Latest news with #DutchDisease
Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Remittances — from lifeline to leverage
Pakistan's remittance inflows in Jul-25 reached $3.21 billion, up 7.4 percent year-on-year, though 5.6 percent lower than June's $3.4 billion due to seasonal normalization after the end-of-fiscal surge. The growth marks a strong start to FY26, following FY25's record $38.3 billion in remittances—a 27 percent increase from the previous year that even exceeded total export earnings. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia remained the largest contributor in July with $823.7 million, followed by the UAE at $665.2 million (including $456.8 million from Dubai), the UK at $450.4 million, the EU at $424.4 million, the US at $269.6 million, and other GCC countries including Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait contributing $296 million. This distribution underscores the continued reliance on Gulf-based labour migrants while highlighting steady inflows from Europe and North America, reflecting a diversified base that now includes professionals, students, and freelancers alongside traditional workers. Several factors have supported recent inflows. A crackdown on hundi/hawala networks and money laundering has made formal banking channels more attractive, while a more competitive exchange rate has reduced incentives for informal transfers. Rising income from freelancers and Pakistan-based professionals working remotely for foreign companies has also added to the inflow, offsetting stagnant outward migration as some Gulf states tighten work visa quotas. Despite their importance in shoring up foreign exchange reserves and easing the current account, remittances remain vulnerable to external job markets, oil prices, and host country policies. Heavy reliance on them also risks a 'Dutch Disease' effect—drawing labour into low-productivity sectors like construction, boosting imports, and delaying the structural reforms needed to enhance export competitiveness. Seasonal peaks, such as around Eid or the fiscal year's start, can mask underlying volatility, while shifts in the global economy or slower Gulf growth could quickly put inflows under pressure. This is why policymakers must view the current remittance windfall as a strategic opportunity rather than a permanent cushion. Maintaining the enforcement environment that channels inflows through formal means is necessary, but not sufficient. The real imperative is to channel these funds into productivity-enhancing investments—expanding value-added manufacturing, upgrading skills, and integrating into global supply chains. July's performance is encouraging, but the measure of success will be whether the country can convert this inflow into long-term resilience, reducing dependence on a revenue stream that is ultimately shaped by forces beyond its control. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Daily Maverick
09-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Maverick
Capital vs trade: The stark economic divide threatening South Africa's future prosperity
Dr Michael Power recently retired from Ninety One where he was the Global Strategist for most of the past two decades. He remains a Consultant to Ninety One. Prior to Ninety One, he had worked in London, South Africa and Kenya for Anglo-American, Rothschild, HSBC Equator and Barings. He has a PhD from UCT, a master's from the Fletcher School at Tufts and a bachelor's from Oxford. His primary focus today is doing research into the emerging field of geo-economics focussing in particular on the global implications of the return of the economic centre of gravity to a China-centred Asia. In an international context and given the type of factory jobs that our pool of unemployed labour would be qualified to undertake so they might manufacture products for export, most of our available labour reserve is currently priced out of the global wage hierarchy. Last month, under the series title 'Elegy of a Tragedy Foretold ', Daily Maverick kindly published my Ninety One swansong. Central to my thesis was that the US has become addicted to breathing the heady 'Atmosphere of Capital', a dependency that has correspondingly damaged US Inc's ability to participate meaningfully in the lower pressure of the 'Atmosphere of Trade'. Result? Severe damage has been inflicted on US Inc because of capital inflows hijacking the US dollar to a far higher level than would allow US Inc to prosper in that Atmosphere of Trade. In essence, the US has contracted a severe case of the Dutch Disease. But the American variant has resulted not through exporting a commodity like oil or gas, but through exporting its currency in the form of a US Treasury Bill. In a 2019 Financial Times opinion titled ' How to diagnose your own Dutch Disease ', Brendan Greeley noted that 'around 1980 the United States discovered that it was the Saudi Arabia of money'. (To understand my American thesis more fully, it might be useful for the reader to refer back to this five-part essay which can be found here: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 and Part 5.) The core of my proposition is that even as the US might appear to 'win' through its capital account surplus (65% of the MSCI's ACWI equities index is weighted towards the US), America is 'losing' through its trade deficit (65% of the world's current account deficits in 2024 were created by the US). Profoundly negative Structurally, America's trade deficit losses have had a profoundly negative effect on the economic framework and wellbeing of the US… as well as visibly poisoning American politics. Indeed, as was foretold in JD Vance's 2016 book 'Hillbilly Elegy ', the divisive political tragedy now playing out in America has its roots in this capital account rich/trade account poor paradox. It has occurred to me that South Africa might have suffered a not too dissimilar fate to the US. Have we also become a country where the capital tail wags the trade dog? Despite the standard definition, our variant of the Dutch Disease has not happened because South Africa — by being mostly a commodity exporter — has caught the original version of the Dutch Disease. That occurred when a high percentage of the Netherlands' exports and so trade account earnings were commodity-related; in the Dutch case, the infection was caused by North Sea gas. In the 1970s, when an oil and gas price bonanza dramatically drove up Dutch terms of trade, so dragging the value of the Dutch guilder considerably higher as well, the industrial export sectors of the Netherlands became uncompetitive, and deindustrialisation swiftly followed. South Africa's variant of the Dutch Disease is closer to that contracted by the US. Given the precarious economic status that a liberated South Africa inherited in 1994, our recurring and so structural current account deficit has meant that, were we to avoid a currency crisis, we needed to attract meaningful foreign money inflows via our capital account to offset our underlying trade and current account deficits. The inflows we attracted have not, to any material degree, been foreign direct investment (the FDI that builds factories, so creating jobs), but rather mostly foreign portfolio investment (the FPI directed at our equity and bond markets). And a material share of these FPI inflows went into Government Bonds to help fund South Africa's ongoing budget deficit. (This speaks to why maintaining South Africa's Sovereign Debt Rating as high as possible — it is currently BB- or BB2 — is such a sensitive issue for our Treasury and Reserve Bank.) Yet for SA Inc, these foreign portfolio investment inflows have very possibly distorted the South African rand's valuation in foreign exchange markets, keeping it materially higher than it would otherwise have been had the quantum of those inflows not been forthcoming. De-industrialisation As a result, since 1994 (or more precisely 1995 when South Africa joined GATT, now the WTO, thus removing what little remaining protection our domestic industries had against foreign competition), echoing what happened in the US, South Africa de-industrialised. (So keen were we back in 1995 to fall into line with GATT's provisions to 'open up' that South African industrialist Leslie Boyd bemoaned that we 'outGATTed GATT'!) So what has been the fallout? We now have probably the highest unemployment rate in the world. Each week The Economist publishes the key economic metrics of the top 42 countries in the world. South Africa's stated unemployment rate — 32.9% — is over three times the next highest country's rate: Spain with 10.9%. I have long maintained that, in an international context and given the type of factory jobs that our pool of unemployed labour would be qualified to undertake so they might manufacture products for export, most of our available labour reserve is currently priced out of the global wage hierarchy. Like for like, South African wage rates for semi-skilled labour, when measured in Bangladeshi taka or Sri Lankan rupees, are very uncompetitive. Our minimum wages rates are 2.3x those of Bangladesh and 4.2x those of Sri Lanka. I am sure most readers of Daily Maverick will find the consequences of my logic — that even if the South African rand is fairly valued by markets in the Atmosphere of Capital, it is significantly overvalued in the Atmosphere of Trade — hard to stomach. I know — having worked in South Africa's fund management community for more than 20 years where we lived, breathed and even spoke the language of the Atmosphere of Capital every day — many of my erstwhile colleagues take issue with the implications of my reasoning. (For every 20 opinions on why the rand 'should be stronger', there was only ever one opinion about how to reduce South Africa's unemployment!) But I fear this sharp difference of opinion only goes to highlight South Africa's two-tier economy: that stark division between our 'haves and the have nots'. This gulf gives us the highest wealth inequality (as measured by the Gini coefficient) in the world. It is telling that, in that same ranking, other rand monetary area nations, Namibia and Eswatini, rank 2nd and 4th respectively; Botswana — whose currency basket is estimated to have a 50% rand weighting — is 5th. At the risk of oversimplifying, we 'haves' prefer to breathe the Atmosphere of Capital. We benchmark our values — in both senses of the word 'value' — against Western metrics. Indeed, most of us seem largely unaware that there might be another 'atmospheric pressure' out there in today's world that other regions of the non-Western world breathe. (Perhaps we might encounter that 'thinner air' — that relative cheapness — were we to holiday in Kenya or Indonesia.) Economically relevant Still, most of South Africa's 'have nots' have no option but to stay tied up in the straitjacket of the Atmosphere of Capital when — if they were to stand a chance of being globally economically relevant by securing an export-oriented job — they should instead be allowed to breathe the Atmosphere of Trade. And whether South Africa's 'haves' and even its 'have nots' realise it or not, the metrics determining the atmospheric pressure of the Atmosphere of Trade are not made in America or Europe, but in Asia or, even further north of us, in East and West Africa. South Africa is a heavily 'financialised' economy, a telltale sign that might indicate we breathe the Atmosphere of Capital rather than that of Trade. The JSE's market capitalisation as a percentage of GDP — at 321% in 2022 — is the second highest in the world. Only Hong Kong — with its raft of Chinese listings trading on the HKSE's H-share platform — had a larger ratio: 1,110%. South Africa — the world's 39th largest economy — also has in value terms in the rand, the 20th most traded currency as well as having the 21st most traded bond market. These otherwise impressive financial statistics obscure the less flattering economic metrics that lie beneath: our depressingly low GDP growth, chronically high unemployment and rising national debt. Our glossy financial ratios also offer cover to the dire status of the economic debate in South Africa: the hard truth is that it has become sterile and is running out of ideas. Judging by our recent economic performance, to paraphrase an advertising slogan from Margaret Thatcher's 1979 election campaign, 'South Africa isn't working'. Why? Because in the precise words of that slogan, our ' Labour isn't working'. Yet few economic commentators in either our public or private sectors want to risk rocking our financial boat even if, deep down, the conventional — and now ossified — economic wisdom as to how we might better run our economy is in fact a critical part of our problem. In the end, I maintain it comes down to a stark choice: Should South Africa's economy be run so that it benefits those few of us living in the Atmosphere of Capital? Or should it be run for the benefit of those many that might have a better chance of succeeding breathing the Atmosphere of Trade? The unsavoury truth is that as things stand, our economic frog is slowly but surely boiling and doing so in sterile policy water. Yet to us 'haves', were we to remove those rose-tinted glasses we traditionally use to gaze fondly upon our Western idols, we would realise that the economic debate in the West has become stultifyingly sterile too. Boa constrictor logic There, the boa constrictor logic of deteriorating demographics plus stagnant GDP growth plus rising national debt is slowly but surely squeezing the life out of many Western economies. Taking on more national debt — which even the erstwhile prudent Germans have now opted to do — is surely but another step along the West's highway to hell. And Western bond markets — including those of Japan — are starting to hint to investors of what torment lies ahead. So too is the rising price of gold. My fear is that those who count in the formulation of South Africa's economic policy might read my words and either reject them out of hand… or simply ignore them. But then that is what happened in the US when Cassandras ranging from Bob Dylan to Vaclav Smil warned what would happen if the US were to deindustrialise. Yet so few US politicians or economists paid heed! (Cassandra was a Trojan Princess cursed by Apollo to be able to predict the future accurately, but have no one believe her.) It is essential that South Africa's policy makers listen to other views on how we might chart a more prosperous way forward. Most historians agree that it was Einstein who said: 'The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.' DM
Zawya
21-02-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Afreximbank to Set up $1 Billion Oil Service Financing Facility in Guyana
In a significant announcement at the Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo being held from, February 18 - 21, Prof. Benedict Oramah, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) ( declared the multilateral Bank's intention to establish a $1 billion oil service financing facility in Guyana. This initiative aims to enhance local participation in the country's fast growing oil industry, in alignment with the government's local content policies. The Bank will deploy the $1 billion facility directly to qualifying corporate clients or through a factoring line via local banks, enabling them to finance invoices from local contractors. President Oramah highlighted the transformative potential of Guyana's estimated 12 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Emphasising the transformative power in proactive resource management, he advised Guyana to aggressively harness and build capital from its oil resources. He said, "Given the level of oil production in Guyana and its offshore location, I estimate that the oil service sector would amount to 5 to 8 billion US dollars annually. But where will it go? Most of it would be paid to oil service companies abroad, if Guyana does nothing to avoid that. A 50% retention in Guyana would increase Guyana's GDP by 29% to 47%.' As such, he called for robust local content policies that would enable Guyanese entrepreneurs to become significant players in the oil value chain. Based on Afreximbank's rich history of supporting commodity-dependent economies, President Oramah shared insights to complement the ongoing efforts of the Guyanese government. He acknowledged the inherent risks associated with dependency on a single commodity and laid stress on the importance of diversification. He cautioned, 'The commodity market is prone to volatility and cyclicality; hence, the reliance on crude revenues as a primary source of government funding could expose the national economy to volatile commodity markets." As such, he advised the government to secure long-term off-take contracts with oil service companies, which will enhance market access and price stability. In the spirit of deepening Afri-Caribbean partnership, President Oramah remarked that skilled oil service companies from Ghana, Egypt, and South Africa, are "ready and willing to support Guyanese... And of course, Afreximbank is there to underwrite the marriage.' He added that: 'These measures are necessary if Guyana and other new entrants in the Caribbean and Africa are to avoid the painful "Dutch Disease. We make these suggestions based on the three long decades of financing oil and gas activities across Africa. We have witnessed oil-dependent economies transform for better or worse through these periods. In all these, the difference reflected the policy choices the leaders made.' Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank. Follow us on: X: Facebook: LinkedIn: Instagram: About Afreximbank: African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is a Pan-African multilateral financial institution mandated to finance and promote intra-and extra-African trade. For over 30 years, the Bank has been deploying innovative structures to deliver financing solutions that support the transformation of the structure of Africa's trade, accelerating industrialization and intra-regional trade, thereby boosting economic expansion in Africa. A stalwart supporter of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), Afreximbank has launched a Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) that was adopted by the African Union (AU) as the payment and settlement platform to underpin the implementation of the AfCFTA. Working with the AfCFTA Secretariat and the AU, the Bank is setting up a US$10 billion Adjustment Fund to support countries effectively participating in the AfCFTA. At the end of December 2023, Afreximbank's total assets and contingencies stood at over US$37.3 billion, and its shareholder funds amounted to US$6.1 billion. Afreximbank has investment grade ratings assigned by GCR (international scale) (A), Moody's (Baa1), Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR) (A-) and Fitch (BBB). Afreximbank has evolved into a group entity comprising the Bank, its impact fund subsidiary called the Fund for Export Development Africa (FEDA), and its insurance management subsidiary, AfrexInsure (together, "the Group"). The Bank is headquartered in Cairo, Egypt. For more information, visit:
