EU trade agreement. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre joining us now with the trading day takeaways. Thank you, Josh. With another trading day detont, we got a risk-on market. That has been the theme of the day. And I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this. I just want to show you the smattering of markets that just did really well today. Most of these markets having their best day in at least two weeks. Arc Innovation Fund, number one. So, a lot of those smaller issues, although Tesla, one of the MAG 7 is front and center there. And then, speaking of Tesla, the MAG 7 ETF MAGS. Then, we got SOX, that's uh chip stocks. Then, we got New York Fang. Then, small caps. Then, defense and aerospace. Then, regional banks. The Qs. You get the picture here. Even retail up over 2%. So, a broad swath of equities doing pretty well today. And I had the chance to talk to, and this is on the back of the 30-year falling back below 5% today, and I think that was a key development because anytime the 30-year is punched north of 5% or threaten that, we've had some problems. And I did have the chance to talk to John Har last week on stocks and translation about, you know, the bond market and how it's kind of acting differently over the last few years than the prior 40. Here's what he had to say. After that 2022 bond bear market, uh 2023 was not a particularly good year for bonds either. A lot of them were calling for things to reverse in 2024. And that is a common strategy. You just say, hey look, mean reversion. Mean reversion loves it. Everyone loves mean reversion. It works well sometimes. It did not work well in 2024. 2024 was not a good year for bonds. So I think the bottom line for investors here, we got a new playbook that we got to realize and structurally higher rates are probably going to be a part of it, and we got to watch the 30-year. We got a bunch of auctions this week. We had the two today, we got the five and the seven coming up Wednesday, Thursday. Back to that risk-on thesis. The the bullishness we saw today, uh pretty broad-based, correct? You know, that was the case, and I was looking at the Dow markets. So, if you take a look at the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports, and on the Yahoo Finance site, that is caret DJI and caret DJT. You got to put the caret there because that's not Donald J. Trump. Uh the Dow Transports have been around since 1886. This is a year-to-date chart. And look, the Dow, by the way, almost positive on the year, you can see. Still just slightly underwater. But here are the Transports, down 6.7%. But I'm going to put this chart on a basis uh from the April 8th low. And so that's from the bottom. You can see the Transports have been outperforming here. I'm going to give you a really quick look at today's heat map in terms of the Dow Industrials. Here's what they did. Ta-da! Just a few uh blights, Boeing and United Health. Nothing new there. And then here are the Transports. Everything in the green, led by Uber, the biggest one in terms of market cap. United Airlines one of the point winners up almost 5%. The dollar up today. What was behind that? Yeah, um really interesting. I think the European trade detente, uh at least postponement of any additional tariffs, that had a big uh deal with the dollar being up today. And this is a respite, and part of that, part of my concern has been that the US, that the world has been saying, sell dollars at any cost. Get rid of all US assets. But that was a story a month ago, uh two months ago. That has not been the story recently with this huge run-up since uh April 8th. But with the dollar up today, guess what that weighs on. And that's going to be commodities. So I'm going to show you real quickly what's been happening in commodity land today. You know, gold, we were talking about that several days last week, but it was one of the leaders to the downside today. Here, I'm just going to tap that. GC equals F down almost 2%. So we haven't seen a big decline in gold in a while. But here's the year-to-date chart. This still looks pretty bullish to me. I thought this was an M top. No, we've just got a bull flag right here, and we're just kind of zigzagging down. Uh need to find a catalyst to see if we can move up again. 3,500 is a big round number there. But today, the story in commodities is for the most part, they were sold. Should we do a final peek at Bitcoin? Yeah. Yes, sir. Uh let's just do that real quick because 110,000 has been kind of a sticking point. Um and we, if you look at the five day, you can see the record highs from 111, 112,000 last week, but we are right there. Here's the year to date. Now, I'll show you how bullish this chart looks after having eclipsed these highs from earlier in the year. So we'll see. Can Bitcoin finally lead equities to new highs as well? Stay tuned. Stay tuned. Thank you, buddy. Appreciate it. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Equity rebound, Dow Jones, dollar vs. gold: Market takeaways
Equity rebound, Dow Jones, dollar vs. gold: Market takeaways

Yahoo

time27-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Equity rebound, Dow Jones, dollar vs. gold: Market takeaways

Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre breaks down three takeaways from the trading day, including the session's broad rebound in equities, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's (^DJI) and Dow Jones Transportation Average's (^DJT) performance, and a comparison between how the US dollar (DX=F) and commodities, such as gold (GC=F), are performing. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here.

Transport stock charts aren't saying the economy is fine
Transport stock charts aren't saying the economy is fine

CNBC

time22-05-2025

  • Business
  • CNBC

Transport stock charts aren't saying the economy is fine

Markets stabilized on Thursday after the dual sell-off in stocks and bonds, but a key corner of the equity market is blinking a caution light on the economy. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is headed for a losing week and has fallen back below its pre-April 2 Liberation Day levels. JB Hunt Transport Services and C.H. Robinson Worldwide have both dropped for four straight sessions. The performance of transportation stocks is often seen as a harbinger of the U.S. economy as they serve as an intermediary between producers and end customers. The chart of J.B. Hunt in particular is worrisome, as the stock is down more than 18% year to date. JBHT YTD mountain Shares of JB Hunt are trailing the broader market significantly in 2025. The struggles of transport stocks are not necessarily predictive of an economic downturn, but serve as a reminder that the outlook is still murky. Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, told CNBC that the odds of a recession have fallen in recent weeks due to the deescalation of tariffs on China and cautioned against reading too much into short-term moves over the past few days. However, his firm's outlook doesn't call for an economic boom, either, even as it sees upside ahead for stocks. "Are we going to get our trend 2-to-2.5% growth in 2025? We don't think so. But there is a sort of muddle-through scenario here that is quite a bit more constructive, I think, for risk assets," Reynolds said. Meager economic growth could be good enough to support corporate earnings and help put a floor under the equity market. However, simply avoiding a recession isn't great news for investors if it takes a large amount of deficit spending by the government to prop up growth, and pushes up bond yields at the same time. "You have a debt problem, there's three ways to get out: you inflate out, you grow out, or you default," John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, told CNBC. "And we know that default's not an option. Significant austerity measures aren't an option because it doesn't get elected in D.C. ...so some combination of growth and inflation seems likely to persist to get out of this problem, and that's going to pressure long-term yields."

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