Latest news with #E-miniS&P
Globe and Mail
01-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Futures Settle at Post-Tariff Highs, Eyes on Core PCE and Big Tech Earnings
Spotify falls after earnings. Bill Baruch joins CNBC's Halftime to break down why he's still in. E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday's close: Settled at 5583.75, up 30.75 NQ, yesterday's close: Settled at 19,642.00, up 114.00 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures settled yesterday at the highest level since the April 2 nd tariff announcement. The White House's softer tone on trade was furthered when President Trump signed an order to lessen the impact of auto tariffs. Commerce Secretary Lutnick also noted a trade deal has been reached with one nation, but we await further details. The indices have been buoyant, finding additional tailwinds from strong earnings, but this will be tested today. CAT reported a miss on earnings and revenue but kept its full-year outlook, the stock is +2% premarket. MSFT and META report after the bell. The first look at jobs is due with the private ADP survey at 7:15 am CT, followed by the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Index, at 7:30 am CT. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished strongly yesterday but have not been able to decisively pierce strong resistance. For the E-mini S&P, this is major three-star resistance at 5578.75-5584.50. As for the E-mini NQ, it has closed in on its April 2 nd gap settlement, marking a significant area of overhead resistance. Upon a pullback, we have first and second key support aligned with yesterday's midday ranges. However, we do not want to see a violation of major three-star support at… Want to keep up with the market? Subscribe to our daily Morning Express for essential insights into stocks and equities, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and more. Get expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up for Free Futures Market Research – Blue Line Futures Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA's regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition. With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@ or call us at 312- 278-0500 Performance Disclaimer Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Globe and Mail
01-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
S&P and NQ Extend Gains, But Risks Loom with Heavy Calendar
Buying Relative Outperformance: Early this week Bill Baruch of Blue Line Capital bought these three names, find out why. E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, last week's close: Settled at 5549.75, up 38.50 on Friday and 237.00 on the week NQ, last week's close: Settled at 19,535.25, up 213.25 on Friday and 1,154.50 on the week E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished last week on firm footing as the White House's narrative on trade softened a bit and earnings season got off to a strong start. Although we remain upbeat, much of this can shift instantly. On one front, there are two factions within the White House: that of Treasury Secretary Bessent, who is more in tune with a cohesive market environment, and that of Trade Representative Navarro, a vocal China hawk. On the other front, earnings have been good, but 36% of S&P companies report this week. Names like UPS, KO, V, SBUX, and CAT lead the list over the next 48 hours, before MSFT and META report Wednesday after the bell. Additionally, there is a deluge of economic data this week: Core PCE Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing Thursday, and Nonfarm Payrolls Friday. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures battled off support early Friday and have so far carved a path of higher lows on today's session. First key support in the S&P comes in at 5511.25-5516.25, and below there is 5497.75-5499.75, before additional support aligns with Friday's low. Both indices are out above our Pivot and point of balance ahead of the opening bell. We believe holding above here will invite a continuation of momentum, with these levels coming in for the E-mini S&P at… Want to keep up with the market? Subscribe to our daily Morning Express for essential insights into stocks and equities, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and more. Get expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered straight to your inbox. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA's regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition. With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@ or call us at 312- 278-0500 Performance Disclaimer Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Globe and Mail
17-04-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
NQ Slammed Again, But E-mini S&P Clings to Crucial Support
Tune in daily to catch Bill Baruch dissecting the day's market happenings after the bell rings. Gain insightful analysis and stay ahead in the financial game with Bill as your guide! Do not miss Bill Baruch's daily video posted to his Twitter (X), LinkedIn, and Instagram after the close, follow him at @Bill_Baruch. E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday's close: Settled at 5305.75, down 122.50 NQ, yesterday's close: Settled at 18,385.25, down 575.00 At times, there is nowhere to hide. Tech was tagged yesterday with NVDA -6.9%, and names like AAPL, MSFT, and META all down more than 3%. Even Telecom Services, which have been sticky, slipped. Although health insurers dodged yesterday's fallout, they are down even more sharply after UNH lowered its full-year profit forecast. The stock is -20% premarket, and the sector has followed. Remember, futures are closed tomorrow for Good Friday. On the economic calendar, Jobless Claims remain resilient, coming in below expectations at 215k versus 225k. Building Permits and Housing Starts were mixed. Philly Fed Manufacturing whiffed at -26.4, the worst since April 2023, which may allude to some seasonality. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures traded sharply lower after Fed Chair Powell said yesterday that the bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates. E-mini NQ futures were under heavy pressure all session, but Powell's comments opened the door to the E-mini S&P, too. However, when things looked bleak in the final hour, major three-star support at 5251.50-5262.25 held perfectly, and the response has been buoyant so far. Price action above our Pivot and point of balance in the E-mini S&P will help signal whether this buoyancy can continue into the final closing bell of the week, with that level coming in at….. Want to keep up with the market? Subscribe to our daily Morning Express for essential insights into stocks and equities, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and more. Get expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up for Free Futures Market Research – Blue Line Futures Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA's regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition. With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@ or call us at 312- 278-0500 Performance Disclaimer Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. This article contains syndicated content. We have not reviewed, approved, or endorsed the content, and may receive compensation for placement of the content on this site. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Globe and Mail
16-04-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Stocks Retreat on Weakness in Chip Makers
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -1.24%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.64%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.98%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25) are down -1.25%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM25) are down -2.01%. Stock indexes today are trading lower, weighed down by losses in chip stocks. ASML Holding NV is down more than -6% after reporting that Q1 bookings were below consensus. Also, Nvidia is down more than -7% after the US government barred the sale of its H20 chips to China, with Nvidia saying the ban will cost it $5.5 billion in Q1 tied to inventory and commitments for the chip. Stock losses deepened today after the WTO cut its 2025 global trade estimates. Today's US economic news was mostly better than expected and was a supportive factor for stocks. Stocks also found some support from a Bloomberg report that said China wants to see a number of steps from the Trump administration before it will agree to trade talks, including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of his cabinet. US MBA mortgage applications fell -8.5% in the week ended April 11, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -4.8% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -12.4%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +20 bp to 6.81% from 6.61% in the prior week. US March retail sales rose +1.4% m/m, right on expectations and March retail sales ex-autos rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m. US March manufacturing production rose +0.3% m/m, slightly stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m. The World Trade Organization (WTO) cut its 2025 global trade forecast to a -0.2% decline from a November forecast of up +3.0% and warned if the US pushes ahead with reciprocal tariffs, global trade will contract -1.5% this year. Last Friday, President Trump said he would temporarily exempt consumer electronics from reciprocal tariffs and the baseline 10% global tariffs. However, a 20% tariff still applies to electronics shipped from China. Last Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal tariffs on 56 nations but left the new 10% baseline tariff on virtually all nations in place. Meanwhile, the EU last Thursday said it will delay for 90 days the implementation of 25% tariffs on 21 billion euros worth of US goods sent to Europe. Stocks have been under pressure over the past five weeks due to fears that US tariffs will weaken economic growth and corporate earnings. On March 4, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and doubled the tariff on Chinese goods to 20% from 10%. On April 2, President Trump signed a proclamation to implement a 25% tariff on US auto imports. The tariffs will initially target vehicles fully assembled outside the US and, by May 3, will expand to include automobile parts made outside the US. On April 5, a 10% baseline tariff for virtually all nations took effect. Last Friday, China raised tariffs on all US goods to 125% from 84% in retaliation for the US raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. The US tariff turmoil has undercut the dollar and boosted gold. The dollar index last Friday sank to a 3-year low, and gold prices soared to an all-time high. The markets are concerned about the effects of US trade policies, which have caused consumer confidence to plummet and have prompted many companies to suspend their capital spending plans, a negative factor for GDP growth. Also, the dollar is facing a confidence crisis as the US weaponizes tariffs, diminishing the dollar's reserve-currency status and prompting some foreign investors to liquidate their dollar assets. The markets will focus on US trade policy news during this holiday-shortened week. Later today, Fed Chair Powell will speak before the Economic Club of Chicago about the economic outlook. On Thursday, Mar housing starts are expected to fall -5.7% m/m to 1.416 million, and Mar building permits are expected -0.6% m/m to 1.450 million. The markets are discounting the chances at 19% for a -25 bp rate cut after the May 6-7 FOMC meeting. Q1 earnings reporting season began last Friday as big US banks reported their results. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, the market consensus is for Q1 year-over-year earnings growth of +6.7% for the S&P 500 stocks, down from expectations of +11.1% in early November. Full-year 2025 corporate profits for the S&P 500 are seen rising +9.4%, down from the forecast of +12.5% in early January. Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.48%. China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 1-1/2 week high and closed up +0.26%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.01%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM2 5) today are up +3 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.2 bp to 4.321%. June T-notes today are slightly higher, garnering carryover support from rallies in European government bonds after UK March consumer prices rose less than expected. T-notes also have support from Tuesday when US Deputy Treasury Secretary Faukender said a rule change was under consideration that could lower trading costs for banks, which could boost liquidity in the Treasury market. Gains in T-notes are limited today after US March retail sales rose as expected and March manufacturing production rose more than expected. Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $13 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today. European bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-week low of 2.479% and is down -3.3 bp to 2.502%. The 10-year UK gilt yield slid to a 1-week low of 4.571% and is down -4.2 bp to 4.606%. UK Mar CPI rose 2.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.7% y/y. Mar core CPI rose +3.4% y/y, right on expectations. Swaps are discounting the chances at 99% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the April 17 policy meeting. US Stock Movers Chip stocks are falling today and are weighing on the broader market. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after the US government banned it from selling its H20 chip to China. Also, ASML Holding NV (ASML) is down more than -5% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q1 bookings. Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Broadcom (AVGO) are down more than -3%, and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), KLA Corp (KLAC), Intel (INTC), GlobalFoundries (GFS), and Micron Technology (MU) are down more than -2%. The Magnificent Seven stocks are falling today and are pressuring the broader market. Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and Microsoft (MSFT) are down more than -2%. Also, (AMZN) is down more than -1%. Today's +1% gain in WTI crude oil is lifting energy producers. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is up more than +3%, and Diamondback Energy (FANG) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Devon Energy (DVN), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +2%. In addition, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Phillips 66 (PSX), Conoco Phillips (COP), Haliburton (HAL), and Schlumberger (SLB) are up more than +1%. Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) is down more than -6% after reporting Q1 total net interest income of $770 million, below the consensus of $794.3 million. JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) is down more than -4% after reporting Q1 Final Mile Services revenue of $200.7 million, weaker than the consensus of $220 million. AGCO Corp (AGCO) is down more than -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $75. Omnicom Group (OMC) is down more than -2% after reporting a Q1 operating profit of $452.6 million, weaker than the consensus of $485.1 million. Travelers Cos (TRV) is up more than 3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials after reporting Q1 core EPS of $1.91, well above the consensus of 74 cents. Autoliv (ALV) is up more than +5% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.15, well above the consensus of $1.65. Newmont (NEM) is up more than +3% after BMO Capital Markets reinstated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform with a price target of $63. Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up more than +1% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $575. Earnings Reports (4/16/2025) Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Alcoa Corp (AA), Bank OZK (OZK), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG), Commerce Bancshares Inc/MO (CBSH), CSX Corp (CSX), First Horizon Corp (FHN), First Industrial Realty Trust (FR), FNB Corp/PA (FNB), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), Progressive Corp/The (PGR), Prologis Inc (PLD), Rexford Industrial Realty Inc (REXR), Synovus Financial Corp (SNV), Travelers Cos Inc/The (TRV), US Bancorp (USB).
Globe and Mail
16-04-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Too Quiet? AI Chip Curbs Ignite Selling—Can Bulls Bounce Back?
Tune in daily to catch Bill Baruch breaking down the day's market events after the bell. Gain insightful analysis and stay ahead in the financial game with Bill as your trusted guide! Experience Bill Baruch's daily market breakdowns with insightful analysis and key updates. Find his videos on Twitter (X), LinkedIn, and Instagram after the close—just follow @Bill_Baruch to stay ahead of the curve! S&P, yesterday's close: Settled at 5428.25, down 12.50 NQ, yesterday's close: Settled at 18,960.25, up 25.50 Things were quiet yesterday, too quiet. That quickly changed after the closing bell when Washington announced new export controls on AI chips, limiting sales to China. This marks a $5.5 billion hit to NVDA's revenue, and the stock is down more than -6% premarket. While the sector is under pressure, AMD is the other seeing the brunt of the pain -7% on the news. Also, ASML missed revenues and is -4%. We look to earnings from TSM overnight tonight. A deluge of economic data out of China last night was broadly positive with Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, and Retail Sales topping estimates. GDP y/y beat at 5.4% versus 5.2%, but q/q was light at 1.2% versus 1.4%. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are under pressure this morning, breaking below Friday's settlement at 5391, a level that buoyed waves of selling Monday in the E-mini S&P. This mark stands as our Pivot and point of balance, and it will be critical for the bulls to not let the tape create separation as selling could invite more selling in the near-term. Our Pivot and point of balance in the E-mini NQ comes in at… Want to keep up with the market? Subscribe to our daily Morning Express for essential insights into stocks and equities, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and more. Get expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up for Free Futures Market Research – Blue Line Futures Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA's regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition. With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@ or call us at 312- 278-0500 Performance Disclaimer Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
