Latest news with #EAOs
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First Post
5 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Arakan Army is key to India's Myanmar strategy: Time to acknowledge it
The successful completion of the Kaladan project is much more than just a 'friendship treaty' between India and Myanmar. It could become the axis around which India manages the growing instability on its northeastern borders read more This week, the Minister of Shipping, Sarbananda Sonowal, announced that the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) will be operational by 2027. The project aims to connect the eastern Indian seaport of Kolkata with Sittwe in Rakhine State of Myanmar by sea. Further, in Myanmar, it will link Sittwe to Paletwa in Chin State via the Kaladan river route, and from Paletwa to Zorinpui in Mizoram, India by road. Funded by the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, the project has faced considerable roadblocks since 2010. Aimed at reducing the distance from Kolkata to Sittwe by 1,328 km and creating an alternative route to the Siliguri Corridor, the critical Paletwa-to-Zorinpui road is yet to be completed, even though the Sittwe port received its first cargo ships from India in 2023. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Sonowal also stated that the 'Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project is the result of the India–Myanmar Friendship Treaty. This is a strategic initiative to enhance connectivity between India's northeast and Myanmar'. To this end, the Shipping Ministry has invested Rs 1,000 crore in developing the waterways for the project. However, since the military-led coup in Myanmar (2021), the future of KMMTTP has seemed uncertain, irrespective of the money injected into it. More from Opinion Tesla touches down, but will it build in India? In post-coup Myanmar, various Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) have emerged as powerful military and political forces crucial to the country's future. Some are fighting for federalism, others for autonomy from the Tatmadaw. Their need to retain territorial control has ensured that conflict remains perpetual. Substantial territory is controlled by the EAOs—some estimates suggest almost 50 per cent—though the majority of the population still lives in Tatmadaw-controlled areas. There are over two hundred EAOs in the country. However, not all EAOs have equal influence, territory, training, or weaponry. Some have also clashed with each other over territorial control. But within this complex mosaic of EAOs and the fight for territory, it is one of the youngest EAOs that has emerged as the most influential. In Rakhine State, where the KMMTTP is situated, the Arakan Army (AA) controls most of the state. Established in 2009 with a strength of just 25, it was founded on the 'Way of the Rakhita' or the Arakan Dream. The group envisions establishing an independent Arakan nation, evoking memories of the once-powerful Arakan Kingdom (1425–1785). With a strength of 30,000 soldiers, the AA is a sophisticated militia that provides training to other smaller EAOs, stationing nearly 6,000 soldiers across territories controlled by their allies. Its young, dynamic leadership, such as Maj. Gen. Twan Mrat Naing, is known for its extensive networks across Myanmar and internationally. The AA is extremely popular among locals and has managed to capture most of Rakhine State and Paletwa in neighbouring Chin State. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Interestingly, out of the 18 townships in Rakhine, 15 are under AA control. However, Sittwe (the capital of Rakhine), Kyaukphyu (where China has critical investments), and the island of Manaung (due to its geostrategic location) remain untouched. One argument is that these territories remain untouched because the AA lacks naval power, unlike the Tatmadaw. While that may be true, there has also been news of the Chinese resuming construction near Kyaukphyu port after striking a deal with the AA to provide protection for Chinese construction workers. It was in 2023 that the China-backed Three Brotherhood Alliance—comprising the MNDAA, Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army—launched the highly successful Operation 1027 against the Tatmadaw. At the time, China was interested in pressuring the Tatmadaw to curb illegal gambling and cyber-scam operations in northern Shan State, which were directly impacting Chinese citizens. But after securing the Tatmadaw's compliance, China swiftly adjusted its approach by exerting influence on key EAOs as well as the Tatmadaw, even appointing a Special Envoy for negotiations between them. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD China's primary interest in a stable Myanmar is to limit Western influence and ensure the security of its infrastructure projects, such as the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port, power plant, and oil and gas pipelines. Their success in brokering deals with both the Tatmadaw and the AA—reportedly including allowing Chinese security personnel to protect these assets—should be a cause of concern for India. On the other hand, India has taken a measured approach to Myanmar, keeping communication channels open with the State Administration Council (SAC), the governing body of the Tatmadaw, while also providing humanitarian aid after the massive 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit the country on March 28, 2025. India has investments not just in KMMTTP but also in the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway. However, beyond focusing on infrastructure completion and security, India's Myanmar policy should now be driven by the need to secure its northeastern borders—leveraging the on-ground reality that Chinese influence in Myanmar is disliked by large sections of the local population. The ultra-nationalist Tatmadaw and China have had strained relations in the past, and even today, the relationship remains transactional. In contrast, India enjoys a unique cultural and historical connection that can serve as a special pivot. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD To this end, India's engagement with major independent stakeholders in Myanmar is unlikely to face opposition. India could begin with the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine State. To find a middle path, one must read between the lines. It is possible that the AA is deliberately refraining from advancing on the three critical revenue-generating townships—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung—not merely because of naval limitations, but also to use them as leverage with external stakeholders like China and India, as well as with the Tatmadaw. They may be aiming to negotiate a revenue-sharing model. In this scenario, the Tatmadaw and the AA could reach a mutual understanding that includes a federal system with an Arakanese Chief Minister—a demand even the National League for Democracy (NLD) failed to deliver. This is where India could play the role of a mediator—not only positioning itself positively among the Arakanese but also building trust with the SAC. The successful completion of the KMMTTP project is much more than just a 'friendship treaty' between India and Myanmar. It could become the axis around which India manages the growing instability on its northeastern borders. India must recognise that the 'strategic initiative', as highlighted by Sonowal, is not limited to finding an alternative to the Siliguri Corridor or merely countering China—it is also essential for the Arakan Army and the people of Rakhine State. The last leg of the project, from Paletwa to Zorinpui, will allow for the supply of essential goods such as food, construction materials, and medical aid. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD If India truly wishes to rise as a regional power, it must ensure that the KMMTTP is completed swiftly. Rami Niranjan Desai is a scholar of India's Northeast and neighbourhood. She is a columnist and author and presently works as Distinguished Fellow at India Foundation, New Delhi. She recently undertook a fieldtrip to Myanmar. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
AllAfrica
28-06-2025
- Politics
- AllAfrica
Peace theater of the absurd in Myanmar
Myanmar's State Administration Council (SAC) military regime is gearing up for elections, slated to held by the end of 2025. As part of the preparations, the junta conducted a three-day 'Peace Forum' in Naypyidaw, even as the city recovers from the devastating Mandalay earthquake in late March. In attendance were the top military leadership, diplomats, regime officials, political party leaders, signatories to the now moribund 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and a range of dignitaries and emissaries from China, India, Thailand, Russia and other states. The forum's theme was 'to examine how peacebuilding and credible elections can promote national development and state stability, ultimately laying the groundwork for united Myanmar (sic), fostering continuous, inclusive dialogue and strategic partnerships, engaging all stakeholders to identify concrete, people-centered pathways forward.' For anyone with even a passing knowledge of contemporary Myanmar, this is parallel reality delusion. The country has been in a downward spiral of war, economic decline and instability since the coup of 2021. There is no scope for peacebuilding, credible elections are a contradiction in terms, there is no unity and the only effective strategic partners are the many ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and their People's Defense Force (PDF) allies working to topple the Myanmar military. Coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's speech, which largely conformed to most of his messaging in the first half of this year, claimed that new elections and a peace process were prerequisites for future stability and development. He said, 'to ensure broader representation of diverse groups, such as various parties and ethnic groups, I have stated that in the upcoming election at the end of this year, in addition to the currently used first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, a proportional representation (PR) system will also be applied in a mixed format.' The SAC also plans to conduct elections in phases around the country, almost certainly due to the poor security conditions in well over half the nations. There will likely be no elections in Rakhine state, northern Shan state and most of eastern Myanmar as anti-SAC armed groups hold sway there. And, of course, the coup-toppled National League for Democracy (NLD) will be barred from participating. After his speech and obligatory photo-op with attendees, Min Aung Hlaing then jumped on a plane to Belarus and Russia for his third trip there this year. The SAC-run state media provided far more coverage of the senior general's travels than his Peace Forum, including his visit to the Belmedpreparaty pharmaceutical factory in Minsk and an economic forum in St Petersburg. Chinese attendance at the Peace Forum was no surprise, with the Special Envoy for Asian Affairs, Deng Xijun, who has visited Myanmar a number of times, and three academics, Xiong Shunqing, Kong Peng from Yunnan University and Jia Yu from Peking University in the lineup. Beijing, of course, doesn't believe in peace or elections; it just wants some semblance of stability and a pathway to reform. Some Myanmar opposition figures contend that China views the elections as a way to sideline Min Aung Hlaing, who they sense Beijing neither favors nor trusts, and wants to find future leaders more amenable to reality. China has also had to contend with the aftermath of Operation 1027, which saw multiple armed groups capture large amounts of territory along the Myanmar-China border in northern Myanmar, and the Arakan Army (AA) surrounding its pipeline and other infrastructure projects in Rakhine state. Min Aung Hlaing may also have added a slight, veiled rebuke to China in his speech. 'The negotiation of peace needs to be free of foreign interference and internal instigation and harassment…(r)egarding international relations, while it is necessary to be in solidarity with countries around the world, special care must be taken not to become dominated or influenced by others.' While non-interference is a routine feature of the regime's authoritarian leaders' oeuvre, he could have been referencing China's role in brokering the return of the city of Lashio from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which the insurgent group captured in mid-2024, as well as China's relations with other armed groups in the north. Thailand's attendees included Sihasak Phuangketkeow, former deputy foreign minister, and Nothapol Booningam, former chief of staff of the Royal Thai Army. China and Thailand have been the two neighboring states most directly affected by the 2021 coup and the armed revolution against the Myanmar military. Their attendance should thus not indicate unconditional endorsement of the SAC's election agenda but rather a careful diplomatic balancing act to find pathways forward for their respective security and economic interests. But the neighbor to watch the most is India, which has been a horribly bad-faith actor in post-coup Myanmar. Indian attendees included a senior diplomat, Jaideep Mazumdar, and several Indian journalists. At the same time as the Peace Forum, pictures obtained by The Irrawaddy showed several Myanmar peace brokers attending a recent event at the Indian Embassy in Yangon, including representatives of the Swiss-based Center for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD Center) mediation outfit. India will likely be one of the key international supporters of the elections. It is also likely Myanmar is using Indian inspired, and possibly supplied, electronic voting machines for the projected polls. Joining the Peace Forum by Zoom was the far-right Russian philosopher Aleksandr Gelyevich Dugin, a purportedly close advisor to Vladimir Putin and proponent of a school of thought called 'Eurasianism.' Dugin is also the author of a recent book about Donald Trump called 'The Trump Revolution-A New Order of Great Powers.' The SAC is thus listening to some particularly unhinged views as it stumbles towards elections and continues its ingratiation with Putin's Russia. Also in attendance was a European called 'Professor' Lorenzo Maria Pacini, who claims to be an associate professor at 'SUPDI-Distance Private University in Zud' in Switzerland. It is not clear this is a genuine university. One of his online bio's claims he has a doctorate from 'UniToscana – Leonardo Da Vinci University in Zurich in Political Philosophy' on Aleksandr Dugin's 'political metaphysics.' He is further described as 'a Tuscan from a noble family, (who) has always been a thought rebel…(j)ournalist, publisher, musician, Taekwondo and Archery athlete, he also does professional consulting, analysis and holistic therapies.' A real Renaissance man, but it's not apparent what expertise he has on peace and elections in Myanmar. How did someone like this get to a Peace Forum in Naypyidaw, and who paid for him? Some of the guest speakers from Thailand, China and India have sound connections and credentials, but the SAC is obviously scraping the bottom of the barrel to find Westerners to attend their 'peace' events. The regime also trotted out its pathetic hired henchmen, Hla Maung Shwe, Zaw Oo and Aung Naing Oo, whose collective credibility was shredded years ago during the 2012-2015 peace process under former President Thein Sein. Chairman of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), Khin Yi, which is the SAC's designated party to contest the elections, is also a prominent SAC figure to watch. Other notable actors in the charade include former prominent political dissident Ko Ko Gyi, chair of the People's Party, which has registered to contest the elections, and a number of other political parties from over 50 that plan to run in the polls. Leaders of armed groups who signed the 2015 NCA always attend these events, like wooden props, with a total lack of legitimacy and no support from their ethnic communities, which have been dramatically transformed by four years of war. The Peace Forum was thus yet another military charade, a venue for insincere performances of peace talk to entertain the Myanmar military leadership as they wage a savage war against their own people. Most of the Western embassies were invited weeks prior, but chose to stay away. The SAC pulls off these squalid stunts with regularity, and only the most gormless of opportunists see any merit in them. Back in March, the 'Myanmar Narrative Think Tank' was launched in a lavish ceremony in Naypyidaw, also with many Russian and Asian guests. It, like the Peace Forum, was an entirely vacuous exercise to give some ersatz credibility to planned polls. But the SAC's elections will have no credibility, inside or outside the country, no matter how many gabfests it stages while waging war against a majority of the country's population and barring the party that overwhelmingly won the last two polls. David Scott Mathieson is an independent analyst working on conflict, humanitarian and human rights issues on Myanmar
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First Post
06-05-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Myanmar: Why the junta is so keen for elections
Even though there is no consensus on the proposed 2026 elections with the Ethnic Armed Organisations ready to boycott it, the military junta seems to have direction read more The elections will not just extend limited legitimacy to the regime but also provide an honourable exit to Senior General Hlaing from a situation where the international pressure and push for democracy have only increased. File image/ Reuters The launch of Myanmar Narrative, the official think tank under the State Administration Council (SAC), Ministry of Information, saw non-governmental representation from five countries. India, Russia, Thailand, China and Japan, apart from top officials from the SAC, Tatmadaw and distinguished guests. The quiet city of Naypyidaw came alive with a grand dinner with performances representing the ethnic diversity of Myanmar, followed by a full-day event of panel discussions around the topic Challenges and Opportunities for Myanmar, 2025. With talks of elections taking place early next year even while Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) control vast territory, the most anticipated aspect of the event was Senior General Hlaing's inaugural address. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD I had the opportunity to travel across the country recently. On my field trip, having met all stakeholders, including those aligned with the SAC and the Tatmadaw and those opposing it, the one aspect that was common was that no side believed that the outside world understood the situation in Myanmar. Though, it has to be said that the EAOs and other resistance groups have ' media in exile', like the Irrawaddy in the English language; the SAC has barely any information that is disseminated to a wider audience. The launch of Myanmar Narrative was a special insight into the aspirations for the future of Myanmar, the politics between the EAOs and the SAC and the much-anticipated elections. Myanmar since the coup in 2021 has been in a state of chaos. There has been immense interest in the conflict that has ensued. For the West, the interest has been based on 'restoring democracy', and so has their tacit support for the EAOs; for India, it has been the impact of the conflict on its northeastern borders and its Act East policy, and for China, it has been the safeguarding of its assets in Myanmar, such as the Kyaukphyu port. Apart from the obvious, there is also the illegal drug production and trafficking, the cyberscam industry , critical earth mining, amongst other illegal activities. Though the interests of the international community in Myanmar may be different, the one aspect of the chaos that is common for all is the importance of the elections and restoration of democracy. Even for the Tatmadaw, contrary to public perception, the election is a necessary next step. For India, a disintegrated Myanmar would spell disaster, with multiple EAOs controlling territory, highways and key trade routes; negotiating would be a hard task and a diplomatic nightmare with the SAC. The disintegration would also mean further migration and the spillover of the conflict in our northeastern borders. In the case of China, Beijing has been advocating for the restoration of democracy in order to primarily limit Western influence. Additionally, the Chinese realise that by pushing for early elections, the current regime's legitimacy will increase internationally, resulting in some stability. China's border trade and infrastructure projects are heavily reliant on a stable Myanmar. Most importantly, it also showcases to the world the increasing influence of China in Myanmar. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The US perhaps is inconsiderate of the unity of Myanmar and prioritises the removal of the current regime. The relationship between the junta and the US has been strained at the very least. Furthermore, the US wants to counter China, maybe even India, by gaining favour with the EAOs on the plank of restoring 'real democracy' and separating the junta from politics. A nearly impossible task in the near future, considering the 2008 Constitution of Myanmar guarantees 25 per cent of the parliamentary seats to the military junta. Even though there is no consensus on the proposed elections with the EAOs ready to boycott it, the military junta seems to have direction. Senior General Hlaing, at the launch of Myanmar Narrative, spoke extensively on his proposed plan for the country. Abandoning his written speech, he spoke extempore, highlighting time and again for over forty minutes of his speech the importance of elections for Myanmar. He spoke about increased contact with the global community and the opportunities it would provide for Myanmar, improving the image of the country. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD However, the senior general also stressed the ongoing conflict within the country. He repeated that ' without unity, we cannot have a peaceful nation', and with external interference, it had been difficult to achieve the ideal situation. While he stated that he accepts that a multi-party democratic system would be best suited for Myanmar, based on democracy and federalism, it would not be possible without peace. In his speech , he envisioned an independent foreign policy in an emerging new world order. He suggested that countries like India, Russia and China were challenging the domination of superblocks, and in the future it would be the regional blocks that would be important for Myanmar. Senior Gen Hlaing spoke of his plan for the economy and technology and for education, emphasising the fact that an abysmal 30 per cent of students pass examinations for industrialised agriculture, amongst other areas, but he stressed the importance of stability for any achievement in the future. The caveat that was repeated throughout the speech was 'peace'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD For the SAC and the Tatmadaw, the Myanmar Narrative is a big step forward. Known to be highly secretive, they seemed to have somewhat relented to the idea that in a world where information is key to perception building, outreach is important. However, with the possibility of elections being fought only in 110 townships out of 330 townships, the elections are already being criticised by the EAOs as well as the National Unity Government (NUG) as a sham. Before the massive 7.7 magnitude earthquake that hit the Southeast Asian nation on March 28, 2025, there were expectations that the Tatmadaw would push to bring more territory under its control. However, after the earthquake it seems unlikely even though the offensive against the EAOs continues. Any further action that affects civilians on the ground could jeopardise the SAC's future ambitions as well as further alienate the international community. The elections which are slated for early 2026 will in all likelihood take place irrespective of the protests by EAOs and the NUG. It will not just extend limited legitimacy to the SAC but also provide an honourable exit to Senior General Hlaing from a situation where the international pressure and push for democracy have only increased. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Additionally, the chances are that the nationalist, Tatmadaw-backed United Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) will come to power. The USDP was founded by former Prime Minister Thein Sein to fight the 2010 general elections and has been one of the two major political parties in Myanmar, the other being Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD). However, the NLD refused to comply with the party registration laws. Tun Myint, the secretary of the Yangon region executive committee, had said that NLD would not register with any election authorities as they had been established by the 'illegitimate military council'. This has left the NLD out of the impending elections. Myanmar is in the middle of a major churn. The elections will be a turning point. Bringing some stakeholders closer and alienating some even further. While Senior General Hlaing hopes for 'stability' and 'peace', the chances are that he will have to go ahead with the elections irrespective of the situation. Having met various EAOs on my field trip, what is certain is that they are ready to continue the fight and won't relent until the 2008 constitution is dissolved. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Stability and peace are not going to be easily achievable under the circumstances; the chaos will continue. In the conflict where both sides claim to be fighting for the people, the civilians will continue to suffer, and like all conflicts today, expect no decisive winners. Rami Niranjan Desai is an anthropologist and a scholar of the northeast region of India. She is a columnist and author and presently Distinguished Fellow at India Foundation, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.
