Latest news with #DylanLewis
Cambrian News
6 days ago
- Sport
- Cambrian News
Sarn Helen runners shine at races in Wales and London
Race 2 of the AbeRAStwyth 5K series saw fantastic times being posted by Sarn Helen Runners. 2nd Overall and 1st M35 was Dylan Lewis in a superb time of 16:45, Rhodri Williams with a new PB in 17:15, Wyn Thomas 2nd M35 in a new PB time of 17:32, Dylan Harcombe 18:15, Nicola Williams 2nd OF in 20:43, Nathan Topham 23:20, Shelley Enders 1st F55 in 25:26 and Martin Darby 25:45.
ABC News
28-07-2025
- Entertainment
- ABC News
The Hottest 200 of Australian Songs — live list
With over 2.5 million votes counted in the recent Hottest 100 of Australian Songs, it stands to reason that there were a seriously large number of incredible songs that missed out on So, all this week on Double J, we're bringing you the songs that ranked from number 200 all the way down to number 101 after all the votes were counted. Hear it happen on Mornings with Michael Hing and Arvos with Dylan Lewis all week on Double J, and hear the whole list in full this Saturday from 10am local time. If you missed the Hottest 100, you can catch up on what happened here. Here are the songs that just missed the cut. The list will be updated live every day. 200. Pez — 'The Festival Song [Ft. 360/Hailey Cramer]' 199. Kate Miller-Heidke — 'Caught In The Crowd' 198. Tash Sultana — 'Jungle' 197. Warumpi Band — 'Blackfella/Whitefella' 196. The Wiggles — 'Hot Potato' 195. The Go-Betweens — 'Cattle and Cane' 194. INXS — 'Don't Change' 193. Pete Murray — 'So Beautiful' 192. Sticky Fingers — 'Gold Snafu' 191. Mental As Anything — 'Live It Up'
ABC News
26-07-2025
- Entertainment
- ABC News
The Hottest 200 of Australian Songs is coming to Double J
The Hottest 100 of Australian Songs has been an amazing celebration of the music that has been important to the people of our nation. Look, we know making that list of 10 songs was hard. But hopefully it feels worth it now. We know that some of your favourite songs didn't make it, even though they really, really should have. And we know you want to know which songs just missed out on the countdown. So, all week on Double J we will count down the songs that made it to 200-101 in the official vote count. Every morning with Michael Hing, and every afternoon with Dylan Lewis, we'll count down 10 songs that didn't quite squeeze into the main list. If the Hottest 100 is anything to go by, it's going to be another amazing list of songs. If that doesn't work for you, or you just feel like throwing another party, we'll play the full list of 200-101 on Double J next Saturday 2 August. Tune into Mornings with Michael Hing and Arvos with Dylan Lewis on Double J from Monday to hear the Hottest 200 of Australian songs all week.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Walmart's Warning; Money Tips for 2025 Grads
In this podcast, Motley Fool analysts David Meier and Andy Cross join host Dylan Lewis to discuss: The market cheering a short-term solution to trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Walmart signalling that prices on the shelves are going up anyway. Cava's "new factor" helping it continue to put up strong growth and comps numbers in a really tough market for restaurants. Dick's Sporting Goods' head-scratching $2 billion buy of Foot Locker, and the lesson to take away from one of athleisure's best performers: On Holdings. Two stocks worth watching: Evolv Technology and Booz Allen Hamilton. Motley Fool personal finance expert Robert Brokamp offers his money tips and financial commencement speech for the class of 2025. To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy. A full transcript is below. Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $639,271!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $804,688!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 957% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 167% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025 This podcast was recorded on May 16, 2025. Advertisement... Dylan Lewis: We've got a short-term trade agreement and a head-scratching acquisition. This week's Motley Fool Money Radio show starts now. It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Dylan Lewis. Joining me over the airwaves. Motley Fool senior analyst David Meier and our Chief Investment Officer, Andy Cross. Fools, wonderful to have you both here. Andy Cross: Hey, Dylan. David Meier: Hello, Dylan. Dylan Lewis: This week, we've got the money commencement speech for this graduation season one retailer shopping in the bargain bin and, of course, the stocks on our radar this week, we're going to kick off talking trade. How could we not? We're not going to quite call it a trade deal yet, Andy, but the Trump administration striking a short-term agreement with China. This follows the announcement on terms with the UK. Market obviously happy to see anything that brings tariffs down. What is a long-term investor to do with a short-term trade? Andy Cross: That's exactly right, Dylan. It is short-term. It's 90 days. It drops those imports on Chinese imports from 145 to about 30% more or less, and tariffs on US goods from 125% 10% back into China. It's sensible, right? It makes sense. The market was looking for this. We obviously saw that relief rally across the board. We've seen in tech, tech was up 8% this week alone. We saw some retail excitement around that, too. It is temporary. It's 90 days. Hopefully, we see better spirits reveal for a longer trade agreement. We saw Goldman lower the recession risk down a little bit from 45% down to 35%. But listen Dylan all on how the companies manage this. The best companies will be able to continue to thrive through this, but it does increase the cost of goods sold and the cost structure of many companies, and we're going to have to hear from them to see what they believe they can either pass on or absorb. Dylan Lewis: I think maybe optimists in the market, David look and say, we have one deal or the agreement in principle here for a deal. We have what happened with the UK as well, earlier this month. Ideally, these stack and start to build some certainty over time that businesses can operate on and that maybe other negotiations can build on too. David Meier: I completely agree with what you just said, which is we're looking for certainty. It's still not here yet. First of all, this 145% escalation was ridiculous. Clearly, markets love the pause. But a 30% tariff in place is significantly higher than anything that we've seen almost in history and certainly modern history. Yes, companies are looking for certainty and interestingly, if we go to what companies have been saying recently in their earnings, all they are doing is commenting on uncertainty. In fact, some companies have even pulled their guidance. Long term, yes, we need more clarification. We need a resolution because this 90 day pause, this could just revert right back. But I think as a long term analyst, what I'm looking to do is to look over the next few quarters and see how the commentary from companies change, because again, either customers are going to pay higher prices or company margins are going to contract. Neither one of those are good, but it's probably most likely going to be a little of both. Dylan Lewis: Early in the week, we had that announcement. Later in the week, we had commentary and earnings out from Walmart, they gave us a guide both for what to expect in terms of their business, but also what to expect on shelves and they made no bones about it. They expect prices to go up this summer for consumers. David Meier: Yes, we need to seriously think about this. Walmart, the king of low prices, has just said it is going to have to raise some prices on some of its goods. Seriously, think about that. Walmart is one of the most powerful buyers of goods in the world. It can literally almost get any deal that it wants. That's known as a monopsony. It has ultimate buying power, and it could not force suppliers to reduce their prices in the wake of these tariffs. Again, Walmart executives basically repeated what we talked a little bit about above. The tariff policies do not help our economy at all. This company has the best data about the health of the consumers across a wide variety of income levels. Again, I don't want to sound too alarmist, but this is an astounding statement from somebody who prides itself on being a low-cost provider to consumers. Andy Cross: CEO Doug McMillon Dylan said the cost pressure from all the tariff impacted markets started in late April and it accelerated into May. To Dave's point, we're going to see this through the summer. This is hitting everybody, and this is the big daddy, the big gorilla out there when it comes to supply, but they get so much of their product from China that it is impactful to see how they navigate that. That said, it was still a pretty good quarter they put up. David Meier: It was. Dylan Lewis: What's interesting to me about this is they are putting those signposts out there and those warning signs, but they are also saying, Andy, we're reiterating our guidance of 3%-4% net sales growth. They expect it to co down to the consumer on a price level and what they see on the shelves, but they aren't necessarily forecasting a hit to the business and what they've laid out financially for investors. Andy Cross: I think so. I think they can eat some of that, but they're going to have to figure out the pricing around that. They have so many skews. They sell so many things, don't forget their e-commerce sales were up 22% this quarter, which was an acceleration from not just last year, but from just the quarter we saw in December, their total sales up 2.5% and 4% on a constant currency basis. A pretty healthy performance on the comp sale. Like we talked about, this is really the giant, and we see continued increasing in their membership income was up almost 15%. Their advertising business up 50% so they have that really breadth, even though they are known predominantly on the retail side in the Walmart stores. They have that breadth that allows them the flexibility that others just don't have. David Meier: One of the things that executives commented about was, even if there's less buying from lower income cohorts, actually, folks at the higher end are trading down. They're coming to Walmart a little more so that's an interesting paradox that the company is seeing. Andy Cross: Yeah, you're seeing the higher income shoppers more at Walmart. As a percentage of traffic going through, I think you're seeing those higher income stepping foot and they're saying, like, Wash, there are prices in there that I can get at Walmart that I can't get elsewhere, and I need to be able to save money myself. Dylan Lewis: Alright, CAVA also out this week with some new numbers for the market to digest. David generally strong results for the Mediterranean fast casual chain, but also taken in part with the other ones that we have seen from restaurants so far this quarter, confusing look at what's going on with the American eater right now. David Meier: Yes, very clear that CAVA is growing fast and executing well in an environment where consumer confidence is still waning. The metric that stood out to me the most was a 10.8% increase in same store sales, and that was powered by a 7.5% increase in visits. That's to your point, that's very different than what we heard earlier in the month from Chipotle and Domino's, who saw visits to their stores or amount of traffic decrease. I think one of the things to remember here is CAVA is earlier in its growth cycle, and opening stores and having younger stores actually really helps right now from a same store sales perspective. I would be remiss if I sorry, I didn't say one other thing, I am impressed, but this company has just reached the billion dollar sales mark over the last 12 months. That is impressive. Andy Cross: Interesting deal in their food beverage and packaging costs increased to 29.3% of sales. That was an increase of 110 basis points or 1.1%. They added a steak. Steaks more expensive. They're diversifying the menu, adding that in there, that increased their beverage costs. Their average store revenue went up to 2.9 million from 2.6 million a year ago. That's an increase of 11%, and as Dave mentioned, the same store. The guidance was pretty strong at 68%, and store margin around 25%, which is pretty much what they've been delivering. The question is, is that worth the price that you're paying today? I think if you close your eyes and hold CAVA stock for the next few years, you're going to do OK, but I think in between now and then, it's going to be pretty lumpy. Dylan Lewis: Andy you brought up the steak there, and that came up on the conference call. Their team talking about how consumers are into premium items, steak being one, pita chips being another. They are not seeing that order value go down very different than what we've been seeing with comps declining at Chipotle. Some of that being traffic driven, but some of that being price sensitivity, as well. Domino's saying the lower income consumers aren't spending as much as well. When you see all this together, are you parsing this and saying, the newer concept experience, the growth story is what's helping a lot of consumers look past this, or is there something else going on here? Andy Cross: They increase prices 1.7% in January. They're not going to increase prices the rest of the year, which I found that very interesting. They got a little price bump in January, not going to get that. They're testing out Chicken Shawarma in Dallas and Florida, which I hope they come to DC, or if I visit Dallas and Florida, I'm excited to test that out because I think you're right, Dylan. I think customers are willing to try that new experience, and when they try a new experience, be able to explore a little bit into other offerings like they're offering at CAVA. David Meier: One of the other things that management commented on, and I took a few data points to try to verify if this is correct, and I think it is, is basically their price increases have been less than the rate of inflation, which is not something others have been doing. The commentary from management is in today's environment, we offer a great value proposition, and the numbers back that up. Dylan Lewis: Coming up after the break, we've got a two billion dollar buy. We're struggling to understand. Stay right here. This is mount full money. Hey, fools, we'retaking a quick break for a word from our sponsor for today's episode. Real estate. It's been the cornerstone of wealth building for generations, but it's also often been a major headache for investors with 3:00 A.M. Maintenance calls, tenant disputes, and property taxes. Enter Fundrises Flagship Fund, a $1.1 billion real estate portfolio with more than 4,000 single family homes in the Sunbelt communities, 3.3 million square feet of in demand industrial facilities, all professionally managed by an experienced team. The flagship fund taps into some of real estate's most attractive qualities, long term appreciation potential, a hedge against inflation, and diversification beyond the stock market. Check, check, and check. All without the complex paperwork, massive down payments, and soul sucking landlord duties. Visit to explore the portfolio, check out historical returns, and see just how much easier investing in real estate can be. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Fundrise Flagship Fund before investing. This and other information can be found in the funds prospectus at This is a paid advertisement. Welcome back to Mot Fool Money. I'm Dylan Lewis here on air with David Meier and Andy Cross. Fools, we've got a deal to discuss. Dick's Sporting Goods is buying Foot Locker for 2.4 billion and the market reaction pretty clear here, Dick's shareholders not loving the deal. Shares down 10% this week on the news. David, what did you think of it? David Meier: I don't get it. I think it's pretty clear that the market didn't like the idea, too, based on where you talked about Dick's Sporting Goods stock being on Thursday, May 15. Look, Foot Locker has been struggling for years, and I think it's because buying patterns are changing. Within the deal structure, for management at Dick's to come out and say that they are going to operate Foot Locker as an independent entity, pretty much communicates that this is all about turning Foot Locker around frankly, I don't see that. Sales have been contracting. The cash flow generated from this business has been trending down. I don't see the return on investment. Again, if we go back to where customers are buying their shoes from, it's not necessarily as much in the mall anymore. The direct to consumer channel is becoming more and more important. Big product makers like Nike and Skechers, On Holdings, name your favorite shoe provider. I like to market, and I'm skeptical that this is a good deal. Andy Cross: It does give them an international presence. Dick's is not internationally at all Foot Locker is 30% international, so it gives a little bit of that presence. What I was really interested, you guys, to hear them talk about Nike, Dave you mentioned that. Nike was mentioned 21 times on the conference call. Ed Stack said, I think it Elliott Hill at Nike and his team are doing a great job, and we were pretty excited about what's going on with Nike. This is the move back into wholesale or retail as opposed to direct to consumer. Foot Locker is going to be a beneficiary of that move back to a wholesale standpoint. They're clearly seeing benefits from Nike's turnaround that Elliott Hill is doing and what they're trying to do at Foot Locker. They're only paying about 30% above book value for Foot Locker. Dick's is not very inquisitive, so they don't have a lot of goodwill on the balance sheet, so I can see this playing out. David Meier: That is a very good point, Andy, because the new CEO, his specialty was taking care of the different channels so to bring him back, right, that could very well be a catalyst that helps Foot Locker along the way, and perhaps Dick is getting a bigger benefit by having more opportunities for Nike to get in its doors. Dylan Lewis: Speaking of direct consumer and sticking in the world of sporting goods, sneaker maker On Holding is out with their earnings this week. Andy, this is one of the fastest companies in Athlesia at the moment, and they seem to be continuing to set a very brisk pace. Andy Cross: Fastest in performance, as well as in just the fastest on the track because On Holdings has really truly become this performance brand when it comes to running. I think there were some concerns. Certainly, I was like, Oh, my gosh the consumers slow down. What's tariffs going to do On Holding, which has a big chunk of their business in Americas, although they're very global as well. But overall, it was a really strong quarter. Revenues were up 43%, direct to consumer was up 45%. Wholesale was up 42% these are growth numbers very strong on the top line direct to consumer is now 38% of sales. That was a little bit of an increase. They raised their sales guidance for the year to 28% from 27%. They tighten up the operating profit margin because of some of those costs, but their sales by region team is what I found so impressive. Americas was up 33%, about 28%, 29% on a constant currency, because of the strong Swiss franc, which On Holdings reports into. Europe, Middle East and Africa was up almost 34%, but here's the kicker. Asia was up 130%, 129% on a constant currency basis. Now Asia is just slightly smaller than Europe, Middle East and Africa next to the big behemoth, which is America On Holding is a global brand that is speaking and performing very well. Shoes were up 40%. That's the real bulk of their growth. Apparel doubled, but apparel is a very small part of their base. They're really known for their shoe technology finally, inventories was down almost 5%. They talked a lot about this on the call, managing inventories, really focusing on the brand, and focusing on that wholesale network, which is so important, as we saw with the acquisition of Foot Locker by Dick's. Dylan Lewis: For On Holdings, revenue tripled over the last four years. The company solidly profitable. Margins have expanded. David, Andy just painted a pretty rosy picture of this business. I did, too. Looking at the report and just looking at the outlook, is there anything you'd be concerned about here? David Meier: I have to be concerned about where future tariffs go. One of the reasons that On is getting a little bit of benefit within the markets is 90% of its shoes are sourced from Vietnam and Indonesia so basically, less product coming from China, which has less impact. If we remember after the tariff was announced, one of the most interesting things that happened in the market that day was apparently Vietnam got on the call or at least got a message to President Trump that they wanted to talk, and President Trump tweeted out, Hey, Vietnam wants to talk, maybe we'll see what we can do there and all of the barrel companies and shoe companies that have a lot of business in Vietnam basically shot up. That is the main thing that they have to manage. To counter that point, also what management talked about is they're going to be passing along price increases let's think about that. Again, this is a company that we know is continuing to grow quickly, and on the back of this really surprisingly good report, I think we can say the On brand is really here to stay. In fact, it's giving them permission to raise prices in this environment and that's huge. Because what that does is that allows them to one, still be able to meet customer demand and two, be able to protect their margin structure just a little bit let's not forget, this is a global business, and all this is happening because consumers around the world want its products. That is a phenomenal accomplishment, considering the struggles that Nike and Under Armour have seen recently. On is just not going away. Andy Cross: Putting these all together, Dylan, with the Dick's and Foot Locker news Nike is like 30-40% share in the US. They're probably 50% share in Foot Locker alone then at Dick's, they're probably maybe like a quarter of the shelf space so, you think about On Holding now competing against Foot Locker Dick's combination as I mentioned, they really are focused on that wholesaler, the wholesale distribution network. They're very I wouldn't say cautious. They're very careful on expanding their own footprint, their own store footprint. They're very successful here in the US, but they are taking a little bit more cautious approach it will be interesting to see how the Dick's Foot Locker relationship impacts the likes of On, not just Nike. Dylan Lewis: Taking a step back here. It seems like you guys, if we're looking at the race metaphor here, are putting On Holdings in the gold medal position, maybe putting Nike in a silver medal position, and putting Dick's and Foot Locker in the bronze when it comes to this race. Sounds about right to me. Andy Cross: I think that's about right. It'll be interesting Dick's reports next week, so it'll be very interesting to see what they report with their Hoka business and how they talk about the whole Dick's Foot Locker acquisition. Dylan Lewis: Andy, David, we're going to hear from you guys a little bit later in the show. Up next, Robert Brokamp steps to the lectern and gives his financial tips for 2025 grads. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool money. I'm Dylan Lewis. Spring semester is over, and college students are back home for the summer or taking the stage for graduation and starting their careers. Joining me to talk money tips for recent grads and drop some sage life advice, Motley Fool's financial planning expert Robert Brokamp. Bro, thanks for joining me. Robert Brokamp: Thank you, Dylan for having me. Such a pleasure to be here. Dylan Lewis: I have to ask. We're going to talk postgrad plans, how to set yourself up financially? What was your first job out of college? Robert Brokamp: I was actually an elementary school teacher at a school called Holy Trinity, which was associated with Holy Trinity Church, and I point that out because if you ever saw the movie The Exorcist, you've seen it because it's right on the same street as the Exorcist steps, and one of the scenes from the exorcist was filmed in the church. I was a sixth and seventh grade language arts teacher and religion teacher, not making a lot of money and living in a very expensive city. Dylan Lewis: You said not making a lot of money. Were you particularly financially aware at that point, or, at what point did you start getting on it now being a financial planning expert? Robert Brokamp: That was it. I was making not much money, already had a kid, and I figured, boy, I need to make the most of the little money that I make. I used a relatively new thing back then called the Internet to find what was then a relatively new company called The Motley Fool and that's when I started learning about money. In fact, I met Tom and David Gardner at a book signing in 1997, two years before I actually joined the company as an employee. Dylan Lewis: I think there's a little bit of inspiration there. You don't have to start out on the financial journey. You can find the financial journey. The Internet, I think, has become even more ubiquitous since then. Robert, is that right? Robert Brokamp: Most people know about it, yeah. Dylan Lewis: My financial awakening was at the Fool, too. I had studied finance and had dabbled a little bit here and there, but had done the bare bones of, I have a Roth IRA because my parents made me set one up as soon as I was tax paying age. Robert Brokamp: Good for them. Dylan Lewis: I got lucky in that I was starting off on a strong foot, but that was because of their savvy, not because of my own. For our summer interns or for our fresh grads that are starting out there, what is the checklist? What is the advice for beginning that process? Robert Brokamp: Well, I'll start with the summer interns. Or anyone with any kind of a summer job it's related to what you just said. Once you have an earned income, you can contribute to a Roth IRA. Because you do need income to contribute to the retirement account. The great thing about it is it grows tax free as long as you follow the rules. The rules being that you have to leave the earnings in there till you're age 59.5. Now for the younger folks out there them, I don't want to leave my money alone that long, but the good thing about the Roth IRA is you can take the contributions out tax and penalty free anytime. If you contribute $2,000 and it grows to 3,000, you can take out that 2000 and just leave that thousand alone until you retire boy, by the time you retire, it'll be worth a good bit so that's important to think about. If you are on an internship and ideally you're working in an internship related to what field you may want to work in, it's important, really just to understand the day to day of that job to see, is that the type of industry you want to work in? Take advantage of all the opportunities you might have to see what goes on in the company, talk to anyone who will sit down and talk to you, whether it's a newer person or even as high up as a CEO, if you can get access to that person, because you want to make those types of connections. You also want to make a good impression because once you do graduate from college, you might want to rely on someone from that internship to give you a recommendation, or you might want a job with that company there have been many situations here at The Motley Fool, back when we had an internship program, someone was an intern, they graduated from college, and then they started their career here at The Motley Fool. Dylan Lewis: One of the things I'll throw out there on the topic of interns, sometimes, depending on the structure, you're 401(k) eligible. Sometimes you're not 401(k) eligible, which gives you that first early introduction, Bro to the rollover and being prepared for that and just being aware that your financial life will move with your professional life. Robert Brokamp: One of the things I talked about is leaving the money in the Roth IRA. If you take that earnings out before age 59.5, you're going to pay taxes and a penalty. Same with a 401(k). This will happen if you're at an internship at a company that auto enrolls people. You're putting money in the 401(k). You're getting a tax break. The body gross tax deferred. But when you leave that company, you should roll it over to an IRA or to a 401(k) to you job if that's the situation. If you don't you will pay taxes and a penalty. In some cases, what companies will do when you don't have a lot of money in there, usually like less than five hod $7,000, they'll just send you a check and you're like, Hey, great, I got a check. I'm going to cash that check. That's what's going to get tax penalties. You got to get that check into an IRA within 60 days. Dylan Lewis: Depending on where you look, the number varies, but there are estimates out there for graduates and the average student loan debt. We're going to be talking to people here who maybe are very interested in putting money to work, but also have the reality of loan payments beginning. How do you think about what to save, what to invest and what that checklist looks like, the hierarchy for that? Robert Brokamp: I would say, first of all, it starts a little bit with just how you feel about debt. Does that create a sort of a psychological burden for you? Do you feel uncomfortable having debt? If that is the case, I am inclined to say pay that off as soon as possible, unless you're in a situation where you are eligible for 401(k) in which you receive a match, which is basically free money. You should at least get that match before you direct any money to paying off the debt. Now, if you feel like I'm comfortable with debt, and it's a low interest rate low single digits. I think you could be comfortable stringing out that debt longer, and then saving more. Historically, the stock market has returned 10% a year on average. You hardly ever see 10% in an actual year. You'll see many great years, many less great years, but over the long term, you ideally should be earning something that exceeds the typical interest rate on student loans. Dylan Lewis: I know for the last couple of years, the student loan environment has been a bit of wait and see, and the factors affecting whether people are going to make repayments have been changing a little bit. Anything that people should have on their outlook for that? Robert Brokamp: I would say that the days of hoping to have your student loans forgiven are at least temporarily over. I'm sure there are people that have been putting it off hoping that loans will be forgiven, and then now they are now talking about garnishing wages, maybe garnishing Social Security for student loans. I think it's just best to pay it off, at least pay the minimum payment. Now, there are situations, jobs, companies that will help you pay it off in some situations, you have to stay with the company for a certain amount of time. If you're part of that type of program, I think it makes sense to participate and only pay as little but I would not count on a great forgiveness in the future. Dylan Lewis: We fit IRAs, we hit 401Ks, we fit student loan debt, anything else on the financial checklist. Robert Brokamp: Just some rules of thumb that I think people should consider once they entering the job force. First of all, there's a good budgeting rule of thumb that is basically you devote 50% of your after tax income to necessities, things like mortgage, healthcare, groceries, 30% to discretionary purchases, like entertainment, dining out, vacations, and then 20% to savings. Then underneath that, once you graduate from college and you're getting a paycheck, like, well, how much can I afford to spend on housing, which is going to be the biggest item in your budget. A good rule of thumb is to keep it to less than 30% of your budget, if you can. I know that's harder in some more expensive cities. Then the next biggest item on most people's budgets is transportation. And that basically comes down to buying a car. A good rule of thumb there is the 2410 rule, which is basically put 20% down. Do not extend payments for more than four years and keep your monthly payment to 10% or less of your monthly gross income. Also keep a car for ten years, if you can. You pay it off in four years, and then that money you were sending to pay off the car, get into a high year old savings account, keep saving that money over the next six years. By the time you need to buy another car, you already have the cash waiting to be spent. Dylan Lewis: It's like you're staring at my driveway. I've got a 2014 Subaru hanging out. Robert Brokamp: Outstanding. Dylan Lewis: Well past the decade and thriving. To bring us home here, I'm asking you to indulge me a little bit. You've prepped a mini commencement speech. What do you have for us and for the graduating class of 2025? Robert Brokamp: Dear graduates of 2025. This may be one of the few times in your life that you'll be encouraged to be Foolish. Motley Fool was founded more than 30 years ago by brothers Tom and David Gardner and their friend Erik Rydholm. What started out as basically a project in a backyard shed is now a website with millions of visitors every month, and they chose the name the Motley Fool to stand out to be different, maybe even rebellious, little counter cultural. The name comes from Shakespeare, and the message was and is that you can manage money on your own and have some fun along the way, without the help of Wall Street, who back then were and to some extent, still are the kings of the wealth management industry, but not particularly benevolent kings. They're often charging high fees from mediocre results. I'm here to tell you to take control and maybe be rebellious, to be foolish with your money, because if you do just what the average American does, you will struggle to accomplish the financial goals that I'm sure you have. Let's start with investing. According to a Schwab survey, the older generations, the boomers, the G-Texers like me, didn't start investing until their 30s. But you can start right now with very little money as little as 25 bucks. You could open an account with a discount broker, buy even one share of stock, or even better if you're just starting out by one share of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, you'll then be a legitimate part owner of every publicly traded company in America. If you start saving $100 a month at the age of 22 and earn 10% a year, which is the long term average of the stock market, you'll have almost $750,000 by the time you're 65. What if you put it off for a decade and don't start investing until you're 32, you'd have less than $300,000. Investing right now at such a young age and eventually accumulating that money would put you in the minority of people in America. In other words, you'll be a bit countercultural and very foolish. Of course, to invest, you first have to save currently in the US, the average household saves less than 4% of their income. Yet studies show that people should be saving 10%-15% just for retirement, let alone for things like a house and a car. Do all you can to sack away at least 20% of your income. I know it may not be possible at all times, but make it your goal. Even if you can get most of the way there, you'll be doing better than most other Americans, and more importantly, you'll eventually be financially independent doing what you want and when you want. One of the biggest decisions you're going to make is whether you will get married and to whom. It'll be a huge factor, perhaps the biggest in your day to day happiness. Unfortunately, more than 40% of marriages end in divorce, and one of the biggest causes of divorce is money, and that's because many couples didn't talk about their beliefs about saving, investing, debt, or about their priorities before they tied the knot. Before you get married, make sure you and your fiance are on the same page about money. You can start by doing an online search for something we call the Fooley web game, which features questions you and your partner can answer together to see how much you're financially aligned. I'll end here by citing the graduation speech of one of the world's great Rebels, and that is Steve Jobs, who co-founded Apple in his bedroom in his parents' house when he was 21. He dropped out of college, but he still kept attending classes, including a calligraphy class that influenced the future type face and fonts of Apple products. He also spent time just wandering around India seeking enlightenment. A commencement speech he gave at Stanford in 2005, he said that he learned at the age of 17 to live each day as if it were his last. Job said, "your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma, which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions dry out your inner voice." Of course, one day was Steve Jobs' last. He died in 2011 at the way too young age of 56. While it's important to save money for your future, it's also important to not save everything for your future. Save enough to fund your goals, but please have plenty of adventures along the way. I'll close with the final two sentences of Job speech, which you got from a countercultural magazine called The Whole Earth Catalog those sentences are stay hungry, stay foolish. Thank you. Dylan Lewis: Robert Brokamp, I tip my cap to you. Wise words, as always, and a pleasure as always. Thanks for joining me today. Robert Brokamp: Thanks, Dylan. Dylan Lewis: Listeners, that's advice you can take to the bank, but it's not all we've got for you this week. After the break, David Meier and Andy Cross come back with me to talk about the stocks on their radar this week. Stay right here. Listening to Motley Fool money. As always, people on program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motif editorial standards. It is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content, provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising and disclosure. You're listening to the podcast version of this week's radio show, check out our show notes. I'm Dylan Lewis, joined again by Andy Cross and David Meier. Fool's last segment, I asked our colleague Robert Brokamp, for his money tips for college grads, and he dropped the Banger Financial Commencement speech we all probably needed to hear when we were in our early 20s. I want to know going over to you, Andy, best piece of non-financial advice for someone donning the cap and gown this May. Andy Cross: I would say, like, if you have a chance to experience as much as you possibly can as early as you can after graduation, in school and after school, try it. Try all different kinds of experiences, and don't be afraid to fail. That's just a big thing. Like, go out there. You fail, you fail with some friends, you go on to the next thing. Dylan Lewis: David similar? Are you going to say, go for it, fail or are you going to say. No, Andy's wrong. Succeed. You have to succeed all the time. David Meier: No, Andy is spot on. What I told my daughter and what I told her friends when they asked me, do not be afraid to take risks when you're young. That's when you should be taking risks to try things. Try things. Now, don't let it kill you. Don't let it be catastrophic, but do not be afraid to take risks now. It gets harder when you get older. Dylan Lewis: We tend to be financially minded here on the show, and there is the classic advice. The dollars you invest early are worth more. I'm going to caveat that with some non-financial advice. Fun costs less when you are young. It is easier to have a good time for less money when you're younger. You got to balance that lifetime value and figure out where it makes sense for you. Don't be afraid to spend a little bit and enjoy it, as well. Let's get over to stocks on our radar this week. Our man behind the glass, Dan Boyd is going to hit you with a question. David, you're up first. What are you looking at this week? David Meier: I am looking at a company called Evolv Technology and the ticker symbol is EVLV. This is a $750 million small cap that's changing the way public and private buildings manage their security. The company sells security, hardware and software that scan people as they enter buildings. As you might imagine, its biggest customers are sports venues. One cool thing is that AI is actually an incredible catalyst for the company going forward given how much data its systems collect. 2024 was an absolutely terrible year for the company. It was investigated by the FTC on how it markets its technology, and that resulted in the CEO being replaced. But with that in the past and new CEO John Kezerski at the helm, I look forward to hearing how the company will grow from $100 million in revenue in 2024 up to some much bigger number in the future. Dylan Lewis: Dan, this name is a new one to me, Evolv Technology ticker EVLV. You got a question? Dan Boyd: Yeah. I mean, with a small market cap of less than 1 billion in a recent FTC investigation, my question for David is, what are you doing, man? What is this? What are you bringing me? David Meier: I'm actually bringing you a company whose hardware is different than the typical metal scanners that are outside of venues, and I'm also bringing you a company whose customers love it. One, throughput times are faster, which means people get in, to get a good experience before they even get in the door, and it still provides plenty of safety. Yes, there was an issue in terms of how they market, but you cannot argue with the product and the software that this company delivers to its customers. They love them. Dylan Lewis: Andy, David's showing off his engineering background there, getting into the gears on the product. You got a tall order this week. What's on your watch list? Andy Cross: Well, I'm not a consultant and have never been a consultant, but I'm looking at another consultant, Booz Allen Hamilton symbol BAH. The consultants have really been just hammered over the past few months, including Booz Allen Hamilton because of their ties to the federal government. Booz Allen business is almost all tied to the government. They're a consultant that provides management and tech services to the federal government. It's one of the largest AI providers inside the federal government and has one of the largest cybersecurity operations globally. But with all the activity and all the conversation around doge and worries about cutbacks, especially in defense in civil agencies like Homeland Security and justice and others that booze Hamilton this is 100 year company has long called a client, and then the Secretary of Defense signing a memo of five billion in defense contract cutbacks. Things are not looking particularly bright for the likes of Booz Allen Hamilton and other consultants. Yet, they still have a very large backlog of 39 billion. They have a book to bill ratio of 1.4. That's the highest we've seen in six years. They have an expanded partnership in AWS. The stocks rebounded a little bit. They report earnings next week, team, I'm excited to hear what they have to say about those cutbacks and about their client interest in more demand for Booz Allen services. Dylan Lewis: Dan, a question about Booz Allen Hamilton ticker BAH. Dan Boyd: Not really a question, Dylan, more of a recollection. Back in the old days when I was dating, I ended up dating a few women who worked at Booz Allen Hamilton, and unfortunately, it didn't work out with any of them. I don't know. Is that a black mark against them? Could be. Dylan Lewis: It's not. You get a little dividend yield. They've increased 16% per year for the last five years, Dan. Wow. Dan, I don't know if the dividend yield is going to be enough to overcome your dating experience. Is Evolv Technology the one going on your watch list this week? Dan Boyd: It is, Dylan. Dylan Lewis: Dan, appreciate you and David, appreciate you bringing your stocks. That's going to do it for this week's spot for my radio show. Show is [inaudible] by Dan Boyd. I'm Dylan Lewis. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time. Andy Cross has positions in Apple and Chipotle Mexican Grill. Dan Boyd has positions in Chipotle Mexican Grill. David Meier has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Dylan Lewis has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Robert Brokamp has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Domino's Pizza, Nike, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends Booz Allen Hamilton, Cava Group, On Holding, Skechers U.s.a., and Under Armour and recommends the following options: short June 2025 $55 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Walmart's Warning; Money Tips for 2025 Grads was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
There Is No (Convenient) Alternative
In this podcast, Motley Fool analyst Asit Sharma and host Dylan Lewis discuss: Moody's downgrading U.S. debt, and why it's somewhere between a symbolic and a substantial update for investors. Whether the downgrade and "sell America" thinking mean international investors are rethinking whether there is no alternative (TINA) to the U.S. Coinbase joining the S&P 500, and crypto's continued march toward legitimacy. David Henkes, a restaurant industry expert and senior principal at Technomic, joins Motley Fool host Ricky Mulvey to talk about why more people are brown-bagging it for lunch, and what successful restaurants are getting right. To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy. A full transcript is below. Before you buy stock in Coinbase Global, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Coinbase Global wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $639,271!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $804,688!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 957% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 167% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025 This podcast was recorded on May 19, 2025. Dylan Lewis: Moody's joins the crowd on US debt. Motley Fool Money starts now. I'm Dylan Lewis, and I'm joined over the airwaves by Motley Fool analyst Asit Sharma. Asit, thanks for joining me today. Asit Sharma: Hey, Dylan, thanks for having me. Dylan Lewis: As we catch up on the news this Monday morning, the macro picture stays very much in the headline. Market starting up to week down a little bit after ratings agency Moody's downgraded US debt on Friday. Asit, SMP Fitch head downgraded US debt several years ago. Moody's finally joining them. Is this a symbolic change or is this a substantial change? Asit Sharma: I think it's in between, Dylan, so they changed the debt rating from A to as or AAA to Aa1. That's a slight difference, but it is a notch down, and it does join its peers, which had already taken VS out of their top-tier rating bucket. What does it mean? Well, Moody's pointed to higher interest rates and, of course, the burden of our increasing debt as a country. These are long-term things. Interest rates have been elevated now for a few years, and the debt has been around it feels like it's been around since I was born, only gotten more out of control. This shouldn't be a surprise to investors. In fact, after some initial I think Sellof in the futures this morning being stabilized a market realized, well, everyone knows the situation the US is in. It is still by far, the preeminent currency. In the world, the reserve currency, and there's still a lot of advantages to the US. It's not like it's a terminal problem, but one more sign that really from a policy basis, and this is going across multiple administrations from both parties, we've got to address our debt, and there are some other things you can read into it as well. A little bit of the volatility in the rollout of the tariffs that the Trump administration has passed through is playing into this as well. Dylan Lewis: I like that you talked a little bit about the long arc there. Moody's in a statement said, Hey, this is successive US administrations and Congress failing to agree on measures to reverse the trend of larger annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs. This is a problem that has been building for quite some time. It seems like both the rating agencies and the market are looking for some sign that deficit will get under control, and that would rebuild some of the confidence in US debt and make a little bit easier for the US to operate. Asit Sharma: I think that's exactly what the market is looking for. When you go back to the last time the US got its ratings cut from basically just flawless credit where it is today, which is still pretty good credit. It's just not thought of as being risk-free anymore. It was more about the inability of policymakers to even pass resolutions so that we can fund our own government. That was really what shook the markets last time around. Now this is acknowledging that we can't run these deficits forever. As a country, we've got to find a way to bring our debt relative to our GDP output back in line. It's a little high just now, and it's not something that we can't solve. We could do this, but what it's going to take is some pain. One thing that politicians don't like to pass downstream is sacrifice, pain, burden because they feel like they might not make it back into office when they're up for reelection. This is the key problem in the US economy. It's not really about the deficit. What it is, it's about politicians who are scared to come clean with the American public and say, Hey, we've got to make some sacrifices somewhere because this isn't sustainable. Dylan Lewis: When creditworthiness comes into question, we typically see yields on debt go up. We are seeing that the 30-year treasury spiked above 5% in the wake of this news. We talk about the federal government being the foundation for borrowing and for debt in the United States. What does it mean when something like this happens for companies and for borrowing in the grand scheme of corporate finance? Asit Sharma: It's tough because corporations utilize debt in two ways. We're all familiar with companies issuing bonds to finance expansion or maybe just to reshape a balance sheet. Everyone understands that only the best companies can access the bond markets at will when interest rates get elevated. But corporations use a lot of commercial paper, too. These short-term interest rates rising has made commercial paper more expensive. Even the everyday functionality that lots of corporations use as a form of liquidity becomes more expensive, which means then downstream, they've got to keep more of their own capital in their treasury accounts, which means the CFO somewhere is saying, I don't know if we can spend all this on capital investment this year, I need more money in the bank because I'm not paying X percent more interest on our overnight paper. It has all these weird follow-on effects that we rarely think about as investors, but it's just a slow drip drab of problems just as in the real world, for us, you see that 5% threshold being crossed for the 30-year, and then you're trying to buy a house, and you look and you're like, Whoa, what happened to long term mortgage rates? It looked like it was getting better. This is way too much. I'm going to hold back now, and maybe I'll keep renting for a while. We all feel it. Corporations feel it and citizens feel it. Dylan Lewis: It's the financial Rube Goldberg machine. It starts off in one spot and just works its way through everything else. Asit Sharma: Totally, you can't understand how it works looking at it. Dylan Lewis: After the tariff escalations in early April, there was this sell America concept, the Sell America trade that got a lot of noise in the market. This seems to have stoked that a little bit. For the longest time, for certainly most of my investing life, the acronym has been TINA. There is no alternative to investing in the US, and that the US market in particular is risk-free debt. Even with all these concerns, Asit, is there really an alternative? As people are seeing these headlines, is there somewhere else that investors are going to be looking to park their cash other than US treasuries, other than the US stock market? Asit Sharma: Dylan, there is no convenient alternative. Let's put it this way. If governments want to take the trouble, if corporations want to take the trouble. If the US public, which is a big buyer of US debt wants to take the trouble we don't need to buy these bonds. You can go buy German bonds, which are perfectly safe and almost seem attractive because while the German government has its share of political problems, it doesn't seem near as chaotic as we have been over the past six months or so. It's just something that as technology increases, corporations find it easier to look elsewhere. The markets are pretty liquid in Europe, and even some investors are looking to Asia to place money. I think in the future, what we're going to see is countries like China, which has for a long time, said they wouldn't mind breaking the dollar's dominance, cooperate with other brick nations. There's a whole chain of countries that want to be in on bricks, by the way. I think you'll see that, especially on the sovereign level, governments will take the trouble to utilize other currencies, A, for trade and B for what you're talking about, which is to park assets, to park sovereign assets instead of in the United States, do a little work and spread them out among a host of other countries that in the past just didn't seem viable, but a global trade, which is not going backwards, even albeit temporarily from US tariffs, the long term mark of that it's a very globalized society that we're going to live in from here on out. It is something that governments can consider. Now, to our advantage, you can't do this overnight. We got time to fix the problem, but come on, people. Come on, policymakers, we need to solve this and soon. Dylan Lewis: It's been a busy week for Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent. He has been taking questions on the country's debt, but also talking to leadership over at Walmart after the company made it clear in their earnings release, tariffs mean higher prices for consumers coming soon. As we were talking before we got on air, about how the tariff story and Walmart ties very directly into the deficit story and what we are seeing with US debt. Walk me through that. Asit Sharma: Walmart is a company that does about $680 billion worth of business in a year. That's the top line number, the revenue number. It also enjoys a really favorable tax rate as all US corporations do. Corporations got a tax break in the previous Trump administration, and that was set to roll back. What's happening now is, of course, we have this year's legislation, and it looks like those tax cuts will actually stay in place. There are some theories out there that point to how tariffs are related to the deficit, and that the imposition of tariffs is one way to bring money back into the country. I would say that Secretary Bessent would argue that it's not really about taxing the consumer, but it's having corporations pay their fair share once tariffs are imposed, which actually brings up something that many of us miss. When you read the headlines, it's all about China should eat the tariffs or the US citizens are going to eat the tariffs. Actually, there's that party, there's the intermediary between this foreign country that exports the goods and us who buy them, and that's a place like Walmart. By the Trump administration's eyes, Walmart should absorb this. I think President Trump used the word eat that they should eat the tariffs, and he points out that they have billions of dollars in profits. Now, before I get to those profits, we'll just take a step back here and say that this is one part of the puzzle to potentially reduce a deficit, which is to raise money by the imposition of tariffs. Now, it's not going to solve the problem because there are so many trillions involved, but it's one more way to bring in some revenue to the federal government. The two are related in that way, getting back to Walmart, though. This is a disciplined company that didn't get to be the biggest company buy sales on the planet by being undisciplined or not being focused or bending to anyone. It just asked Walmart suppliers. They know how to play hardball. I'm thinking about this. I don't know what the future is going to bring, Dylan, but I will say that Walmart has a very good argument to hold the line here, maybe, and push back against the Trump administration. It's about just basic economics. Walmart may sell so much each year, but their operating margin is only 4.3%. What that means is the Trump administration is very correct to say they're making billions of dollars, but they got this absolute scale where the revenue is so high, just a little bit of profit brings in billions of dollars to the bottom line. What happens if you break that equation and suddenly Walmart has to absorb 30% increases from the biggest flow where it gets its goods that we buy? They don't have a lot of wiggle room and very quickly, you could see if they just yielded wholesale to this proposition, all of that would evaporate, and they would be negative. They'd be losing billions of dollars. I think this sets up a very interesting dialogue. I don't know how much of it is going to be public. I think Walmart would prefer as you and I were chatting, before the show, for this not to be in the public eye, they would have these conversations behind the scenes with the US government, but it does set up an interesting push-and-pull to see where that line is where I think Walmart may concede a little bit and telegraph to the administration. Okay, we'll try to absorb some of this, but they have to stop at some point because ultimately they understand who really calls the shots, and that's the shareholders there. They're not going to like that share price going down. They're not going to like seeing profits evaporate. Dylan Lewis: Closing us out today on the news roundup. The S&P 500 is welcoming a new name today, crypto exchange, Coinbase joining the index. This feels like a little bit of a milestone moment for crypto, another step in legitimacy, and it's fitting in a way. Coinbase is joining the S&P 500 because Discover is leaving it. An Old Guard financial services company being acquired by Capital One, I love the symbolism of that, Asit, and just in terms of narrative arc, it is as Chef's Kiss Perfect as I could possibly structure it. Asit Sharma: It's like the thing that was the technology back in the day is being urged out the door. Come on, Grandpa. It's time for you to go you got the new thing here. Coinbase, you have to hand it to them. Whether you're a believer in crypto, this market over the long term, they have been very key in driving the industry forward, and they talk a lot on their calls about just this driving not just their top line, but utility across the whole ecosystem. The fact that when they discuss their earnings now, they talk not just about a global spot market for crypto, but also a derivatives market for crypto and the growth of stablecoins. All of the language of their earnings call, Dylan is just showing how far they have come as a business and how there's become a financial asset in the crypto world. We always thought that and we, being myself, maybe, and a few other people that I talk to because I'm not super knowledgeable about crypto. The folks that I have conferred with this on. I've always thought that utility was going to be the greatest driver in that all the crypto assets, derivative assets, digital assets that would make it would be very useful in some ways. But I think that the fact that coin base has joined the S&P 500 is a testament to just having a financial asset, something that people can turn to instead of, say, gold, had its own existence out there, and not everyone saw that. The trading volumes prove that out. Now, let me just argue against myself for 1 second. Even though you can say they've made it. Let's congrats to them. They've joined the club. I still think so much of this is driven by the success of Bitcoin and the trading volumes associated with that one asset. That's a risk with this business. It always has been. It may be that way for a long time. If you see another crypto winter could this be one of those companies that joined the S&P 500 and very quickly, just it felt like it was plateauing or even sagging a bit? That could happen, too. Dylan Lewis: I think the reality is, if you are a crypto lover, if you are a crypto hater if you own the index fund, you now own crypto exposure. It's as simple as that. Asit Sharma: Totally. Whether you like it or not, you're also a crypto investor, so there. Dylan Lewis: You and I, fellow crypto investors, Asit Sharma, thanks so much for joining me today. Asit Sharma: Thanks a lot for having me, Dylan. Dylan Lewis: Coming up on the show, times are tough for restaurants. Industry expert and principal at Technomic David Henkes joins my colleague Ricky Mulvey to talk through why more consumers are brown bagging it and what successful restaurants are doing right. Ricky Mulvey: David Henkes, senior principal at Technomic, and a global food and beverage industry trend watcher. Thanks for joining us again on Motley Fool Money. David Henkes: Sure, thanks for having me, Ricky. Appreciate it. Ricky Mulvey: So it's a tough time for restaurants. And I wanted to get you as soon as I saw this story last month in the Wall Street Journal, especially, I think it's continuing to play out in earnings for a lot of the large restaurant chains, which is that people aren't going out to lunch. Nationwide, the number of lunches bought from restaurants and other establishments fell 3% in 2024 from the year before to 19.5 billion. But that is important in context because that is fewer than were purchased even in 2020 in the middle of the pandemic. Now, people are going back to work, but fewer are going out to eat. David, any reflections on what's happening here? David Henkes: Well, I think there's a couple of things that you have to take into consideration, and the context for this is that the restaurant industry is struggling right now. There's been a lot of traffic issues. And so when you talk about the decline of lunch and the absolute number of meals consumed for lunch, you've got to look at it in the context of the broader industry. Where last year, if you look at the numbers that we publish or I think most other industry trend watchers, last year finished very weak for restaurants in particular. Big players like McDonald's had significant issues with traffic. Their sales numbers were much lower than they were in the last couple of years. And so, I think focusing on just lunch muddies the broader context, which is that consumers have really pulled back from restaurants over probably the last 12-18 months. When you look at the inflationary environment and menu price increases, menu prices are probably about 30-35% higher than they were pre-pandemic. What that's caused consumers to do even before the current situation that we've been in with the tariffs and all of the economic uncertainty that we're sitting in here today, is that over the last 12-18 months, consumers have really noticed higher prices and have pulled back. When you talk about lunch, lunch is one of those, I guess, easy day parts where you can replace it with a meal brought in, if you're brown bagging, if you're going into work. Certainly, when you look at office occupancy, we're getting back to pre-pandemic levels, but we're still not back there. There's a lot of bigger dynamics that are going on, and I think I've said a number of times that it's harder than ever to profitably run a restaurant in today's environment than in the 29 years that I've been doing this at Technomic. The lunch part is concerning, but I think the broader concern is just the consumer pullback that we've seen across the entirety of the restaurant industry. Ricky Mulvey: I have a theory on the consumer pullback, and it hit me when I was at, like, a fast-casual Mexican chain that is not Chipotle. I went up to order, and there was a screen that I was ordering at. There was one cashier on the other side, but I was ordering at a screen, and then I do my order, and it says, do you want to tip 18, 20, or 22%? This is being asked to me by the screen, and now I'm doing an algorithm in my head, algebra would be a better way of putting it, where I'm ordering at a screen, not with a human, but I know there's people making my food, and I know someone has to bring my food, but I also have to bus my own table. I think the food away from home cost may not account for the wider spread tipping culture, especially for fast-casual dining, which increases it I think even more. I don't know if tips are considered in the 30% from five years ago. David Henkes: No, actually, those are just menu prices. You're absolutely right. I think the US has a tip fatigue problem among a lot of consumers right now, and I think that happened during the pandemic when every restaurant that was open and we wanted to support restaurants and service workers, and so people were willing to tip extra, and so we developed this tipping culture during COVID, which really has stayed with us. When you talk about menu price increases, and listen, labor costs are one of the Top 2 costs that restaurants have, and they've continued to rise, and minimum wage pressures and all of that that are going up, and so there's no question that restaurants, if they can, they'd love to push a little bit more of that back onto the consumer. Historically, though, fast food or limited-service restaurants haven't been a tipping establishment. Tend to find it in full-service sit-down restaurants. I think where people 3, 4, 5 years ago were happy to tip, they've gotten very fatigued by that, and I think that's an additional pullback that we're seeing, where in addition to all of these higher prices that you're seeing just on the menu, and maybe some additional fees or things that are now on the menu, you are also being asked to tip everywhere for a coffee, for a muffin. Obviously, you're tipping the machine basically when you're ordering at the kiosk. I think a lot of people certainly look at the economics of running a restaurant and say, why can't you pay a living wage to your workers so that it's not being pushed back to me? It's challenging because the economics of running a restaurant are really hard. To the extent that you can offer those tips and, hopefully, drive some of your employee satisfaction to a greater extent, then that's a win for the restaurants. But it really has turned off a lot of consumers, for sure. Ricky Mulvey: The winners and losers are not even here. Is this still a big problem for the major chains that you follow a Technomic is the pain more acute for the smaller restaurants that don't have that ability to negotiate with suppliers quite like a Chipotle can? David Henkes: Listen, I think the pain is being most acutely felt by the smaller mom-and-pop independent restaurants. Just because you're right. They don't have the financial wherewithal, the negotiating power, they don't have the ability to invest in technology, and some of the things that help alleviate some of these cost concerns. But listen, we just released our chain data. In 2024, we tracked over 1,500 chains. We published the Top 500 of them in what's called our Top 500 Report. Chains had probably one of the worst years that we've seen in the last, I don't know, decade. Chains were only up about 3% last year. It's a substantial slowdown from what we've seen. I think this consumer pullback is real and it's impacting certainly the independence, and I think from a margin in profitability, we're seeing that from independence, but it's certainly hitting the chains. Last year, you had over 30 restaurant company bankruptcies. That's continued here into the first quarter of 2025. The big chains aren't immune from it. Really, then I think the exception proves the rule when you see great performers like a Texas Roadhouse or a Chili's who are just killing it. Those are really the standouts, but the rank and file of a lot of chains, up to and including McDonald's and some of the other ones are really struggling in this environment, and the consumer pullback is real. Ricky Mulvey: Even Chipotle was surprising to me. I want to get to Texas Roadhouse and Chili's in a sec. I probably at Chipotle once a week, so I'm definitely biased there, but I can get a good bowl of food for 12 bucks, I know what I'm getting, and yet fewer people are going there because of the price increases. Now, I know they've increased prices, but that one, even where there's a really strong perceived value there, at least for me, and I think for a lot of people, is experiencing that decline. Are you seeing any traffic numbers or same-store sales data that is surprising to you as a trend watcher here? David Henkes: Well, I think we're increasingly seeing winners and losers. Some of the things that have been most surprising to me, again, Chili's, the last two quarters have posted basically right around 31% same-store sales. That is unheard of for high-flying chains, much less a legacy casual dining chain. Chili's is one that we just continue to look at as executing on all cylinders. They are doing phenomenally well. I think Taco Bell is one that they posted 9% same-store sales this most recent quarter, first quarter after being up 5%, 4%, but they've been doing really well. McDonald's was down about 3.5% last quarter, Starbucks continues to struggle, they were down 2%. A lot of what are the biggest chains in the industry are having value issues, they're having traffic issues. Some of the smaller chains, and some of them don't publicly report, but we've been very high on a lot of these beverage players, Dutch Bros, some of these non-Starbucks coffee or beverage chains that are doing really well. Last year, we saw, a bunch of these chains that just did really well, 7 Brew and Swig, which does the dirty sodas, things like that. I think it's a tough time for legacy brands, and I think consumers are voting with their wallets, and they're trying to say, I have fewer dining occasions today than I did a year ago, and so I want to pick those establishments that are my favorites or that I know I'm going to get a great value. Value, by the way, is not necessarily lowest price, but they want a great value. We're not in a situation where rising tide is lifting everybody anymore, we're in a situation where the industry is flat to maybe slightly down, and you really start to see those winners that are standing above and beyond everybody else because of what they offer to the consumer. I think, same-store sales are certainly part of it, and you can look down the list and see who's performing. But, again, Chili's, Taco Bell are the ones just as I'm looking at. You can look at maybe a handful of chains that are outperforming in this market. But for the most part, it's flat to down when you look at most of the big public company chain reports and what their same-store sales are. Ricky Mulvey: Dutch Bros is the one that continues to surprise me. I went there one time, I think I got a chocolate-covered strawberry mocha. Saw on the menu, they have a 911 drink, where you can get six shots of espresso in one drink. But people like it. I see lines outside the door at eight o'clock. Anyway, Chili's. Chili's is the incredible one to me, 31% from a year ago. I think they were growing since then, too. Three for me deal. Can't go wrong with that. I think you get chips and salsa, burger, fries for 10 bucks. I was pretty happy with it. You look at Chili's versus Applebee's. Applebee's is not enjoying a similar level of growth, even though on the surface, you would think they're having a pretty similar offering. What has Chili's been able to figure out in this environment that many other chains have not? David Henkes: We've done a fairly deep dive into Chili's, and actually, some of our sister publications have awarded the CEO with Restaurant Tour of the Year. Obviously, they're doing a really great job. They are relevant to, I think, the younger consumers. I've got a couple kids in their 20s who Chili's is now on their radar again. Ten years ago, if you asked a younger person to go to a chain, they would have been like, no way, there's no chance. They've become relevant again. A lot of that is through their social media marketing. Certainly, the value promotions, the margarita promotions they run are really successful. But they do a great job of having a barbell strategy. They do have a lot of low-priced or value-oriented type things, but you can also have a premium experience if you want. I think there's a lot of chains doing that, and I don't want to over-commit to that's why they're doing well, but I think they've just remained relevant. I think the big part of what they do is, I've talked a lot about the general manager and how important the general manager is in setting the tone for the service, the overall experience that patrons have when they come in because a lot of your experience is not just how much you paid or what the food was because a lot of these casual dining chains are in that ballpark, but it's also the experience you have through servers. Chili's has done a great job of really giving their general managers the ability to fix things within their own restaurant. They've invested heavily in their GMs and the labor situation, and training, I think, in different ways than some of their competitors have because you're right, Friday's, Applebee's, some of these other casual dining chains that you would say, they all play in the same sandbox, if nothing else. They are not doing nearly as well. Chili's last year was up 15%. If I look at Applebee's, they were down 6%, Friday's was even lower. Chili's has done a great job through relevance, through marketing, social media, menu development, menu relevance, and service and ambiance to really set the tone for what a casual dining restaurant should be in 2025. Ricky Mulvey: Then as we close out, I saw on your X account that key lime pie is in your Top 3 desserts. Citrus with dairy, a little controversial. I was surprised to see that. Key lime pie, happy to see it show up, but it's not something you really crave. I guess, you got a wild mind here, David. What's your Top 3 desserts? David Henkes: I love a good cheesecake. In my mind, that key lime pie is an elevated, I know they're not the same, but it's the same type of experience with a little bit of a sour. I was down in Key West about a year and a half ago, two years ago, and I had some of the fresh key lime. Birthplace of key lime pie, and it was just delicious. I think if I had to look at my Top 3, that's a great question. I'm not a big sweet guy. I'm more of a savory guy. My wife really loves the sweets, and I'm more of a salty, savory-type things. Brownies ice cream, I like, I'll eat it. But I think key lime pie, it's definitely up there for me. Obviously, it's controversial, you don't appreciate it. What's your top dessert or there are tight up there . Ricky Mulvey: I appreciate it. I'm a sweets guy, so I appreciate the key lime pie. No disrespect to the key lime pie. You know what? I don't think Dulce de leche gets enough, love. I love Dulce de leche. Great. I'm going to take Jenny's Take 5 great ice cream. Very specific. Then the classic s'more. When you're building up to that outside time and you got a campfire going, s'mores are coming, that's when the hype cycle is coming. I'll go with those Top 3. David Henkes: I'll tell you, one other thing that I will throw in, and I was just in Europe on vacation a couple of weeks ago. The gelato in Europe is phenomenal. I might put that. It's got to be a very specific gelato because the stuff you get here in the States is not as great. But if you're over, and I was in Portugal and Spain, and some of the gelato that I had there was just second to none. It was phenomenal. Ricky Mulvey: I really got to travel to get the desserts to you like. I got to go to Key West and I got to go to Europe. [laughs] You're making it tough on the listener. David Henkes, Senior Principal at Technomic. Thank you for your time and your insight. Appreciate you joining us on Motley Fool Money. Ricky Mulvey: Thanks for having me, Ricky. Dylan Lewis: Listeners, a quick programming note as we wrap up today's show. This is my last Monday episode here in the host seat. I'll be wrapping up my time here at Fool later this week and I have one more radio show ahead of me with the team this Friday. I've been lucky enough to be here over a decade and been honored to be one of the many voices here at TMF that you turn to for a Foolish take on what's going on in the market, whether it was here on Motley Fool Money or way back in the day on Industry Focus. I'm going to miss chatting with our analysts and hearing from you all in our mailbag and on our voice mail, but I'm excited to flip over from host to listener. We talk about it often here, time is the most valuable thing you have. The biggest tool in your investing life, and it's the most valuable resource in your personal life. Thank you for all the time you spent with me over the years. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy something based on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content provided for information purposes only. See our full advertising disclosure. Please check out the show notes. For the Motley Fool Money team, I'm Dylan Lewis. We'll be back tomorrow. Asit Sharma has positions in McDonald's. Dylan Lewis has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Ricky Mulvey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill, Coinbase Global, Moody's, Starbucks, and Texas Roadhouse. The Motley Fool recommends Dutch Bros and recommends the following options: short June 2025 $55 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. There Is No (Convenient) Alternative was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
